THREE DISPARATE CHICAGO-AREA HOUSING MARKETS

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "THREE DISPARATE CHICAGO-AREA HOUSING MARKETS"

Sharlene Berry
5 years ago
Views:

1 Manufactured Housing Community Council ULI 2008 FALL MEETING MIAMI, FLA OCTOBER 27-28, 2008 Understanding Demographics/Market Analysis: THREE DISPARATE CHICAGO-AREA HOUSING MARKETS

2 Three Disparate Chicago-area Housing Markets THE NATIONAL ECONOMY

3 STATES IN RECESSION Most of the U.S. is either in recession or near recession in September Hardest hit states include Michigan, California/Nevada/Arizona, Florida/ Georgia and several Midwest and Southeastern states. The economies of energy producing states and some agricultural states have been able to hold up the longest. Alaska, Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland had been able to avoid the recession, at least, as late as August. United States, as a whole, probably has been in recession since Q RECESSION STATUS STATES Source: Moody s Economy.com

4 rly Change Annualiz zed Quarte 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 40% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 10% -2.0% Q GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT UNITED STATES Sources: Moody s Economy.com RECI, Inc.

5% QUARTERLY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE UNITED STATES

5 d Quarterly Change Annualize 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% -0.5% -1.5% Jobs to begin increasing in Q % QUARTERLY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE UNITED STATES Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Moody s Economy.com

6 MSA Composite Miami LA Chicago Home Price Index (January 2000 =100.0) ly 2008 Janua Ap Ju ry 2000 ril 2000 ly 2000 October 2000 Janua Ap ry 2001 ril 2001 July 2001 October 2001 Janua Ap Ju ry 2002 ril 2002 ly 2002 October 2002 Janua Ap Ju ry 2003 ril 2003 ly 2003 October 2003 Janua Ap Ju ry 2004 ril 2004 ly 2004 October 2004 Janua Ap Ju ry 2005 ril 2005 ly 2005 October 2005 Janua Ap Ju ry 2006 ril 2006 ly 2006 October 2006 Janua Ap ry 2007 ril 2007 July 2007 October 2007 Janua Ap ry 2008 ril 2008 Ju Atlanta, GA Boston, MA Charlotte, NC Chicago, IL Cleveland, OH Dallas, TX Denver, CO Detroit, MI Las Vegas, NV Los Angeles, CA Miami, FL Minneapolis, MN New York, NY Phoenix, AZ Portland, OR San Diego, CA San Francisco, CA Seattle, WA Tampa, FL Washington DC Composite-20 MSAs CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX FOR TOP 20 MSAS Sources: S&P/Case-Shiller & RECI, Inc.

7 Total % Cha ange (June and July 2008) 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% 4.1% -7.2% -8.6% -10.7% 7% % -1.8% -5.4% -24.4% 4% -29.7% -32.9% -34.2% -16.0% -10.4% -34.4% -3.0% -27.9% -30.9% -1.9% -26.5% -19.5% -21.8% CASE SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX FOR 20 MSAS - TOTAL % CHANGE Sources: S&P/Case-Shiller & RECI, Inc.

9 Three Disparate Chicago-area Housing Markets THE METRO CHICAGO ECONOMY

10 Wholesale Trade 250,000 jobs 1.28 Professional and Business Services 744,000 jobs Almost 1 in 4 jobs Transportation and Utilities Financial Activities 203,000 jobs 328,000 jobs Manufacturing: Nondurable Goods 195,000 jobs 1.21 Other Services (except Public Administration) 1.13 Manufacturing: Durable Goods Education and Health Services Retail Trade Information Leisure and Hospitality Construction 285,000 jobs DEFINITION LQ = Metro % / U.S. % Government METRO CHICAGO ECONOMY - INDUSTRY LOCATION QUOTIENTS Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Moody s Economy.com

