US Hotel Industry Overview. Chris Crenshaw

Transcription

1 US Hotel Industry Overview Chris Crenshaw

2 July 2014 (12 MMA): All Signs Point To A Sellers Market % Change Room Supply* 1.8 bn 0.8% Room Demand* 1.1 bn 3.4% Occupancy 63 % 2.6% A.D.R.* $ % RevPAR* $72 6.7% Room Revenue* $128 bn 7.5% July 12 MMA 2014, Total US Results * All Time High

3 Quarterly RevPAR % Change: ADR Drives Growth Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 * Total US, RevPAR % Change, by Quarter, Q Q2 2014

4 Demand Growth Accelerates. How Long Can That Last? 8 8.0% 4 3.4% 0-0.9% -4 Supply Demand - 4.7% % Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 7/2014

5 Hawaii has a unique supply story 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% US Oahu HI less Oahu 70% 60% 50% Total U.S., Oahu and HI less Oahu, Supply indexed to Jan 2001 through Jul 2014

6 Steady ADR Growth As Room Demand Growth Continues 6.8% 7.5% 5 4.0% 0-5 Demand % Change ADR % Change -4.5% Total U.S., ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 7/ %

7 2014 Shows Healthy Growth Rates 6.8% 7.5% 5 4.0% 0-5 OCC % Change ADR % Change -6.7% % Total U.S., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 7/2014

8 20 OCC Performance of Various International Resort Markets Oahu HI Less Oahu Mexico Resorts Thailand Bali -20 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jun 14 12MMA OCC% change compared to one year prior.

9 15 OCC Performance of Various Domestic High OCC Markets Oahu HI Less Oahu Total US New York San Francisco Miami -15 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jun 14 12MMA OCC% change compared to one year prior.

10 ADR Performance of Various International Jan 10 Jan 11 Resort Markets Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jun 14 Oahu HI Less Oahu Mexico Resorts Thailand Bali 12MMA ADR% change compared to one year prior. All % change in local currency

11 20 ADR Performance of Various Domestic High Occ Markets Oahu HI Less Oahu Total US New York San Francisco Miami Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jun 14 12MMA ADR% change compared to one year prior. All % change in local currency

12 30 RevPAR Performance of Various International Resort Markets Oahu HI Less Oahu Mexico Resorts Thailand Bali -40 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jun 14 12MMA RevPAR % change compared to one year prior. All % change in local currency

13 30 RevPAR Performance of Various Domestic High OCC Markets Oahu HI Less Oahu Total US New York San Francisco Miami -30 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jun 14 12MMA RevPAR % change compared to one year prior. All % change in local currency

14 Chain Scale Review

15 Scales: A Tale of 2 Supply Growth Scenarios Supply % Change Demand % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, July 2014 YTD

16 Scales: ADR Growth Strong Across The Board Occupancy % Change ADR % Change Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy *OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, July 2014 YTD

17 Top 25 US Markets: ADR

18 Wide Discrepancy In Absolute $ ADR Recovery Occupancy levels of top 4 markets Oahu 82.6 NYC 80.0 SF 76.3 MIA * Top 25 Markets, ADR $ Change From Prior Trough, as of July 2014

19 27.1% 24.9% 11 Markets Asking: What Recovery? 14 have made the recovery 20.6% 16.9% 11.4% 10.5% 9.0% 8.1% 6.5% 4.3% 4.2% 2.6% 2.0% 0.5% -1.1% -1.6% -1.6% -1.8% -1.9% -2.1% -2.1% -3.4% -7.6% -7.9% -10.4% Top 25 Markets, ADR % Change From Prior Peak, as of July 2014

20 Peak ADRs Still Off Peak By Over $12 for 3 Of Top Markets $42.93 $42.50 $24.65 $18.53 $16.16 $14.09 $13.52 $8.03 $7.02 $5.31 $4.34 $2.69 $2.14 $0.42 -$0.94 -$1.74 -$1.80 -$1.97 -$2.00 -$2.57 -$2.83 -$3.71 -$ $ $21.51 Top 25 Markets, ADR $ Change From Prior Peak, as of July 2014

21 Wide Discrepancy In Absolute $ ADR Recovery Occupancy levels of top 4 markets Oahu 82.6 NYC 80.0 SF 76.3 MIA * Top 25 Markets, ADR $ Change From Prior Trough, as of July 2014

