R EA L E S TAT E L E N D E RS ASSOCIAT I O N

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Lawrence Edwards
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1 R EA L E S TAT E L E N D E RS ASSOCIAT I O N MULTI-FAMILY ROUNDTABLE A P R I L 2 5, Real Estate Lenders Association DC

2 R E A L E S T A T E L E N D E R S A S S O C I A T I O N M U L T I - F A M I L Y R O U N D T A B L E REGIONAL ECONOMY AND DEMOGRAPHICS Real Estate Lenders Association DC

3 PAY R O L L J O B C H A N G E I N T H O U S A N D S Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb F E D E R A L G O V E R N M E N T PAY R O L L J O B C H A N G E Washington Metro Area Annual Annual Month-over-the-Year 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; April 2013.

4 B I L L I O N S F E D E R A L P R O C U R E M E N T S P E N D I N G Washington Metro Area $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Source: GMU CRA, U.S. Census, Delta Associates; April 2013.

5 B I L L I O N S F E D E R A L P R O C U R E M E N T S P E N D I N G Washington Metro Area $90 $80 Down $7 billion over 2 years $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Source: GMU CRA, U.S. Census, Delta Associates; April 2013.

6 PAY R O L L J O B G R O W T H Large Metro Areas 12 Months Ending February 2013 T H O U S A N D S O F N E W PAY R O L L J O B S LA Basin Hou NY DFW SF Bay Atl Chi Den Bos Phx Was S Fla Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; April 2013.

7 PROJECTED PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area T H O U S A N D S O F N E W PAY R O L L J O B S Year Average =39,800/Year 5-Year Projected Average = 48,100/Year Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; April 2013.

8 COMPARING EXPANSION CYCLES Washington Metro Area T H O U S A N D S O F N E W PAY R O L L J O B S Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; April 2013.

9 COMPARING EXPANSION CYCLES Washington Metro Area T H O U S A N D S O F N E W PAY R O L L J O B S More office jobs, higher wages Fewer office jobs, lower wages Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; April 2013.

10 PROJECTED PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area Professional/Business Services Construction Education/Health Other Sectors Retail Trade State and Local Government Leisure/Hospitality Information Financial Services Other Services Federal Government -40, ,000 80, , ,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; April 2013.

11 PROJECTED PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area Professional/Business Services Construction Education/Health Other Sectors Retail Trade State and Local Government Leisure/Hospitality Information Financial Services Other Services Federal Government -40, ,000 80, , ,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; April 2013.

12 PROJECTED PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area Professional/Business Services Construction Education/Health Other Sectors Retail Trade State and Local Government Leisure/Hospitality Information Financial Services Other Services Federal Government -40, ,000 80, , ,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; April 2013.

13 C H A N G I N G D E M A N D PAT T E R N S Population Change by Age Group - Washington Metro Area AV E R A G E A N N U A L C H A N G E 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% A G E R A N G E Source: U.S. Census, GMU CRA, Delta Associates; April 2013.

14 C H A N G I N G D E M A N D PAT T E R N S No Driver s License by Age Group - United States 1983 vs S H A R E W I T H O U T D R I V E R S L I C E N S E 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% A G E R A N G E Source: The Wall Street Journal, Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle, University of Michigan, Delta Associates; April 2013.

15 C H A N G I N G D E M A N D PAT T E R N S No Driver s License by Age Group - United States 1983 vs S H A R E W I T H O U T D R I V E R S L I C E N S E 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% A G E R A N G E Source: The Wall Street Journal, Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle, University of Michigan, Delta Associates; April 2013.

16 C H A N G I N G D E M A N D PAT T E R N S Single-Person Households; Unit Sizes SINGLE-PERSON HOUSEHOLDS SMALLER UNIT SIZES BUILDING TYPE AVERAGE SIZE IN 2010 (SF) CHANGE IN SIZE SINCE 2000 D.C. High-rise % No VA Low-rise % Source: U.S. Census, Delta Associates; April 2013.

17 R E N T E R S A S A S H A R E O F T O T A L H O U S E H O L D S C H A N G I N G D E M A N D PAT T E R N S Renter Households, U.S. and Washington Metro 37% 36% 35% 34% UNITED STATES 33% 32% 31% WASHINGTON METRO 30% 29% 28% Y E A R Source: U.S. Census, Delta Associates; April 2013.

