Grow or Stall? An Economic & Real Estate Forecast for 2016
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1 Grow or Stall? An Economic & Real Estate Forecast for 2016 A Presentation to BOMA Washington Athletic Club, Seattle, Washington February 22, 2016 Presented by: Matthew Gardner Chief Economist, Windermere Services Company
2 Mixed Signals From the U.S. Economy Steady as She Goes, in a Holding Pattern, or Dropping Back?
3 U.S. Payroll Jobs Well Above An All Time High 145, , , , , ,000 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jul-11 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Total Employment (SA) In 000's Source: BLS Data through Jan. 2016
4 126, , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Jan-13 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 In 000's Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 But Full Time Employment Only Modestly Higher Source: BLS Data through Jan. 2016
5 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 In 000's Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Part Time Employment is Stable (That s Good!) Source: BLS Data through Jan. 2016
6 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Jan-13 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 In 000's Jan-12 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 & Persons Working Part Time for Economic Reasons is Dropping. (That s Even Better!) Source: BLS Data through Jan. 2016
7 Labor Force Participation Rate Nudges Higher 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% Source: BLS Data through Jan. 2016
8 But the Real Unemployment Rate isn t Great! 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan-14 Jan-00 Aug-00 Mar-01 Oct-01 May-02 Dec-02 Jul-03 Feb-04 Sep-04 Apr-05 Nov-05 Jun-06 Jan-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Oct-08 May-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Aug-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 Unemployment Rate (U6) Unemployment Rate (U3) Source: BLS Data through Jan. 2016
9 U.S. Monthly U.S. Payroll Change 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Source: BLS w/ Windermere Economics Forecasts 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Q Q Q Q Montly Jobs Added Unemployment Rate
10 Employment Cycles Show a Mediocre Recovery 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% November-73 January-80 July-81 July-90 March-01 December-07 Source: BLS analyzed by Windermere Economics
11 Guess Who s Still Working? 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Apr-12 May-13 Jun-14 Jul-15 Jan-83 Feb-84 Mar-85 Apr-86 May-87 Jun-88 Jul-89 Aug-90 Sep-91 Oct-92 Nov-93 Dec-94 Jan-96 Feb-97 Mar-98 Apr-99 May-00 Jun-01 Jul-02 Aug-03 Sep-04 Oct-05 Nov-06 Dec-07 Jan-09 Feb-10 Mar Source: BLS Data through Jan. 2016
12 Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Mortgages HELOC's Auto Loans Credit Cards Student Loans Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Thru Q4-2015
13 Student Debt Likely to Double by 2025 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $ In $ Trillions Source: Federal Reserve w/windermere Economics Forecasts
14 We Are Feeling Pretty Good! Jan-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Oct-08 May-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 Jan-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Oct-08 Dec-09 Jul-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 May-09 Mar-15 Oct-15 Consumer Confidence Consumer Sentiment Index
15 The Gardner Misery Index Unemployment + Inflation Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Source: BLS Misery Index = Unemployment Rate + Annual Change in CPI
16 U.S. Economic Forecast Inflation Will Rise Modestly in 2016; 2.5M New Jobs in 2015 and 2.1M in 2016; 2.1% GDP Growth in 2016; Worries over Global Growth & Oil Will Continue to Cause Heartburn; Some Uncertainty Will Still Prevail. (Well it will be an Election Year!); but Wages, Spending & Sentiment Do NOT Point to a Recession in 2016.