22 Peak ADRs Still Off Peak By Over $12 for 3 Of Top Markets $42.93 $42.50 $24.65 $18.53 $16.16 $14.09 $13.52 $8.03 $7.02 $5.31 $4.34 $2.69 $2.14 $0.42 -$0.94 -$1.74 -$1.80 -$1.97 -$2.00 -$2.57 -$2.83 -$3.71 -$ $ $21.51 Top 25 Markets, ADR $ Change From Prior Peak, as of July 2014

23 Segmentation

24 Transient Occupancy Share Increases % 43% Group Transient 64% 36% Group Transient *Transient and Group Occupancy as Share of Total OCC, 2005 and 2013

25 ADR Segmentation by Class: Strong Transient Room Rate Growth 5.6 Transient % Change Group % Change Luxury Upper Upscale *Segmentation ADR % Change, by Class, July 2014 YTD

26 Group Demand Is (Finally!) Recovering 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% Demand % Change ADR % Change *2013 Easter Comp -2% *Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 7/2014

27 Pipeline

28 US Pipeline: Construction Accelerates Phase % Change In Construction % Final Planning % Planning % Under Contract % *Total US Pipeline, by Phase, 000s Rooms, July 2014 and 2013

29 Under Construction Rooms Mostly In Limited Service Segments % Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated *US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction, 000s Rooms, by Scale, July 2014

30 Construction In Top 26 Markets: 15 With 2%+ Of Supply Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing Las Vegas, NV 0 0.0% Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA % Tampa-St Petersburg, FL % Orlando, FL % Oahu Island, HI % San Francisco/San Mateo, CA % Atlanta, GA % Philadelphia, PA-NJ % St Louis, MO-IL % Detroit, MI % Phoenix, AZ 1, % Chicago, IL 2, % Minneapolis-St Paul, MN-WI % New Orleans, LA % Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 2, % San Diego, CA 1, % Dallas, TX 1, % Washington, DC-MD-VA 2, % Boston, MA 1, % Denver, CO 1, % Nashville, TN 1, % Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 2, % Seattle, WA 1, % Miami-Hialeah, FL 2, % Houston, TX 4, % New York, NY 13, % *US Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, July 2014

31 Forecasts

32 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2014F by Chain Scale 2014 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury -0.1% 4.6% 4.5% Upper Upscale 2.0% 4.4% 6.5% Upscale 2.0% 4.4% 6.5% Upper Midscale 2.6% 3.3% 6.0% Midscale 3.0% 3.5% 6.6% Economy 2.9% 3.9% 6.8% Independent 2.8% 4.6% 7.5% Total United States 2.6% 4.2% 6.9% *as of August 12 th, 2014

33 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2015F by Chain Scale 2015 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 0.2% 4.8% 5.0% Upper Upscale 0.5% 4.8% 5.3% Upscale 0.2% 4.7% 5.0% Upper Midscale 0.1% 3.5% 3.6% Midscale 1.0% 3.6% 4.6% Economy 1.0% 3.5% 4.5% Independent 0.9% 4.3% 5.2% Total United States 0.7% 4.4% 5.2% *as of August 12 th, 2014

34 Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) Outlook 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast Supply 1.0% 1.3% Demand 3.6% 2.1% Occupancy 2.6% 0.7% ADR 4.2% 4.4% *as of August 12 th, 2014 RevPAR 6.9% 5.2%

35 Oahu Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) Outlook 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast Supply -1.1% 0.9% Demand -0.4% 2.7% Occupancy 0.8% 1.8% ADR 4.9% 7.4% *as of August 12 th, 2014 RevPAR 5.7% 9.3%

36 Hawaii without Oahu Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) Outlook 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast Occupancy -0.3% 1.7% ADR 5.3% 5.9% RevPAR 5.0% 7.7% *as of August 20th, 2014 Source: STR Analytics Custom Forecast

37 2014 Year End RevPAR Forecast Top 25 US Markets, August 2014 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically) -5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15% 15%+ Chicago Anaheim Atlanta Nashville New Orleans Detroit Boston New York Houston Dallas Norfolk Los Angeles Denver Philadelphia Miami San Francisco Washington Minneapolis Seattle Oahu Tampa Orlando Phoenix San Diego St. Louis Hawaii less Oahu

38 2015 Year End RevPAR Forecast Top 25 US Markets, August 2014 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically) -5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15% New York Atlanta Anaheim Nashville New Orleans Norfolk Philadelphia Washington Boston Chicago Dallas Denver Detroit Houston Los Angeles Miami Minneapolis Oahu Orlando Phoenix San Diego San Francisco Seattle St. Louis Tampa Hawaii less Oahu

39 And Thank You! Questions?