18 C H A N G I N G D E M A N D PAT T E R N S Pent-up Demand: Year Olds Living with their Parents, United States S H A R E M I L L I O N S 15.0% 14.5% 14.0% 13.5% Share of Persons Years Number Persons Years % 12.5% 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% % 3.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Delta Associates; April 2013.

19 R E A L E S T A T E L E N D E R S A S S O C I A T I O N M U L T I - F A M I L Y R O U N D T A B L E WASHINGTON METRO AREA APARTMENT MARKET Real Estate Lenders Association DC

20 A N N U A L N E T A B S O R P T I O N, U N I T S A PA R T M E N T A B S O R P T I O N Major Apartment Markets 10,000 Long-Term Annual Averages 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 5,095 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 DFW Hou Atl Was L.A. Phx Balt Phil Chi Pgh Source: REIS, MPF Research, Delta Associates; April 2013.

21 U N I T S A N N U A L A B S O R P T I O N O F C L A S S A A PA R T M E N T S Washington Metro First Quarter ,000 Long-Term Average Net Absorption = 5,699 8,000 6,646 6,000 4,000 2, Q1 Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.

22 M O N T H LY A B S O R P T I O N P A C E P E R P R O J E C T S I N C E M A R K E T I N G B E G A N A B S O R P T I O N PA C E P E R P R O J E C T P E R M O N T H For Projects in Initial Lease-Up Washington Metro Projects in Initial Lease-Up: Source: Delta Associates, April * 12 months ending March of each year.

23 A PA R T M E N T VA C A N C Y R AT E S Major Apartment Markets V A C A N C Y R AT E ( A L L C L A S S E S ) 8.0% 7.0% Average of 57 Largest Metros: 5.1% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.7% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% NY LA Chi Was Phi Balt DFW Hou Phx Atl Source: M/PF, Delta Associates; April, 2013.

24 E F F E C T I V E R E N T G R O W T H A N N U A L R E N T G R O W T H C L A S S A A PA R T M E N T S Washington Metro Area * 8% 6% Long-Term Average Rent Growth = 4.3% 4% 3.0% 2% 0.6% 0% -2% W A S H I N G T O N M E T R O U. S. Source: M/PF Research, Delta Associates; April, *12 months ending March of each year.

25 E F F E C T I V E R E N T G R O W T H A N N U A L R E N T G R O W T H C L A S S A A PA R T M E N T S Washington Metro Area * 8% 6% Long-Term Average Rent Growth = 4.3% 4% 3.0% 2% 0% 0.6% -2% W A S H I N G T O N M E T R O U. S. Source: M/PF Research, Delta Associates; April, *12 months ending March of each year.

26 C O N C E S S I O N S A S % O F F A C E R E N T C O N C E S S I O N S F O R P R O P E R T I E S I N L E A S E - UP Washington Metro Area 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Delta Associates; April Note: As Of First Quarter Each Year.

27 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S P L A N N E D A N D U N D E R C O N S T R U C T I O N 36-MONTH D E V E L O P M E N T P I P E L I N E Washington Metro Apartment Market 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Q 2013 Source: Delta Associates, April 2013.

28 APARTMENT UNIT STARTS Washington Metro C L A S S A M A R K E T - R A T E U N I T S 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 District Sub MD No VA Long-Term Demand = 1,425/quarter 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Source: Delta Associates, April 2013.

29 P R O J E C T E D D E L I V E R I E S Projects Currently Under Construction Washington Metro C L A S S A M A R K E T - R A T E U N I T S 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 District Sub MD No VA Long-Term Demand = 1,425/quarter 0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Source: Delta Associates, April 2013.

30 DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Washington Metro Class A Apartment Market March 2013 March 2016 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S I N T H O U S A N D S DEMAND Net Absorption: 5,700/Year = 17,100 SUPPLY 1/ Planned and may deliver by 3/16: 5,667 units Under construction: 30,211 units 2/ 0 The District Sub MD No VA 5.6% 5.2% 4.9% PROJECTED STABILIZED VACANCY % AT MARCH 2016: 5.1% METRO WIDE Total = 35,878 units 1/ After projected attrition 2/ Includes unleased units in projects still in lease-up Source: Delta Associates, April 2013.

31 A V E R A G E R E N O V A T I O N B U D G E T P E R U N I T # O F U N I T S A PA R T M E N T P R O P E R T I E S U N D E R G O I N G R E N O VAT I O N Washington Metro Area $35,000 Average renovation budget # of units 35,000 $30,000 30,000 $25,000 25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: Delta Associates, April *At First Quarter 2013.