11 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% -0.5% -1.5% -2.5% -3.5% Annualized Quarterly Change -4.5% 2008Q2 1988Q1 1988Q4 1989Q3 1990Q2 1991Q1 1991Q4 1992Q3 1993Q2 1994Q1 1994Q4 1995Q3 1996Q2 1997Q1 1997Q4 1998Q3 1999Q2 2000Q1 2000Q4 2001Q3 2002Q2 2003Q1 2003Q4 2004Q3 2005Q2 2006Q1 2006Q4 2007Q3 United States Chicago-Naperville-Joliet MSA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH - UNITED STATES AND CHICAGO MSA Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Moody s Economy.com

12 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% % Change 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Chicago 20 MSA Composite CASE SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX MNTH OVER MNTH CHANGE CHICAGO MSA Sources: S&P/Case-Shiller & RECI, Inc.

13 25,000 20,000 15,000 13,223 Nu umber of Jo obs 10,000 5, ,000-10, ,000-13,330-12, Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 QUARTERLY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE METRO CHICAGO Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Moody s Economy.com

14 3.00% 4 th Quarter % Annua alized Quarterly % Change 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% United States Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI MSA QUARTERLY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE METRO CHICAGO Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Moody s Economy.com

15 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% Annua alized Quarterly % Change 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% United States Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI MSA QUARTERLY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE METRO CHICAGO Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Moody s Economy.com

16 Prof & Bus Services Financial Activities Total MSA Payroll Employment Manufacturing Professional and Business Services Construction Financial Activities QUARTERLY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE METRO CHICAGO Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Moody s Economy.com

17 Three Disparate Chicago-area Housing Markets DEMOGRAPHICS AND EMPLOYMENT OF THREE MARKETS

18 THREE MARKETS BLUE ISLAND, IL, DES PLAINES, IL AND GLENVIEW, IL

19 120, , ,000 80, ,120 73,641 60,000 40,000 20, ,473 5,867 7,215 1-Mile Radius 3-Mile Radius 2008 POPULATION ESTIMATES Blue Island, IL Des Plaines, IL Glenview, IL Sources: Claritas, Inc. & RECI, Inc.

20 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -0.6% -0.7% -0.5% -1.5% -2.0% -1.6% 1-Mile Radius 3-Mile Radius Blue Island, IL Des Plaines, IL Glenview, IL ANNUAL AVERAGE POPULATION CHANGE (CAAC%) Sources: Claritas, Inc. & RECI, Inc.

21 Num mber of House eholds Less than $15,000 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $249,999 $250,000+ Blue Island, IL Des Plaines, IL Glenview, IL HOUSEHOLD DISTRIBUTION BY INCOME RANGE WITHIN 1-MILE RADIUS Sources: Claritas, Inc. & RECI, Inc.

22 Blue Island Region - I-57, I-94 South and I-80 corridors. Des Plaines Region I-90 (NW Tollway), I-294 and I 290 corridors. Glenview Region I-94 North corridor. Approximately 20 minute drive time. EMPLOYMENT REGIONS

23 600, , , , , , , , ,000 0 Blue Island, IL Des Plaines, IL Glenview, IL EMPLOYMENT REGIONS NUMBER OF JOBS IN 2007 Sources: Illinois Department of Employment Security & RECI, Inc.

24 Blue Island, IL Glenview, IL Des Plaines, IL Blue Island, IL Des Plaines, IL Glenview, IL Chicago Metro Division JOB GROWTH INDEX

25 TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING (48-49) PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC 5% & TECH. SVCS. (54) OTHER SERVICES 3% (except PUBLIC ADMIN.) (81) 3% ADMIN. & SUP. & WASTE MGMT. & REMED. SVCS. (56) 5% FINANCE & INSURANCE (52) 4% EDUCATIONAL SERVICES (61) 1% INFORMATION (51) 2% REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING (53) 1% ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION (71) 1% MNGMT. OF COMPANIES & ENTERPRISES (55) 0% UNCLASSIFIED (99) 0% RETAIL TRADE (44-45) 22% MANUFACTURING (31-33) 12% HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE (62) 17% WHOLESALE TRADE (42) 6% CONSTRUCTION (23) 6% ACCOMMODATIONS & FOOD SERVICES (72) 12% EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY - BLUE ISLAND REGION Sources: Illinois Department of Employment Security & RECI, Inc.

