The Commonwealth of Virginia s Economy: Recession and Recovery
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1 11/18/215 House Appropriations Committee Retreat The Virginia and Northern Virginia Economies: Current Trends and Future Prospects Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Senior Advisor and Director of Special Projects Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University November 17, 215 The Commonwealth of Virginia s Economy: Recession and Recovery GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
2 11/18/215 % 4 2 U.S. U.S. GDP and Virginia GSP Virginia Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis State Comparison GSP Percent Change Texas Tennessee Ohio Georgia South Carolina Florida North Carolina West Virginia Alabama yland D.C. Virginia 2% 3% 3% 7% % % 5% 5% 5% 9% 1% 22% % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
3 11/18/215 State Comparison Job Change (s) Texas Florida Georgia North Carolina Ohio Tennessee South Carolina yland Alabama Virginia D.C. West Virginia Virginia Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery To 215 Ranked by Size in 214 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Wholesale Trade Information Mining & Logging (s) Total -293 Total 225 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Total Private Sector Job Losses ended in ch GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 11/18/215 The GSP* Effects of Private Sector Job Change in the Commonwealth of Virginia, ch 28-tember 215 (in 214$s) Job Average Total Change GSP Value GSP Value -293,4 $147,45 - $43,2,21, +224,5 $112,875 25,34,37, - 8,9 - $17,925,834, Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross State Product (s of 214 $s) Average Wage in the Commonwealth of Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 11/18/215 Commonwealth of Virginia Annual Job Change, Annual Data Annual Month over Year (s) Commonwealth of Virginia: Professional & Business Services Jobs (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Total: 8.7 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 11/18/ Commonwealth of Virginia: Federal Government Jobs (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Total: 19.3 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Commonwealth of Virginia: Job Change by Sector (s) Total = 32,9 (3.) (2.) (1.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 11/18/ Unemployment Rates By Select State, DC 5.1 U.S. 5.1 MD VA 2.. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted) The Washington Economy: Recession, Sequester, Repositioning and Expansion GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 11/18/215 Share of Washington Area Economy By Sub-State Share % 45% Northern Virginia 4% 35% Suburban MD 3% 25% D.C. 2% 15% 1% 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 11/18/215 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, FY TOTAL = $1,14.9 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Total: GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 11/18/ Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Total: 33.7 Summary of Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, Federal Procurement Outlays declined $11.2 billion or 13.% between FY 21 and FY 214. Federal employment has declined since peaking in July 21, losing 23,7 jobs or.1%. Federal payroll declined by $2.5 billion or.4% between FY 21 and FY 214 and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
11 11/18/215 (s) Largest Job kets Job Change: Washington + 18,9 WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 28-Feb 21 Feb (s) Total -181 Total GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11
12 11/18/215 The GRP* Effects of Private Sector Job Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Aug 28-tember 215 (in 214 $s) Job Change Total GRP Value - 181,3 - $29,44,4, ,8 + $29,74,12, ,5 + $,98, Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product 1 $1,2 per job contribution to GRP 2 $18,9 per job contribution to GRP (s of 214 $s) 74 Average Wage in the Washington Metro Area, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12
13 11/18/215 (s) Largest Job kets Job Change: Washington +53, % 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% 15 Largest Job kets Job Change: Washington +1.7% GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13
14 11/18/ Annual Job Change Washington MSA, Annual Data (s) Annual Month over Year Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Washington MSA (s) Total = 53,3 3 3 (2.) (1.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 14
15 11/18/215 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, Annual Month over Year Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Northern Virginia (s) Total 27,4 4 4 (2.) (1.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 15
16 11/18/ Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 5.1 U.S. 4. SMD 4.3 MSA NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area: GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
17 11/18/215 % 4 2 U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP (Annual % Change) U.S. -2 Washington -4 Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: tember 215 % Economic Outlook (GRP), Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: tember 215 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 17
18 11/18/215 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) * D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change = 3, Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (August 215); *estimated based on first half-year performance. NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Other Federal 1.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Total Federal 39.8% Procurement 19.1% Non-Local Business 17.5 % Local Serving Activities 38.3% Other Federal 7.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 7.1% Total Federal 28.8% Procurement 14.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 18
19 11/18/215 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 19
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