Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends August, 2008

Transcription

1 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends August, 2008 Prepared by: Economic Research Division October 7,

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3 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 1 August Economic Trends A weak trend continued among local business activity indicators in August as only five of 20 August indicators registered improvement from year-ago levels, according to a report by the (MMAC). August s five improvements rank lower than the six improved indicators posted for July and continue a nearly year long trend (since November, 2007) in which less than half of indicators tracked have pointed upward. The events of the past couple weeks do not bode well for any short term improvement in metro area economic activity, said Bret Mayborne, economic research director for the MMAC. It is more probable that this weak overall economic trend will continue through the remainder of 2008 and into 2009 s first quarter. Highlights of the report include: The rate of job decline for the metro area grew larger in August. Employment fell at a 0.9% pace in August, up from the 0.4% decline recorded in July (vs. one year ago). The net loss in jobs over the August, 2008 to August, 2007 period totaled 7,700. Three of ten major industry sectors registered August job gains (vs. one year ago), while seven posted declines. The largest percentage increase was posted in the government sector (up 4.6% over year-ago levels). Conversely, a 3.7% job decline was posted both in the construction, mining & natural resources and leisure & hospitality sectors the largest decreases registered. Passenger activity levels at Mitchell International Airport rose for the 17th consecutive month vs. year ago levels. Passenger totals rose 7% in August, to 790,284. Metro area unemployment indicators sent mixed signals. A small 0.2% decline (vs. August, 2007) was posted in the number of unemployed (to 41,900), this indicator s fifth consecutive year-over-year fall. On the other hand, new unemployment compensation claims rose for the sixth consecutive month vs. year-ago levels, up 19% in August, to 6,005. Metro Milwaukee s seasonally unadjusted jobless rate rose modestly in August. The month s 5.3% rate is higher the than the 5.2% rate recorded last year at this time. The current rate ranks higher than the state s 4.7% rate but lower than the 6.1% rate posted nationally. Indicators: August, 2008 vs. August, 2007 Nonfarm employment in the metro area fell at a 0.9% pace in August, to 853,900. August s decline registered higher than both the 0.4% drop posted in July and the 0.5% average fall recorded for 2008 s first eight months. Metro area employment increases for August were posted in three of ten major industry sectors. Employment in the government sector rose at a 4.6% pace, to 88,600, this month s strongest gain vs. year-ago levels among major industry sectors. The educational & health services (up 0.8%), and other service (up 0.5%) sectors also registered job increases. Seven major industry sectors registered job declines in August. The largest percentage decreases were registered in the construction, mining & natural resources and leisure & hospitality sectors, both posting 3.7% declines. Employment decreases were also posted in the trade, transportation

4 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 2 & utilities (down 2.4%), information (down 2.3%), manufacturing (down 1.9%), financial activities (down 1.4%), and professional & business services (down 1.1%) sectors. A weak trend continues in local area housing and real estate indicators. Existing home sales in the metro area fell at a 19.6% pace (to 1,155), after posting an 8.8% fall in July (vs. July, 2007). Mortgages recorded in Milwaukee County fell at a 40.8% pace (to 2,954) in August, this indicator s 22nd consecutive month of year-over-year decline and the largest such decrease posted during this period. Strong passenger growth continues at Mitchell International Airport. Air passenger numbers rose 7% in August to 790,284, after rising 11.5% in July (vs. July, 2007). Cumulative totals for the year s first eight months show passenger activity up 9.4% over the same period in New-car registrations fell sharply in August. Registrations fell 23% in August to 2,880, the strongest year-over-year decline posted over 2008 s first eight months. Other Indicators (latest available) The value of signed construction contracts, as reported by F.W. Dodge for July, was $174.9 million, up 18.7% from July, Consumer prices nationally, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U), rose 5.4% in August (vs. August, 2007) to ( = 100). The Milwaukee area CPI-U reached for the first half of 2008, a 4.8% increase from 2007's first half. Note: Three monthly indicators regularly tracked by the MMAC average weekly hours, average weekly earnings and average hourly earnings for manufacturing production workers were unavailable in January, 2008 and will no longer be available in future reports due to budget cuts at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the source for these indicators. For Further information contact: Bret J. Mayborne Economic Research Director

