STATE OF THE MARKET. Market Leader Presentation JANUARY 17, 2017
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1 STATE OF THE MARKET Market Leader Presentation JANUARY 17, 2017
2 OVERVIEW 2 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
3 NASHVILLE IN NUMBERS 2015 BY SALES VOLUME $599.31M SALES VOLUME 69 NUMBER OF SALES 16% RETAIL 16% OFFICE 36% INDUSTRIAL BY LEASE VOLUME $377.08M LEASE VOLUME 192 NUMBER OF LEASES 8% RETAIL 56% OFFICE 31% INDUSTRIAL 3 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
4 NASHVILLE ECONOMY The Nashville market, based upon just about any measure, is one of the fastest growing markets in the country. Job growth has been strong, construction activity is incredibly high and interest in the market from an investment standpoint is rising. 4 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
5 NASHVILLE IS HIGHLY DIVERSIFIED Share of Total Employment for 2016 Construction 14% 5% 10% Manufacturing Wholesale Trade 13% 5% 5% 12% Retail Trade Trans & Ware- housing Information Financial Activities 5% Prof & Bus Services 20% 8% 3% Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Sources: Econometric Advisors, Moody s Analytics Government 5 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
6 NASHVILLE: STRONG DIVERSIFIED JOB GROWTH Total Employment, November 2016 Annual Employment Growth, History & Outlook Metro Area Employment (Thou.) Change (Yr/Yr) 6.0% Austin % Nashville % Raleigh % Denver 1, % Atlanta % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Charlotte 1, % Nashville Atlanta Austin Charlotte Denver Raleigh Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Econometric Advisors 6 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
7 JOBS AND REAL ESTATE: VERY CORRELATED Vacancy (%) 20.0 Office Vacancy Industrial Vacancy Apartment Vacancy Unemployment Source: Econometric Advisors and Macrobond, Research. 7 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
8 SOUTHEAST OFFICE EMPLOYMENT Y-o-Y % Change Atlanta Memphis Raleigh Orlando Nashville Charlotte Tampa Greenville Miami Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody s, Q IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
9 NASHVILLE OFFICE TOP 20 U.S. MARKETS FOR OFFICE-USING JOB GROWTH 9 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
10 TRUMP. WHAT IS NEXT? 10 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
11 ECONOMY THE TRUMP TAX PLAN (AS WE SEE IT TODAY) Reduce high corporate and individual taxes by curtailing deductions Corporate tax will go from 35% to 15% Individual tax will go from 39% to 33% Tax dividends at ½ income tax rate 11 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
12 ECONOMY HOW ARE WE GOING TO MAKE UP THE TAX SHORTFALL? 1031X GONE! Deduction interest expense/immediate expense of capital investments Pass through entities will go from 33% to 25% 12 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
