Trends and opportunities across regions: Europe

Transcription

1 Trends and opportunities across regions: Europe Monday, 6 June 2011 Head of Institutional Fixed Income Europe

2 Three themes shaping global opportunities I. Long term: Spheres of influence are shifting among regions II. Mid-term: Global growth and loose monetary policy fuel interest in risky assets III. Short-term: The debt crisis in euro periphery is driving volatility higher Global Fixed Income Seminar

3 Long term: Shifting spheres of influence and a search for stability

4 By 2013, emerging economies will dominate global GDP GDP of advanced vs emerging economies (rhs) = right hand scale Source: Deutsche Bank ; IMF, World Economic Outlook, March 2011 Global Fixed Income Seminar

5 Government finances under pressure Public Debt (expected, as % of GDP) Forecast Source: Deutsche Bank, March 2011 Global Fixed Income Seminar

6 Inflation is a growing concern History points towards monetisation of public debt and inflation ma= moving average Source: Deutsche Bank, March 2011 Global Fixed Income Seminar

7 The universe of stable assets is shrinking Dagong Moody's Standard & Poor's Fitch Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Norway AAA Stable Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Stable Denmark AAA Stable Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Stable Switzerland AAA Stable Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Stable Singapore AAA Stable Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Stable Australia AAA Stable Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Stable New Zealand AAA Stable Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Negative Canada AA+ Stable Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Stable Netherlands AA+ Stable Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Stable China AA+ Stable Aa3 Positive A+ Stable AA- Stable Germany AA+ Stable Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Stable USA A+ Negative Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Stable South Korea AA- Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable AA Stable Japan AA- Negative Aa2 Stable AA Negative AA- Stable UK AA- Negative Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Stable France AA- Negative Aaa Stable AAA Stable AAA Stable Belgium A+ Stable Aa1 Stable AA+ Stable AA+ Stable Russia A Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable BBB Positive Poland A Stable A2 Stable A Stable A Stable Spain A Negative Aa1 Stable AA Negative AA+ Stable Brazil A- Stable Baa3 Positive BBB+ Stable BBB- Positive Italy A- Negative Aa2 Stable A+ Stable AA- Stable Portugal A- Negative A1 Stable A- Negative AA- Negative India BBB Stable Ba1 BBB- Stable BBB- Stable Greece BB Stable Ba1 Stable BB+ Negative BBB- Negative Turkey BB Stable Ba2 Positive BB+ Positive BB+ Stable Iceland BB Negative Baa3 Negative BBB Negative BBB+ Negative Argentina B Stable WR Stable B B Stable Ukraine B Stable B2 Stable BB- Stable B Stable as of 19. November 2010 Source: Dagong, Bloomberg; ratings shown are for local currency Global Fixed Income Seminar

8 Mid-term: Global growth and loose monetary policy fuel risk appetite

9 Economic growth is forecast to improve worldwide Growth is expected to be faster in emerging countries Inflation rates in emerging nations are also likely to be higher GDP growth, % CPI inflation, % F 2011F 2012F F 2011F 2012F G US Japan EA Asia (ex JP) China India EMEA Russia Latam Brazil Industrialized nations Developing nations Global As of: April 20, 2011 Source: DB Global Markets F= Forecast Global Fixed Income Seminar

10 Inflation is trending higher across regions Rising food prices are exacerbating inflation in developing economies Developed markets are starting to see a pickup in inflation Large economies with high share of food in CPI already show elevated inflation rates: China ~ 5% Brazil ~ 6% India ~ 9% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Developed markets inflation: -2% US 2.7% Eurozone 2.7% UK 4.0% -3% 01/07 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 Eurozone UK USA 07/10 01/11 As of: April 15, 2011 Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics Global Fixed Income Seminar

11 Inflation rates are near or even above policy rates Negative real rates very positive for risky assets Global policy rate Global inflation 2 1 Global, real policy rate /01 11/02 11/03 11/04 11/05 11/06 11/07 11/08 11/09 11/10 11/11 F 11/12 F Global policy rate Global inflation Global, real policy rate Dotted lines are Morgan Stanley forecasts As of March 4, 2011 Source: Morgan Stanley F= Forecast Global Fixed Income Seminar

12 Short-term: The debt crisis in euro periphery is driving volatility higher

13 Debt crisis in euro periphery driving up risk premiums Credit default swaps in Euro region Basis points 1,600 1,400 Greece 1,200 1, Ireland Portugal Jul/ 09 Jan/ 10 Jul/ 10 Jan/ 11 Spain Italy Germany Germany Italy Portugal Spain Ireland Greece Source: Bloomberg, May 2011 Global Fixed Income Seminar

14 Rising fiscal deficits are widespread Government debt levels (% of GDP) Source: EU Commission, Morgan Stanley, May 2011 e= estimate Global Fixed Income Seminar

15 A likely pair: Fiscal deficits and current account deficits Relationship between fiscal and current account positions Source: Haver, Deutsche Bank, March 2011 Global Fixed Income Seminar

16 Result: Greater dependence on foreign investors 2010 net interest payments on government debt Note: Information on foreign vs. domestic based on 2009 data Source: OECD, EuroStat, Deutsche Bank, March 2011 Global Fixed Income Seminar

17 PIGS debt: A burden to overstretched banking system Euro area bank exposure to PIGS (USD billion) Source: BIS, CIRA, Citi, May 2011 Global Fixed Income Seminar

