Kazakhstan in a global context

Transcription

1 28 March 2017 Kazakhstan in a global context Analyst Contacts: Yerassyl Berkimbayev y.berkimbayev@tengricap.com Dmitriy Sheikin d.sheikin@tengricap.com Leila Kulbayeva l.kulbayeva@tengricap.com Tengri Capital, JSC: +7 (727) Contents: Kazakhstan economic news 2 Global economic news 3 Equities 4 Credit 5 Bonds 6 Money markets 7 Currencies 8 Commodities 9 Dollar funding 10 Events calendar 11 Summary Kazakhstan economic news» Tsesnabank would offer its shares at the KASE on two thousand tenge (Page 2) Global economic news» Saudi Arabia lowers income tax for Saudi Aramco from 85 to 50 percent (Page 3) Stock Markets» Nikkei grew 1.04 percent, as investors believe the slower inflation in the does not need quicker interest rate increase from FED (Page 4)» Russian stocks dropped with MICEX losing 1.30 percent, due to stronger ruble (Page 4) Credit Markets» Markit itraxx Europe Crossover value increased by 0.24 bp to (Page 5)» Markit itraxx Asia ex-japan IG decreased 0.36 bp (Page 5) Government Bond Markets» South African bond yield added 0.33 bp, after South African President Jacob Zuma s order for Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan to cancel an investor roadshow in London and the, decreasing the nation s credibility (Page 6) Money Markets» Indian interbank effective rate (1d) went down 0.05 bp (Page 7)» Russian interbank effective rate (1w) decreased 0.04 bp (Page 7) Commodities» Price of zinc plummeted 2.47 percent to $2,750.5 per ton, most metals corrected, after investors hedged from riskier assets to safer assets like metals (Page 9) The information provided herein is NOT intended as investment advice. When making investment decisions investors are recommended to perform their own independent analysis and consider the information and assessments found in this report as only a single factor in decision-making. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION, DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.

2 Kazakhstan economic news Tsesnabank would offer its shares at the KASE on two thousand tenge On 24 th of March 2017, the Board of Directors of Tsesnabank JSC made a decision on placement of the bank s common shares. Bid price for a common share will be two thousand tenge. The bank plans to place 1.050m of its common shares. The shareholders of the bank have the right of pre-emption. The shareholders have a period of 30 day from the date of publication of the bank s statement, when they can apply for acquisition of the bank s placed shares. All unrealized shares would be offered for a placement through an auction - open trades on the KASE among an unlimited range of investors, no later than 30 th of May Figure 1: Tsesnabank's Assets and Equity (KZTbn) 2, Assets (LHS) Equity (RHS) , , , Source: NBRK March 28,

3 Global economic news Saudi Arabia lowers income tax for Saudi Aramco from 85 to 50 percent Saudi Arabia decreased the tax rate paid by a state oil producer as a step to prepare the company for IPO. Saudi Arabia plans to sell five percent of the company next year in IPO, as the kingdom estimates could value the business at about $2trl. Reducing the income tax would free up billions of dollars of cash flow that Saudi Aramco could pass on as higher dividend payments, that is the crucial step for attracting investors. Saudi Aramco s crude reserves are estimated at about 260 billion barrels. Currently company s oilfields produce more than 10m barrels a day, which should satisfy potential investors. Figure 2: World's largest oil reserves (bn barrels) Source: BP Plc's Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 March 28,

4 Equities Nikkei grew 1.04 percent, as investors believe the slower inflation in the does not need quicker interest rate increase from FED Russian stocks dropped with MICEX losing 1.30 percent, due to stronger ruble Figure 3: MICEX Index Table 1: Equity Indices NAME Value 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) YTD (%) 1 year (%) STOXX Standard & Poor s 500 Index 2, MSCI Emerging Markets Index DAX Index 11, FTSE 100 7, Hang Seng Index 24, Shanghai Composite Index 3, Nikkei Index 18, NASDAQ Index 5, MICEX Index 2, KASE Index 1, MSCI Frontier Markets Index Table 2: Implied Volatility Indices NAME Value 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) YTD (%) 1 year (%) VIX Index VFTSE Index VSTOXX Index VDAX Index March 28,

