APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
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1 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China China HSBC Industrial Production Growth (YoY%) Industrial Production Growth (YoY%) US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Real GDP growth (QoQ%, saar)* Real GDP growth (QoQ%, saar)* US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China *For some economies, annualised GDP data were estimated by UOBAM. For India, data are in year-on-year percentages (YoY%). Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 9 June 15. UOB Asset Management
2 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Inflation - CPI (YoY%) EMERGING ECONOMIES Inflation - CPI (YoY%) US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 9 June 15. Central Banks Interest Rates Country Interest Rate Current Rate (%pa) Latest Meeting Change at Latest Mtg (bp) Last Change Next Meeting Jun 15 United States Fed Funds Target Rate US.5 9 Apr 15 1 Dec (-75bp) 1 Jun 15 Eurozone Refinance Rate.5 15 Apr 15 Sep 1 (-1bp) 3 Jun 15 Japan BOJ Overnight Call Rate.1 17 Jun Dec (-bp) United Kingdom UK Official Bank Rate.5 1 Jun 15 5 Mar 9 (-5bp) Jun 15 Brazil Brazil Selic Target Rate Apr Apr 15 (+5bp) 3 Jun 15 Russia Russia Refinancing Rate Announcement.5 13 Sep Sep 1 (+5bp) India Repurchase Rate 7.5 May 15 Mar 15 (-5bp) China 1 Year Benchmark Lending May 15 (-5bp) South Africa South Africa Repo Avg Rate Jun Jul 1 (+5bp) 3 Jul 15 Source: Bloomberg, as at June 15 Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
3 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 1 MARKET PERFORMANCE DEVELOPED MARKETS EMERGING MARKETS Equity Indices (Rebased 1 on 31 December 13) Equity Indices (Rebased 1 on 31 December 13) USA 1.5% Japan 1.9% AC World 9.5% EM 3.% Europe.5% Asia EX Japan 1.% EM 3.% EM Latin AM -1.7% EM Europe -3.7% Fixed Income Indices (Rebased 1 on 31 December 13) Fixed Income Indices (Rebased 1 on 31 December 13) Asia 11.3% High Yield.1% Sovereigns 11.7% Emerging Mkts 1.9% Inv Grade 1.% Corporate.% High Yield.1% 97 9 Inv Grade -.1% SG Govt -.7% G7 GBI -3.5% Sovereigns -.% 97 9 Commodity Indices (Rebased 1 on 31 December 13) Dollar Spot (Rebased 1 on 31 December 13) Gold -1.3% Industrial Metals -1.7% Agriculture -3.5% GSCI Light -3.7% Energy -1.% Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 9 June 15. UOB Asset Management
4 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 EQUITY MARKET INDICATORS DEVELOPED MARKETS EMERGING MARKETS Earnings Revision by Regions for FY Earnings Revision by Regions for FY Australia Europe US World Canada Japan Revisions in previous mths Revisions last mth % Change Brazil Latin America India China Emerging Markets AC Asia Ex Japan EMEA Russia Revisions in previous mths Revisions last mth % Change Earnings Revision by Sectors for FY Earnings Revision by Sectors for FY Energy Materials Industrials MSCI World Telecom Utilities Cons Staples IT Financials Cons Discr Health Care Revisions in previous mths Revisions last mth Materials Telecom Cons Discr Energy Industrials MSCI Emerging Markets Health Care Financials Cons Staples Revisions in previous mths Utilities Revisions last mth IT % Change % Change Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 9 June 15. Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
