Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
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1 Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
2 PwC ULI 12 Month Outlook on Trends 37 th Edition 1,800+ Real Estate leaders surveyed 75 Cities
3 Profitability outlook % 60.6% 21.6% Abysmal to Poor Fair Good to Excellent Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015
4 Profitability outlook 1.1% % 24.9% Abysmal poor Fair Good excellent Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
5 Profitability outlook still improving 1.1% 2016 Expectations are high 84.0% 14.9% Abysmal poor Fair Good excellent Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
6 Look what we found Expectations are high % 14.9%???? 1.6% 14.4% 84.0% 84.0% Abysmal poor Modestly poor modestly good Good excellent Abysmal poor Modestly poor modestly good Good excellent Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
7 Deja Vu all over again? Expectations are high % 14.9% % 14.4% 84.0% 84.0% Abysmal poor Modestly poor modestly good Good excellent Abysmal poor Modestly poor modestly good Good excellent Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
8 Emerging Trends Barometer: Buy? Hold? Sell? Peak Buy Peak Hold Peak Sell Buy Sell Hold Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
9 2016 Emerging Trends 18-Hour cities 2.0 Next stop: The suburbs what is a suburb? Office: A Barometer of Change A housing option for everyone Parking for change 9
10 Infrastructure: Network it! Brand it! 2016 Emerging Trends Food is getting bigger and closer Consolidation breeds specialization We raised the capital, now what do we do with it? The return of the human touch 10
11 18-Hour Cities 2.0
12 Emerging Trends outlook ranking change Markets moving up Survey respondents favor growth and competitive business and living costs Markets moving down Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
13 2013 San Francisco New York City San Jose Austin Houston Boston Washington D.C. Dallas/Fort Worth Orange County Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
14 Out of the top 10 Washington D.C. (24) New York City (15) Orange County (14) Miami (19) Houston (30) Boston (13) Raleigh/Durham (11) 2016 Dallas/Fort Worth Austin Charlotte Seattle Atlanta Denver Nashville San Francisco Portland Los Angeles Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
15 Change from Previous Cycle 18-Hour cities 2.0 Dollar Transaction Volume 600% 500% 400% Expansion Recovery Cost of Doing Business Cost of Living 300% 200% Expansion % % 100% 0% -100% Recession % % -200% 2010 top 10 Markets 2016 to 10 Markets Source: Moody s Analytics, Real Capital Analytics
16 Next stop: The suburbs what is a suburb? Generations are on the move, with millennials the most footloose
17 Next stop: The suburbs. what is a suburb? 80% 70% 60% 62% Where Do People Currently Live? 67% 71% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Millenials (18 to 35) Generation X (36 to 49) Baby Boomers (50 to 69) City Suburb Source: U.S. Census Bureau
18 Who is likely to move? Somewhat or Very Likely to move in 5 years All Adults 48% Millennials 73% Gen Xers 42% Baby Boomers 37% War/Silent 25% Homeowners 34% Renters 73%
19 Next stop: The suburbs. what is a suburb? It s all about the kids! (average age) (millions) % 41% 39% 37% 35% 33% 31% 29% 27% National probability of Living in city center by age of child Female Millenials (Ages 25-35) Average Age of First Birth 25% Age Source: City Observatory, National Vital Health Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau
20 Office: Barometer of Change Source: CoreNet Global, PwC
21 ? 253 sf per worker 225 sf per worker 138 sf per worker Number of workers per 1,000 sf Source: Corenet Global, PwC
22 10-year labor force poses the question Who is in charge? Persons 600, , , ,000 - (200,000) (400,000) (600,000) (483,520) 11.3% 13.8% 44.3% 30.6% 00 s 10 s % of total labor market (800,000) (1,000,000) (894,136) Leaving Joining Shortage Millennials Boomers Gen X Gen Z Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PwC
23 It s 2026 Who s in charge? Millennials 44.3% Gen X 30.6% 13.8% Boomers 11.3% Gen Z Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PwC
24 Small Business, Big Impact Company size: 1-49 employees Company size: employees 46.5% 37.8% Company size: 6.0% 9.8% Company size: % of total employment growth since employees 1,000+ employees Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, PwC
25 Good Bones? 30.0% 35, % 80 s 30,000 25, % 40 s 70 s 90 s 00 s 20, % 50 s 60 s 90s 00s 10 s 15, % 10s 10, % 5, % - Total Office Employment (000s) Percent of Total Office Inventory by Decade of Construction Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PwC