26 CONSTRUCTION (23) 6% OTHER SERVICES (except PUBLIC ADMIN.) (81) 3% TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING (48-49) 5% FINANCE & INSURANCE (52) 5% REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING (53) 2% MNGMT. OF COMPANIES & ENTERPRISES (55) 3% INFORMATION (51) 3% EDUCATIONAL SERVICES (61) 1% ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION (71) 0% UNCLASSIFIED (99) 0% MANUFACTURING (31-33) 16% RETAIL TRADE (44-45) 11% WHOLESALE TRADE (42) 10% ACCOMMODATIONS & FOOD SERVICES (72) 8% PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC & TECH. SVCS. (54) 9% HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE (62) 9% EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY - DES PLAINES REGION ADMIN. & SUP. & WASTE MGMT. & REMED. SVCS. (56) 10% Sources: Illinois Department of Employment Security & RECI, Inc.

27 MNGMT. OF COMPANIES & ENTERPRISES (55) 5% OTHER SERVICES (except PUBLIC ADMIN.) (81) 3% CONSTRUCTION (23) 5% FINANCE & INSURANCE (52) 5% REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING (53) 2% TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING (48-49) 2% INFORMATION (51) 2% ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION (71) AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, 1% FISHING, & HUNTING (11) 0% EDUCATIONAL UNCLASSIFIED (99) SERVICES (61) 0% 2% HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE (62) 15% RETAIL TRADE (44-45) 13% MANUFACTURING (31-33) 12% WHOLESALE TRADE (42) 8% ACCOMMODATIONS & FOOD SERVICES (72) 8% EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY - GLENVIEW REGION PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC & TECH. SVCS. (54) 10% Sources: Illinois Department of Employment Security & RECI, Inc.

28 UNCLASSIFIED (99) PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC & TECH. SVCS. (54) EDUCATIONAL SERVICES (61) ADMIN. & SUP. & WASTE MGMT. & REMED. SVCS. (56) FINANCE & INSURANCE (52) INFORMATION (51) ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION (71) REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING (53) OTHER SERVICES (except PUBLIC ADMIN.) (81) WHOLESALE TRADE (42) MANUFACTURING (31-33) TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING (48-49) 1.07 CONSTRUCTION (23) 1.23 ACCOMMODATIONS & FOOD SERVICES (72) HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE (62) RETAIL TRADE (44-45) 45) LOCATION QUOTIENTS - BLUE ISLAND REGION Sources: Illinois Department of Employment Security, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Economy.com, and & RECI, Inc.

29 UNCLASSIFIED (99) ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION (71) EDUCATIONAL SERVICES (61) HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE (62) FINANCE & INSURANCE (52) OTHER SERVICES (except PUBLIC ADMIN.) (81) RETAIL TRADE (44-45) INFORMATION (51) REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING (53) ACCOMMODATIONS & FOOD SERVICES (72) MNGMT. OF COMPANIES & ENTERPRISES (55) PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC & TECH. SVCS. (54) TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING (48-49) CONSTRUCTION (23) ADMIN. & SUP. & WASTE MGMT. & REMED. SVCS. (56) 1.26 MANUFACTURING (31-33) 1.39 WHOLESALE TRADE (42) LOCATION QUOTIENTS - DES PLAINES REGION Sources: Illinois Department of Employment Security, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Economy.com, and & RECI, Inc.

