Economic Performance and Outlook: Washington Metro Area and Northern Virginia
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1 Economic Performance and Outlook: Washington Metro Area and Northern Virginia Dr. Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University e 22, 215
2 (s) Annual Job Change Washington MSA, Annual Data Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% 15 Largest Job kets Job Change: Washington +.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4 15 Largest Job kets Job Change: Apr 214 Apr % 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% Washington +2.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5 (s) Annual Data Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Apr-15 Total: 362.9
6 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, FY TOTAL = $1,164.9 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov
7 (s) Annual Data Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Apr-15 Total: 719.4
8 WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 28-Feb 21 Feb 21-Apr (s) Total -181 Total Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
9 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Apr 214 Apr 215 Washington MSA (s) Total = 65,6 3 3 (2.) (1.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
10 (s of 214 $s) Average Wage, Washington Metro Area D.C. Region Northern Virginia Suburban yland Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 The Household Income Effects of Structural Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Jurisdiction Median HH Income 213* Change from 29* District (DC) $67,575 $2,919 Frederick Cty 84,38 - $5,856 Montgomery Cty 98,326 - $4,552 Prince George s Cty 72,52 - $4,6 Arlington County 12,51 - $1,675 Fairfax County 111,79 - $249 Loudoun County 116,768 - $7,283 Prince Wm County 95,268 - $2,234 Alexandria City 86,775 $2,985 Total Metro Area $9,149 - $2,287 Source: U.S. Census, ACS 1-Year; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 213 dollars
12 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Apr 214 Apr 215 Northern Virginia (s) Total 23, (2.) (1.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 8
14 Washington MSA Leading Economic Index 1.% Month-Over-Year Percent Change 5.%.% -5.% -1.% 12-Month Moving Average -15.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP (Annual % Change) Washington U.S. -4 Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: January 215
16 Where we are: We are technically growing, but remain a highly specialized economy: No long a leader among major metro areas lining quality of jobs Average wages decreased for three consecutive years 1-13) Local fiscal resources under strain Will impact services, infrastructure, quality of life Federal spending could/should increase as national economy improves, but we need to diversify
17 Thank You cra.gmu.edu
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