5 Credit Markit itraxx Europe Crossover value increased by 0.24 bp to Markit itraxx Asia ex-japan IG decreased 0.36 bp Figure 4: Markit itraxx Asia ex-japan IG Index Table 3: CDS Indices NAME Value (b.p) 1 Day (b.p) 1 month 1 Year YTD (b.p) (b.p) (b.p) Markit itraxx Europe Index Markit itraxx Europe Crossover Markit itraxx Asia ex-japan IG Index Markit itraxx Japan Index Markit itraxx Europe Senior Financial Markit CDX Emerging Markets Index Markit CDX North America IG Index March 28,

6 Bonds South African bond yield added 0.33 bp, after South African President Jacob Zuma s order for Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan to cancel an investor roadshow in London and the, decreasing the nation s credibility. Figure 5: South African Bond Yield to Maturity Table 4: Developed Market 10Y Bonds NAME Price 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) ASW YTM 1 Day YTM (b.p) (b.p) -Treasury(D) UK-Guilt(GBP) Spanish Government Bond(D) Italian Government Bond(GBP) German Bund(EUR) Japanese Government Bond(JPY) Table 5: Emerging Market 10Y Bonds NAME Price 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) ASW YTM 1 Day YTM (b.p) (b.p) Kazakh Government Bond(D) Polish Government Bond (PLN) Czech Government Bond (EUR) Hungarian Government Bond (HUF) Brazilian Government Bond(D) Chinese Government Bond (D) Indian Government Bond (INR) South African Government Bond (ZAR) Argentinian Government Bond (D) Thai Government Bond (THB) March 28,

7 Money markets Indian interbank effective rate (1d) went down 0.05 bp Russian interbank effective rate (1w) decreased 0.04 bp Figure 6: Interbank Effective Rates Table 6: Monetary Policy Target Rates Target rate Current Previous tenor Rate rate Effective ER 1 Day Rate (ER) (b.p) YTD 1 Year Next (b.p) (b.p) meeting United States o/n /15/2017 Canada o/n /1/2017 Eurozone 1w /9/2017 United Kingdom o/n /16/2017 Switzerland 3m /16/2017 Norway o/n /16/2017 Sweden 1w /27/2017 Kazakhstan 1d /10/2017 Russia 1w /24/2017 Japan o/n n/a /16/2017 China 1y /23/2017 India 1d /6/2017 Korea o/n /23/2017 Hong Kong o/n /17/2017 Singapore o/n /28/2017 March 28,

8 Currencies Indian rupee appreciated 0.57 percent against $, to rupee per $ Brazilian real weakened 0.58 percent Figure 7: $ Exchange Rate YTD(INR per $) Table 7: Exchange Rates against the $ Per 1 $ 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) YTD (%) 1 year (%) Euro Japanese yen British pound Swiss franc Chinese renminbi Kazakh tenge Russian ruble Australian dollar Canadian dollar Mexican peso Brazilian real Singapore dollar Swedish krona Turkish lira Korean won 1, South African rand Polish zloty Czech koruna Hungarian forint Indian rupee Argentinian peso Thai baht Emirati Dirham ICE DXY Dollar Index Trade-weighted Broad Dollar Index March 28,

9 Commodities Price of zinc plummeted 2.47 percent to $2,750.5 per ton, most metals corrected, after investors hedged from riskier assets to safer assets like metals Figure 8: Zinc Price Performance ($/ton ) Table 8: Commodity Prices NAME Price ($) Forward Price ($) 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) YTD (%) 1 year (%) Oil Gold 1, , Copper 5, , Gas Zinc 2, , Uranium n/a Wheat Cotton March 28,