5 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 3 Metropolitan Milwaukee Business Indicators August, 2008 % chg. % chg. % chg. Current Previous Year from prev. year to Month month month ago yr. ago month date (1) ESTABLISHMENT DATA Total nonfarm payroll employment (000) Aug % 0.0% -0.5% Construction, mining & natural res. (000) Aug % 0.5% -3.0% Manufacturing (000) Aug % 0.0% -1.8% Trade, transportation, & utilities (000) Aug % 0.0% -2.1% Information (000) Aug % -0.6% -1.2% Financial activities (000) Aug % -0.2% -0.9% Professional & business services (000) Aug % 0.2% -0.7% Educational & health services (000) Aug % -0.2% 1.6% Leisure & hospitality (000) Aug % -1.8% -0.1% Other service, exc. public (000) Aug % -0.2% 0.5% Government (000) Aug % 1.5% 1.6% LABOR FORCE DATA Civilan labor force (000) Aug % -0.1% -1.1% Employed (000) Aug % -0.1% -0.9% Unemployed (000) Aug % 0.7% -4.4% Unemployment rate Metro Milwaukee Aug % 5.2% 5.2% 0.1(4) 0.1(4) -0.2(4) Wisconsin Aug % 4.8% 4.7% 0.0(4) -0.1(4) -0.2(4) United States Aug % 6.0% 4.6% 1.5(4) 0.1(4) 0.8(4) New unemployment compensation claims Aug-08 6,005 10,952 5, % -45.2% 12.8% HOURS & EARNINGS (mfg. production workers) Avg. weekly hours (manuf.) Aug-08 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Avg. weekly earnings (2) Aug-08 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Avg. hourly earnings (2) Aug-08 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. HOUSING & REAL ESTATE Existing homes sold Aug-08 1,155 1,207 1, % -4.3% -20.8% Mortgages (number) (3) Aug-08 2,954 3,557 4, % -17.0% -25.8% TRANSPORTATION Airport passengers Aug , , , % -3.8% 9.4% New-car registrations Aug-08 2,880 3,420 3, % -15.8% -7.6% OTHER INDICATORS (latest available) Construction contracts ($000) (2) Jul , , , % 47.9% 3.2% Consumer price index ( =100) Milwaukee (CPI-U) 1stH % 3.3% 4.8% United States (CPI-U) Aug % -0.4% 4.6% Notes: (1) The average or cumulative figure year to date vs. the same total one year ago. (2) Not adjusted for inflation. (3) Milwaukee County only. (4) Percentage point change. Figures are not seasonally adjusted except where indicated (SA). Metro area includes Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington & Waukesha counties except where indicated. Sources: Wisconsin Dept. of Workforce Development, Multiple Listing Service, Milwaukee County Register of Deeds Office, Mitchell International Airport, Wisconsin Dept. of Transportation, F. W. Dodge, and U.S. Dept. of Labor. For further information contact Bret J. Mayborne, economic research director,

6 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 4 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Nonfarm Employment - Metro Milwaukee Percent change vs. year-ago levels 1/96 1/97 1/98 1/99 1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 Year-over-Year Job Change - Metro Milwaukee Service providing vs. Goods producing sectors 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% Service providing Goods producing 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% 1/96 1/97 1/98 1/99 1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 Year-Over-Year Job Change by Industry - Metro Milwaukee Percent change August, 2007 to August, % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% Total nonfarm employment Const., mining & nat. res. Manufacturing Trade, trans., & util. Information Financial activities Prof. & bus. services Ed. & health services Leisure & hospitality Other service Government