26 A Housing Option for Everyone Can you rent the American dream?
27 Rent as % of Median Income Richmond Jacksonville Virginia Beach/Norfolk Philadelphia Dallas/Fort Worth Chicago Charleston Houston Orlando US Nashville Greenville Deltona/Daytona New Orleans Washington DC-District CapeCoral/Fort Myers/Naples Boston San Jose Palm Beach San Francisco Fort Lauderdale New York-Manhattan Miami Los Angeles New York-Brooklyn 25.1% 31.4% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Nashville Jacksonville Charlotte Salt Lake City Milwaukee Orlando US Tucson Charleston Sacramento Washington DC-District Boston Fort Lauderdale Palm Beach Seattle Miami CapeCoral/Fort Myers/Naples Los Angeles San Diego New York-Brooklyn Orange County San Jose Oakland/East Bay San Francisco New York-Manhattan Own as % of Income 33.5% 37.6% 20.0% 70.0% 120.0% 170.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Core Logic
28 RENT as % of Income OWN as % of Income US 31.4% US 37.6% Jacksonville 21.% Jacksonville 33.5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Core Logic
29 90.0 Homeownership: Share of Each Generation U.S. Total < Source: U.S. Census Bureau
30 Parking for Change Parking was once a must-have..building owners will now have options
31 Parking for Change 100.0% Parking- free commuting (change 2000 to 2013) 90.0% 85.0% Percent of Drivers Commuting by Automobile 87.9% 86.5% 86.7% 86.3% 85.8% 84.1% 75.0% 50.0% 25.0% 80.0% 75.0% 77.7% 00 s 10 s 70.0% 0.0% -25.0% 65.0% 64.0% 60.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, Department of Transportation
32 Delaying Licensure Only 44% obtained a driver s license with in 12 months of the minimum age Only 72% obtained a license before turning 18 Top Reasons for not getting a drivers license: 1. Not having a car 2. Ability to get around without driving 3. The cost of gasoline 4. Driving was too expensive 5. just didn t get around to it Source: AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety
33 We raised the capital, now what do we do with it?
34 $ millions We raised the capital, now what do we do with it? $300 $250 Institutional dry powder and REIT Cash $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Source: Prequin, Quarterly real estate update, Q2 2015, Federal Reserve Flow of Funds
35 Prospects for Commercial/Multifamily Subsectors in 2016 Fulfillment Center Warehouse industrial Medical office Apartment rental moderate Apartment rental high Limited-service hotels Neighborhood/comm. shopping centers Central city office R&D Industrial Student housing Full-service hotels Apartment rental affordable Suburban office Institutional rentals of SF houses Power centers Regional malls Warehouse industrial Fulfillment Center Medical office Apartment-high income Limited-service hotels Apartment rental moderate Student housing Central city office R&D Industrial Neighborhood/community shopping centers Apartment rental affordable Full-service hotels Institutional rentals--sf houses Suburban office Power centers Regional malls
36 2016 Local Outlook: Jacksonville Local Economy Development Opportunity Capital Availability Investor Demand Public Private Investment Local Development Community Average National Average
37 2016 Sector Outlook: Jacksonville #53 # #51 #66 #67 # Office Retail Industrial Multifamily Hotel Housing Jacksonville National Average
38 2016 South: Local Economy
39 2016 South: Investor Demand
40 2016 South: Capital Availability
41 2016 South: Development Opportunity
42 2016 South: Local Outlook
43 Download your copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016 uli.org/et16 pwc.com/us/et PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the US member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.
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