30 AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHING, & HUNTING (11) TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING (48-49) UNCLASSIFIED (99) FINANCE & INSURANCE (52) ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION (71) OTHER SERVICES (except PUBLIC ADMIN.) (81) REAL ESTATE & RENTAL & LEASING (53) INFORMATION (51) ACCOMMODATIONS & FOOD SERVICES (72) ADMIN. & SUP. & WASTE MGMT. & REMED. SVCS. (56) CONSTRUCTION (23) PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC & TECH. SVCS. (54) HEALTH CARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE (62) RETAIL TRADE (44-45) 45) WHOLESALE TRADE (42) EDUCATIONAL SERVICES (61) MANUFACTURING (31-33) MNGMT. OF COMPANIES & ENTERPRISES (55) LOCATION QUOTIENT GLENVIEW REGION Sources: Illinois Department of Employment Security, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Economy.com, and & RECI, Inc.

31 Three Disparate Chicago-area Housing Markets AFFORDABILITY: RENTAL, SITE BUILT & MANUFACTURED HOME

32 $70,000 $60,000 $59,382 $53,940 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $40,965 $27,637 $26,964 $37,871 $33,463 $29,725 $20,531 $21, $10,000 $0 Teachers Health Care Workers Fire Fighters/Police Office Workers Retail Workers Entry Level Workers Experienced Workers WORK FORCE JOBS IN COOK COUNTY, IL ENTRY LEVEL & EXPERIENCED Note: Entry Level Workers = Workers associated with mean wage of bottom one-third of wages by occupation. Experienced Workers = Workers associated with mean wage of top two-thirds of wages by occupation. Sources: Illinois Department of Employment Security and RECI, Inc.

33 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60, $40,000 $20,000 $0 $158,629 $170,607 $180,026 $163,883 18% 16% 14% 12% $122,883 $131,494 $137,853 10% 8% 6% FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% Average Purchase Price (LEFT SCALE) % Change (RIGHT SCALE) HISTORICAL HOME PRICE FOR ZIP CODE AREA (BLUE ISLAND, IL) Sources: Melissa Data & RECI, Inc.

34 $320,000 $280,000 $240,000 $300,250 $327,047 24% $319,263 22% $298,424 20% $247,521 18% 16% $225,273 $233,547 14% 12% $200,000 $160,000 $120, $80,000 $40,000 $0 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Average Purchase Price (LEFT SCALE) % Change (RIGHT SCALE) HISTORICAL HOME PRICE FOR ZIP CODE AREA (DES PLAINES, IL) Sources: Melissa Data & RECI, Inc.

35 $600,000 $550,000 $500, $450,000 $400,000 $350, $300,000 $250,000 $200, $150,000 $100,000 $50, $0 $571,941 $514,089 $513,023 $488,449 $457,566 $443,489 $422,496 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY % 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% Average Purchase Price (LEFT SCALE) % Change (RIGHT SCALE) HISTORICAL HOME PRICE FOR ZIP CODE AREA (GLENVIEW, IL) Sources: Melissa Data & RECI, Inc.

