2010 VACo Achievement Award Nomination

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1 2010 VACo Achievement Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process Accurate, Multi-Year, Revenue Forecasting During Recessionary Times

2 Prince William County Framework Financial and Program Planning Ordinance Multi-year revenue projections and CIP Annual budget with service levels Strategic Plan Principles of Sound Financial Management Quarterly Reporting (revenues and expenditures) Balanced Five-Year Fiscal Plan County/School Revenue Agreement 2 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

3 Single Year Forecasting vs 5-Year Forecasting V I S A B I L I T Y 3 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

4 Limited View With One-Year Forecast How comfortable would you be driving your car with this level of limited visibility? 4 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

5 Multi-Year Forecasting Can Help Plan for Issues You Might Not Expect 5 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

6 Fiscal Planning Process Calendar BOCS Financial Retreat Revenue Committee Meetings Revenue Policy Guidance September/October November November/December Prelim. Forecast Approved by Revenue Committee Proposed Fiscal Plan/Revenue Forecast Budget Worksessions December late February March Final Revenue Forecast Budget Public Hearings Budget Adoption late March/early April April late April 6 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

7 Tax Policy It Isn t About the Tax Rate $ $ $ $ $1.23 $ PW w/ fire levy Prince William $ Base $ Fire Levy $ Loudoun $ $ $1.110 $ Fairfax $ $0.998 $ Alexandria $ Arlington $ $ FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 PW w/ Fire Levy Fairfax Arlington Alexandria Loudoun 7 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

8 It s About the Average Residential Tax Bill (FY2011 at $1.236) $5,000 $4,500 $4,755 - Arlington $4,714 - Fairfax $4,603 - Loudoun $4,380 - Alexandria $4,000 $3,500 $3,281 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $2,407 $2,006 - Alexandria $1,949 - Loudoun $1,941 - Prince William $1,910 - Arlington Prince William Fairfax Arlington Loudoun Alexandria Prince William: $3,091 - Base $190 - Fire Levy Avg Tax Bill of Other Jurisdictions: $4,613 PWC Real Estate Tax Bill $1,332 or 28.9% Lower than the Avg. of the Other Jurisdictions FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 8 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

9 and What is Affordable for Citizens - FY2011 Avg. Residential Tax Bill as a % of 2008 Median Household Income 5.5% 5.0% 4.7% 5.1% 4.5% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0% $88,724 $107,448 $101,171 $111,925 $86, % 2.0% Prince William Fairfax Arlington Loudoun Alexandria Median Household Income Source: U S Census Bureau AmericanFactFinder 2008 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimate 9 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

10 Revenues and Budgeting Revenue/Tax Policy Budgeting = How to spend the Revenues Strategic Goals Comprehensive Plan Levels of Service Your Budget is Only as Good as Your Revenue Estimate 10 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

11 Internal and External Partners in Developing a Revenue Forecast State Economists Association of Realtors Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Local Builders Industry Assoc. FINANCE STAFF Commercial Real Estate Brokers Auto Industry Budget Development Services Economic Development Planning Public Works Schools Retail Industry 11 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

12 Develop A Process To Become Knowledgeable About Local, State and National Economic Trends 12 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

13 The Easiest Forecast..... When Data is On Trend It Tends to Stay on Trend Until There is A Reason Not To Ask the Key Questions. Why is this trending metric doing what it s doing? Example: Housing /6 Low Interest Rates Easy Credit Flexible Terms Expanding Economy Will anything change to affect this trend? 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 7.60% Avg. Annual Real Estate Appreciation 17.47% 17.44% 18.30% 22.98% 27.20% 0% CY00, FY02 CY01, FY03 CY02, FY04 CY03, FY05 CY04, FY06 CY05, FY07 CY of Value, FY of Revenue 13 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

14 The Experts Don t Always Get It Right Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust Fed Nominee Has Said 'Cooling' Won't Hurt By Nell HendersonWashington Post Staff Writer Thursday, October 27, 2005 Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, Ben S. Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill just before being nominated to succeed Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. (By Ron Edmonds -- Associated Press) TOOLBOX 14 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

