COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET AND INDUSTRY OUTLOOK THE BIG PICTURE 2019 AND BEYOND
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1 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET AND INDUSTRY OUTLOOK THE BIG PICTURE 2019 AND BEYOND
2 10-Year Economic Lookback 2007 The Height of the Last Cycle 25.4 Million Increase in Population Since Million More Households Than Million More Jobs Than bps Decline of Unemployment Rate to 3.7% 2.8 Million More Job Openings Than 2007 (6.9 Million) $5.7 Trillion GDP Growth Since 2007 (Japan s Total) 120 bps Decline in Inflation Rate (PCE) to 2.2% 90 bps Decrease in 10-Yr. Treasury Yield to 3.2% 10,000 Baby Boomers Turn 65 Every Day 12,000 Millennials Turn 21 Every Day Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS, U.S. Census Bureau, BEA, Federal Reserve Board
3 Employment Growth Durable and Remarkably Stable Quarterly Job Growth (Millions) Total: 2,188, Forecast: 2,300, Million +8.2 Million Million** 96 Months of Continuous Gains* Monthly Average: 199,000 Jobs * * Through 3Q Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
4 National Employment Rank by Metro Y-O-Y Absolute Change Through August 2018 Top 10 Metros Absolute Change Percent Change Dallas-Fort Worth 116, % Houston 113, % Phoenix 75, % Seattle-Tacoma 73, % Los Angeles 64, % Washington, D.C. 64, % Atlanta 53, % New York 53, % Orlando 52, % Inland Empire 51, % U.S. Total 2,417, % Bottom 10 Metros Absolute Change Percent Change West Palm Beach 3, % Milwaukee 6, % Columbus 9, % Cincinnati 9, % Fort Lauderdale 11, % Northern NJ 11, % St. Louis 12, % Orange County 13, % San Antonio 13, % Nashville 13, % U.S. Total 2,417, % Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
5 Impact of Tax Reform Significant reduction of corporate and personal tax rate should spur investment and expansion = More Inflation Pressure Key tax provisions critical to commercial real estate retained 1031 Exchange, Mortgage Interest Deduction, Depreciation Pass-through entity 20% deduction increases after tax yield, could boost market liquidity Reduced corporate taxes and accelerated depreciation could boost commercial real estate space demand Unfavorable for residential housing and high-tax states
6 THERE ARE RISKS - DESPITE FAVORABLE ECONOMIC BACKDROP
7 U.S. Has More Job Openings Than People Seeking Work Challenge of Skills Mismatch Job Openings/Unemployed (Millions) Job Openings Unemployed * * Unemployed through September; job openings through July Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
8 Interest Rates: Key Driver of Future Economic Performance 16% 12% 6 7 8% % 0% * Through October 03 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve Board
9 Long-Term Yield Spread An Indication of Recession? Spread: 10yr Note and 3mth Bill (Bps) * * Through October 03 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve
10 Exports: Major Force in the U.S. Economy As Measured by Contribution to GDP 16% 13.9% Contribution to GDP 12% 8% 4% Long-Term Average: 7.0% 0% * * Through 2Q 2018 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BEA
11 OFFSETTING STRENGTHS ARE HARD TO IGNORE
12 Length of Current Cycle Over-Shadowed by Pace of Growth Expansion Cycle Duration Percent Job Growth Expansion Cycle Periods 1991 to to to 2018* 1983 to to to to to to to to Average to to to to to to 2018* 1970 to to to to to % 24% 23% 19% 16% 15% 12% 9% 8% 6% Average 33% Months 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Percent Growth * Through September Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
13 Record Profits and Rising Corporate Investment Support Economic Cycle Extension $600 Corporate Profits** Fixed Investment in Equipment 30% Corporate Profits ($ Bil.) $450 $300 $150 $0 15% +8.1% 0% -15% -30% * Y-O-Y Change in Investment * Through 2Q ** Trailing 12-month average Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BEA
14 U.S. Core Retail Sales Building Steady Momentum - Growth Supporting Economy Retail Sales (Bil. Aug Dollars) $370 $340 $310 $280 $ * * Through August Trailing 12-month average; adjusted for inflation using core PCE Core retail sales excludes auto and gasoline sales Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, BEA +16%
15 Long-Term 10-Year Treasury Trends 16% 10-Year Treasury Rate 12% 8% 4% 0% * * Through October 9 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve
16 Completions/Household Growth (Mil.) Housing Market Provides Solid Economic Support Due to Drop in New Construction Single-Family Completions Multifamily Completions Household Growth Oversupply: 2.6M * Undersupply: 2.0M * 19* * Forecast Trailing 24-month average for household growth Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, RealPage, Inc.
