RETAIL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AS IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOT YET SUSTAINED
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1 RETAIL MARKET REPORT: 2Q RETAIL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AS IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOT YET SUSTAINED KEY INDICATORS: Key retail market indicators continue to send mixed signals. Monthly retail sales (excluding motor vehicles and parts) gains continue to be positive but remain below recent historical levels. The consumer sentiment index as measured by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan improved consistently throughout the second quarter, ending at levels not seen in six years. Overall, high consumer confidence has yet to translate into stronger sales gains as cautiousness remains. VACANCY: Overall, retail vacancy rates are tightening, albeit modestly. Power Centers lead the major segments at 5.6% vacancy or a decrease of 30 bps over last quarter. Shopping Centers (Community, Neighborhood, and Strip centers) continue to report the highest vacancy at 10.2%, but the segment is showing strength as rates are down 10 bps over last quarter and down 60 bps YOY. SUPPLY: New retail deliveries and starts continue to fall. Approximately 8.2 million sf of retail space was delivered in 2Q, a 5.1% decrease over the previous quarter but up 5.4% YOY. Retail construction starts also declined once again in 2Q to 4.8 million sf or down 53.2% for the quarter and down 61.9% YOY. Prepared by: DEMAND: 2Q marked the 16 th consecutive quarter of positive retail absorption at 21.2 million sf. This absorption figure looks healthy against last quarter s 16.7 million sf absorbed, s average quarterly absorption of 12.7 million sf and 12.3 million sf in. RENTAL RATES: Although increases were moderate, retail rents continued to notch slightly higher this quarter. Effective rents increased by approximately 1.2% annualized for 2Q. The Power Center and Shopping Center segments are demonstrating the most stability in asking rates which have been relatively flat since 4Q. The Mall sector continues to experience downward pressure on average rental rates. Brian M. Schmitt PNC Real Estate 249 Fifth Avenue Pittsburgh, PA brian.schmitt@pnc.com CAPITALIZATION RATES: Retail cap rates displayed declines from Q1, with Mall cap rates declining 12 bps to 6.55%, Power Center cap rates declining 2 bps to 7.06% and Strip Center properties dropping 17 bps to 7.08%. Overall retail investment was robust at $12.2B in Q2, a 56.0% increase from Q1, and a 12.0% increase YOY. PNC is a registered service mark of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. This document is for general informational purposes only and is not intended as specific advice or recommendations. The information contained herein is gathered from public sources believed by PNC to be accurate and reliable at time of publication, but neither PNC nor any of its affiliates is providing any guaranty or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of that information or of the conclusions presented in this document. In addition, markets do change. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. The information set forth herein does not constitute legal, tax or accounting advice. You should obtain such advice from your own counsel or accountant. Any reliance upon the information provided herein is solely and exclusively at your own risk.. The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. All rights reserved. pnc.com/realestate
2 KEY RETAIL INDICATORS At mid-year, the higher taxes and spending cuts that arrived in do not appear to be having the drastic long term effect on consumers that was originally feared. While 1Q retail sales results were mixed, 2Q results indicate that consumers are spending amid continued economic uncertainties. In April, retail sales (excluding motor vehicles and parts) registered a 2.6% gain over April sales, a positive but unspectacular report. May brought better news as retail sales would grow by 4.0% YOY. Unfortunately, this upward trend would slow as June sales, while positive, would grow by 2.8% YOY. Early 3Q (July) data indicates stronger YOY retail