17 The Seattle Economy Better than Most!
18 2016 Employment Forecast Source: Windermere Economics
19 Employment Growth Seattle Metro Area 60,000 40,000 20, (f) 2016 (f) (20,000) (40,000) (60,000) (80,000) Longview (100,000) Source: WA ESD w/ Windermere Economics Forecasts
20 Comparative Employment (y/y) San Jose Portland Tacoma Salt Lake City San Francisco/Oakland Seattle Phoenix San Diego Sacremento Boise Los Angeles, Long Beach, Glendale Las Vegas 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Source: BLS Dec to Dec. 2015
21 WA Metro Employment Growth Dec Dec Bremerton Kennewick Seattle Bellingham Olympia WA State Longview Tacoma Mount Vernon Wenatchee Spokane Yakima Longview 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Source: WA ESD
22 Seattle Post-Recession Employment Change Sector Pre-Recession Peak Employment Trough Employment Current Employment % Change from Prior Peak Retail Trade 150, , , % Leisure & Hospitality 138, , , % Information 87,000 84,100 96, % Professional & Business Services Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Source: WA ESD & Windermere Economics Current Data 12/ , , , % 278, , , % Government 204, , , % Wholesale Trade 72,800 65,500 71, % Financial Activities 94,300 79,000 86, % Manufacturing 197, , , % Construction 101,100 Longview 62,300 84, % N/A N/A 205,600 N/A Educational & Health Services
23 2015 Sectoral Growth Seattle MSA Trade Professional & Business Services Leisure & Hospitality Local Government Information Financial Activities Education & Health Services TWU 1/ Other Services Construction State Government Other Manufacturing Federal Government Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing 3,000 2,600 2,400 2,200 1,600 1, ,800 5,700 5,100 5,100 8, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 1/ Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Dec Dec. 2015
24 Who Does What? State Government 4% Local Government 8% Construction 5% Other Manufacturing 5% Federal Government 1% Other Services 4% Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing 6% Leisure & Hospitality 10% Trade 15% Education & Health Services 13% TWU 1/ 3% Professional & Business Services 15% Source: WA State ESD Data as of August / Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Financial Activities 5% Information 6%
25 Real Estate Rental & Leasing Agents 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-10 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Source: WA EASD WA State Seattle ESD MSA Data as of August 2015
26 Unemployment Rates 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Source: WA ESD U.S. WA State Seattle MSA
27 Seasonally Adjusted Local Unemployment Rate 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 King County Snohomish County Source: WA ESD w/ Windermere Economics Seasonal Adjustments
28 Population vs. Employment (MSA) 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% % -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% Population Employment Source: Windermere Economics, WA OFM & WA OFD
29 Migration Patterns Seattle MSA 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, , Births Deaths Net Growth Residual Source: Windermere Economics, WA OFM & WA OFD
30 Migration Patterns 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, King Co. Snohomish Co. Source: Windermere Economics, WA OFM & WA OFD
31 Economic Forecast Diversification Continues to be Key to Long-Term Growth (Amazon HAS to Slow Down); Forecasting 40,000 New Jobs Will Be Created in the Metro Area in 2016; Commercial Development Activity will Continue to Drive Additional Demand for Housing; and We Will Still Be Cheaper than the Bay Area!
32 Regional Office Market
33 Absorption of Office Space Seattle/Tacoma MSA 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000, (f) -2,000,000-3,000,000 Source: CBRE w/ Windermere Economics Forecast
34 Sub-Market Absorption of Space 3,000,000 2,500, ,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , ,000 Source: CBRE Downtown Seattle Eastside Seattle Close In Southend Northend Pierce County
35 Vacancy Rates Seattle/Tacoma MSA 22% 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 10-Year Trend 10-Year Trend Source: CBRE Total Vacancy Rate Direct Vacancy Rate
36 Class A Rental Rates Seattle/Tacoma MSA $34 $33 $32 $31 $30 $29 $28 $27 $26 $ Direct Total Source: CBRE
