State Of The U.S. Industrial Market: 2017 Q2

Transcription

1 State Of The U.S. Industrial Market: 2017 Q2 Copyright 2017 CoStar Realty Information, Inc. No reproduction or distribution without permission. The following information includes projections and analyses that are based on various assumptions by CoStar concerning future events and circumstances, as well as historical and current data maintained in CoStar s database, obtained from public sources or provided by proprietary sources. Actual results may vary materially from the projections presented. The information in this presentation speaks only as of the date(s) referenced and is provided as is. CoStar expressly disclaims any guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, including those of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. You should not construe any of the information herein as investment, tax, accounting or legal advice. page 1

2 Economy page 2

3 Corporate Profit Growth Trending Up Corporate Profits And Business Investment Growth (Y/Y) 70% Corporate Profit Growth (Y/Y) Business Investment Growth (Y/Y) 30% 50% 20% 30% 10% 10% 0% (10%) (30%) (10%) (50%) (20%) (70%) (30%) Corporate Profits Business Investment In Equipment Sources: Moody's Analytics; Federal Reserve; BEA; CoStar Portfolio Strategy page 3

4 Manufacturing Bouncing Back ISM Indices And GDP Growth 70 ISM Index, SA GDP Growth (Annualized) 10% 65 8% 60 6% 4% 55 2% 50 0% 45 (2%) 40 (4%) (6%) 35 (8%) (10%) GDP ISM Non Manufacturing ISM Manufacturing Sources: Moody's Analytics; ISM; BEA; CoStar Portfolio Strategy As of August 2017 page 4

5 Consensus Expectations Coming Back Down To Earth Wall Street Journal Economists Survey GDP Results* 2.7% Consensus GDP Growth Expectation 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% Post-Election Bumps 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun Expectation 2018 Expectation 2019 Expectation Sources: WSJ Economists Survey; CoStar Portfolio Strategy As of June 2017 * Survey Includes Economists from nearly 80 organizations. page 5

6 U.S. Poised For Stronger Growth Contributions To Real GDP Growth 4% 3% 2% Contribution to Real GDP Growth 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 2.2% 1.7% 2.6% 1.6% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 1.4% 2.1% 1% 0% (1%) (2%) (0.3%) (3%) (4%) (5%) (6%) (2.8%) Consumption Business Investment Residential Investment Change in Inventories Government Net Exports Total GDP Sources: Moody's Analytics; BEA; CoStar Portfolio Strategy As of July 2017 page 6

7 Cyclical Employment Growth Appears To Have Peaked Employment Growth & Total Employment 4% 3% 2% Employment Growth (Y/Y) Peak In Job Growth Total Employment (Millions) % 140 0% (1%) 130 (2%) (3%) 120 (4%) 110 (5%) (6%) Total Employment Growth Employment Sources: Moody's Analytics; Conference Board; BLS; CoStar Portfolio Strategy page 7

8 Time For A Raise Wage Growth & Unemployment Rate 2% Unemployment Rate (Inverted) Avg. Hourly Wage & ATL Fed Wage Tracker 6% 3% 4% 5% 5% 4% 6% 7% 3% 8% 2% 9% 10% 1% 11% % Unemployment Rate Avg. Hourly Earnings ATL Fed Wage Tracker Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; CoStar Portfolio Strategy page 8

9 Strong Demand In A Slow Growth Environment Logistics/Light Industrial Demand Vs GDP 6% Absorption & GDP (Y/Y) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Logistics Light industrial GDP * Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Portfolio Strategy *Logistics And Light Industrial As Of 17Q2, GDP As Of 17Q1 page 9

10 No Signs Of Slowing Annual E-Commerce Growth And % Of Retail Sales 12% % Of Total Retail Sales, Ex Auto & Gas Annual Growth 50% 10.5% 10% 40% 8% 30% ipad Launched 6% iphone Launched 20% 4% 10% 2% 0% 0% (10%) E-Commerce as a % of Total Retail Sales, ex Auto & Gas Sources: CoStar Portfolio Strategy; U.S. Department of Commerce Annual % Growth As of 17Q1 page 10

