THE NATIONAL ECONOMY. Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
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8 AMAZON HQ2 Will it be Located in the Washington Metro Area? Source: DMPED, Delta Associates, October 2018.
9 P AY R O L L J O B S ( T H O U S A N D S ) PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Selected Large Metro Areas 12 Months Ending August NY DFW Hou Phx LA Basin Was Bos Atl Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2018.
10 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE * Selected Large Metro Areas August 2017 vs. August % August 2017 August % 4% National Rate 4.5% 3.9% 3% 2% 1% 0% SF Bay Den Bos Was DFW Atl S Fla Chi NY Hou Phx LA YoY Basis Point Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October *Not seasonally adjusted.
11 P AY R O L L J O B S ( T H O U S A N D S ) PROJECTED JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area Year Annual Average = 43,300/Year 3-Year Projected Average = 38,400/Year The District Sub MD No VA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates; October 2018.
12 PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending August 2018 Professional/Business Services Education/Health Leisure/Hospitality State and Local Government Construction/Mining Transportation/Utilities 70,300 Financial Activities Retail Trade Other Services Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information Federal Government -5,400-5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2018.
13 PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending August 2018 Professional/Business Services Education/Health Leisure/Hospitality State and Local Government Construction/Mining Transportation/Utilities 70,300 Financial Activities Retail Trade Other Services Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information Federal Government -5,400-5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2018.
14 PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending August 2018 Professional/Business Services Education/Health Leisure/Hospitality State and Local Government Construction/Mining Transportation/Utilities 70,300 Financial Activities Retail Trade Other Services Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information Federal Government -5,400-5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2018.
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16 U N I T S ( T H O U S A N D S ) LARGEST APARTMENT MARKETS Selected Metro Areas ,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, NY LA Basin Chi SF Bay DFW Hou Wash So FL Bos Atl Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Delta Associates; October 2018.
17 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION Washington Metro Area Average Since 2008 = 8,138 16,000 Long-Term Average = 7,222 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, * *12 months ending September 2018.
18 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION Washington Metro Area ,000 Long-Term Average = 7,222 Average Since 2008 = 8,138 Annual Average ~ 9,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, * *12 months ending September 2018.
19 U N I T S P E R P R O J E C T P E R M O N T H ABSORPTION PACE Class A Projects in Initial Lease-Up Washington Metro Area 20 Absorption Pace Number of Projects /11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 9/18 15
20 U N I T S P E R P R O J E C T P E R M O N T H N U M B E R O F P R O J E C T S I N A C T I V E L E A S E U P ABSORPTION PACE Class A Projects in Initial Lease-Up Washington Metro Area 20 Absorption Pace Number of Projects /11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 9/18 15
21 V A C A N C Y R AT E ( A L L C L A S S E S ) STABILIZED APARTMENT VACANCY RATES Major Apartment Markets Second Quarter % 6% National Vacancy Rate = 4.8% 5% 4% 3.6% 3% 2% 1% 0% LA Wash Phi Atl Chi Phx NY DFW Balt Bos Hou Source: REIS, Delta Associates; October 2018.
22 ANNUAL EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Class A Apartments Washington Metro Area % 8% Long-Term Average Rent Growth = 3.9% 6% 4% 2% 1.4% 0% -2% -4% * *12 months ending September 2018.
23 PROJECTS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION District of Columbia In Lease-up Not Yet Leasing
24 C L A S S A M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S APARTMENT DELIVERIES Washington Metro Area ,000 The District Sub MD No VA 4,000 Class A Quarterly Absorption = 2,724 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q
25 CLASS A APARTMENT RENT GROWTH Selected Submarkets in the District % Submarket District 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Mt Vern Tri 14th St NoMa H Street Cap Riv Q1 12 Q1 15 Q1 13 Q1 16 Q1 13 Q1 16 Q1 15 Q1 18 Q2 15 Q2 18
26 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 36-MONTH APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE* Washington Metro Area ,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 *Market-Rate Units Planned and Under Construction After Attrition **As of Third Quarter.
27 C L A S S A M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S PROJECTED DELIVERIES Washington Metro Area ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, The District Sub MD No VA Class A Projected Quarterly Absorption = 2,225 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q
28 C L A S S A M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 36-MONTH APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE* Top 10 Submarkets in Washington Metro Area Third Quarter ,000 8,000 The District No VA Sub MD 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 *Market-Rate Units Planned and Under Construction After Attrition.
