SIGNS. MICHAEL FERREIRA URBAN ANALYTICS INC. October 24, 2014
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1 SIGNS MICHAEL FERREIRA URBAN ANALYTICS INC. October 24, 2014
2
3 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep Change In Consumer Price Index Canada BC Vancouver Source: StatsCan
4 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Source: StatsCan % Change in Retail Sales BC Canada
5 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 % Change in Employment Growth Canada BC Alberta Ontario Ouch! Source: StatsCan
6 60,900 JOBS CREATED IN BC THIS YEAR
7 9.0 Unemployment Rate Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Canada BC Alberta Ontario Source: BC Stats
8 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% % Change in New Housing Price Index Metro Vancouver Canada Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Source: StatsCan
9 20% 15% Change in New Housing Price Index Since April 2008 Toronto 15.9% 10% 5% 0% Calgary 1.6% Canada 6.4% -5% -10% Metro Vancouver -6.1% Source: StatsCan
10 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 % Change in REBGV Benchmark Price Detached Townhome Condominium Source: StatsCan
11 INTEREST RATES
12 Posted Five Year Fixed Rate vs. BoC Overnight Rate 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4.75% 7.44% 6.40% 3.00% 5.34% 5.14% 3% 2% 1% 0% Posted 5 Year Fixed BOC Overnight Rate 0.50% 1.25% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Source: Bank of Canada
13 PREDICTION #1 Rates aren t going anywhere anytime soon
14 The Quantitative Easing (QE) Conundrum
15 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% US Unemployment Rate: % - US Fed's target unemployment rate to commence QE tapering 10.0% 7.2% 6% 5% 4% 4.4% 6.5% - US Fed's target unemployment rate to commence rate increases 3% Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics Data
16 To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable amount of time after the asset purchase program (QE) ends and the economic recovery strengthens. US Federal Reserve Committee Statement July 30, 2013
17
18 Posted Five Year Fixed Rate vs. BoC Overnight Rate 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4.75% 7.44% 6.40% 3.00% 5.34% 5.14% 3% 2% 1% 0% Posted 5 Year Fixed BOC Overnight Rate 0.50% 1.25% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Source: Bank of Canada
19
20 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3, ,000 BC Net Interprovincial and International Migration Net Interprovincial Migration Net International Migration Source: StatsCan
21 Third Quarter Net Interprovincial Migration Analysis Others: +131 Quebec: +482 Ontario: +474 Saskatchewan: -315 Manitoba: +76 Alberta: -2,106-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1, ,000 Source: StatsCan
22 International Migration still the primary driver of Metro Vancouver s Housing Market
23 41,569 Annual Average Net International Migrants to BC since 2004
24 16% Average Annual proportion of International Migrants to BC
25 14% Average Annual proportion of International Migrants to Metro Vancouver
26 69% Average Annual Proportion of International Migrants to BC from Asia-Pacific
27 8,752 Total Number of Investor Class Applicants Processed in 2012
28 5,637 (64%) Investor Class Applicants Processed through Hong Kong and Beijing in 2012
29 84,148 Total Investor Class Applicant Inventory as of April 2013
30 59,116 (70%) Investor Class Applicant Inventory at Hong Kong and Beijing
31 Business Challenges for New Investor Class Immigrants to Vancouver / Canada
32 Language Culture Processes & Regulations Higher Wages Size of Market
33 What s to like about Vancouver for Chinese Investor Immigrants?
34 Convenience 130 ish direct flights Ease of integration
35 PREDICTION #2 New Chinese Immigrants will impact our housing market for the foreseeable future
36 THE NEW HOME MARKET
37 Concrete Condominiums Year-to-Date Sales Comparison 4,253 3,075 2,818 2,546 YTD-2010 YTD-2011 YTD-2012 YTD-2013 Source: UAI New Home Source
38 Wood Frame Condominiums Year-to-Date Sales Comparison 2,943 2,502 1,690 1,832 YTD-2010 YTD-2011 YTD-2012 YTD-2013 Source: UAI New Home Source
39 Townhomes Year-to-Date Sales Comparison 2,108 1,622 1,647 1,425 YTD-2010 YTD-2011 YTD-2012 YTD-2013 Source: UAI New Home Source
40 Number of Units 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Quarterly Sales vs. Unsold Inventory Total Sales 8,979 Released Inventory 2,650 0 Source: UAI New Home Source
41 Number of Units 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Condominium Inventory By Construction Status Concrete Condos Wood Frame Condos Pre-Construction Under Construction Complete Source: UAI New Home Source
42 Total Standing Inventory Trend 2,135 1,935 1,896 1,532 1,725 1,653 Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: UAI New Home Source
43 Number of Units Standing Inventory by Sub-Market Source: UAI New Home Source
44 Some bright spots
45 Richmond 878 concrete condos sold this year 660 in last two quarters
46 Richmond Wood frame condo demand still strong Alexander Court sells 52 units at launch
47 Tri Cities Nearly 500 concrete condos sold this year 74% increase over 2012
48 Downtown Concord does it again with One Pacific 300 sales in four months
49 Vancouver West Cambie Corridor UBC Product, Product, Product
50 Vancouver East Wall Centre Central Park Shoreline at River District
51 Burnaby Needs more product!
52 North Shore The proverbial hare slow and steady.
53
54 PREDICTION # will be another grinding year
55 Differentiation Through product design and innovation
56 BosaSpace
57 Differentiation Through appropriate product mix and positioning
58 Differentiation Through customer care pre and post sales
59 PREDICTION #4 Supply will remain constrained in urban markets
60 Get ready for more of this
61 PREDICTION #5 Urban master plan mania
62 Oakridge
63 Quebec & 1 st Ave
64 Brentwood
65 Miscellaneous Musings Chinatown & East Hastings will take time
66 Miscellaneous Musings Surrey City Centre will surprise
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