11 A New Trend? Retail Inventories and Sales 1.8 I/S Ratio Retail Inventories, Sales ($ Billions, Monthly, SA) $ $600 $ $ $300 $ $ $0 Inventories Sales I/S Ratio Trend 2012-Present Trend Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Portfolio Strategy As of June '17 page 11

12 Quarter In Review page 12

13 Not All Boxes Are Created Equally Industrial Subtypes Major Industrial Subtype Logistics Light Industrial Component Subtypes Warehouse Loading Dock Clear Office RBA Ratio (SF/Dock) FAR Height Finish Shape Warehouse 25K+ SF <=15K SF <= '+ <20% Box Distribution 200K+ SF <=10K SF <= '+ <5% Box Light Industrial <=120K SF <=15K if 25K+ SF box Any 16'+ <50% Box if <25K SF Light Manufacturing 100K-300K SF 15K+ SF Any 12'-22' <50% Any Distribution As of 14Q2 Light Industrial Light Manufacturing As of 2017 page 13

14 Industrial Leads Fundamentals; Sales Are Down Key Statistics For Major U.S. Property Sectors 2017Q2 Change From Year Ago Supply Demand Occupancy Rent Sales Office 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% 1.7% (1%) Retail 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 2.1% (18%) Apartment 2.1% 1.8% (0.2%) 2.5% (11%) Light Industrial 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 5.9% Logistics 3.3% 3.7% 0.4% 6.9% (6%) *All Industrial page 14

15 Vacancies Lower Than Any Point In The Last Cycle Industrial Vacancy By Building Functionality 16% 14% 12% Vacancy Total High Function Low Function 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 17Q2 Vacancy Previous Cycle Vacancy Trough page 15

16 Big Or Small, Keep Pushing Those Rents! Industrial Rents By Building Functionality 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% Change in Rent (Y/Y) Total 6.9% 6.1% 5.9% High Function 7.6% 7.6% 6.1% 8.1% Low Function 7.2% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% page 16

17 Distribution Buildings Capturing Majority Of Absorption Industrial Net Absorption By Building Functionality 50 Net Absorption (MSF) Total High Function Low Function Q2 page 17

18 Industrial Deliveries - All Distribution Industrial Deliveries By Building Functionality Delivered RBA (MSF) Total High Function Low Function Q2 page 18

19 Record Rent Growth In Many Markets Y/Y Rent Growth Strongest Rent Growth East Bay Inland Empire Long Island Seattle East Bay Sacramento Inland Empire Seattle Nashville Los Angeles Memphis Nashville Sacramento Atlanta Las Vegas 15.9% 13.4% 13.2% 13.2% 11.7% 11.5% 11.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.1% 9.8% 9.6% 9.2% 9.0% 8.9% 0% 10% 20% Weakest Rent Growth (0.7%) Houston 0.5% Kansas City 0.8% Cleveland 1.5% Kansas City 1.6% Houston 1.7% Cleveland 2.3% Indianapolis 2.4% Oklahoma City 2.4% Milwaukee 2.5% Chicago 2.7% Chicago 2.9% Saint Louis 3.0% Milwaukee 3.0% Washington DC 3.1% Richmond (4%) 0% 4% Logistics Light Industrial page 19

20 Biggest Occupancy Swings In Logistics Q/Q Change In Occupancy (Bps) Salt Lake City Columbus OH Jacksonville Jacksonville Salt Lake City Northern NJ Strongest Occupancy Chg Cincinnati Las Vegas Baltimore Norfolk Baltimore San Diego Atlanta Norfolk Pittsburgh Weakest Occupancy Chg (249) (248) (172) (126) (122) (106) (105) (103) (96) (95) (89) (55) (43) (36) (35) (500) (250) 0 Nashville Harrisburg Austin Las Vegas Washington DC Palm Beach Lehigh Valley San Francisco Orlando Miami Indianapolis San Antonio Kansas City San Jose Tampa Logistics Light Industrial page 20

