Kazakhstan in a global context

Transcription

1 17 March 2017 Kazakhstan in a global context Analyst Contacts: Yerassyl Berkimbayev y.berkimbayev@tengricap.com Dmitriy Sheikin d.sheikin@tengricap.com Leila Kulbayeva l.kulbayeva@tengricap.com Tengri Capital, JSC: +7 (727) Contents: Kazakhstan economic news 2 Global economic news 4 Equities 5 Credit 6 Bonds 7 Money markets 8 Currencies 9 Commodities 10 Dollar funding 11 Events calendar 12 Summary Kazakhstan economic news» Problem Loan Fund (PLF) plans to buy BTA s loan from Qazkom (Page 2)» Mutual trade of Kazakhstan with EAEU (Page 2-3) Global economic news» OPEC s oil cuts may be extended (Page 4) Stock Markets» KASE grew 2.11 percent on the increased prices of commodities, especially metals in the last couple of days (Page 5)» Russian MICEX added 1.09 percent, as the oil prices stopped falling and rebounded back to US$51.7 per barrel (Page 5) Credit Markets» Markit itraxx Asia ex-japan IG lost 1.95 bp (Page 6)» Markit itraxx Europe Crossover reduced 1.31 bp (Page 6) Government Bond Markets» South African and Indian bonds yield dropped 0.12 bp, as the South African rand and Indian rupee advanced the most after the FED increased interest rates (Page 7) Money Markets» Chinese interbank effective rate (1y) increased 0.80 bp, as Chinese Central Bank followed the suit of the FED and raised the interest rate (Page 8) Commodities» Copper prices rose to US$5,901 per ton,as the production of refined copper in China rose to 1.37m tons in Feb., the highest record for the two month (Page 10) The information provided herein is NOT intended as investment advice. When making investment decisions investors are recommended to perform their own independent analysis and consider the information and assessments found in this report as only a single factor in decision-making. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION, DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.

2 Kazakhstan economic news Problem Loan Fund (PLF) plans to buy BTA s loan from Qazkom The deputy chairman of the National Bank, Oleg Smolyakov, said that the half of the assets of Qazkom would be transferred to the government s PLF before the deal with Halyk Bank. More than 50 percent of Qazkom s assets is a loan to BTA Bank that amounts to US$15.7bn. The deputy chairman added that the assets of BTA Bank would be cleared of all legal and financial risks. The assets planned to be proposed to the private sector via Public Private Partnership. The PFL would seek for investors who could manage the assets and use them in business activity. PLF s allocations would not be go in the capital of Qazakom, but would be transferred to clear out BTA Bank s loan from Qazkom s balance. Figure 1: Qazkom's Assets and Loan Book 6, , , , ,501 Assets (KZTbn) 2,482 2,869 Loan Portfolio (KZTbn) 5,155 5,052 3,972 3,802 2,290 2, , A 2014A 2015A 9M2016 Source: NBRK Mutual trade of Kazakhstan with EAEU Committee on Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan issued the preliminary data on the trade turnover of Kazakhstan with the EAEU countries. According to the data, the mutual trade in January 2017 grew 53.6 percent (YoY) and amounted to US$1198.8m. Exports grew 59.2 percent (YoY) and amounted to US$367.4m whilst imports grew 51.3 percent (YoY) up to US$831.4m. Mineral products and metal and metal products amounted to 39.4 percent and 34.8 percent of the exports structure. The share of chemical products amounted to 13.6 percent. Finished food products and products of animal and vegetable origin shared 6.8 percent in the structure. The largest items of the EAEU s imports were mineral products 24.7 percent and machinery/equipment 21.9 percent. The share of metal and metal products and chemical products was approximately the same percent and 14.2 percent of the total. Products of animal and vegetable origin, ready food products amounted to 11.8 percent of the imports structure. March 17,

3 The news is positive since the expansion of the mutual trade indicates economic recovery of the trading economies as well as the expansion of internal consumption of the corresponding countries. Table 1: Mutual trade with EAEU US$m 16-Jan 17-Jan Export Russia Belarus Armenia Kyrgyzstan Import Russia Belarus Armenia Kyrgyzstan Source: Committee on statistics March 17,