sales growth of 5.1%, providing optimism as consumers Year-Over-Year Percentage Change 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% close in on the important back-to-school shopping season. In total dollars, 2Q retail sales reached $888.7 billion, an increase of 3.1% over with retail sales of $861.7 billion. Overall, retail sales gains this quarter were solid. However, YOY sales growth remains constrained below 5.0% monthly or well below levels seen in the mid-2000s and even following the - recessionary period. According to PNC s National Economic Outlook (July ), economic growth will pick up in the latter half of the year as the weight from tax increases and spending cuts fades and growth returns overseas. This should bode well for a retail sector still seeking a sustained boost. Source: Census Bureau, Economy.com, PNC Real Estate Research U.S. Retail Sales (Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts) Not Seasonally Adjusted Recession December - June The adjacent chart illustrates the index of consumer sentiment as measured by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan. 2Q started off with a dip in confidence as the consumer sentiment index dropped to 76.4, a 2.8% decline over the previous quarter and flat against April. Subsequent months this quarter have indicated strong growth in confidence as indices reached 84.5 in May and 84.1 in June. Notably, these indices are representative of some of the highest levels seen in six years. Early 2Q results indicate further gains in confidence as the sentiment index reached 85.1 in July. An index this high has not been reported since July. Consumer Sentiment Index Index of Consumer Sentiment - July Recession December - June Source: Thomson Reuters, University of Michigan With strong consumer sentiment through mid-, the fiscal crisis does not appear to have deterred consumers significantly. According to Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan, this sustained high level of confidence suggests an expansion of consumer spending in the year ahead. This would be a welcome scenario for the retail sector as confidence gains reported thus far have not yet translated into higher levels of consumer spending and increased retail demand. Looking ahead, concerns over interest rate gains could hamper confidence and associated spending. pnc.com/realestate Page 2
3 RETAIL MARKET TRENDS Vacancy Vacancy continues to tighten, albeit slowly. According to Reis, 2Q showed a 10 bps drop in vacancy over 1Q to 10.5%. CBRE reported a 20 bps drop in vacancy to 12.3% compared to 12.5% last quarter. While rates still remain elevated, there are signs that the metric is starting to move lower. Forecasts indicate a protracted recovery with vacancy rates expected to remain at or above 10.0% through Negligible changes were reported at the segment level during the second quarter. The Shopping Center segment (combined categories of Community, Neighborhood, and Strip centers) remains the retail sector with the highest average vacancy at 10.2% as of 2Q, down 10 bps over the previous quarter and down 60 bps over the same period one year ago. Steady employment gains and improved confidence have done little to accelerate demand for retail space in this segment. The Power Center segment reported a decline in vacancy in 2Q. Vacancy fell to 5.6%, down 80 bps YOY. Vacancy for the segment has now been in decline for the past seven consecutive quarters. Vacancy rates for the Mall segment (including Regional, Super Regional, & Lifestyle Centers) remained flat this quarter at 6.0%. Vacancy for the segment has remained in the 5.5% to 6.0% range for the past four years. While Class A properties enjoy tight vacancy, Class B/C properties with limited opportunity for redevelopment or repositioning continue to weigh on the segment overall despite limited new supply. According to CoStar, coastal markets such as New York City, San Francisco, Miami, and Boston are maintaining very tight retail market fundamentals. The majority of the top 15 markets with the lowest overall retail vacancy rates reported flat or declining rates YOY. Markets with the highest retail vacancy remain clustered in western and central markets. Phoenix, Las Vegas, Detroit, and Atlanta continue to report double digit or near double digit retail vacancy rates. On a positive note, the majority of lagging markets are seeing a tightening of retail vacancy thanks to very limited new additions to supply and slight improvements in local economic conditions. 