Creating Thriving and Sustainable Communities A Community Discussion Growth & Planning
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1 Creating Thriving and Sustainable Communities A Community Discussion Growth & Planning
2 Forecasts Montgomery County s Growth County forecasts: What are they and how were they calculated? Regional growth forecasts Why we forecast growth Managing growth Questioning growth forecasts Source: MNCPPC 2005 Census Update
3 How we forecast growth Master plans, sector plans, zoning. Approved development projects Historical zoning yields Market trends Municipalities Assumptions about: Redevelopment Environmental constraints County growth: past and future
4 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, , to to to to 90 County growth: past and future Forecast growth: declining pace but still substantial 1990 to to 00 Employment 2000 to to to 15 Household Growth Round 7.0 Forecasts 2015 to to to 2030
5 Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission In the next 25 years County growth: past and future we will continue to grow. 170,000 new jobs 94,000 houses 213,800 people Where s the growth going?
6 County s forecast by age All age groups add population but 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 Household Population to 4 5 to to to to
7 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% County s forecast by age only the 65+ age group increases compared to others % of Total Household Population % 0 to 4 5 to to to to
8 Regional forecast Howard County Anne Arundel County
9 Regional forecasts: 2005 to 2030 Montgomery forecast: 2 nd in households, 3 rd in jobs DC Arlington Alexandria Montgomery Prince George's County Fairfax County Loudoun County Prince William Frederick Howard Anne Arundel Jobs Households
10 DC Arlington Alexandria Regional job/household ratio: 2005 to 2030 Montgomery forecasts balance in jobs and housing for 2030 Montgomery Prince George's County Fairfax County Loudoun County Prince William Frederick Balance: 1.5 to 1.6 jobs per household Howard Anne Arundel
11 Regional job/household ratio: 2005 to 2030 MWCOG forecast for Montgomery: 16,000 households over master plans MWCOG Round 7.0: region out of balance (too many forecast jobs). Localities agreed to add housing to forecast to approach balance. Montgomery added 16,000 units.
12
13 Why we forecast growth Forecasting growth Measures cumulative effect of adopted plans and policies Shows best guess of future if trends continue Input for new master plans, budgets & capital programming, and planning service delivery.
14 Managing the pace of growth Permitted growth: combination of what and when What: amount, type and location of development: General Plan Master plans, sector plans When: pace of growth Adequate public facilities ordinance Staging elements in master plans Outside forces: market demand, innovations
15 Forecasts are not destiny Questioning growth Forecasts are based on adopted plans, current trends, assumptions about the future. Changing any of these will change the forecast.
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