15 The Hardest Forecast. Deviation from Trend and/or Rapidly Changing Metrics Play Havoc with Forecasting Forecast Transient Occupancy after 9-11 Forecast Auto Sales after credit collapse Forecast Investment Income (interest rates) after the Lehman bankruptcy Forecast Retail Sales after area sniper homicides 15 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

16 Identify The Revenue Sources 7 Major Revenue Sources Real Estate Taxes Provides more than 65% of County general revenue Personal Property Taxes Next largest source of County general revenue at 16% Local Sales Tax Revenue Consumer Utility Tax Communications Sales and Use Tax Business Professional and Occupational License (BPOL) Investment Income 16 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

17 More Revenue Sources Sources > $1.5 Million Interest on Taxes Motor Vehicle License Fee Recordation Tax Tax on Deeds Cable Franchise Tax Sources < $1.5 Million 13 Smaller Revenue Items Such As: Transient Occupancy Tax Bank Franchise Tax Daily Rental Equipment Tax Mobile Home Titling Tax; et. al. 17 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

18 Revenue Drivers Feed the Revenue Model Output Component Revenue Estimates Input Drivers 18 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

19 Example: Real Estate Revenue Drivers Equalization (change in value of existing properties) Residential Commercial (retail, office, industrial, special use) Apartments Agricultural Growth (new value added through construction) New Residential Units Constructed Value of New Residential Units Square Footage of New Commercial Construction Completed Value of New Construction per Square Foot 19 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

20 A Few Words About the Assessment Calendar FY 2011 CY VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

21 Factors Impacting Residential Revenue Drivers Foreclosures Number of Foreclosures Foreclosures Net Bank Sales Avg. Bank Sales Price as % of Avg. Assessed Value Real Estate Market Metrics Average Sales Price Average Number of Days on the Market Ratio of Active Listings to Sales (Months of Inventory) External Factors 30-Year Mortgage Rates $8,000 Federal Tax Credit and Loan Modification Programs 21 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

22 Real Estate Dashboard Change in Average Monthly Sales Ratio Bank Sales Price vs. Assessed Values Sales Volume Foreclosures Inventory of Foreclosed Homes Bank Sales Real Estate Market Metrics MRIS) Number of Days on Market Inventory to Sales Ratio 22 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

23 Change in Average Monthly Sales Ratio Residential Sale Prices Compared to Assessed Values 180% 2005 Avg. Ratio 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 85.5% 83.3% 80.6% 78.0% 76.7% 74.3% 73.2% 72.3% 71.6% 71.3% 72.0% 72.4% Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 23 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

24 Change in Average Monthly Sales Ratio Residential Sale Prices Compared to Assessed Values 180% 160% 2005 Avg. Ratio 2006 Avg. Ratio 2007 Avg. Ratio 140% 120% 116.0% 112.5% 100% 97.9% 93.2% 97.7% 92.9% 97.7% 91.9% 98.4% 91.7% 99.1% 92.9% 100.3% 93.3% 101.0% 95.1% 103.6% 105.2% 107.1% 95.8% 97.7% 98.1% 100.1% 102.1% 80% 85.5% 83.3% 80.6% 78.0% 76.7% 74.3% 73.2% 72.3% 71.6% 71.3% 72.0% 72.4% 60% Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 24 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

25 Change in Average Monthly Sales Ratio Residential Sale Prices Compared to Assessed Values 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 109.2% 97.9% 93.2% 85.5% 2005 Avg. Ratio 2006 Avg. Ratio 2007 Avg. Ratio 2008 Avg. Ratio 113.1% 97.7% 92.9% 83.3% 117.3% 97.7% 91.9% 80.6% 124.5% 98.4% 91.7% 78.0% 128.8% 99.1% 92.9% 76.7% 131.8% 100.3% 93.3% 74.3% 139.8% 101.0% 95.1% 73.2% 144.7% 103.6% 95.8% 97.7% 98.1% 72.3% 149.6% 105.2% 107.1% 71.6% 158.9% 71.3% 166.8% 116.0% 112.5% 100.1% 102.1% 72.0% 169.6% 72.4% 60% Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 25 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