17 U.S. Commercial Real Estate: Healthy Supply/Demand Balance Despite 8th Year of Recovery 20% 100% 87.3% Vacancy Rate 15% 10% 5% 5.2% 4.8% 13.6% 4.8% 10.0% Occupancy Rate 75% 50% 25% 66.6% 0% 0% Apartment Retail Office Industrial Self-Storage Seniors Housing Hotel * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, RealPage, Inc., CoStar Group, Inc., STR, Inc., Union Realtime LLC, NICMap
18 U.S. Average Price Trends $160 $300 Avg. Price per Unit (000s) $120 $80 $40 +44% +10% Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. $225 $150 $75 +56% +28% +20% +19% +10% +7% $0 $0 Apartment Hotel Self-Storage Seniors Housing * Through 2Q Includes sales $1 million and greater; $2.5 million and greater for hotels; ST=Single Tenant; MT=Multi-Tenant Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics ST-Retail Industrial MT-Retail Office
19 U.S. Commercial Real Estate: Competitive Yields 8% Average Yield (Cap Rate) 6% 4% 2% 0% U.S. CRE Yield U.S. Treasury Canadian Treasury S&P 500 Dividend UK Treasury French Treasury As of October 3, 2018 Treasury rates for 10-year treasuries Commercial real estate yield (cap rate) includes apartment, retail, office, and industrial sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics, Standard & Poor s, Federal Reserve German Treasury Japanese Treasury
20 Commercial Real Estate Avg. Yield vs. 10-Yr. Treasury Spread Tightening 12% Average Cap Rate 10-Year Treasury Average Rate 9% 6% 3% 430 bps 480 bps 480 bps 200 bps 580 bps 310 bps 0% * * Through October 03 Includes apartment, retail, office, and industrial sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics, Federal Reserve
21 Real Estate Has Become Mainstream Investment Vehicle for Institutions, But Still Under-Allocated Institutional Target Allocations to Real Estate 10.3% 10.1% 9.9% 9.6% U.S. Pension Funds Asset Allocations** Real Estate 3.3% Cash 3.2% Other 7.9% Debt 44.4% 9.3% 8.9% $22.5 Trillion Equity 41.2% * Debt Equity Other Real Estate Cash * Forecast ** As of 2016; allocations for Fortune 1000 pension plans; other category includes hedge funds, derivatives, and interest rate swaps; cash category includes cash equivalents and money market instruments; debt category includes insurance instruments Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Cornell/Hodes Weill Allocations Monitor, Willis Towers Watson
22 Real Estate Under-Allocated by Private Investors Percent of Households Holding Assets High-Probability Target Market 64.3% Rental Property Other Real Estate 23.9% 25.5% 20.0% 10.7% 11.4% 8.0% 7.5% Primary Residence Stocks Other Real Estate Rental Property Net Worth $500K+ (21.5M Households) Net Worth $250K-$500K (15.5M Households) * Homeownership rate as of 2Q 2018; other data as of 2013 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau
23 Commercial Real Estate Sales by Price Tranche Move-Up Equity from Private Investors a Key Driver Sales Dollar Volume $10M-$20M 8% $20M+ 9% $1M-$10M 83% $1M-$10M 30% 54,700 Deals $20M+ 56% $438 Billion $1M-$10M $10M-$20M $20M+ $10M-$20M 14% $1M-$10M $10M-$20M $20M+ Trailing 12-months through 2Q 2018 Includes apartment, retail, office, and industrial sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
24 Demographic Trends Provide Triple-Wave of Opportunity Year Forecast 16.2 Million Population (Millions) Year Forecast -133 Thousand 10-Year Forecast 6.0 Million * 24* 28* * 24* 28* * 24* 28* 20 to 34 Year Olds 35 to 55 Year Olds 55+ Year Olds * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, Moody s Analytics
25 Unprecedented Wealth Transfer, Quest For Yield = CRE Capital Flows U.S Population by Age 5.0 $30+ Trillion Wealth Transfer Over the Next 3 Decades $$$ Population (Millions) Age Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau
26 There Should be Less and Less of This.
27 NAVIGATING BETWEEN THE ZONES: PAIN VS. OPPORTUNITY A TIME OF PROFOUND CHANGE
28 Rise of ecommerce Replaces Department Store Dominance 16% Share of Core Retail Sales ecommerce Department Stores Percent of Sales 12% 8% 4% 0% * * Through August; ecommerce sales through July Excludes auto and gasoline sales Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau
29 Consumers Spend More on Dining Out Than on Groceries $64 Grocery Stores Bars and Restaurants Total Sales (Billions) $48 $32 $16 Millennials Gen X Boomers Eat Out at Least Once Per Week: 49% 43% 35% $ * * Through August Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, Outlook on the Millennial Consumer 2014 report, The Heartman Group, Pew Research, Morgan Stanley
30 Successful Retailers in the Internet Age Off-Price Department Store Discount Stores Fitness Warehouse Club Quick-Serve Restaurant Healthcare/ Vision Health and Beauty Grocery Fast Fashion Home Improvement
31 Digital Companies Growing Physical Footprint (Acquired Whole Foods in June 2017) 100+ stores 270+ stores 570+ stores As of August 2018 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Company disclosures
32 Aging Baby Boomers Seeking Yield Boost CRE Investment - Single-Tenant Investments a Good Proxy 55+ Year Olds Single-Tenant Transactions Population (Millions) Year Forecast Million Transaction Activity (000s) % * * * As of 2Q; trailing 12 months through 2Q for transactions Includes sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
33 Commercial Real Estate Cap Rate Trends by Market Type 10% Primary Secondary Tertiary Average Cap Rate 9% 8% 7% 6% 60 bps 220 bps 130 bps 5% * * Through 2Q Includes apartment, retail, office, and industrial sales $1 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
34 Top 5 Trends Impacting Real Estate Services Industry 1. Technology, Automation, Analytics Internal workflow - Client interaction Business intelligence Societal waves (driverless cars, social media, ) Tech/data overload: Being clients guide for strategy/execution 2. Specialization taken to an extreme - Client sophistication, expectations soar 3. Integration of specialized units into a seamless client delivery system Skill sets, expertise forced to keep up more than ever 4. Increased capital inflows into CRE Moving beyond acceptance into a preferred asset class (investor education takes center stage) 5. Competing for talent: Diversity, Inclusion, Training, Connectivity, Retention Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS, U.S. Census Bureau, BEA, Federal Reserve Board
35 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET AND INDUSTRY OUTLOOK THE BIG PICTURE 2019 AND BEYOND
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