18 Some European banks could experience difficulty Disclosed exposure of European banks to Greece Source: Morgan Stanley, * Estimates for Credit Suisse and UBS, May 2011 Global Fixed Income Seminar

19 EU institutions offer some support ECB: European Central Bank Based on Article 13 and receives its capital from national central banks of the 27 EU Member States (quotes) Max. Volume: unlimited -- Instruments: secondary market-bond-purchases EFSM: European Financial Stabilization Mechanism Based on Article 122 and is available to and jointly guaranteed by all 27 EU Member States Max. Volume: EUR 60 bn -- Instruments: Loans to requesting EMU Members States EFSF: European Financial Stability Facility Guarantees 15 EMU Member States excl. requestors According to quotes "Pari passu" to other lenders Max. Lending volume: EUR 440 bn (post step-up) Instruments: Loans & primary market-bond-purchases ESM: European Stability Mechanism Guarantees as well as "callable capital" 17 EMU Member States According to quotes similar to ECB Senior to every lender except of IMF Max. Lending volume: EUR 500 bn Instruments: Loans & primary market-bond-purchases Timeline May 2010: Set up mechanisms Jan 2011: first issuance End of Jun 2013: EFSF replaced by ESM EFSF era ESM era Global Fixed Income Seminar

20 Due to EU support, attractive opportunities exist EU/EFSF agency bonds and German bad bank bonds PRICING Date ISSUER ISIN NOTIONAL COUPON MATURITY TENOR YEARS TO MATURITY ISSUE Midswaps+ Issue Bunds+ CURRENT Mid-Swaps+ CURRENT Bunds+ Book Size 05. Jan 11 EU EU000A1GKVZ9 EUR 5,00bn 2,500% 04. Dez , ,2-8,7 43,1 EUR 20bn 25. Jan 11 EFSF EU000A1G0AA6 EUR 5,00bn 2,750% 18. Jul ,1 6 56,1-1,9 52,8 EUR 44.5bn 17. Mrz 11 EU EU000A1GN002 EUR 4,60bn 3,250% 04. Apr ,8 8 45,1 8,6 52,2 EUR 15bn 22. Mrz 11 EAA DE000EAA0A63 EUR 1,50bn 3,125% 29. Mrz , ,1 16,6 66,2 EUR 2.2bn 24. Mai 11 EU EU000A1GRVV3 EUR 4,75bn 3,500% 04. Jun , ,5 12,6 50,7 >EUR 11 bn 25. Mai 11 EU EU000A1GRYT1 EUR 4,75bn 2,750% 03. Jun ,0 0 49,1-2,0 48,6 >EUR 10bn 26. Mai 11 FMS DE000A1KRHP2 EUR 3,00bn 2,750% 03. Jun , ,1 52,4 > EUR 11bn Current pricing and spreads as of June 01, 2011 For illustrative purposes only. Not intended as a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Please see Important Information. Global Fixed Income Seminar

21 Implications for investors I. Long term: Assets are likely to flow out of developed into emerging markets. As investors seek stability and shelter from inflation, low duration strategies, alternatives and portfolio diversification are likely to be key themes II. Mid-term: The combination of global growth and policy rates that are below or only slightly higher than inflation will spark investors interest in risky assets III. Short-term: The eurozone debt crisis is driving volatility higher, and some banks are likely to experience difficulty. But due to EU support, interesting opportunities exist for astute investors Global Fixed Income Seminar

22 Important information is the brand name for the institutional asset management division of Deutsche Asset Management, the asset management arm of Deutsche Bank AG. In the US this relates to the asset management activities of RREEF America L.L.C.; in Germany: RREEF Investment GmbH, RREEF Management GmbH, and RREEF Spezial Invest GmbH; in Australia: Deutsche Asset Management (Australia) Limited (ABN ) Australian financial services license holder; in Japan: Deutsche Securities Inc. (For DSI, financial advisory (not investment advisory) and distribution services only.); in Hong Kong: Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft, Hong Kong Branch (for Direct Real Estate business), and Deutsche Asset Management Hong Kong (for Real Estate Securities Business), in Singapore, Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Limited (Company Reg. No N) and in the United Kingdom, Deutsche Alternative Asset Management (UK) Limited; Deutsche Alternative Asset Management (Global) Limited, in addition to other regional entities in the., and Deutsche Asset Management (UK) Limited; in addition to other regional entities in the. This material was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. It is intended for informational purposes only and it is not intended that it be relied on to make any investment decision. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation or an offer or solicitation and is not the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. Neither Deutsche Bank AG nor any of its affiliates, gives any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this document. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, no member of the, the Issuer or any officer, employee or associate of them accepts any liability (whether arising in contract, in tort or negligence or otherwise) for any error or omission in this document or for any resulting loss or damage whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise suffered by the recipient of this document or any other person. The views expressed in this document constitute Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates judgment at the time of issue and are subject to change. The value of shares/units and their derived income may fall as well as rise. Past performance or any prediction or forecast is not indicative of future results. This document is only for professional investors. No further distribution is allowed without prior written consent of the issuer. Any forecasts provided herein are based upon our opinion of the market as at this date and are subject to change, dependent on future changes in the market. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Investments are subject to risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Certain Deutsche Asset Management investment strategies may not be available in every region or country for legal or other reasons, and information about these strategies is not directed to those investors residing or located in any such region or country. I (06/11) Global Fixed Income Seminar