5 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 3 VALUATION Developed Markets Earnings Yield Ratio* Emerging Markets Earnings Yield Ratio* Mean +1SD, 3.3x May-15,.x Mean,.1x Mean +1SD,.x May-15, x Mean, 1.7x Mean -1SD, 1.1x 1. Mean -1SD,.9x.5.. Apr-99 Apr- Apr-1 Apr- Apr-3 Apr- Apr-5 Apr- Apr-7 Apr- Apr-9 Apr-1 Apr-11 Apr-1 Apr-13 Apr-1 Apr-15 Apr-99 Apr- Apr-1 Apr- Apr-3 Apr- Apr-5 Apr- Apr-7 Apr- Apr-9 Apr-1 Apr-11 Apr-1 Apr-13 Apr-1 Apr-15 *Mean and SD are based on data from P/BV vs ROE by Region P/E vs Growth by Region P/BV-FY1 (X).5x.x 1.5x World AC World Europe Canada Australia Latin America Japan Asia Ex Japan US PER FY (X) 17x 1x 15x 1x 13x 1x 11x Australia Japan US World Europe AC World Asia Ex Japan Canada Latin America EMEA 1.x 9% 1% 11% 1% 13% 1% 15% 1% 17% ROE - yr Forward Avg. (%) 1x EMEA 9x 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 1% EPS CAGR FY1-3 (%) P/BV vs ROE by Sector P/E vs Growth by Sector P/BV-FY1 (X).x Healthcare.x Consumer Staples 3.x 3.x IT Consumer Discr.x.x Industrials.x AC World Telecom Svcs 1.x Utilities Materials 1.x Energy Financials.x 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 1% ROE - yr Forward Avg. (%) PER (FY).x 19.x 1.x Consumer Staples Healthcare 17.x Energy 1.x Industrials Telecom Svcs Consumer Discr 15.x 1.x Utilities IT AC World Materials 13.x 1.x Financials 11.x 1.x % % 1% 1% 1% % % 3% EPS CAGR FY1-3 (%) Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 9 June 15. UOB Asset Management
6 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 FIXED INCOME MARKET INDICATORS Developed Markets 1-Year Government Yield (%) Emerging Markets 1-Year Govenment Yield (%) US Euro Japan UK Brazil Russia India China Jun1 Jun1 Developed Markets Real Government Yield (%) Emerging Markets Real Government Yield (%) Year Govt Bond Yield CPI Real Govt Bond Yield Year Govt Bond Yield CPI Real Govt Bond Yield US Australia Switzerland France Eurozone Germany Japan -13 Emerging Markets (USD) Yield and Credit Spread Asia (USD) Yield and Credit Spread.5 JPMorgan EMBI Yield (%) JPMorgan EMBI Spread (bps) - RHS 5. JACI Yield (%) JACI Spread (bps) - RHS Jun1 3.5 Jun1 Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 9 June 15. Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
7 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 5 Emerging Markets (Local Currency) Bond Yield Asia (Local Currency) Bond Yield JPMorgan GBI-EM Bond Yield (%) HSBC Asian Local Bond Yield (%) Jun1 3. Jun1 CURRENCIES Dollar Spot (Rebased 1 on 31 December 13) G-1 FX against US Dollar % change versus USD from 31 Dec 1 to 9 May Swiss Franc British Pound Japanese Yen Norwegian Dollar Australian Dollar Canadian Dollar Swedish Krona New Zealand Dollar Euro Danish Krone Emerging Markets FX against US Dollar Asia FX against US Dollar % change versus USD from 31 Dec 1 to 9 May 15 % change versus USD from 31 Dec 1 to 9 May Russian Ruble -.3 Mexican Peso -5. South African Rand -5.5 Polish Zloty -.3 Colombian Peso -7.1 Hungarian Forint -1. Turkish Lira -1. Brazilian Real Taiwanese Dollar Philippines Peso Chinese Renminbi Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Singapore Dollar South Korean Won Thai Baht Japanese Yen Malaysian Ringgit Indonesian Rupiah Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 9 June 15. UOB Asset Management
8 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY Third Quarter 15 COMMODITY MARKET INDICATORS Brent Crude Oil Price and Production Agriculture Price (USD) Bloomberg OPEC Crude Oil Production Output/Saudia Arabia DOE EIA US Crude Oil Production Brent Crude Oil (USD) - RHS 9 Corn Wheat Soyabeans - RHS 1, Millions Barrels/Day ,3 1, 1,1 1, Precious Metal Price (USD) Copper Price (USD) 1,7 1,5 1,3 1,1 Gold Silver - RHS LME Copper Inventories LME Copper Spot - RHS Tonnes (Thousands) ,5, 7,5 7,,5, 5,5 5, USD per tonne Aluminum Price (USD) Iron Ore Price (USD) LME Aluminium Inventories LME Aluminium Spot - RHS, 1 China Iron Ore Ports Inventory Australia CIF Prices - RHS 1 Tonnes (Millions) 5 3 1,1, 1,9 1, 1,7 USD per tonne Tonnes (Millions) USD per tonne 1, Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 9 June 15. Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
16 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Industrial
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