FY2018 Preliminary Forecasts December 5, 2016

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1 FY2018 Preliminary Forecasts December 5, 2016 December 5,

2 FY2018 Budget Planning Discussion Capital Funding FY2018 Preliminary Revenue Projection Cost Drivers Schools General Government Illustration Budget Calendar Summary & Key Issues December 5,

3 FY2018 Operating Budget Summary Revenue Growth: 3% projected (Range: 2.5% - 3.5%) $2,441,000 (General Govt and Schools) Expenditure Needs: - Capital Program - PAUG for maintenance, equipment - Reserves for GMHS Project - Operating Needs - WMATA - School Enrollment - Compensation December 5,

4 FY2018 Projections in Region AV growth Total Rev Growth Arlington: 2.1 % N/A Fairfax County: 1.4% 1.6% Falls Church 2.75% 3.0% Low Residential & Commercial AV Growth High Commercial Vacancy rates in both counties Significant Multi-year Drop in Federal Procurement Forum-Presentation pdf December 5,

5 December 5,

6 Real Estate Assessed Value Growth City of Falls Church (Preliminary) Residential: 2.0% increase 1.2% market increase.8% new construction ($15M) Commercial: 4.5% increase 1.75% market increase $30M new construction Overall: 2.75% AV growth December 5,

7 RE Tax Rates in Region 2016 Real Estate Tax Rates TY2016 Extras Comparable Tax Rate Manassas Park City $ $ Purcellville Town Leesburg Town Manassas City Herndon Town Vienna Town Falls Church City Prince William Co Loudoun Co Fairfax County Fairfax City Alexandria City Arlington Co AVERAGE December 5,

8 December 5,

9 Personal Property FY17 Budget: FY17 Actuals To Date: $5.18M $5.45M FY18 Projection: 6% growth December 5,

10 December 5,

11 Sales Taxes FY17 Budget: 12% growth 1 st Quarter: 13% growth over FY16 FY17 growth due to new development FY18 Budget Projection: 3% growth December 5,

12 December 5,

13 Meals Taxes FY17 Budget: 1.2% growth projection FY18 Budget Projection: 3% growth December 5,

14 December 5,

15 Overall Revenue Forecast for FY2018 RE Assessed Value: 2.75% growth Residential: 1.7% growth Commercial: 4.5% growth Other Revenues: 3.3% growth Total Revenue Growth: 3% New Revenue: $2,441,000 December 5,

16 Recent History of Operating General Government* Expenditure Growth 7-YR AVG 5-YR AVG 3-YR AVG 2.2% 4.0% 1.7% School Transfer* 4.8% 7.7% 5.7% *Excludes Debt Service December 5,

17 Known General Gov t Cost Drivers Retirement* $220,000 Health Insurance 270,000 Other Benefits (250,000) WMATA 500,000 PAUG Capital Maintenance 300,000 Total $1,040,000 December 5,

18 WMATA FY17: contribution: $3,034,182 FY18: $500k increase $200k PAUG capital contribution 85% of planned investment already underway $300k operating 10% decrease in revenue 2% increase in costs 15% increase in overall Local Subsidy Plus FY18: $1m in debt financed capital December 5,

19 WMATA FY18 Debt contribution: $1M In addition to $500K State funding possible at around 25% Possible debt service: $131K - $175K CFA for FY2018-FY2023 still in progress WMATA Budget Adoption: March 2017 December 5,

20 General Gov t Cost Drivers Key Budget Drivers Provide competitive compensation Interjurisdictional agreements Unmet Needs ($2.3m identified in FY17) December 5,

21 Student Enrollment Information ACTUAL Student Enrollment: 2, ACTUAL Student Enrollment 2,670 Student Growth from Previous Year % PROJECTED Student Enrollment 2, % ACTUAL Student Enrollment 2, % Number of Students Above Projection % December 5,

22 Grade Class Sizes School Year Actual Students Core Content Teachers Average Class Size FCCPS Policy K TOTAL: 1, December 5,

23 December 5,

24 December 5,

25 School Cost Drivers VRS Retirement $450,500 Health Insurance 439,900 VRS Life Insurance 211,900 City Retirement 34,600 Other Benefits (246,600) Total $890,000 December 5,

26 School Cost Drivers Other Budget Drivers Staff/services to Address Student Enrollment Growth Provide/Maintain Competitive Staff Salaries Ensure Adequate Classroom Materials/Supplies December 5,

27 Illustration No Tax Changes Total Revenue Growth $2,441, % PAUG Capital Maintenance (600,000) Debt Service (120,000) Pension Dividend 143,000 Funds for Operations 1,864, % Known Increases General Gov t 740,000 Schools 890,000 Net Available Funds $ 234,000 December 5,

28 Capital Reserve Funding School Campus Project Plan of Finance Strategic Steps: Begin to build reserves in FY18 Debt Service on GMHS potentially to begin in FY19 Pre-funding at 50% of FY19 projection: $1.6M or 4 cents December 5,

29 Date Budget Calendar Action December 12 Council Budget Guidance January 10 January 30 February 28 March 13 March 27 April 10 April 24 Superintendent s Budget Presentation CIP Presentation to Planning Commission School Board Budget Recommendation City Manager s Budget Presentation First Reading of the Budget Ordinance First Public Hearing of the Budget Ordinance Second Reading, Second Public Hearing and Adoption of the Budget Ordinance December 5,

30 Summary 3% Operating Revenue Growth for FY2018 or $2,441,000 Known cost increases - $2,207,000 Prior to considering any changes to compensation or additional programs. Identified capital needs of $145M are significant challenge to financial capacity Will continue the community discussion on a shared vision for capital program and budget priorities. December 5,

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