26 Review What Happened in Most Recent Year Completed - Single Family Bank Sales 2008 Monthly Avg. Sale Price vs. Avg. Assessed Value $400,000 $380,000 $360,000 $340,000 $320,000 $300,000 $280,000 $384,225 $333,840 $376,546 $313,294 $377,666 $320,940 $290,089 $366,346 $356,566 $364,600 $366,183 $346,016 $357,540 $274,508 $346,053 $353, % reduction between average assessed value and average sales price during calendar year 2008 $353,639 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $264,603 This is why assessed values declined 29.8%, on average, in calendar year 2008 (FY2010 revenue)! JAN. FEB. MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE Bank Sales $257,488 JULY $253,013 $242,783 $237,001 $231,924 $226, VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process AUG. Assessed Value SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

27 Examine Recent Trends History of PWC Annual Residential Appreciation 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% CY80-09 Average Residential Appreciation Actual Residential Appreciation: Actual Ave. 4.5% Inflation Rate, Annual Ave. 3.5% 22.98% 17.47% 18.30% 17.44% 7.60% 27.20% -3.83% % % CY80, FY82 CY82, FY84 CY84, FY86 CY86, FY88 CY88, FY90 CY90, FY92 CY92, FY94 CY94, FY96 CY96, FY98 CY98, FY00 CY00, FY02 CY02, FY04 CY04, FY06 CY06, FY08 CY08, FY10 CY of Value, FY of Revenue 27 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

28 Change in Average Monthly Sales Ratio Residential Sale Prices Compared to Assessed Values 180% 160% 140% 120% 109.2% 2005 Avg. Ratio 2008 Avg. Ratio 2009 Avg. Ratio 113.1% 117.3% 124.5% 128.8% 131.8% 139.8% 144.7% 149.6% 158.9% 166.8% 169.6% CY % 99.7% 103.1% 102.0% 101.8% 100.0% 96.7% 96.8% CY % 94.7% 94.5% 91.7% 91.8% 80% CY % Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 28 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

29 Single Family Bank Sales 2009 Monthly Avg. Sale Price vs. Avg. Assessed Value $290,000 $280,000 $270,000 $260,000 $250,000 $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 $210,000 $264,555 $263,547 $239,594 $237,530 $236,742 $229,595 $224,658 $233,274 $232,399 $231,459 $226,048 $219,118 $254,315 $253,849 $275,071 $286,789 $268,148 $264,852 $266,853 $261,937 Average price of bank sales surpasses the average Jan. 1, 2009 assessed value of those properties! $257,617 $281,226 $270,410 $260,684 $200,000 JAN. FEB. MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE Bank Sales JULY AUG. Assessed Value SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 29 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

30 Foreclosures Decreased 46.7% in 2009 Compared to Total: Total: 2, Total: 6, Total: 3, JAN. FEB. MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. 30 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

31 Inventory of Foreclosed Homes 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Current Estimated Balance through Dec. 2009: 2,590 Nearly 13,000 foreclosures in but banks are selling their inventories! 1,414 1,748 2,263 2,734 3,022 2,958 3,164 2,802 2,590 2,651 2,465 2,418 2,348 2,213 2,151 1, , Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

32 Bank Sales Dominated the Market - Bank Sales & Short Sales as % of Total Sales Increase in CY2008 from 53% in January to 88% in December 100.0% 90.0% 87% 88% 80.0% 78% 78% 80% 84% 70.0% 72% 73% 72% 63% 60.0% 59% 53% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

33 Bank Sales & Short Sales as % of Total Sales Declined in CY2009 from 84% in January to 40% in December 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 84% 59% 85% 63% 77% 72% 77% 73% 72% 78% 72% 66% 63% 78% 61% 80% 65% 84% 66% 87% 88% 53% 52% 50.0% 40.0% 40% 30.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

34 Monthly Residential Sales Volume Includes Bank Sales and Short Sales 1, Sales Decreased 11% from 2008 Sales 68% of 2009 Sales were bank sales or short sales - down from nearly 77% in Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

