Strong performance for real estate assets

Transcription

1 Strong performance for real estate assets Annualized returns, United States, 212 Percent year 1 year REITs Equities Real property Govt bonds CPI T-bills Sources: CBRE, NCREIF.

2 REIT returns exceed pre-crisis level Dow Jones REIT Index: total return, United States 199= Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Moody s Analytics.

3 Americas have the most available capital New capital targeting direct real estate US$ billions Asia Pacific EMEA Americas End 29 Mid 21 End 21 Mid 211 End 211 Mid 212 End 212 Source: DTZ research.

4 Available equity increased, offsetting the impact of reduced gearing levels US$ billions End 211 End Mid Available equity (left axis) 65 End Mid End Mid 212 Average LTV ratio (right axis) 65 Asia Pacific Americas EMEA End End End Mid 212 Percent 65 End Source: DTZ research.

5 Direct commercial real estate investment Regional transaction volumes US$ billions 7 6 Americas EMEA Asia Pacific 28Q4 29Q2 29Q4 21Q2 21Q4 211Q2 211Q4 212Q2 212Q4 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle.

6 U.S. is the largest source of capital Top 1 purchases by source of capital US$ billions Source: Jones Lang LaSalle. U.S. Global Germany U.K. Canada Japan France Singapore China South Korea

7 Global CMBS issuances back on the rise US$ billions Non-US 25 2 US * * Year to date as of April 2, 213. Sources: Commercial Real Estate Direct, Bloomberg.

8 CMBS spreads flat By rating Thousands bps A (left axis) AA (left axis) AAA5Yr (right axis) Bps Sources: Commercial Real Estate Direct, Bloomberg.

9 Institutional-grade commercial real estate Share of global total Asia Pacific 27% 211 EMEA 38% 231 EMEA 24% Asia Pacific 49% Americas 35% Americas 27% Source: Jones Lang LaSalle.

10 Prime office rent changes Major office markets with highest and lowest annual growth, Beijing Mexico City Sao Paulo San Francisco Brussels Madrid Paris Singapore Hong Kong Percent Source: Jones Lang LaSalle.

11 Office net absorption Selected major markets, as shares of occupied stocks, 212 Percent Sources: Jones Lang LaSalle, Milken Institute.

12 Office supply pipeline Completions as shares of existing stock Percent Sources: Jones Lang LaSalle, Milken Institute.

13 Office vacancy rates Selected major markets, 212 Q4 Percent 25 2 Europe 9.6% Asia Pacific 11.% Americas 16.% Sources: Jones Lang LaSalle, CBRE.

14 U.S. shows better retail sales Retail sales by region, constant prices Percent change, year ago 1 U.S. 8 U.K Euro Area Sources: Eurostat, Office for National Statistics (ONS), U.K., U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Datastream, Milken Institute.

15 E-commerce markets rising rapidly E-commerce sales as a percent of total retail sales Percent 8 6 United States China Sources: U.S. Census, Milken Institute.

16 Retail: prime rents surge in top markets High street retail, 212 Q4 Percent change, year ago Washington D.C. Hong Kong Paris New York London West End Munich Sydney Dublin Source: CBRE Research.

17 Retail: Manila outperforms other Asian markets Average rental growth, 212 Q4 Percent change, year ago Manila Hong Kong Beijing Shanghai Taipei Auckland CBD Source: CBRE Research.

18 U.S. industrial production above 25 levels End 25= U.S. Euro Area U.K. Japan Source: International Monetary Fund.

19 Industrial properties attract institutional investors Most active buyers by transaction volumes in US$ billions, global Norges Bank Investment Management Blackstone Global Logistics Properties GIC (Government of Singapore) Digital Realty Trust CPP Investment Board Brookfield Asset Management China Investment Corp. Industrial Income Trust DRA Advisors Source: Real Capital Analytics.

20 Industrial transactions and prices up United States US$ billions US$ billions Volume Volume (left axis) (left axis) Price Price (right (right axis) axis) US$ p.s.f. US$ p.s.f Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Milken Institute.

21 Americas see increasing hotel investment Regional hotel investment volumes changes US$ billions P Asia Pacific EMEA Americas Source: Jones Lang LaSalle.

22 Three-speed economic recovery Projection after 212 GDP growth, percent Euro area Source: IMF WEO, April 213. Emerging market and developing economies U.S.

23 Eurozone recession deepens Annual GDP growth (%) Germany France -2 Spain -4 Italy -6-8 Q1 23 Q1 24 Q1 25 Q1 26 Q1 27 Q1 28 Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Source: Datastream.

24 China s growth slows Real GDP Percent change, year ago Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China. Average, : 9.6% 212: 7.8% 213 Q1: 7.7%

25 Real GDP growth projections Percent change, year ago Global Euro Area Developed countries Developing countries Japan U.K. U.S. Mexico Brazil India China Source: International Monetary Fund.

26 Global real short-term interest rates are negative Global real interest rate (%) Note: 3-month interest rates: Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States; Weighted by 212 GDP. Sources: DataStream, International Monetary Fund, Milken Institute.

27 Central bank target interest rates remain low Percent 6 Bank of England European Central Bank 1 Federal Reserve Source: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Datastream.

28 Expansion of balance sheets of major central banks Central bank total assets (% of GDP) BoJ ECB BoE Fed 1 5 Q1 26 Q1 27 Q1 28 Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Source: Bloomberg.

29 Inflation concerns ease Consumer Price Index, 3-month rolling average Percent change, year ago 1 8 China Euro zone -2 United States Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics, China, Eurostat, Milken Institute.

30 Capital flows to emerging market economies have resumed Net capital flows US$ billions Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Source: IMF.

31 U.S. commercial and industrial lending Quarterly change, US$ billions Source: FDIC. Q4 6 Q1 7 Q2 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 Q2 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12

32 Equities rally in 213 Equity indices in major countries Index (January 1, 21 = 1) 15 U.S. 14 Eurozone U.K. 9 Japan 8 7 Note: U.S. (S&P 5), Eurozone (German DAX), UK (FTSE 1), Japan (Topix). Source: Bloomberg.

33 Flight to safety Decline in the government bond yields in major advanced countries 1-year government bond yield (%) 6 5 Germany U.K. U.S Japan Source: Bloomberg.

34 Unemployment remains high in euro zone Unemployment rates (%), seasonal adjusted 12 Euro zone 1 8 US 6 UK 4 Japan Source: Datastream.

35 Payrolls rose by 168, per month in 213 but faltered in March Employment, United States Percent change, year ago Difference from previous month, thousands Absolute change, (right) % change, (left) Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Analytics.

36 Top global cities 213 Source: AFIRE.org.

37 Preferred property types by global investors Identical to 212 #1 Apartment #2 Industrial #3 Retail #4 Office #5 Hotel Source: AFIRE.org.

38 #4 Australia #5 United Kingdom #1 United States #2 Canada #3 Germany Countries providing most stable and secure real estate investments Source: AFIRE.org.

39 Total EB-5 visa usage by year 212* Sources: U.S. Department of State, IIUSA. * As of 3/212.

40 Total EB-5 visa usage by country Top 5 countries, * Percent China S. Korea Great Britain Taiwan Iran Sources: U.S. Department of State, IIUSA. * As of 3/212.