36 Blue Island, IL (ZIP CODE AREA 60406) Des Plaines, IL (ZIP CODE AREA 60018) Glenview, IL (ZIP CODE AREA 60025) ENTRY LEVEL EXPERIENCED ENTRY LEVEL EXPERIENCED ENTRY LEVEL EXPERIENCED MONTHLY COST FOR RENTAL APARTMENT Unit Square Feet NA NA Monthly Rent $750 $750 $860 $860 $990 $990 Housing Payment as a % of Income 32.8% 14.5% 37.6% 16.7% 43.3% 19.2% MONTHLY COST FOR SITE BUILT HOME Average Home Price in Zip Code Area $163,883 $163,883 $298,424 $298,424 $571,941 $571,942 Down 20% $32,777 $32,777 $59,685 $59,685 $114,388 $114,388 Mortgage Amount $131,106 $131,106 $238,740 $238,740 $457,553 $457,554 Monthly Payment (30yr rate:5.94%) $781 $781 $1,422 $1,422 $2,726 $2,726 of price, divided by 12 $38 $38 $70 $70 $133 $133 Real Estate $15 per $1,000 of price, divided by 12 $205 $205 $373 $373 $715 $715 Total Monthly Payment (PITI) $1,024 $1,024 $1,865 $1,865 $3,574 $3,574 Housing Payment as a % of Income 44.7% 19.9% 81.5% 36.1% 156.2% 69.3% MONTHLY COST FOR MANUFACTURED HOME Square Footage ,500 1,500 Price $43,500 $43,500 $49,900 $49,900 $66,900 $66,900 Down 20% $8,700 $8,700 $9, $9, $13, $13, Loan Amount $34,800 $34,800 $39,920 $39,920 $53,520 $53,520 Monthly Loan Payment (30 $293 $293 $336 $336 $450 $450 Pad Rent $480 $480 $550 $550 $900 $900 Insurance $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 $40 Total Monthly Payment (PITI) $813 $813 $886 $886 $1,390 $1,390 Housing Payment as a % of Income 35.5% 15.8% 38.7% 17.2% 60.7% 26.9% ASSUMPTIONS/MONTHLY PAYMENT CALCULATIONS

37 $4,000 $3,500 $3,574 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $750 $1,865 $990 $1,024 $860 $813 $886 $1,390 $0 Two Bedroom Apartment Existing Site Built Home Manufactured Home Blue Island, IL DesPlaines, IL Glenview, IL MONTHLY HOUSING COST DIFFERENTIAL THREE MARKETS Sources: Melissa Data and RECI, Inc.

38 180.0% 160.0% 140.0% 120.0% 0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 32.8% 81.5% 156.2% 43.3% 44.7% 37.6% 35.5% 38.7% Two Bedroom Apartment Existing Site Built Home 60.7% Manufactured Home Community Blue Island, IL DesPlaines, IL Glenview, IL % OF WORKFORCE HOUSEHOLD INCOME ENTRY LEVEL WORKERS Sources: Illinois Department of Employment Security, Melissa Data and RECI, Inc.

39 80.0% 70.0% 0% 69.3% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 36.1% 30.0% 20.0% 14.5% 19.2% 19.9% 16.7% 15.8% 17.2% 26.9% 10.0% 0.0% Two Bedroom Apartment Existing Site Built Home Manufactured Home Community Blue Island, IL Des Plaines, IL Glenview, IL % OF WORKFORCE HOUSEHOLD INCOME EXPERIENCED WORKERS Sources: Illinois Department of Employment Security and RECI, Inc.

40 The site built home price differential among three markets varies considerably, making it beneficial for Experienced Worker households to consider the manufactured housing option in both Des Plaines and Glenview. Though the Des Plaines and Glenview communities have higher pad rent costs than Blue Island, there exists a quantifiable benefit to considering manufactured housing in communities such as these. Existing site built home prices in Blue Island are affordable to the Experienced workers, based upon the monthly housing cost/income ratio. Entry level workers in Blue Island would most likely have to rent an apartment. Entry level workers could not even afford to live in Glenview or and some might not be able to afford to live in Des Plaines. Therefore, these workers would likely have to commute long distances to their jobs. SUMMARY

We have a proven track record of providing valuation, market feasibility, due diligence and related counseling and analysis

41 THANK YOU Real Estate Counselors International is an independently owned commercial real estate valuation and consulting company serving regional, national and international clients. We have a proven track record of providing valuation, market feasibility, due diligence and related counseling and analysis to financial institutions, developers, institutional investors and other public and private concerns. Thomas Amato, CRE Director of Due Diligence tamato@reci.biz Phone: X101

Europe June Carol Tomé Executive Vice President, Corporate Services & Chief Financial Officer. Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations

Europe June Carol Tomé Executive Vice President, Corporate Services & Chief Financial Officer. Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations Europe June 2017 Carol Tomé Executive Vice President, Corporate Services & Chief Financial Officer Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations Forward Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measurements