21 Super-Regional Logistics Hubs Lead In Absorption 2017Q2 Net Absorption Strongest Absorption (MSF) Inland Empire 6.2 Atlanta 6.0 Chicago 4.9 Dallas 3.7 Columbus OH 1.4 Cincinnati 2.4 Kansas City 1.9 Saint Louis 1.5 Memphis 1.5 Baltimore 1.4 Philadelphia 1.2 Salt Lake City 1.2 Charlotte 1.2 Seattle 1.1 Phoenix Weakest Absorption (MSF) (1.25) Nashville (0.52) (0.45) Harrisburg Houston (0.39) Indianapolis (0.39) Kansas City (0.37) San Francisco (0.36) Las Vegas (0.31) Northern NJ (0.25) Orange County (0.25) Boston (0.20) Miami (0.17) Saint Louis (0.15) Memphis (0.13) Los Angeles (0.12) San Jose (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 Logistics Light Industrial page 21

22 Top Deliveries No Surprises 17Q2 Deliveries By Metro Inland Empire Chicago Atlanta Dallas Saint Louis Kansas City Memphis Miami Lehigh Valley Harrisburg Nashville Denver Seattle Houston Charlotte Philadelphia Indianapolis Orlando Delivered RBA (MSF) Logistics Light Industrial page 22

23 Construction Becoming More Widespread Industrial Markets With Most Logistics Starts In 17Q2 Industrial Starts (MSF) Dallas Atlanta Chicago Inland Empire Seattle Stockton Memphis Cincinnati Los Angeles Philadelphia Northern NJ Charlotte Portland, OR Edison Minneapolis Logistics Light Industrial page 23

24 Fundamentals page 24

25 The Market Cycle Recovery, Early Expansion, Late Expansion, Contraction OCC RENT OCC RENT OCC RENT OCC RENT Recovery Recovery Early Expansion Late Expansion Contraction Occupancy Rent Retail Light Industrial Logistics Apartment Office page 25

26 Most Markets In Early Expansion Industrial Cycle Chart OCC RENT San Francisco Inland Empire Salt Lake City Lehigh Valley Columbus OH Chicago Reno Cincinnati Atlanta Houston Kansas City Northern NJ East Bay Edison Atlanta Detroit Los Angeles Dallas- FW Chicago Phoenix Northern NJ Saint Louis Edison Lehigh Valley San Francisco Houston Inland Empire Miami Washington, D.C. Dallas -FW Indianapolis Detroit San Jose OCC RENT Palm Beach County OCC OCC RENT 0 0 RENT 0 0 Logistics Light Industrial page 26

27 Logistics Fundamentals In Equilibrium Logistics National Index Fundamentals Annual Change in Demand & Supply (MSF) 12.9% Avg: 10.1% Vacancy & Vacancy Average 8.1% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 50 0 (50) 8% 3% 6.5% Annual Rent Growth 6.7% 7.1% 5.3% 5.8% 4.3% 1.6% 2.4% 3.1% 3.9% 2.8% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.8% 9% 8% 7% 6% (2%) 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% 2.9% 0.1% (7%) 4.7% page 27

28 Light Industrial Vacancies To Remain Low Light Industrial National Index Fundamentals (20) (40) (60) (80) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% (2%) (4%) (6%) Annual Change in Demand & Supply (MSF) Vacancy & Vacancy Average 7.2% 3.2% Avg: 5.7% 4.0% Annual Rent Growth 6.2% 6.5% 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 2.1% 1.9% 2.5% 3.0% 3.6% 3.0% 2.0% 2.4% 1.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 2.8% 4.1% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% page 28

29 Logistics Absorption Accelerating In Many Markets Logistics Absorption Compared To Recent History 11 Avg. Absorption Past 12 Months (MSF) 10 9 Atlanta and Dallas FW Houston Lehigh Valley Columbus Phoenix Edison St. Louis Chicago and Inland Empire Seattle Reno East Bay Memphis Portland Indianapolis Northern NJ Miami Norfolk Harrisburg Orange County Detroit Los Angeles Avg. Annual Net Absorption, 14Q3-16Q2 (MSF) Logistics page 29

30 Light Ind Absorption Accelerating In Many Markets, Too Light Industrial Absorption Compared To Recent History 2.5 Avg. Absorption Past 12 Months (MSF) Chicago 2.0 Inland Empire Dallas FW Phoenix 1.5 Detroit Los Angeles 1.0 Edison Indianapolis Seattle Philadelphia Portland Atlanta 0.5 Houston Norfolk Miami Lehigh Valley St. Louis Columbus Reno Nashville Harrisburg East Bay Northern NJ Avg. Annual Net Absorption, 14Q3-16Q2 (MSF) Light Industrial page 30