35 Real Estate Market Metrics Average Number of Days on Market Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

36 20 18 Real Estate Market Metrics Ratio of Monthly Active Listings to Sales Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

37 Real Estate Market Cycles and Status of PWC Markets Real Estate Market Cycle Quadrants Phase Phase II II --Expansion Increasing Demand Declining Vacancy New Construction Phase Phase III III --Hypersupply Falling Demand Increasing Vacancy New Construction Residential Phase Phase I I --Recovery Increasing Demand Declining Vacancy No New Construction Increasing Vacancy More Completions High Inventory Phase Phase IV IV --Recession Apartments Commercial Source: Mueller, Real Estate Finance, VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

38 What Did The Experts (Prince William Association of Realtors) Tell the Revenue Committee? We don t have enough product to sell. Low inventories of homes for sale is a problem as banks are not foreclosing at 2008 rates. Inventory of homes for sale decreased from 5,900 homes to approximately 1,200 homes. Foreclosed properties remain a huge part of inventory. There is no secondary market for loans financing $700,000 homes. Banks requiring 30% equity and mortgage rates are 100 basis points higher than conventional loans. Low home appraisals are not instilling confidence in existing homeowners (many are underwater in their mortgages) to move up in the market. 38 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

39 History of Residential Real Estate Appreciation 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% CY80-10 Average, Annual Residential Real Estate Appreciation is 4.4% Actual Residential Appreciation: Actual Ave. 4.4%, with Forecast, 4.2% Inflation Rate, Annual Ave. 3.5% FY11-15 Forecast 27.20% 22.98% 17.47% 18.30% 17.44% 4.00% 7.60% 2.00% 3.00% 0.45% 1.00% -3.83% % % CY80, FY82 CY82, FY84 CY84, FY86 CY86, FY88 CY88, FY90 CY90, FY92 CY92, FY94 CY94, FY96 CY96, FY98 CY98, FY00 CY00, FY02 CY02, FY04 CY04, FY06 CY06, FY08 CY08, FY10 CY10, FY12 CY12, FY14 CY of Value, FY of Revenue 39 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

40 Other Revenue Categories and Related Drivers Personal Property Tax Average Value of Vehicles Located in the County Number of Additional Vehicles Entering the County Business Equipment Replacement During a Recession Sales Tax Trends Population growth Inflation Investment Income Federal Funds Target Interest Rate Ten-Year Treasury Interest Rate Growth of County Investment Portfolio (Tied to Tax Policy) Expected Movement of Short and Long-Term Interest Rates 40 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

41 Personal Property Tax Value Changes of Common Vehicles (2008 Market Activity) Sedans and Hybrids Tax Fiscal Toyota Nissan Honda Toyota Ford Year Year Camry Altima Accord Prius Focus Average % -3.7% -4.5% -14.1% -25.2% -10.7% % -20.6% -12.7% -7.1% -12.8% -13.2% % -19.5% -16.8% -14.6% -11.3% -14.2% % -13.6% -11.2% -3.6% -14.3% -11.5% Trucks and Sport Utility Vehicles Tax Fiscal Toyota Dodge GMC Ford Ford Year Year 4Runner Caravan Yukon Explorer F150 Average % -18.0% -17.2% -26.9% -20.8% -18.9% % -21.7% -21.5% -18.8% -17.3% -18.2% % -14.0% -10.1% -8.3% -7.6% -9.3% % -30.7% -33.5% -36.4% -24.8% -31.1% 41 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