29 MARKET-RATE UNITS (THOUSANDS) DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Washington Metro Area Class A Apartments 36 Months Ending September DEMAND Net Absorption: 9,000/Year = 27,000 SUPPLY Planned and may deliver by 9/21: 7,049 units 1 Under construction: 30,091 units 2 0 No VA Sub MD The District 4.0% 4.5% 4.8% Projected Stabilized Vacancy % at September % Metro-Wide Total = 37,140 units
30 ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Washington Metro Area % 8% Long-Term Average = 3.9% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% * * Annual rent growth at Third Quarter 2018 is 1.4%.
31 ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Washington Metro Area % 8% Long-Term Average = 3.9% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% * * Annual rent growth at Third Quarter 2018 is 1.4%.
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33 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION Baltimore Metro Area ,000 3,500 3,000 2, Year Average = 1,998 3,586 Annual Average ~ 2,333 2,000 1,500 1, * *12 months ending September 2018.
34 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION Baltimore Metro Area ,000 3,500 3,000 2, Year Average = 1,998 3,586 Annual Average ~ 2,333 2,000 1,500 1, * *12 months ending September 2018.
35 S T A B I L I Z E D V A C A N C Y R A T E A V E R A G E E F F E C T I V E B A S E R E N T EFFECTIVE RENT AND VACANCY RATE Class A Apartments Baltimore Metro Area % $1,800 6% Average Effective Base Rent Stabilized Vacancy $1,700 $1,600 5% $1,500 4% $1,400 $1,300 3% $1,200 2% $1,100 1% $1,000 $900 0% $ % / Y E A R L O N G - T E R M R E N T G R O W T H * As of Third Quarter.
36 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 36-MONTH APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE* Baltimore Metro Area ,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 *Market-Rate Units Planned and Under Construction After Attrition. **As of Third Quarter
37 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Baltimore Metro Area Class A Apartments 36 Months Ending September ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 D E M A N D Net Absorption: 2,333/Year = 7,000 S U P P LY 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Baltimore Metro Area Planned and may deliver by 9/21: 1,234 units 1 Under construction: 6,719 units 2 Total = 7,953 units Projected Stabilized Vacancy Rate at Sept. 2021: 4.0% Metro-Wide
38 ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Baltimore Metro Area % Long-Term Average = 3.8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% * Annual rent growth at Third Quarter 2018 is 1.5%.
39 ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Baltimore Metro Area % Long-Term Average = 3.8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% * Annual rent growth at Third Quarter 2018 is 1.5%.
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41 B I L L I O N S APARTMENT INVESTMENT SALES Selected Metro Areas LA DFW Chi Was Bal $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ * Source: Real Capital Analytics, Delta Associates; October *Sales through September annualized.
42 NCREIF RETURN INDEX FOR INVESTMENT-GRADE APARTMENTS Selected Metro Areas 12 Months Ending June % 12% 10% National Average = 6.5% 8% 6% 5.0% 4% 2% 0% Phx Atl Den Bos Hou Aus DFW Was Chi Source: NCREIF, Delta Associates; October 2018.
43 CLASS A HIGH-RISE APARTMENT CAP RATES Washington Metro Area % 6.44% 6.61% 6% 5% 5.62% 5.29% 4.94% 5.06% 5.11% 4.92% 4.75% 4.80% 4.88% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: Delta Associates Market Maker Survey; October 2018.
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45 YEARS OF SUPPLY Low-Rise Class A Submarkets Washington Metro Area Less than 1.0
46 YEARS OF SUPPLY High-Rise Class A Submarkets Washington Metro Area Less than 1.0
47 YEARS OF SUPPLY Class A Submarkets Baltimore Metro Area Less than 1.0
48 TAKEAWAYS Washington/Baltimore Area Apartment Market ABOVE-AVERAGE ABSORPTION TO CONTINUE, BUT DECREASE IN VELOCITY
49 TAKEAWAYS Washington/Baltimore Area Apartment Market ABOVE-AVERAGE ABSORPTION TO CONTINUE, BUT DECREASE IN VELOCITY DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE REMAINS ELEVATED, ALTHOUGH MOST NEW SUPPLY IN FEW SUBMARKETS
50 TAKEAWAYS Washington/Baltimore Area Apartment Market ABOVE-AVERAGE ABSORPTION TO CONTINUE, BUT DECREASE IN VELOCITY DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE REMAINS ELEVATED, ALTHOUGH MOST NEW SUPPLY IN FEW SUBMARKETS RENTS WILL INCREASE BELOW THE LONG- TERM AVERAGE
51 RECOMMENDED DEVELOPMENT TIMING Washington/Baltimore Area Apartment Market A PA R T M E N T S = Site Assembly = Construction = Delivery
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53 U N I T S ( T H O U S A N D S ) LARGEST CONDOMINIUM MARKETS Selected Metro Areas NY Chi So FL LA Basin Bos Wash SF Bay Sea Tampa Bay Den Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Delta Associates; October 2018.
