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1 3/28/211 Northwest Federal Credit Union The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Sh Schar Faculty Chair and University it Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University March 23, Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Change in GDP Q Q Q1 21-Q4 29-Q Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
2 3/28/211 Quarterly GDP Revisions: Global Insight Quarter July 29 October 21 uary Q ** Q ** Q ** Q ** 21 Q ** Q ** Q ** Q4* ** 2.8** 211 Q1* Q2* Q3* Q4* *Projected **Actual U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: Forecast > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
3 3/28/211 THOUSANDS Annual Change in Jobs US U.S. Job Change by Sector December 27 December 29 Ranked by Size in 21 State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs -1,563 Retail Trade -1,26 Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing -2,192 Financial Construction -1,795 Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total - 8,363, Source: BLS March 21 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 3/28/211 U.S. Job Change by Sector December 29 December 21 Ranked by Size in 21 State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -25 (s) Total = 1, Source: BLS March 21 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Unemployment Rate GI FCST Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 3/28/211 Consumer Confidence Expectations Present Situation ti 2 1 Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Interest Rates Forecast > > > > > > Fed 3-Yr GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 3/28/ Consumer Prices Forecast > > > > > > Source: BLS, Global Insight $/barrel 12 1 Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
7 3/28/ Growth in Total Consumption Outlays Forecast > > > > > Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Economic Performance -1 Residential Fixed -2-3 Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 3/28/211 U.S. Economic Performance Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures -2-3 Source: Global Insight U.S. Economic Performance 1-1 Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures Bus. Inv Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 3/28/211 U.S. Economic Performance Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures Federal Bus. Inv Source: Global Insight U.S. Economic Performance Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures State & Local Federal Bus. Inv. -3 Source: Global Insight GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 3/28/211 U.S. Economic Performance GDP 1 Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures State & Local -1 Federal -2 Bus. Inv. -3 Source: Global Insight The Washington Economy GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
11 3/28/211 Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change Month Moving Average Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change Month Moving Average -15. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11
12 3/28/211 s Annual Data Mar Annual Job Change Washington MSA May Annual Month over Year Jul Sep Nov Mar May Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jul Sep Nov Mar May Jul Sep Nov (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change Washington + 11,3 Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12
13 3/28/211 s Annual Data Mar Annual Job Change District of Columbia May Annual Month over Year Jul Sep Nov Mar May Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jul Sep Nov Mar May Jul Sep Nov s Annual Data Mar Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland May Annual Month over Year Jul Sep Nov Mar May Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jul Sep Nov Mar May Jul Sep Nov GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13
14 3/28/211 s Annual Data Mar Annual Job Change Northern Virginia May Annual Month over Year Jul Sep Nov Mar May Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jul Sep Nov Mar May Jul Sep Nov Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financiali Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Washington MSA (s) Total 11, Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 14
15 3/28/211 (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change Washington + 4,8 Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financiali Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Washington MSA (s) Total 4, Source: BLS March 211 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 15
16 3/28/211 Unemployment Rate DC 9.1 U.S. 6. SMD 5.7 MSA NVA 2 Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate December 21 1 US Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted GMU Center for Regional Analysis 16
17 3/28/211 The Washington Area Housing Market The Contribution of Housing to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Other consumption 51 Government 2 Housing services 11 Furnishings & household equip 3 Nonresidential fixed investment 11 Residential fixed investment 5 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA tables, Table Gross Domestic Product, Expanded Detail GMU Center for Regional Analysis 17
18 3/28/211 3 Residential Fixed Investment Contributions to Economic Recoveries Early Late 6s/ Mid Late 7s/ Early Early Late 196s Early 7s 197s Early 8s 199s 2s 2s Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University 14 Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through February Month Moving Average GMU Center for Regional Analysis 18
19 3/28/ Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change 2 21, MSA -May, 26 >1 Feb = Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 25 Total Active Listings Per Sale uary Each Year 2 15 PW PG 1 LDN DC MONT 5 ARL FFX Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 19
20 3/28/211 Average Sales Price Annual Percent Change Washington MSA All Existing Homes Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
21 3/28/211 Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 21
22 3/28/211 Sales Activity and Prices by Housing Type Existing Homes Washington MSA Percent Change Sales Average Prices Single-Family Detached Single-Family il Attached/Townhouses h Condos Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4, 35, 3, Annual Permits by Housing Type Washington MSA ,129 9,36 9,435 6,796 1,235 9,767 Single-family Multi-family 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 9,346 8,42 27,967 26, ,14 28,12 26, ,917 18,179 15,1 5,36 2,415 2,65 9,365 9,9 9, Source: U.S. Census Bureau. December 21 figures are estimates. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 22
23 3/28/211 Residential Construction - Forecasts Housing Demand Up in 211 Low unemployment Job growth Net new jobs Retirees/replacement hires Pent up demand Slowdown in household formation Move up households Low mortgage rates for now Relatively low prices for now Residential Construction - Forecasts Challenges in 211 Low consumer confidence Cautious about housing market recovery Fears generally about jobs, economy More difficult lending process Lack of urgency Foreclosures remain in some jurisdictions Shift in housing preferences GMU Center for Regional Analysis 23
24 3/28/211 Forecasts of Residential Building Activity Washington MSA Apartments Condos Smaller SFD/TH Larger SFD Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies Oct Apr Jul Oct Apr Economic Forecast GMU Center for Regional Analysis 24
25 3/28/ Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. Other Federal 15.7 Local Serving Activities 36.6 Federal 34.9 Procurement 19.2 Other: Health/Education, Media Employment Change by Sub-state Region (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 36, Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, based on 21 Benchmark data from BLS GMU Center for Regional Analysis 25
26 3/28/ Economic Outlook (GRP) 215 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP Washington U.S Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 26
27 3/28/211 policy-cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 27
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NationalEconomicTrends February 9 How Accu Are Forecasts in a Recession? Individual households and firms, as well as local, state, and federal governments, make economic decisions based on their view of
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