31 Rents Justify Speculative Construction Logistics & Light Industrial Rent & Supply Trends Logistics Rent (Historical Trend: 1.4% 2016 EOY Gap To Trend: 9.5%) $7.00 $6.50 $ $ $5.00 Deliveries (MSF) Forecast Light Industrial Rent (Historical Trend: 1.7% 2016 EOY Gap To Trend: 7.3%) ---Forecast $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $9.50 $8.50 $7.50 $6.50 $5.50 $4.50 Rent ($/SF) page 31

32 Slight Construction Pullback In 2017 RBA Under Construction Nationwide 250 RBA Under Construction (MSF) Logistics Average* Logistics Light Industrial Average* Light Industrial *Average page 32

33 Supply Poses A Threat In Several Markets Logistics UC Committed Vs UC Available Metro Vacancy UC Committed UC Available UC Available As % Of Inventory Las Vegas 7.0% % Inland Empire 5.8% % Lehigh Valley 5.8% % Jacksonville 7.3% % Cincinnati 4.2% % Dallas - Fort Worth 8.1% % Washington DC 7.8% % Portland OR 4.7% % Northern NJ 7.6% % Baltimore 8.2% % Dallas 8.2% % San Antonio 7.0% % San Jose 5.0% % Seattle 4.1% % Saint Louis 10.7% % Northern New Jersey 5.1% % Chicago 9.1% % Salt Lake City 5.0% % Phoenix 12.4% % Washington - NoVA - M 8.1% % page 33

34 Capital Markets page 34

35 Pricing Still Peaking In Industrial And Multifamily CCRSI (Value Weighted) Index 275 Commercial Repeat Sales Index (12/31/2000 = 100) U.S. Office U.S. Industrial U.S. Retail U.S. Multifamily As of June 2017 page 35

36 But Growth Decelerating Change In CCRSI (Value Weighted) Index 18% Repeat Sales Index Growth 13% 8% 3% 9.1% 11.4% 7.3% 5.4% 5.0% 2.6% 5.0% (2%) -2.9% (7%) 16Q2 Y/Y 17Q2 Y/Y U.S. Retail U.S. Office U.S. Multifamily U.S. Industrial As of June 2017 page 36

37 Sales Volumes Down All Around Sales Volume By Property Type $200 $180 $160 U.S. Sales Volume (Billions) (12.7%) (3.3%) $140 $120 $100 $80 (19.3%) (8.0%) $60 $40 (14.0%) $20 $0 Multi-Family Office Retail Industrial Hospitality Last 4-Quarters Previous 4-Quarters page 37

38 CRE Pricing Off the Bond Market 10-Year Treasury and the Forward Yield Curve 10-Year Treasury Rate Q2 15Q2 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Portfolio Strategy As of Jun-17 page 38

39 Interest Rate Gains To Exceed Cap Rate Gains Comparison Of 10 Year Treasury To National Cap Rates 8% 7% Cap Rate/10 Year Treasury +12 Bps By Bps By % 5% 4% -2 BPs 3% 2% +189 Bps By % Year Treasury Light Industrial Cap Rate Logistics Cap Rates Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Portfolio Strategy As of August 2017 page 39

40 Capital Chasing Primary Markets Prices Up Industrial Pricing By Market Tier $100 $/SF $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Tier I Tier II Tier III *Three-Quarter Moving Average page 40

41 Most Markets Are Above Prior Peak Current Vs. Prior Peak Pricing $ Average Price Per SF San Francisco $250 $200 $150 New York Minus Edison Miami East Bay San Jose Los Angeles Orange County $100 $50 $0 Houston San Antonio Dallas Salt Lake City Lebanon Austin Chicago Atlanta Edison Northern NJ Inland Empire $0 $50 $100 $150 $ Average Price Per SF Tier I Tier II Tier III page 41

42 Capital Chasing Primary Markets Cap Rates Down Industrial Cap Rates By Tier 11% Equal-Weighted Cap Rate 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Tier I Tier II Tier III *Three-Quarter Moving Average page 42

