Global Construction 2030 Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago Chile. 4-6 October 2017

Transcription

1 Global Construction 2030 Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago Chile 4-6 October 2017

2 Graham Robinson Global Construction Perspectives Global Construction 2030 is the fourth in a series of global studies of the construction and engineering industry published by Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics graham@constructglobal.com

3 Medium Term Trends in GDP Global Regions 8,0 5,9 Average annual % change 4,0 4,2 4,1 3,7 1,1 1,9 1,4 1,2 0, Developed Regions Emerging Regions

4 12,0 Regional GDP Growth Average annual % change 8,0 4,0 0,0 2,1 1,7 1,4 1,6 1,7 1,3 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,0 1,1 0,7 Western Europe North America Asia Pacific (Developed) 3,3 3,4 2,0 2,0 1,9 2,5 2,1 1,5 Eastern Europe Latin America 8,7 6,3 5,2 4,6 Asia Pacific (Emerging) 4,3 3,4 3,0 3,0 Middle East North Africa ,1 1,7 3,7 3,5 Sub- Saharan Africa

5 Asia Pacific (Developed) 11% GDP by Region in 2017 GDP at 2014 prices and exchange rates US$bn Eastern Europe 7% Latin America 7% North America 24% Asia Pacific (Emerging) 22% Western Europe 23% Middle East and North Africa 4% Sub-Saharan Africa 2% Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

6 Asia Pacific (Developed) 11% GDP by Region in 2030 GDP at 2014 prices and exchange rates US$bn Eastern Europe 6% Latin America 7% North America 24% Asia Pacific (Emerging) 31% Western Europe 23% Middle East and North Africa 4% Sub-Saharan Africa 2% Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

7 Global Construction Outlook 2030 Key Growth Drivers

8 8 GDP and Population Growth 10 countries Average annual % change 6,5 5, ,2 China 1,7 0,8 1,0 US India 1,0 0,0 Germany GDP 1,9 UK 0,6 2,5 1,6 0,9-0,2 Russia Australia Population 1,4 0,6 Brazil 2,6 1,5 Saudi Arabia 3,4 2,5 Nigeria

9 Population Structure 10 countries % of working population

10 Urbanization Trends 10 countries

11 Rise of Middle Income Households households with incomes above US$35,000 (millions)

12 Quality of Existing Infrastructure 10 Countries Global Ranking out of 137 countries US Germany UK Australia China India Russia Brazil Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Index 2017/18 (published 27 September 2017) Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics Analysis Saudi Arabia Nigeria

13 Budget Deficit: Ability to Fund Infrastructure

14 2017 Global Market: Country Split US$10.7 trillion at 2014 prices and exchange rates Russia 3% Indonesia 3% France 3% UK 3% Other 41% Canada 3% Germany 3% India 4% Japan 5% US 12% China 20% Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

15 2030 Global Market: Country Split US$16.6 trillion at 2014 prices and exchange rates Russia 2% Australia 2% Other 38% France 2% UK 2% Canada 2% Germany 3% Japan 4% India 7% China 26% US 12% Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

16 Contribution to Global Growth US$bn at 2014 prices and exchange rates Korea 1% Mexico 1% Canada 1% Turkey 1% Indonesia 6% Other 34% US 10% China 34% India 12% Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

17 Increasing Importance of Emerging Markets

18 Construction Outlook 2030 Global Super Powers

19 16,0 12,0 11,9 China: Growth Rates for Construction Output ,3 11,7 12,6 Average annual % change 8,0 4,0 6,7 6,0 5,6 4,3 4,0 5,9 6,1 4,8 4,2 4,6 3,4 3,3 0, Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

20 8,0 4,0 0,0-4,0-8,0-12,0-7,5 US: Growth Rates for Construction Output Average annual % change -1,1 3,0-3,2 5,4 4,4 0,5 3,7 3,0 2,4 2,4 2,7 2,8 2,6 2,0 2, Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

21 12,0 India: Growth Rates for Construction Output Average annual % change 8,0 4,0 5,7 6,9 5,8 6,4 5,2 4,2 4,7 4,5 7,8 8,8 7,4 7,7 6,9 7,1 7,4 6,9 0, Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

22 12,0 Indonesia: Growth Rates for Construction Output Average annual % change 8,8 8,0 7,3 6,9 6,5 5,7 6,0 6,0 6,0 6,3 6,5 6,0 6,4 5,9 5,6 5,8 5,7 4,0 0, Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

23 Regional Construction Outlook 2030 Regional Growth Latin America

24 12,0 9,6 Brazil: Growth Rates for Construction Output Average annual % change 8,0 5,5 5,3 4,0 2,9 3,2 3,2 3,1 1,8 1,9 1,8 1,8 0,0-4,0 0,0-0,7-1,3-1,1-2, Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

25 8,0 Mexico: Growth Rates for Construction Output Average annual % change 4,0 0,0 0,7 4,1 3,4 3,3 3,0 3,2 3,3 3,0 3,2 2,2 2,4 2,4 1,6 1,0 0, ,2 Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

26 12,0 Colombia: Growth Rates for Construction Output Average annual % change 8,0 7,8 4,0 2,6 3,4 3,2 0, Total

27 4,0 Argentina: Growth Rates for Construction Output ,0 Average annual % change 3,1 2,5 1,0 0, Total

28 8,0 Chile: Growth Rates for Construction Output Average annual % change 4,4 4,0 3,0 3,6 3,7 3,2 3,1 2,4 2,2 3,1 3,2 3,1 2,8 3,5 3,5 3,3 0,0 0, Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

29 12,0 Peru: Growth Rates for Construction Output ,3 Average annual % change 8,0 4,0 4,4 4,0 0,0 0, Total

30 6,0 5,0 4,0 Regional Summary Average annual % change 5,4 3,7 4,3 3,0 2,0 1,5 2,7 1,5 2,1 2,1 1,0 0,0 Western Europe North America Asia Pacific (Developed) Eastern Europe Latin America Asia Pacific (Emerging) Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

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