32 E F F E C T I V E R E N T G R O W T H A N N U A L C L A S S A A PA R T M E N T R E N T G R O W T H Washington Metro % 8% Long-Term Average = 4.3 % 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Source: Delta Associates, April * Annual rent growth at 1Q 2013 is 0.3%

33 R E A L E S T A T E L E N D E R S A S S O C I A T I O N M U L T I - F A M I L Y R O U N D T A B L E CAPITAL MARKETS Real Estate Lenders Association DC

34 A V E R A G E C A P R A T E C A P R AT E S S H O W S L I G H T I N C R E A S E I N Washington Metro: Class A High-Rise Apartments 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Source: Delta Associates Market Maker Survey; April, Note: Cap rates are as of October of each year.

35 P R O P E R T Y S A L E S I N B I L L I O N S APARTMENT TRANSACTION VOLUME EASING Washington Metro Area $4.5 $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 First Half Second Half First Half Second Half First Half Second Half First Half Second Half First Half Second Half First Half * Source: Delta Associates; April, * Projected, based on January and February.

36 P R I C E / U N I T I N T H O U S A N D S P E R U N I T S A L E P R I C E S H AV E R E B O U N D E D T O P R I O R P E A K Washington Metro Area: Class A Apartments $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 High-Rise Garden Source: Delta Associates; April, 2013.

37 P R I C E / U N I T I N T H O U S A N D S P E R U N I T S A L E P R I C E S H AV E R E B O U N D E D T O P R I O R P E A K Washington Metro Area: Class A Apartments $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 High-Rise Garden $0 Source: Delta Associates; April, The District, >$600K/Unit, March 2013

38 R E A L E S T A T E L E N D E R S A S S O C I A T I O N M U L T I - F A M I L Y R O U N D T A B L E WASHINGTON METRO AREA CONDO MARKET Real Estate Lenders Association DC

39 N E W C O N D O M I N I U M U N I T S A L E S A C T I V I T Y Washington Metro Area N E T N E W U N I T S S O L D 15,000 10,000 5, ,948 13,351 6,244 3,732 1,739 = District = Suburban Washington 2,383 2,147 1,663 2,046 2, * Source: Delta Associates; April *12 months ending March 2013.

40 A N N U A L C O N D O M I N I U M R E S A L E S T R E N D Washington Metro Area U N I T S S O L D 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, * Source: Delta Associates; April *12 months ending February 2013.

41 N E W C O N D O M I N I U M S A L E S P R I C E C H A N G E Washington Metro Area C H A N G E I N A V E R G E E F F E C T I V E P R I C E 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% * -8% Source: Delta Associates; April * 12 months ending March 2013.

42 N E W C O N D O M I N I U M S A C T I V E LY M A R K E T I N G O R U / C Washington Metro Area March 2007 March 2013 M A R K E T - R A T E U N I T S 20,000 19,891 18,000 16,000 16,192 Sub MD District 14,000 NoVa 12,000 10,000 8,000 8,376 6,000 4,000 4,418 3,858 3,565 2,849 2,000 0 March 2007 March 2008 March 2009 March 2010 March 2011 March 2012 March 2013 Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.

43 Y E A R S O F N E W C O N D O M I N I U M S U P P LY Washington Metro Area Y E A R S O F S U P P LY Q Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.

44 C O N D O M I N I U M D E M A N D A N D S U P P LY P R O J E C T I O N S Washington Metro Area 1st Quarter st Quarter 2016 M A R K E T - R A T E U N I T S 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, The District Sub MD No VA D E M A N D Net Sales: 2,300/Year = 6,900 units S U P P LY 1/ Planned and may deliver by 3/16: 2,043 units Under construction and/or marketing: 2,849 units 2 Total = 4,892 units 1/ After projected attrition 2/ Includes unsold units Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.

45 M A R K E T - R A T E U N I T S C O N D O M I N I U M D E L I V E R I E S Washington Metro Area ,000 Sub MD District No VA 10,000 8,000 Normalized range 6,000 4,000 2, Source: Delta Associates; April 2013.

46 R EA L E S TAT E L E N D E RS ASSOCIAT I O N MULTI-FAMILY ROUNDTABLE A P R I L 2 5, Real Estate Lenders Association DC

THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

THE NATIONAL ECONOMY THE NATIONAL ECONOMY Source: National Association of Realtors, Delta Associates; October 2015. THE REGIONAL ECONOMY PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Selected Large Metro Areas 12 Months Ending July