The U. S. Economy: Current Performance and Outlook
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1 9// D.C. Institutional Investor Conference The Outlook for the U.S., Washington Area and District of Columbia Economies Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor George Mason University tember, The U. S. Economy: Current Performance and Outlook GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2 9// 3 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP* 3 98-Q3 99-Q -Q 9-Q *in 99 or 9 Chained Dollars Quarters After Trough Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3 3 ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Mfg N-Mfg Source: Institute for Supply Management GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3 9// (s) Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month-Over-Year Aug = +.9M U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Aug Aug Ranked by Size in Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Information Federal Govt. (s) Total =, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 9// U.S. Unemployment Rate % Aug =. IHS FCST Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics tember Consumer Confidence 8 Expectations Current Situation Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug-3 Aug- Aug- Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5 9// $/barrel 8 Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > Source: IHS Economics tember 3 - % Consumer Prices - Forecast > > > Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics tember GMU Center for Regional Analysis
6 9// Interest Rates - 8 Forecast > > > 7 3-Yr -Yr Treas Fed Source: IHS Economics tember % Growth in Total Consumption Outlays Forecast > > > > Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics tember GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 9// % U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 7 Forecast Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics tember The Washington Economy: Recession, Sequester, Repositioning and Expansion GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 9// Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business. % Other Federal.7 % Local Serving Activities 3.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries.% Procurement 9.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 8-Feb Feb -Aug (s) Total -8 Total GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 9// The GRP* Effects of Private Sector Job Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Aug 8-August (in $s) Job Change Total GRP Value - 8,3 - $9,,, + 8, + $9,8,7, +,3 + $8,8, Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product $, per job contribution to GRP $,3 per job contribution to GRP (s of $s) 7 Average Wage in the Washington Metro Area, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 9// (s) 8 8 Largest Job kets Job Change: Aug Aug Washington +, Largest Job kets Job Change: Aug Aug.% 3.% 3.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Washington +.% GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 9// Annual Job Change Washington MSA, - Annual Data (s) Annual Month over Year Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug Aug Washington MSA (s) Total =, 3 (.) (.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 9// (s) Annual Data Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Month over Year Aug- Total: Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Aug- Total: 3. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 9// (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change District of Columbia, - Annual Month over Year 3 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug Aug District of Columbia - (s) Total,3 (.) (.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
14 9// (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Suburban yland, - Annual Month over Year 3 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug Aug Suburban yland - - (s) Total 9, 3 (.) (.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 9// Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, - (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug Aug Northern Virginia - (s) Total 3, 3 3 (.) (.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
16 9// Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC.3 U.S..8 SMD. MSA NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area: 3- GMU Center for Regional Analysis
17 9// Washington Metropolitan Area and U.S. Economic Growth, 3- (annual percent real change) Year U.S. WMSA Sources: IHS Economics, Inc. tember ; GMU Center for Regional Analysis % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 7 (Annual % Change) U.S. - Washington - Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: tember GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
18 9// % Economic Outlook (GRP), 7- Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV SM MSA DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: tember Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) 3 * D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change 99- = 3, Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (August ); *estimated based on first half-year performance. NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
19 9// Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business. % Local Serving Activities 3.8% Other Federal.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries.% Total Federal 39.8% Procurement 9.% Non-Local Business 7. % Local Serving Activities 38.3% Other Federal 7.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 7.% Total Federal 8.8% Procurement.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
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