13 LIGHTNING ROUND
14 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
15 INTEREST RATES?
16 BIGGEST RISK FOR NASHVILLE?
17 NASHVILLE OFFICE SPACE Going going gone!
18 NASHVILLE OFFICE MARKET VIEW Q Market Statistics Submarket Market Rentable Area (sq. ft.) Direct Vacancy Rate (%) Under Construction (sq. ft.) Avg. Gross Asking Lease Rate ($/sq. ft./yr) Airport North 3,929, Airport South 3,407, , Cool Springs/Brentwood 11,182, ,322, Downtown 8,234, ,896, Green Hills/21 st Ave/Music Row 2,428, , MetroCenter 1,756, North Nashville 816, West End/Belle Meade 3,841, , NASHVILLE 35,597, ,720, Source: Research 18 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
19 NASHVILLE OFFICE Nashville office supply to outpace demand, but vacancy to remain near historic lows. TOTAL MARKET VACANCY AND ASKING RATES 19 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
20 NASHVILLE OFFICE Asking rates are increasing as new construction is retrieving rates north of $40.00 per sq. ft. on a full service basis, a record in Nashville helping to push total market asking rates to new highs, which should continue through the end of TOTAL MARKET MARKET ABSORPTION AND DELIVERIES 20 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
21 NASHVILLE OFFICE SQ. FT. UNDER CONSTRUCTION AS % OF EXISTING NET RENTABLE AREA 21 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
22 SOUTHEAST OFFICE ASKING RENT Quoted $/PSF, Gross Atlanta Charlotte Nashville Greenville Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody s, Q IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
23 SOUTHEAST OFFICE VACANCY Vacancy (%) Atlanta Charlotte Nashville Greenville Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody s, Q IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
24 INDUSTRIAL MARKET
25 NASHVILLE INDUSTRIAL MARKET VIEW Q Market Statistics Submarket Source: Research Market Rentable Area (SF) Direct Vacancy Rate (%) Under Construction (SF) Avg. NNN Asking Lease Rate ($/SF/yr) Allied Drive/I-65 19,402, CBD/Polk Avenue 14,088, Elm Hill Pike/I-40 31,977, , Interchange City 57,816, ,900, MetroCenter/Coc krill Bend Northeast/I-65N Corridor Warehouse/ Distribution 13,242, ,285, , ,185, ,147, Manufacturing 66,494, Flex 11,067, NASHVILLE 174,812, ,147, IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
26 NASHVILLE INDUSTRIAL Market activity in recent years has pushed Nashville s industrial vacancy to a record low, prompting rising rental rates and significant new construction. ASKING RATES AND TOTAL MARKET AVAILABILITY 26 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
27 NASHVILLE INDUSTRIAL Industrial developers returning to Nashville, attracted by strong absorption and rent trends. TOTAL MARKET MARKET ABSORPTION AND DELIVERIES 27 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
28 SOUTHEAST INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Index (100) = Atlant a Memp his Raleig h Orland o Nashvil le Charlo tte Tampa Green ville Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Moody s, Q IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
29 RETAIL MARKET
30 NASHVILLE RETAIL Retailers are drawn to Nashville for several reasons, including Nashville s current construction boom as the majority of proposed and under construction office developments now include retail space. ASKING RATES AND TOTAL MARKET AVAILABILITY 30 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
31 NASHVILLE RETAIL Retailers are drawn to Nashville for several reasons, including Nashville s current construction boom as the majority of proposed and under construction office developments now include retail space. TOTAL MARKET ABSORPTION AND DELIVERIES 31 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
32 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
33 NASHVILLE MULTIFAMILY Pipeline Summary by Submarket Submarket Source: Axiometrics 2014 Deliveries 2015 Deliveries 2016 Deliveries 2017 Projected Deliveries 2018 Projected Deliveries Airport/Briley Parkway Belle Meade/West Nashville Brentwood/Williamson County , Dickson County Donelson/Hermitage/ Wilson County Downtown/West End/Green Hills ,297 1,179 2,864 4,722 1,279 Hickory Hollow Murfreesboro Pike/Antioch Murfreeboro/Smyrna 826 1, NE/Madison/Rivergat e/hendersonville Robertson County Wilson County/Other IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
34 NASHVILLE MULTIFAMILY AT A GLANCE 6,628 UNITS DELIVERED IN ,136 TOTAL UNITS $121,672 AVG. SALE PRICE PER UNIT 8,730 UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION $1,942 AVG. URBAN RENT $1,382 AVG. SUBURBAN RENT 34 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
35 NASHVILLE MULTIFAMILY Despite the delivery of new product, vacancy is not expected to get much higher than 5%. This will help balance the market. While new product delivered to the market will continue to move rents, they may place a cap on the potential for further rent growth of existing multifamily stock. TOTAL MARKET VACANCY AND ASKING RATES 35 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
36 NASHVILLE MULTIFAMILY Multifamily expansion to soften market fundamentals in Nashville, although still strong. TOTAL MARKET ABSORPTION AND DELIVERIES 36 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
37 NASHVILLE MULTIFAMILY URBAN VS. SUBURBAN DELIVERY SCHEDULE 37 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
38 We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next 10. Don t let yourself be lulled into inaction. Bill Gates 38 IFMA STATE OF THE MARKET
39 Q&A THANK YOU! JANUARY 17, 2017
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