The Forecast for Emerging Markets
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1 The Forecast for Emerging Markets Monday, April 27, :30 AM - 10:45 AM Moderator Komal Sri-Kumar, Managing Director, Chief Global Strategist, TCW Group Inc.; Senior Fellow, Milken Institute Speakers Hüseyin Erkan, Chairman and CEO, Istanbul Stock Exchange George Hoguet, Global Investment Strategist, Senior Portfolio Manager, State Street Global Advisors Vikas Kapoor, President and CEO, iqor Inc. Vasant Prabhu, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. Jean-Louis Scandella, Emerging Markets Fund Manager, Comgest Group 1
2 Global real GDP growth World real GDP growth is projected to decline by 1.3% in 2009 Percent change, year-to-year Source: World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, April Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Projected 2
3 Developing countries growth forecasts Percent change from previous year 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% % 2.2% 3.3% 4.3% 3.7% 6.2% 2.4% 4.1% 5.3% 6.6% 0.0% -2.0% -2.0% -0.6% -4.0% Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific Source: World Bank, March
4 China and India growth forecasts Real GDP growth (%) China Projected India High income OECD countries Source: World Bank, March
5 Global deflation risk has now risen Percent change of consumer prices (year-to-year) Percent 10 8 Emerging and developing economies 6 4 World Source: World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, April Advanced economies 5
6 Will emerging markets lead a global rebound? China, Brazil and Russia stock markets ended the first quarter 2009 with gains Stock market returns, quarter-to-quarter (%) 50 Shanghai SE A share Brazil Bovespa 30 Russiarts S&P Source: Datastream. Q Q Q Q Q
7 Will emerging markets lead a global rebound? Year-to-date stock market returns (%) Year-to-date returns (%), as of April 21, Advanced economies Emerging markets 39.1 China Shanghai Composite Taiwan Taiex Russia RTS Brazil Bovespa India BSE Sensex Argentina Merval Mexico Bolsa U.S. S&P 500 U.K. FTSE 100 Japan Nikkei 225 U.S. Dow Jones Germany DAX Source: Bloomberg. 7
8 Consumer confidence index China s consumer confidence dropped slightly amid the U.S. credit crisis Index (1985 =100) China consumer confidence index U.S. consumer confidence index Feb Feb 2009 Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China, Bloomberg. 20 8
9 Emerging market stocks fell by more than those in industrialized nations January 2005 = Emerging markets 200 EU Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 World Oct 07 Jan 08 U.S. Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Source: Datastream. 9
10 Emerging market bond spreads widened dramatically Yield difference between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasuries Basis points U.S. financial crisis started, August 2007 Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, September 14, B rated BB rated Investment grade 0 Jan 2007 Apr 2007 Jul 2007 Oct 2007 Jan 2008 Apr 2008 Jul 2008 Oct 2008 Jan 2009 Apr 2009 Source: JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global). 10
11 Performance of emerging bond markets by region Quarterly total return of JP Morgan bond index (in percent) Percent (quarter-to-quarter) Middle East Asia Latin America Africa Europe Q4 2009Q1 Source: JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global), The Milken Institute. 11
12 Foreign exchange reserves (in US$ billions) Most recently available data, as of March 2009 China Japan Russia Taiwan India South Korea Brazil Eurozone Hong Kong Singapore 376 (5.7%) 294 (4.4%) 238 (3.6%) 203 (3.0%) 203 (2.9%) 191 (2.9%) 177 (2.7%) 164 (2.5%) 980 (14.8%) 1946 (29.3%) Source: Bloomberg US$ Billion (% of world total reserves) 12
13 Real effective exchange rate movement Percentage change; most recently available data as of March 2009 Advanced economies (change from 02/08 to 02/09) Emerging markets (change from 12/07 to 12/08) Sweden UK Canada Australia Euro US New Zealand Japan Hungary Poland Turkey Mexico India S. Africa S. Korea China Sources: Datastream, International Financial Statistics. 13
14 Foreign exchange rate vs. U.S. dollar Emerging Asia US$ per local currency (Jan 2008 = 100) 120 Chinese yuan Indonesian rupiah Philippine peso Indian rupee S. Korean won 50 Mar 2008 Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2009 Source: Datastream. 14
15 China, India and U.S. stock markets These markets lost far more than half of their value from the peak Percentage lost in value from the peak 5-15 Dow Jones: - 54% (3/9/2009: 6,547) Sources: Bloomberg, the Milken Institute. Bombay SENSEX index: % (3/9/2009: 8,160) Shanghai SE index: -72% (11/4/2008: 1,793) Months after the peak 15
16 Capital flows to emerging markets suffer large declines in 2008 US$ billions Emerging Asia Middle East Q Sources: International Monetary Fund. Emerging Europe Latin America 16
17 World trade volume World trade volume is projected to decline by 11% in 2009 Percent change, year-to-year 15 Projected World trade volume (goods and services) Source: World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, April
18 Vikas Kapoor s Slides 18
19 B.P.O. industry segments Business Specific Services Functional Services Other Business Financial Services: 9% Services: 6% Insurance Processing: 5% Payment Processing: 11% Other Functional Services: 8% HR: 8% CRM Services: 21% ARM Services: 12% Help Desk: 6% Other Voice & Services Finance & Accounting: 10% 4% Voice Services Total = $150+ Billion 19
20 Voice services growth Growth EBITDA Margin CAGR: 13.4% ` 20
21 Valuation volatility 11.2x 13.0x 12.4x 14.0x 9.9x 10.5x 8.8x 7.1x 6.7x 7.6x 5.2x 8.0x 8.1x 6.9x 4.5x 3.6x 6.0x 6.3x 6.6x 6.3x 5.3x 4.9x 4.9x 5.0x 4.4x4.5x 3.7x 5.2x 6.8x 8.4x 9.5x 7.9x 6.9x 6.4x 4.5x Mar 00 Jun 00 Sep 00 Dec 00 Mar 01 Jun 01 Sep 01 Dec 01 Mar 02 Jun 02 Sep 02 Dec 02 Mar 03 Jun 03 Sep 03 Dec 03 Mar 04 Jun 04 Sep 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 Jun 05 Sep 05 Dec 05 Mar 06 Jun 06 Sep 06 Dec 06 Mar 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Sep 08 Note: Universe consists of Convergys, TeleTech, ICT Group, Sykes Enterprises and APAC Customer Services. 21
22 Value chain: insight or fallacy? As India's top companies get more sophisticated at taking over outsourced work from U.S. and European multinationals, they're finding that the lowest end of the business -- call centers -- just doesn't pay anymore. While outsourced call centers are here to stay, some are likely to migrate to locales closer to the markets they serve. Some jobs may migrate to the Philippines, which has a close cultural affinity with America 22
23 Lessons from other industries Employment Thousands Profits $ Millions ROE Percent % 1,800 11, % n/a % 23
24 Country performance comparison Philippines Cost $/hour 5.9 Quality Score 8 Attrition Percent 49% India % Canada % US % 24
25 The Canadian Cameo Canada 2004 Jobs (iqor) 1,200 Exchange Rate (300) 1.01 India
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Please scroll to find the 2018 and 2019 global fund holiday calendars. 2018 Exchange-Traded fund holiday Vanguard Ireland-domiciled ETFs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1 2 5 12 15 25 9 12 14 15 16 19 28 20 29