43 Industrial Investment Opportunities Cap Rates vs. Rent Growth 9.5% Average Cap Rate Detroit Get what you pay for Buy 8.5% 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% Minneapolis Milwaukee Tampa Norfolk Jacksonville Boston Memphis Chicago Northern NJ Orlando Atlanta Nashville Indianapolis Dallas Las Vegas Washington, DC Palm Beach Phoenix Miami Inland Empire Lehigh Valley Reno Portland Seattle San Jose East Bay Los Angeles Orange County San Francisco Sell Pay for what you get 4.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Forecast Avg. Rent Growth Tier I Tier II Tier III page 43

44 Selected Top Industrial Deals 2Q 2017 Blackstone Industrial Portfolio 55 Building Portfolio, FL, GA, IL, PA, TX High Street Realty Company, LLC sold a million square foot 55-building Industrial portfolio to The Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc. for $ Million. ($67.33/SF ) 6% Cap Rate; 6.2% Pro-Forma Hampshire/AEW Industrial Portfolio 7 Building Portfolio, NJ The Hampshire Companies, LLC sold the million square foot 7-building Industrial portfolio to AEW Capital Management for $ Million ($120.55/SF) 5.25% Pro-Forma Cap Rate Safari Business Center 16 Building Portfolio, Ontario CA American Realty Advisors sold the million square foot 16-building Industrial portfolio to Rexford Industrial for $141.2 Million. ($124.06/SF). The buyer funded the acquisition with a 1031 Exchange. 4.11% Pro-Forma Cap Rate Angelo Gordon & Co Portfolio 2 Building Portfolio, MA American Finance Trust, Inc. sold the 987k SF square foot 2-building Industrial portfolio to Angelo, Gordon, & Co. for $ Million. ($86.09/SF). Both properties are fully leased to C&S Wholesale Grocers, Inc. on a NNN lease. 8.49% Cap Rate Duke Realty Corporation Portfolio 3 Building Portfolio, Hialeah Gardens, FL Bridge Development Partners sold the 677K square foot 3-building Industrial portfolio to Duke Realty Corporation for $79.97 Million (118.15/SF). Oklahoma City Industrial Portfolio 17 Building Portfolio, Oklahoma City, OK Greenfield Partners, LLC sold the million square foot 17-building Industrial/Flex portfolio of buildings to Sealy Strategic Equity Partners, LP for $ Million ($59.77/SF). 6.17% Cap Rate page 44

45 Rene Circ, Director Involved in more than $15 billion of transactions Led the international expansion initiative at a public REIT, including Asia, Europe, and North & Central America Sought-after authority on investing in the U.S. industrial market Specialties: Industrial, Market Selection, Investment Structuring Shaw Lupton, Managing Consultant slupton@costar.com Adjunct professor of real estate at Brandeis International Business School Co-founded Urban Land Institute Boston s Real Estate Technology Council Specialties: Investor Communications, Office, Industrial page 45

46 These Costar Portfolio Strategy and CoStar Risk Analytics Materials Contain Financial And Other Information From A Variety of public and proprietary sources. CoStar Group, Inc. and its affiliates (collectively, CoStar ) have assumed and relied upon, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of such third party information in preparing these materials. The modeling, calculations, forecasts, projections, evaluations, analyses, simulations, or other forward-looking information prepared by CoStar and presented herein (the Materials ) are based on various assumptions concerning future events and circumstances, which are speculative, uncertain and subject to change without notice. You should not rely upon the Materials as predictions of future results or events, as actual results and events may differ materially. All Materials speak only as of the date referenced with respect to such data and may have materially changed since such date. CoStar has no obligation to update any of the Materials included in this document. You should not construe any of the data provided herein as investment, tax, accounting or legal advice. CoStar does not represent, warrant or guaranty the accuracy or completeness of the information provided herein and shall not be held responsible for any errors in such information. Any user of the information provided herein accepts the information AS IS without any warranties whatsoever. To the maximum extent permitted by law, CoStar disclaims any and all liability in the event any information provided herein proves to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable CoStar Realty Information, Inc. No reproduction or distribution without permission. page 46