54 CONDOMINIUM SALES ACTIVITY Washington Metro Area 12 Months Ending September 2018 Compared to Prior Year Up more than 50% Up 26% - 50% Up 0% - 25% Down 1% - 25% Down 26% - 50% Down more than 50%
55 U N I T S ANNUAL CONDOMINIUM RESALES Washington Metro Area ,000 20,000 18,000 Average From = 17,890 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; October *12 months ending August 2018.
56 U N I T S ANNUAL CONDOMINIUM RESALES Washington Metro Area ,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 Average From = 11,280 12,000 10,000 8,000 Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; October *12 months ending August 2018.
57 U N I T S ANNUAL CONDOMINIUM RESALES Washington Metro Area ,000 20,000 Average Since 2013 = 15,259 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; October *12 months ending August 2018.
58 EFFECTIVE NEW CONDOMINIUM SALES PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1.1% 1.5% -2% -4% -6% * 2019 *12 months ending September 2018.
59 EFFECTIVE NEW CONDOMINIUM SALES PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1.1% 1.5% -2% -4% -6% * 2019 *12 months ending September 2018.
60 NEW CONDOMINIUM AVERAGE PRICE PER SF Washington Metro Area Third Quarter 2018 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,000 $1,014 $847 $800 $672 $600 $587 $559 $502 $400 $200 $227 $208 $0 Upper NW DC Central DC Arl/Alex Cap East DC Ffx/FC Mont Mideast DC Pr. George's Lou/PrWm
61 Source: The Mark Company, Miller Samuel Inc., Delta Associates, October *Third Quarter 2018 except for cities outside of the Washington/Baltimore region which are as of Second Quarter NEW CONDOMINIUM AVERAGE PRICE PER SF Selected Downtown Areas in the U.S. Third Quarter 2018* $3,000 $2,700 $2,804 $2,400 $2,100 $1,800 $1,500 $1,200 $1,300 $1,223 $1,135 $1,127 $1,086 $1,014 $900 $747 $707 $672 $600 $300 $502 $438 $0 Manhattan Upper NW DC San Francisco Queens Seattle Brooklyn Central DC L.A. San Diego Capitol East DC Mideast DC Baltimore City
62 RESALE CONDOMINIUM SALES PRICE CHANGE Washington Metro Area % 20% 15% 10% 5% 3.1% 0% -5% -10% * Source: MRIS, Delta Associates; October * 12 months ending August 2018.
63 UNSOLD NEW CONDOMINIUM UNITS ACTIVELY MARKETING OR UNDER CONSTRUCTION Washington Metro Area M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 2, Note: Number of units are for September of each year.
64 MONTHS OF NEW CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY Washington Metro Area * 2019 *as of Third Quarter 2018.
65 MONTHS OF NEW CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY Washington Metro Area * 2019 *as of Third Quarter 2018.
66 MONTHS OF NEW CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY BY SUBMARKET Washington Metro Area Third Quarter 2018
67 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Washington Metro Area Condominiums 36 Months Ending September ,000 2,500 D E M A N D Net Sales: 1,975/Year = 5,925 units 2,000 1,500 1, The District No VA Sub MD Planned and May Begin Marketing by 9/21: 2,629 units 1 Under Construction and/or Marketing: 2,665 units 2 Total = 5,294 units
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69 TAKEAWAYS Washington Area Condominium Market S U P P P LY - C O N S T R A I N E D M A R K E T C O N D I T I O N S P E R S I S T
70 TAKEAWAYS Washington Area Condominium Market S U P P P LY - C O N S T R A I N E D M A R K E T C O N D I T I O N S P E R S I S T N E W C O N D O S A L E S W I L L N O T I N C R E A S E M U C H U N T I L M O R E N E W D E V E L O P M E N T O C C U R S I N T H E M E T R O A R E A
71 TAKEAWAYS Washington Area Condominium Market S U P P LY - C O N S T R A I N E D M A R K E T C O N D I T I O N S P E R S I S T N E W C O N D O S A L E S W I L L N O T I N C R E A S E M U C H U N T I L M O R E N E W D E V E L O P M E N T O C C U R S I N T H E M E T R O A R E A P R I C E G R O W T H M I N I M A L D E S P I T E M A R K E T S H O R TA G E F O R N E W P R O D U C T A N D R E S A L E S
72 RECOMMENDED DEVELOPMENT TIMING Washington Metro Area Condominium Market C O N D O M I N I U M S = Site Assembly = Construction = Delivery
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