Capturing equity gains whilst protecting portfolios

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1 Capturing equity gains whilst protecting portfolios Edward Park Q2 2018

2 MSCI North America Total Return in USD (2017 Discrete Calendar Months) 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0% 0.00% Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Source: Bloomberg data as at 09/04/2018 2

3 US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet vs VIX Index since start of Fed Balance Sheet VIX Source: Bloomberg data as at 03/04/2018 3

4 01/04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/2018 US Average Hourly Earnings (Wage Growth) vs US Employment Rate (last 10 years (%)) US Unemployment Rate US Average Hourly Earnings Source: Bloomberg data as at 01/04/2018 4

5 Source: Brooks Macdonald Research as at 01/04/2018 5

6 Beware of Bubbles MSCI World Information Technology Index (Index Level LHS) Bitcoin ($ RHS) Source: Bloomberg data as at 03/04/2018 6

7 15.00 Bank Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets for United States (Shaded Areas indicate Recessions) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as at 01/01/2015 7

8 EM DM 30.0 UK 29.8 US corp EM US UK 14.1 DM corp corp US UK -3.0 DM EM EM 18.2 DM 15.8 US 15.7 UK 12.2 corp US DM 26.7 UK corp 0.3 EM US DM corp 3.1 UK EM UK 0.0 US DM corp EM UK US 12.0 EM DM corp Equities 42.2 EM Equities 37.3 Equities 26.8 DM Equities 22.4 US Equities 20.6 Equities 19.7 UK Equities Inv Grade Corp Bonds Asset class returns (in local currencies) between 2009 and Source: Morningstar 8

9 Source: istock 9

10 10

11 Source: Brooks Macdonald Research as at 01/01/

12 Important information This document is intended for professional advisers only and should not be relied upon by any persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments. All data provided by Brooks Macdonald, unless otherwise stated, as at The value of your investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. You may get back less than you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Brooks Macdonald is a trading name of Brooks Macdonald Group plc used by various companies in the Brooks Macdonald group of companies. Brooks Macdonald Group plc is registered in England No Registered office: 72 Welbeck Street London W1G 0AY. Brooks Macdonald Asset Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No Registered office: 72 Welbeck Street London W1G 0AY. More information about the Brooks Macdonald Group can be found at 12

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