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 11.5% 10.5% 9.5% 8.5% 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% CBRE REIS pnc.com/realestate Page Q Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q U.S. Retail Vacancy by Segment 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q Shopping Centers: 10.2% 4Q 1Q TOTAL RETAIL VACANCY RATES - 2Q 75 Largest U.S. Retail Markets Malls: 6.0% Power Centers: 5.6% bp Change over LAGGING MARKETS Vacancy 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q bp Change over LEADING MARKETS Vacancy New York City 2.2% 40 Phoenix 10.8% -100 Hawaii 3.1% -40 Las Vegas 10.1% -70 San Francisco 2.8% -10 Atlanta 9.7% -40 Miami-Dade Co. 4.0% 0 Detroit 9.6% -60 Pittsburgh 5.1% -90 Memphis 9.6% 50 Salt Lake City 4.9% -60 Sacramento 9.4% -70 Boston 4.4% 0 Kansas City 9.0% -50 Albany 4.7% -10 Inland Empire 8.7% -10 Long Island 4.8% -10 Dayton 8.5% -50 San Diego 5.1% -40 Cleveland 8.5% 30 South Bay/San Jose 5.3% -50 Fresno 8.5% 30 Washington, D.C. 4.7% 20 St. Louis 8.5% 50 Austin 5.4% -50 Cincinnati 8.4% -70 East Bay/Oakland 4.9% 10 Birmingham 8.3% -60 Minneapolis 5.3% -20 Chicago 8.3% -10 ; PNC Real Estate Market Research VACANCY Q1 Q2 FORECAST
4 Supply As shown in the adjacent chart, new retail construction deliveries fell once again in 2Q. Deliveries declined to just 8.2 million sf for the 50.0 quarter, down 5.1% over the 45.0 previous quarter. Deliveries remain suppressed and well below the average of 25 million sf added quarterly between 1982 and. New retail construction starts took a precipitous drop in 2Q and remain at historically low levels. For the quarter, starts totaled 4.8 million sf or a decrease of 53.2% over the previous quarter Compared to the same period one year ago, construction starts were down 61.9%. Despite a recent spike in deliveries in 4Q, both starts and deliveries will likely remain low in the short term until sustained economic growth returns. Although limited starts and deliveries are indicative of continued struggles for, PNC Real Estate Research the sector, the lack of development *Select markets has served to help sustain the retail segment in the face of weakened demand. Markets While new retail construction remains low nationally, select metro areas are reporting notable additions to supply. New construction in the most active construction markets in 2Q represented a total of 19.0 million square feet or approximately 53.0% of the 35.9 million square feet of space currently under construction nationwide. The Las Vegas market reported the 30% 2.1 most space under construction as a 0.4% % 0.9 percentage of existing supply at % % 1.8% as of 2Q. Approximately % of total retail space underway 0.0% 0% in Las Vegas is at the 1.5 million sf Shops at Summerlin Centre super regional mall project whose construction previously stalled under difficult economic conditions., PNC Real Estate Research Dallas-Ft. Worth and Washington, D.C. follow Las Vegas with construction underway representing 1.0% of each market s current retail supply. The Dallas- Fort Worth market led in total retail construction with 3.8 million sf underway. A major portion of this square footage is comprised of the 1.9 million sf Nebraska Furniture Mart retail store and distribution center currently under construction with delivery expected in 2Q2015. Much of the new construction currently underway in the 15 top markets is substantially preleased which will help keep vacancy rates stable in light of new deliveries. pnc.com/realestate Page 4 Millions of Square Feet New Construction as a % of Existing Supply 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 2Q Philadelphia 3Q 4Q 1Q % of Existing Supply % Preleased Los Angeles Houston Atlanta 2Q 3Q Chicago 4Q 1Q 2Q Construction Starts & Deliveries* - 3Q 4Q Construction Starts Phoenix 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Deliveries 1Q 3Q Construction Activity - Top Construction Markets 4Q 1Q Listed in Order of New Construction as a % of Existing Supply 100% 1.0 Sf Under Construction (Millions) Boston Seattle Tampa/St Petersburg Westchester/S. Conn. St. Louis Miami-Dade County Washington, D.C. 3.8 Dallas/Ft Worth 1.8 Las Vegas 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 2Q % Preleased