37 New Office Deliveries Seattle/Tacoma MSA 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Source: CBRE Data Through Q (Inc. Renovations)
38 Availability in New Buildings Seattle/Tacoma MSA 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Source: CBRE
39 New Office Investor Pipeline Seattle/Tacoma MSA Puget Sound Office, Investor Owned Planned Under Construction Under Renovation Combo Under Construction/Renovation Office NRA 20,850,678 SF 6,401,323 SF 85,740 SF 6,487,063 SF SF Preleased % Planned 211,000 SF 1.0% Under Construction 2,203,920 SF 34% Under Renovation 21,557 SF 25% Combo Under Construction/Renovation 2,225,477 SF 34% Combined Planned/Under Construction/Renovation 27,337,741 SF SF Preleased 2,436,477 SF % Preleased 8.9% Source: CBRE Data Through Q (Inc. Renovations)
40 New Office Owner & Biotech Pipeline Puget Sound Office & Biotech, User & Investor Owned Planned Under Construction Under Renovation Combo Under Construction/Renovation Office NRA 25,364,478 SF 7,623,323 SF 85,740 SF 7,709,063 SF SF Preleased % Planned 3,984,800 SF 16% Under Construction 3,325,420 SF 44% Under Renovation 21,557 SF 25% Combo Under Construction/Renovation 3,346,977 SF 43% Combined Planned/Under Construction/Renovation 33,073,541 SF SF Preleased 7,331,777 SF % Preleased 22.2% Source: CBRE Data Through Q (Inc. Renovations)
41 The Influence of Amazon.com 1,000, , , , ,000 0 (200,000) 2010 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Amazon.com Growth in Investor-Owned Buildings Net Absorption from all Other Downtown Seattle Tenants Source: CBRE
42 Expectations Slowing Job Growth May Taper Development of Speculative Space; EB-5??; Don t Give Up on the Burbs! (Or Bellevue!); and Look for More Renovation Activity & Continued Evolution in Space Design.
43 The Emergence of Building Rehabilitation. 30-Year Lifespan; Mechanical, then?; Can t Change SqFt, but Can Change Volume; Cubicles/Private Offices. Dodo s!!! (Unless You are a Law Firm!)
44 Regional Industrial Market
45 Industrial Market Tri-County Area Absorption 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, ,000,000-4,000,000 Economic & Real Estate Forecast -6,000,000 January 8, 2015
46 Sub-Market Absorption of Industrial Space 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Economic -500,000 & Real Estate Forecast January 8, 2015 Seattle Close-In Kent Valley Tacoma/Fife Eastside Snohomish Co
47 Vacancy (Availability) Rates 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Economic & Real Estate Forecast January 8, 2015 Seattle Close-In Kent Valley Tacoma/Fife Eastside Snohomish Co.
48 Total Available Space Seattle/Tacoma MSA 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Economic & Real Estate Forecast January 8, 2015 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 2015
49 Expectations Poster Child During the Recovery, but Why? Activity in the Flex Space Environment Expected to Grow; New Development Will Focus on Stand-Alone Buildings Shaped to Accommodate Multiple Users.
50 Regional Apartment Market
51 Is it Better to Rent or Buy? Assumptions Buying: Avg. Home Price (2B/2B condo): $385,000 Avg. Price Growth: 4% Renting: Avg. Rent (2B/2B Unit): $2,479 Avg. Rental Rate Growth: 4% Investment Yield: 6% $(700,000) Net after-tax equity $100,000 $- $(100,000) $(200,000) $(300,000) $(400,000) $(500,000) $(600,000) Additional equity from renting an apartment versus buying a condo/house (cumulative) Source: Dupre & Scott & Windermere Economics Years
52 Supply/Demand Balance Tri-County Market 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4, (f)2016 (f) 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6,000 Net New Absorption Rental Rate Growth Forecast Source: Dupre & Scott w/ Windermere Economics Forecast -6.0%
53 Market Size Tri-County Market 270, , , , , , , (f) Source: Dupre & Scott w/ Windermere Economics Forecast 2016 (f)
54 Absorption & Rent 7,000 $1,800 6,000 $1,650 $1,577 $1, Month Absorption 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 $1,325 $1,067 $1,063 $1,123 $924 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 Average Rent 1,000 $400 0 $200-1,000 Seattle North King South King Eastside Southeast Source: Dupre & Scott King Snohomish Co. Pierce Co. $0
55 Sub-Market Construction Activity 25,000 Under Construction Proposed 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Seattle North King South King Eastside Southeast Source: Dupre & Scott King Snohomish Co. Pierce Co.