10 Dollar funding EUR 3m xccy gained 4.50 bp GBP 3m xccy increased 3.50 bp Figure 9: 3m Cross-Currency Basis Swaps Table 9: Cross Currency Basis Swaps Basis Swap Rate 1 Day (b.p) 1 month (b.p) 3m D Yield Ask Implied Libor/MS JPY 3m EUR 3m CHF 3m GBP 3m JPY 5Y EUR 5Y CHF 5Y GBP 5Y March 28,

11 Events calendar Date Event/Comment Source/Company 27-Mar-17IFO Business climate index 27-Mar-17IFO Current Conditions index 27-Mar-17GDP q/q and y/y 28-Mar-17Base rate decision 29-Mar-17Overnight repo rate 29-Mar-17Base rate decision 30-Mar-17Central government budget (BRLbn) 30-Mar-17GDP annualised q/q 30-Mar-17CPI (prelim) y/y and m/m 30-Mar-17Sovereign debt to be rated by Fitch 31-Mar-17CPI (prelim) y/y and m/m 31-Mar-17GDP y/y 31-Mar-17GDP q/q 1-Apr-17OILTECH ATYRAU, Kazakhstan Petroleum Technology Conference 3-Apr-17Unemployment rate y/y 3-Apr-17ISM Manufacturing index 5-Apr-17Base rate decision 6-Apr-17CPI y/y and m/m 6-Apr-17Repo and reverse repo rates 7-Apr-17Uneployment rate 7-Apr-17Non-farm and private payrolls 10-Apr-17CPI y/y and m/m 11-Apr-17CPI y/y and m/m 11-Apr-17CPI y/y and m/m 11-Apr-17AtyrauBuild (ITECA) 12-Apr-17Interest rate announcement and Monetary policy report 12-Apr-17PPI y/y 13-Apr-17Base rate decision 13-Apr-17CPI y/y and m/m 13-Apr-17CPI y/y and m/m 13-Apr-17CPI m/m South Korea Hungary Thailand South Africa Brazil Russia France Turkey UK Atyrau, Kazakhstan Italy Poland Switzerland India Norway Sweden UK Atyrau, Kazakhstan Canada China South Korea France March 28,

12 18-Apr-17CPI q/q and m/m 19-Apr-17KAZREALTY, Kazakhstan International Real Estate & Investment Exhibition 21-Apr-17Manufacturing PMI index (prelim) 21-Apr-17Manufacturing PMI index (prelim) 24-Apr-17IFO Business climate index Austria Almaty, Kazakhstan Eurozone 24-Apr-17IFO Current Conditions index 26-Apr-17KZT10bn bond maturity (CCBNKZ 7 ½ 04/26/17 Corp) POWER ASTANA, Kazakhstan International Energy, Electrical equipment and 26-Apr-17Machine building Exhibition Bank Centercredit Astana, Kazakhstan 26-Apr-17Interest rate announcement 27-Apr-17BoJ outlook report 28-Apr-17GDP y/y and q/q 28-Apr-17Unemployment rate 30-Apr-17Exports and Imports y/y 30-Apr-17Trade balance ($bn) 2-May-17Manufacturing PMI index 2-May-17Manufacturing PMI index 3-May-17FOMC meeting 3-May-17FOMC - FED funds rate 4-May-17Composite PMI index Turkey Japan France Brazil South Korea South Korea Eurozone Eurozone March 28,

13 ANALYST CERTIFICATION: The research analyst(s) responsible for authoring this report hereby certifies or certify that (i) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the author(s), while not necessarily representing the views of their employer and (ii) no part of this report was influenced by commercial considerations of their employer. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only. No warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of either the information provided or the conclusions drawn. Opinions reflected in this document may change without notice. Opinions expressed may be different or inconsistent with views reflected in other reports produced by Tengri Capital, and Tengri Capital assumes no obligation to bring such other reports and opinions to the attention of any recipient of this present report. Copyright Tengri Capital, JSC, Nurly Tau 4B, 17 Al-Farabi, Almaty , Kazakhstan. All rights reserved. When quoting please cite Tengri Capital Research. March 28,