5 Demand 2Q marked the 16 th consecutive quarter of positive retail absorption nationwide. Absorption was reported at approximately 21.2 million sf for the quarter or an increase of 4.5 million sf over Q1. Second quarter absorption is running ahead of the quarterly averages reported over the last four years. In comparison to the 21.2 million sf absorbed in 2Q, average quarterly absorption was reported at 12.7 million square feet in, 12.3 million sf in, and 13.7 million square feet in. While it is too early to predict an annual trend, solid first and second quarter results in comparison to recent years is generating optimism for the remainder of. While early results are positive nationally, wide variation still exists at the market level. Markets Nine out of the top ten U.S. retail markets (by total GLA) experienced positive absorption over the last 12 months. The Dallas-Ft. Worth market saw the highest level of annual retail absorption at 6.0 million sf, up from 4.6 million compared to one year ago. Only three markets, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Boston reported a notable decline in TTM absorption as of 2Q compared to the same period one year ago. Philadelphia reported the largest annual decline with -794,200 sf absorbed as of 2Q compared to 2.6 million sf as of. Selected additional retail markets have fared well with most reporting similar or greater levels of TTM retail absorption in 2Q over the same period in the previous year. The Denver market reported a dramatic increase with 2.5 million sf absorbed in versus 1.2 million sf in. The Minneapolis market also saw strong TTM absorption this quarter of 1.8 million sf compared to 431,000 sf in. Phoenix and Las Vegas, whose retail markets have suffered from low absorption and high vacancy since the recession, are now showing improvement. Over the last 12 months, retail absorption in Phoenix reached 3.3 million sf compared to an also strong 2.3 million sf in. Net Absorption (000s sf) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - (10,000) Net Absorption (000s sf) 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000-2,000,000 Net Absorption (000s sf) 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , ,000 NYC (Manhattan) U.S. Quarterly Average Net Retail Absorption CoStar 2Q: 21,191,036 sf Q1 Q2 Chicago Los Angeles Long Island Philadelphia Houston Washington, D.C. Orange County Net Retail Absorption - Largest U.S. Markets Net Retail Absorption 2Q TTM Net Retail Absorption TTM Detroit Atlanta Boston Dallas/Ft. Worth Net Retail Absorption - Additional U.S. Markets Net Retail Absorption 2Q TTM Net Retail Absorption TTM Miami-Dade Denver Minneapolis Charlotte Las Vegas Baltimore Seattle Phoenix pnc.com/realestate Page 5
6 Rental Rates Both CBRE and Reis reported moderate effective rent growth of approximately 1.2% in 2Q (annualized). According to Reis, the figure is unchanged from last quarter while CBRE indicates a return to growth after last quarter s negative rent growth. A return to effective rent growth has only recently been reported as of following several years of decline brought on by the recession and an associated reduction in retail spending. Both CBRE and Reis are forecasting effective rent growth of 1.2% to 1.4% for compared to just 0.5% in. 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2000 CBRE REIS 2001 EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Q1 ANNUALIZED Q2 FORECAST For the major retail segments, CoStar reports flat or slight declines in asking rates. In 2Q, average Power Center rental rates were reported at $16.74 per sf, a decrease of 0.1% over 1Q and up 0.4% YOY. This segment is showing resiliency in the face of several major big box closings in recent years who typically anchor these centers. At $14.02 per square foot, average rates for Shopping Centers were flat against the previous quarter but are down 1.6% YOY. Mall rental rates were down 3.5% over