42 Personal Property Tax Value Changes of Common Vehicles (2009 Market Activity) Sedans and Hybrids Honda Nissan Toyota Toyota Ford Honda Toyota Civic LX Altima S Camry LE Corolla CE Mustang Civic Hybrid Prius Model Value Value Value Value Value Value Value Year % Change % Change % Change % Change % Change % Change % Change % % % % -6.61% % % % % % -6.80% % % % % % % -7.85% % % % % % % -9.47% % % % % % % % % % Trucks and Sport Utility Vehicles Honda Nissan Toyota Toyota Toyota Ford Ford Odyssey EX Pathfinder Highlander 4Runner Sienna Explorer XLT F150 Super Model Value Value Value Value Value Value Value Year % Change % Change % Change % Change % Change % Change % Change % 20.63% 5.01% 10.36% 1.97% 10.14% 16.90% % 17.57% 16.29% 14.99% 13.53% 15.19% 22.45% % 18.20% 14.63% 16.77% 14.14% 17.53% 19.06% % 8.94% 5.45% 12.52% 7.11% 9.94% 14.95% % 1.06% 1.86% 10.96% 6.81% 8.56% 14.52% Reflects changes in guide value from January 2009 to November VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

43 Investment Income - History of Fed Funds Target Rate 20.00% 19.00% 18.00% 17.00% 16.00% 15.00% 14.00% 13.00% 12.00% Fed Funds rate less than 0.25% since December % 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% Fed Funds Rate around 1.00% Fed Funds Rate currently less than 0.20% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

44 Investment Income Forecasting: Questions to Ask Yourself What s my portfolio structure? 1-2 year maturities only? Longer maturities? What is the mix? Where s the Interest Rate Curve? Normal Steep Inverted Is my portfolio management active or passive? Do I strategically manage investments? If yes, what are you going to do over the projection period? 44 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

45 Use the Correct Metric PWC typically has 40-50% of its portfolio invested in securities >3 yrs out to 10 yrs We model our projections on longer maturities off of 10-yr treasury yields We model short-term security yields off of shorter-term treasury yields (90, 180, 1 yr) and the money fund index 45 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

46 Mark-to-Market Gains and Losses Municipalities are required to adjust their portfolio value based on the market value of the securities per GASB 31 and record the difference as a gain or loss (for securities with >1 yr. IF you typically hold securities to maturity or seldom if ever sell a security at a loss DO NOT INCLUDE MARK-TO-MARKET GAINS AND LOSSES IN YOUR REVENUE FORECAST 46 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

47 Monetary Base Rises At A Consistent Rate Over Time 47 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

48 or at least it USED to 48 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

49 Ask Questions Do the Experts Opinions Make Sense In the Context of What You Know to be the Facts? 49 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

50 FY General Revenue Forecast (in thousands) Real Estate Tax Rate: $1.212 $1.236 $1.261 $1.286 $1.299 $1.299 % to Total FY2010 (FY2011) Revised Est. FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 Real Estate Taxes 65.96% $476,987 $474,782 $488,675 $517,508 $550,339 $585,887 Personal Property Taxes 16.05% 115, , , , , ,825 Sales Tax 6.26% 44,600 45,050 45,950 47,790 49,700 51,690 Consumer Utility Tax 1.81% 12,780 13,050 13,320 13,650 14,030 14,490 Communications Sales Tax 2.67% 18,700 19,200 19,390 19,780 20,370 20,980 BPOL Tax 2.80% 19,930 20,130 20,530 21,150 21,780 22,650 Investment Income 1.80% 13,250 12,990 16,690 21,490 28,110 32,020 All Other 2.64% 19,592 19,008 19,319 19,911 20,556 21,285 Total General Revenue % $721,224 $719,755 $738,409 $780,494 $829,250 $879,827 Increase over Prior Year -7.17% -0.20% 2.59% 5.70% 6.25% 6.10% School Portion $405,912 $405,476 $416,062 $439,866 $467,450 $496,061 County Portion 310, , , , , ,546 Transportation Fund 4,400 3,890 3,890 3,990 4,110 4,220 Total General Revenues $721,224 $719,755 $738,409 $780,494 $829,250 $879, VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

51 A Wise Man Once Said It s dangerous to make predictions, especially about the future. The future ain t what it use to be. You ve got to be very careful if you don t know where you are going because you might not get there. - Lawrence Yogi Berra 51 VACo Award Nomination Prince William County Revenue Forecasting Process

Multi-Year Budget Planning. Stott Mason & Michael Hurlocker Prince William County

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