4 Global economic news OPEC s oil cuts may be extended The OPEC may extend oil crude production cuts after the agreement expires in June, if the world s oil crude inventories remain excessive, said Saudi Arabia s Energy Minister, Khalid Al-Falih. He added that if companies and investors do not feel confident about the global oil market, the OPEC would prolong its production cuts agreement. The OPEC countries will meet on May 25 to decide whether to continue its production cuts to meet the main goal of the OPEC to stabilize the global oil market. On February, Saudi Arabia increased its output to m. barrels a day, which is above of the agreed ceiling. Overall the OPEC s output in February was 1.39m. barrels a day, which is lower than its reference level. The main threat to the OPEC s plan comes from the US, where production of shale oil is picking up. Figure 2: WTI and Brent prices March 17,

5 Equities KASE grew 2.11 percent on the increased prices of commodities, especially metals in the last couple of days Russian MICEX added 1.09 percent, as the oil prices stopped falling and rebounded back to US$51.7 per barrel Figure 3: KASE Index Table 2: Equity Indices NAME Value 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) YTD (%) 1 year (%) STOXX Standard & Poor s 500 Index 2, MSCI Emerging Markets Index DAX Index 12, FTSE 100 7, Hang Seng Index 24, Shanghai Composite Index 3, Nikkei Index 19, NASDAQ Index 5, MICEX Index 2, KASE Index 1, MSCI Frontier Markets Index Table 3: Implied Volatility Indices NAME Value 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) YTD (%) 1 year (%) VIX Index VFTSE Index VSTOXX Index VDAX Index March 17,

6 Credit Markit itraxx Asia ex-japan IG lost 1.95 bp Markit itraxx Europe Crossover reduced 1.31 bp Figure 4: Markit itraxx Asia ex-japan IG Index Table 4: CDS Indices NAME Value (b.p) 1 Day (b.p) 1 month 1 Year YTD (b.p) (b.p) (b.p) Markit itraxx Europe Index Markit itraxx Europe Crossover Markit itraxx Asia ex-japan IG Index Markit itraxx Japan Index Markit itraxx Europe Senior Financial Markit CDX Emerging Markets Index Markit CDX North America IG Index March 17,

7 Bonds South African and Indian bonds yield dropped 0.12 bp, as the South African rand and Indian rupee advanced the most after the FED increased interest rates Figure 5: Indian Bond Yield to Maturity Table 5: Developed Market 10Y Bonds NAME Price 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) ASW YTM 1 Day YTM (b.p) (b.p) US-Treasury(USD) UK-Guilt(GBP) Spanish Government Bond(USD) Italian Government Bond(GBP) German Bund(EUR) Japanese Government Bond(JPY) Table 6: Emerging Market 10Y Bonds NAME Price 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) ASW YTM 1 Day YTM (b.p) (b.p) Kazakh Government Bond(USD) Polish Government Bond (PLN) Czech Government Bond (EUR) Hungarian Government Bond (HUF) Brazilian Government Bond(USD) Chinese Government Bond (USD) Indian Government Bond (INR) South African Government Bond (ZAR) Argentinian Government Bond (USD) Thai Government Bond (THB) March 17,

8 Money markets Chinese interbank effective rate (1y) increased 0.80 bp, as Chinese Central Bank followed the suit of the FED and raised the interest rate Figure 6: Chinese and Indian Interbank Effective Rates Table 7: Monetary Policy Target Rates Target rate tenor Current Rate Previous rate Effective Rate (ER) ER 1 Day YTD Next (b.p) (b.p) 1 Year (b.p) meeting United States o/n /15/2017 Canada o/n /1/2017 Eurozone 1w /9/2017 United Kingdom o/n /16/2017 Switzerland 3m /16/2017 Norway o/n /16/2017 Sweden 1w /27/2017 Russia 1w /24/2017 Japan o/n n/a /16/2017 China 1y /23/2017 India 1d /6/2017 Korea o/n /23/2017 Hong Kong o/n /17/2017 Singapore o/n /28/2017 March 17,