last quarter and down 4.8% YOY. Despite the strength of the Class A product in this segment, it is clear that the inferior B/C product continues to be a drag on rental rates as landlords attempt to fill space in lower quality assets. Average Rental Rate per Square Foot (NNN) $26.00 $24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 U.S. Retail Asking Rates by Segment Malls: $16.79 Power Centers: $16.74 Shopping Centers: $14.02 Markets According to CoStar, thirty out of the 75 largest U.S. retail markets saw a YOY increase in retail asking rates this quarter. Long Island led with a 6.9% increase in rates, followed by Baltimore at 5.7%, and Birmingham at 4.8%. Westchester/Southern Connecticut and Northern New Jersey rounded out the top 5 with YOY rental rate increases of 4.2% and 4.0% respectively. Despite these jumps, increases were softer overall for the quarter. This quarter s top markets reported rate increases of 2.0% to 7.0% whereas last quarter s top markets reported increases of 2.0% to 10.0%. Lagging markets this quarter are widely distributed throughout the U.S. The Columbia, SC market saw the greatest decline in average retail rental rates with a drop of 12.0% YOY followed by Las Vegas which was down 5.9%, and Pittsburgh which saw rates decline by 5.8%. $12.00 pnc.com/realestate Page 6 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q TOTAL RETAIL RENTAL RATES - 2Q 75 Largest U.S. Retail Markets Rental Rate (NNN) 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q Pct. Chg. Over Rental Rate (NNN) Pct. Chg. Over LEADING MARKETS LAGGING MARKETS Long Island $ % Columbia, SC $ % Baltimore $ % Las Vegas $ % Birmingham $ % Pittsburgh $ % Westchester/S. Conn. $ % G'Boro/Winst.-Salem $ % Northern New Jersey $ % Stockton/Modesto $ % Boston $ % Toledo $ % Broward County $ % Knoxville $ % Buffalo/Niagara Falls $ % Orlando $ % Denver $ % Cincinnati $ % San Francisco $ % Greenville/Spartan. $ % Raleigh/Durham $ % Albuquerque $ % Omaha/Council Bluffs $ % St. Louis $ % Providence $ % Austin $ % San Diego $ % Sacramento $ % Palm Beach County $ % Salt Lake City $ % ; PNC Real Estate Market Research 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q
7 RETAIL CAPITALIZATION RATE TRENDS RETAIL CAP RATES Average Quarterly Annual Mall bps 6.55% 1.8% 3.3% Value Strip bps 7.08% 2.4% 2.9% Value Power 2 18 bps 7.06% 0.3% 2.6% Value Retail cap rates displayed declines from Q1, with mall cap rates declining 12 bps to 6.55%, power center cap rates declining 2 bps to 7.06% and strip center properties dropping 17 bps to 7.08%. Retail cap rates continued to decline on an annual basis, $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 Retail Sales Volume ($ Billions) Through Q2 with mall cap rates falling by 22 bps, strip centers by 20 bps and power $5 $12.2 centers by 18 bps. $ Overall retail investment was robust at $12.2B in Q2, a 56% increase from Q1, and a 12% increase YOY. Retail properties are shrugging off the recent hike in interest rates, as sales of significant retail properties were strongest in June and cap rate trends remain stable, according to RCA. RCA reports that the pipeline of pending deals is strong and reported transaction yields in-line with current averages % Capitalization Rates Retail Mall - United States Through Second Quarter 9.50% 8.50% 7.50% 6.52% - PwC Mall 40 bps, -5.8% 6.40% - RERC Mall 20 bps, -3.0% 6.73% - RCA Mall 4 bps, +0.7% 6.50% 5.64% - NCREIF Retail 5.50% 3 bps, -0.5% Note: NCREIF data represents current value retail cap rates. Sources: PwC Real Estate Investor Survey, Real Capital Analytics, RERC, NCREIF, PNC Real Estate Market Research 10.50% 9.50% Capitalization Rates Retail Power and Strip Center - United States Through Second Quarter 7.49% - RCA Strip Center 42 bps, -5.4% 7.30% - RERC Power Center 10 bps, +1.4% 8.50% 6.95% - PwC Strip Center 7.50% 6.50% 5.50% 9 bps, -1.3% 6.67% - PwC Power Center 31 bps, -4.4% 6.80% - RERC Strip Center 0 bps, 0.0% 5.64% - NCREIF Retail 3 bps, -0.5% Note: NCREIF data represents current value retail cap rates. Sources: PwC Real Estate Investor Survey, Real Capital Analytics, RERC, NCREIF, PNC Real Estate Market Research pnc.com/realestate Page 7
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