The Washington Region s Housing Market and Outlook
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1 The Washington Region s Housing Market and Outlook John McClain, AICP Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis, School of Public Policy George Mason University January 14, 2009
2 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: % Forecast > > > > > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight
3 % GDP Percent Change (Real Dollars)
4 CURRENT CONDITIONS
5 ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Non-Mfg Mfg
6 Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Dec = Mil Source: BLS Establishment Survey
7 Annual Change in Employed - U.S. THOUSANDS Dec = Mil Source: BLS Household Survey
8 Initial Unemployment Claims Thousands (4-week moving average) 350
9 U.S. Unemployment Rate % Dec = 7.2 % Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
10 $/barrel Oil Prices $ per barrel Source: Global Insight
11 (000s) Housing Trends: New & Existing Home Sales (000s) Existing (left scale) New (Rt Scale)
12 Consumer Confidence Present Situation 100 Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 The Washington Economy
14 Key Questions What s driving the Washington area economy? How vulnerable are these drivers to US/Global economic forces? What makes the Washington area economy different from other metropolitan economies? Will these differences protect the local economy or worsen the slowdown in 2009?
15 US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP
16 U.S and Washington Area Recent Recessions U.S. Washington Area GRP Change 3/01-11/01 (8) 2.5 % 7/90-3/91 (8) 0.2 % 7/81-11/82 (16) 3.1 % 1/80-7/80 (6) 2.3 %
17 Total Federal Spending Washington Metro Area $ Billions Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
18 Federal Spending by Type Billions Current $ Procurement Wages & Salaries All Other Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Eagle Eye, Inc.
19 Annual Change in Federal Procurement Spending Washington Metro Area $ Billions 2009 Est. = + $2.4 B Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Eagle Eye, Inc.
20 Annual Change in Jobs Washington Metro Thousands Avg = 46,600 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
21 000s Annual Job Change Washington Metro Area Annual Change Annual Month-over-the-Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 46.6 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Nov. 07 Nov Thousands Washington + 31,100 Ranked by Total Jobs
23 Percent Change in Jobs By Sector U.S and Washington MSA Last 12 Months % Source: BLS and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
24 (Ranked by Size of Sector) Prof & Bus Svc Federal Educ & Hlth Svc St & Loc Gov Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp Const Other Svc Financial Information Mfg Wlse Trade Transp & Util Nov Nov Job Change By Sector MSA (000s) Total = 31,
25 Unemployment Rate % U.S. WASHINGTON Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
26 10 % Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate November 2008 U.S. 6.5 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Data not seasonally adjusted
27 The Washington Housing Market
28
29 Where is the Housing Market? Inventory/Supply Prices Foreclosures
30 Sales and Total Active Listings Washington MSA, December Each Year 1000s Listings Sales
31 % Units Sold Percent Change By Subregion All Housing Types NVA MSA SMD DC Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
32 Total Active Listings Per Sale December Each Year PW FFX LDN MONT DC ARL
33 Total Existing Units Sold Washington Metro Area Avg. = 86, Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
34 New Housing Units Sold Washington Metro Area Avg. = 18, Source: Hanley-Wood, GMU Center for Regional Analysis * Annualized
35 Building Permits Washington MSA Avg. = 33, Source: US Census, GMU Center for Regional Analysis * Annualized
36 Housing Prices
37 Housing Price Index Trends U.S. and Washington Metro Area Both Series Indexed to 1976 = 100 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (OFHEO) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis Conforming Loans Only
38 Housing Price Index Annual Change U.S. and Washington Metro Area % Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (OFHEO) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis Conforming Loans Only
39 Metro Comparisons Percent Change in House Prices (October) % WASHINGTON Single-Family Same Unit Sales Source: Case-Schiller, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
40 Metro Comparisons Percent Change in House Prices (October) % WASHINGTON Single-Family Same Unit Sales Source: Case-Schiller, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
41 % Housing Price Index Annual % Change Washington MSA 3 rd Quarter Each Year 1995 Q1 = 100 Conforming Mortgages Only 32-Yr = 6.4% Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
42 $ Average Sales Price All Housing Types Washington Metro %/year Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
43 $ Average Sales Price Single-Family Detached Washington Metro -19.6% Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
44 $ Average Sales Price Single-Family Attached / Townhouse Washington Metro -21.6% Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
45 $ Average Sales Price Condominiums Washington Metro -8.0 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
46 % New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate Washington MSA All Housing Types Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Source: Hanley-Wood, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
47 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
48 % of Sales at Price < $400,000 NVAR (Arl., Alex., Fairfax) % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
49 Annual Price Changes by Jurisdiction Area 2007 Price 2008 Price Change % Change Dist. Of Columbia $537,400 $543,500 + $6, % Arlington $559,000 $539,300 - $19, % Alexandria $502,900 $471,200 - $31, % Montgomery $550,200 $503,900 - $46, % Prince George s $331,100 $290,200 - $40, % Fairfax $542,000 $445,900 - $96, % Loudoun $516,800 $389,000 - $127, % Prince William $395,000 $257,900 - $137, % MD SUBURBS $435,800 $400,400 - $35, % VA SUBURBS $488,300 $373,200 - $115, % METRO AREA $468,700 $394,700 - $74, % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
50
51 Metro Comparisons Mortgage Foreclosure Rates Q Foreclosures /10,000 Owner-Occupied Units Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
52 Foreclosure Rate by Quarter Washington Metro Area Foreclosures/10,000 owner-occupied units Source: RealtyTrac and GMU Center for Regional Analysis
53 Mortgage Foreclosure Rates by County Jan 08 & Jan 09 Foreclosures /10,000 units Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
54
55
56
57 Feb 2008 Richmond Fed Reserve Data Alt-A Loan Numbers
58 Outlook
59
60 THE OUTLOOK SUPPLY / INVENTORY All indicators are in the positive direction, it will just take some time to work through PRICES Market norms will return depending on geographic area close in areas now/soon Beltway areas mid-late 2009 outer jurisdictions into 2010 FORECLOSURES Subprime part of the problem ending soon Alt A and Option Arm issues are looming and need to be addressed there is time.
61 % Economic Outlook (GRP) 2013 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
62 Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 46,600 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
63 GDP/GRP % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
64
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