9 Currencies Russian ruble appreciated 1.03 percent against US$ as the oil prices stabilized, so did the Kazakh tenge with a 0.47 percent increase Figure 7: US$ Exchange Rate YTD(RUB per US$) Table 8: Exchange Rates against the US$ Per 1 US$ 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) YTD (%) 1 year (%) Euro Japanese yen British pound Swiss franc Chinese renminbi Kazakh tenge Russian ruble Australian dollar Canadian dollar Mexican peso Brazilian real Singapore dollar Swedish krona Turkish lira Korean won 1, South African rand Polish zloty Czech koruna Hungarian forint Indian rupee Argentinian peso Thai baht Emirati Dirham ICE DXY US Dollar Index Trade-weighted Broad US Dollar Index March 17,

10 Commodities Copper prices rose to US$5,901 per ton,as the production of refined copper in China rose to 1.37m tons in Feb., the highest record for the two month Figure 8: Copper Price Performance (US$/ton ) Table 9: Commodity Prices NAME Price (US$) Forward Price (US$) 1 Day (%) 1 month (%) YTD (%) 1 year (%) Oil Gold 1, , Copper 5, , Gas Zinc 2, , Uranium n/a Wheat Cotton March 17,

11 Dollar funding GBP 3m xccy grew 3.75 bp CHF 3m xccy added 2.75 bp Figure 9: 3m Cross-Currency Basis Swaps Table 10: Cross Currency Basis Swaps Basis Swap Rate 1 Day (b.p) 1 month (b.p) 3m USD Yield Ask Implied Libor/MS JPY 3m EUR 3m CHF 3m GBP 3m JPY 5Y EUR 5Y CHF 5Y GBP 5Y March 17,

12 Events calendar Date Event/Comment Source/Company 10-Mar-17 Unemployment rate US 10-Mar-17 NBRK rate decision Kazakhstan 10-Mar-17 Industrial production YoY India 13-Mar-17 Tax Collections (BRL bn) Brazil 13-Mar-17 Current account (USD bn) Turkey 14-Mar-17 CPI MoM, YoY Germany 14-Mar-17 CPI MoM, YoY Sweden 15-Mar-17 Federal Reserve FOMC meeting US 15-Mar-17 AGRITEK ASTANA, International Exhibition for Agriculture Astana, Kazakhstan 15-Mar-17 CPI MoM, YoY US 16-Mar-17 BOJ Policy Statement Japan 16-Mar-17 BOE rate decision UK 21-Mar-17 CPI MoM, YoY UK 21-Mar-17 Nauryz Meiramy Kazakhstan 22-Mar-17 Nauryz Meiramy Kazakhstan 23-Mar-17 Nauryz Meiramy Kazakhstan 24-Mar-17 GDP q/q France 24-Mar-17 Manufacturing PMI index Eurozone 24-Mar-17 Manufacturing PMI index US 24-Mar-17 CBR rate decision Russia 1-Apr-17 OILTECH ATYRAU, Kazakhstan Petroleum Technology Conference Atyrau, Kazakhstan 11-Apr-17 AtyrauBuild (ITECA) Atyrau, Kazakhstan 19-Apr-17 KAZREALTY, Kazakhstan International Real Estate & Investment Exhibition Almaty, Kazakhstan 26-Apr-17 KZT10bn bond maturity (CCBNKZ 7 ½ 04/26/17 Corp) Bank Centercredit 26-Apr-17 POWER ASTANA, Kazakhstan International Energy, Electrical equipment and Machine building Exhibition Astana, Kazakhstan March 17,

13 ANALYST CERTIFICATION: The research analyst(s) responsible for authoring this report hereby certifies or certify that (i) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the author(s), while not necessarily representing the views of their employer and (ii) no part of this report was influenced by commercial considerations of their employer. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only. No warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of either the information provided or the conclusions drawn. Opinions reflected in this document may change without notice. Opinions expressed may be different or inconsistent with views reflected in other reports produced by Tengri Capital, and Tengri Capital assumes no obligation to bring such other reports and opinions to the attention of any recipient of this present report. Copyright Tengri Capital, JSC, Nurly Tau 4B, 17 Al-Farabi, Almaty , Kazakhstan. All rights reserved. When quoting please cite Tengri Capital Research. March 17,