TAMPA / WESTSHORE MULTI-FAMILY UPDATE
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1 TAMPA / WESTSHORE MULTI-FAMILY UPDATE Presented by: Phillip A. Smith Westshore Development Forum April 21, 2015
2 TOPICS Economic Trends Jobs, the Renter, and the Investor Rent Growth Regional Job Growth Tampa s Supply & Demand Challenges Facing our Rental Market Pipeline
3 NATIONAL TRENDS Jobs As of year-end 2014, US recovered 88% of jobs lost in the recession The Renter Millenials Stagnant wages Pressure to repay over $1 trillion in student loans Expanding mature renter The golf course retirement model losing its luster Current rent-by-choice lifestyle offers more than in the past The Investor Increased pension, endowment and life co. capital Family office/private wealth Increased asset sale prices and demand for new projects Sources: Wall Street Journal, PWC Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015, Marcus & Millichap National Apartment Report 2014
4 NATIONAL TRENDS Rent Growth 6.00% NATIONAL EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Source: Axiometrics, Inc.
5 REGIONAL JOB GROWTH 6.00% FLORIDA* 6.00% SOUTHEAST US YOY Growth 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% Naples Tallahassee Palm Bay Jacksonville Orlando Miami Tampa (5.3% Unemployment) YOY Growth 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% Charlotte Raleigh Greenville Columbia Austin Memphis Nashville Tampa Dallas Atlanta Houston 1.00% 1.00% 0.00% ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Jobs (1,000s) 0.00% ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Jobs (1,000s) *But, biggest recent job creation was in Leisure & Hospitality, and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (includes Retail). CONSUMER CONFIDENCE-DRIVEN GROWTH Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
6 THE SUPPLY SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING TAMPA APARTMENT DELIVERIES Annual Average Annual Average SUPPLY HIGHLIGHTS Total Inventory: 157,687 units Peak Inventory: 159,296 units (2004) Class A Occupancy: 95.4% '14 Production: 5,000 units (approx.) '15-'16 Production: 3,000-3,500 units (projected) Source: ARA Florida Multifamily Snapshot Q1 2015
7 THE SUPPLY SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING WESTSHORE S SUPPLY PIPELINE Spruce 262 units 2 Crescent Westshore 374 units 3 Grady Square 557 units Varela 350 units MetWest 254 units 6 Rocky Point 7 Redstone/Austin
8 THE DEMAND SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING TAMPA HOUSING ALTERNATIVES: $1,500/mo. $200,000 FHA 5.049% Median Price per SF: $106 Median $200k: 1,887 SF CASH REQUIRED AT CLOSING Down Payment: $7,000 Origination Fee: $1,005 Transfer Taxes: $1,100 Insurance: $1,476 Deposits & Misc. Fees: $5,269 TOTAL: $15,850 MONTHLY HOUSING EXPENSES Mortgage Pmt: $938 Taxes: $287 Insurance: $246 TOTAL: $1,471 Source: Zillow.com and Zillow Real Estate Research
9 THE DEMAND SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING TAMPA HOUSING ALTERNATIVES: $1,500/mo. METRO AREA TYPICAL RENT/SF UNIT $1,500/MO. Westshore $ SF Downtown Tampa $ SF Channelside $ SF SoHo/Bayshore $ SF TYPICAL AMENITIES - On-site Gym - On-site Spa - Pool - Demonstration Kitchens - Balconies/Terraces - Gaming Areas - Clubhouses - Pet Spas, Dog Parks
10 TAMPA S AFFORDABILITY CHALLENGE Atlanta Nashville Dallas Jacksonville Seattle Portland Sacramento Tampa = 32% of mo. income on rent Phoenix Chicago Boston Philadelphia Source: Zillow Real Estate Research
11 WESTSHORE S WALKABILITY CHALLENGE Westshore delivers on accessibility but should become more pedestrian-friendly
12 ACTIVE PROJECTS AT FRAMEWORK GROUP VARELA Lois Ave & Spruce St 350 Units 5-story w/ structured parking Completion SPRUCE 262 Units 5-story w/ structured parking Completion 2016 HARBOUR ISLAND Knights Run & Harbour Post 235 Units 21-story high rise Completion 2016
13 ON THE BOARD AT FRAMEWORK GROUP ORLANDO SARASOTA YBOR CITY
14 CONCLUSION Investment in the multi-family sector is still robust; Rent growth is steady; Supply appears to be in check in terms of total numbers, but mostly at the high-end; Regional job growth is steady, but mostly at the lowend; Need more new high-quality jobs; Wages are still stagnant, creating future affordability concerns; Need to maintain continued focus on Westshore s urban plan, transportation and walkability solutions to maintain competitive edge for attracting new businesses.
15 Framework Group, LLC
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