56 2016 Apartment Market Forecast Can Belltown Really Absorb over 4K Units? (& Another 6,200 Proposed!!); Long-Term Leases. Interesting Option; Institutional Demand Will Not Slow Anytime Soon but Rental Rate Growth WILL Slow & I See Sub- Market Bubbles Forming.
57 Seattle Area Self Storage Market Rental Market Growth a Marked Positive; Climate Controlled Rents Up 2.3% (4% ) While Non-Climate Controlled Rents Jumped 4% (4.9% ); Supply Increases Slowed Aiding Occupancy Rates; 2016 Set to be a Another Good Year, with No Clouds Looming on the Horizon.
58 Seattle Area Housing Market Time for Some Tapering!
59 The Market Cycle 2006 Euphoria Exhilaration Enthusiasm Optimism Unease Denial 2008 Pessimism Panic Capitulation Despair 2009 Enthusiasm Optimism Relief Hope 2012 Skepticism 2015
60 Case Shiller Index Index Change 1-Year 2-Year From Peak From last Trough Denver 10.9% 18.7% 24.2% 44.9% Dallas 9.3% 17.6% 23.2% 38.8% Portland 10.9% 17.7% 1.3% 46.4% Boston 5.1% 9.6% 1.2% 26.6% San Francisco 10.9% 21.2% -0.3% 84.9% Charlotte 4.7% 7.6% -0.9% 24.3% Seattle 8.8% 15.4% -3.7% 43.6% Atlanta 6.1% 10.9% -7.6% 52.7% Cleveland 2.2% 3.0% -11.7% 15.7% Los Angeles 6.2% 11.3% -12.8% 50.1% Source: Case Shiller Data thru Nov Index Change 1-Year 2-Year From Peak From last Trough Minneapolis 4.7% 6.1% -13.8% 39.5% San Diego 5.7% 11.1% -13.8% 49.3% Washington 2.1% 3.8% -15.8% 27.4% New York 3.9% 5.2% -15.8% 15.4% Detroit 6.1% 9.0% -18.7% 60.2% Chicago 2.7% 4.3% -22.1% 27.8% Tampa 5.5% 12.5% -26.9% 40.5% Miami 7.2% 16.5% -27.0% 49.7% Phoenix 5.5% 7.7% -31.4% 55.6% Las Vegas 5.4% 13.2% -38.3% 61.3%
61 Seattle Appears to Be Balanced Pricewise January-90 October-90 July-91 April-92 January-93 October-93 July-94 April-95 January-96 October-96 July-97 April-98 January-99 October-99 July-00 April-01 January-02 October-02 July-03 April-04 January-05 October-05 July-06 April-07 October-08 July-09 April-10 January-11 January-08 October-11 July-12 April-13 January-14 October-14 July-15
62 2016 Forecast Continued Home Price Growth (± 5.5%); Mortgage Rates Will Rise, But at a Modest Pace; Construction of Homes Will Improve; The Millennials Will Start to Enter the Market (Just Don t Expect a Tsunami of them!; and Supply Will Grow (slightly) in 2016.
63 Contact Twitter: SeattleEcon LinkedIn: Matthew Gardner Facebook: MJDGardner & Windermere Economics 2016 Windermere Services Company and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, WINDERMERE ). All rights reserved. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT WINDERMERE S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by WINDERMERE from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. Under no circumstances shall WINDERMERE have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of WINDERMERE or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if WINDERMERE is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell, hold or develop any asset. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY WINDERMERE IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. Each opinion must be weighed solely as one factor in any investment decision made by or on behalf of any user of the information contained herein, and each such user must accordingly make its own study and evaluation of each security that it may consider purchasing, holding, developing or selling any asset.
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