U.S. Economic Outlook STEVE COCHRANE, MANAGING DIRECTOR
|
|
- Evan Lynch
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 U.S. Economic Outlook STEVE COCHRANE, MANAGING DIRECTOR
2 Recessions Are Few and Far Between Business cycle status, January 2017 Source: Moody s Analytics Recession At Risk Recovery Expansion
3 Wage Growth Is Normalizing % 4.0 Job opening rate, 1-yr lag (L) 3.5 Wage growth (R) Correlation coefficient = Sources: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Moody s Analytics
4 Housing Vacancy Is Low and Falling Vacancy rate, homes for sale and rent, 4-qtr MA, % Current Housing Supply 1,250,000 Single-family 800,000 Multifamily 375,000 Manufactured Housing 75,000 Trend Housing Demand 1,700,000 Household Formations 1,200,000 Obsolescence 325,000 Second Homes 175, Sources: Census Bureau, Moody s Analytics 4
5 A Few Housing Markets Heating Up FHFA all-transactions index, % above equilibrium trend, 2016Q4 Sources: FHFA, BEA, Census Bureau, Moody s Analytics U.S. = 0.4% < -10% to 0% 0 to 9.99% >10% 5
6 The Economy Is Bubble Free Domestic private sector debt-to-gdp ratio Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Moody s Analytics Trend 6
7 Will Corporate Tax Reform Add Up? Change in corporate tax revenue over 10 yrs, $ bil ,000-1,500 Net Impact on Revenue Border Adjustment Base Broadening Deemed Repatriation Territorial System Capex/Interest 20% Corporate Rate -2,000-2,500 Sources: Tax Policy Center, Moody s Analytics 7
8 Monetary Policy Normalization Could Be Messy % 1.00 ECB Deposit Rate 0.75 Federal Funds Rate Sources: ECB, Federal Reserve, Moody s Analytics 8
9 Economy Needs More Immigration, Not Less Contribution to working age population growth, ppt, 5 yr avg Net International Migration Natural Growth Total Sources: Census Bureau, Moody s Analytics 9
10 Posing Greatest Risk to Northeast Net international migration, per 1,000 Residents, > 4.82 Sources: Census Bureau, Moody s Analytics 10
11 Back Tracking on Globalization Will be Painful Participation in global value chains, % India Brazil Australia Mexico U.S. Spain Canada Taiwan Japan Thailand Italy Russia Saudi Arabia China Switzerland Korea France Germany Malaysia Sweden HK Netherlands UK Belgium Singapore Foreign value added used in country's exports (upstream) plus value added supplied to other countries' exports (downstream), divided by total exports Sources: UNCTAD-Eora GVC Database, Barclays Research, Moody s Analytics 11
12 Balance of Trade Favors Ag Commodity Areas Net merchandise exports, % share of GSP 2015 U.S. = -3.9 > 0.2 Near avg < -5.1 Sources: BEA, Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division, Moody s Analytics 12
13 Productivity Slump Could Continue Annualized growth, %, 4-yr MA Productivity (L) 3.0 Info processing eq., 4-yr lag (R) Correlation coefficient = Sources: BLS, Moody s Analytics 13
14 United States 121 North Walnut Street Suite 500 West Chester PA Australia Level 10 1 O'Connell Street Sydney, NSW, 2000 Australia United Kingdom One Canada Square Canary Wharf London E14 5FA Prague Washingtonova Prague 1 Czech Republic
15 2017, Moody s Analytics, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODY S ). All rights reserved. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. Under no circumstances shall MOODY S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. Each rating or other opinion must be weighed solely as one factor in any investment decision made by or on behalf of any user of the information contained herein, and each such user must accordingly make its own study and evaluation of each security and of each issuer and guarantor of, and each provider of credit support for, each security that it may consider purchasing, holding, or selling. 15
U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook DAN WHITE, ECONOMIST
U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook DAN WHITE, ECONOMIST FTA Annual Conference June 10, 2013 Businesses Have Never Been as Profitable After-tax corporate profit margin, % 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
More informationKicking Into a Higher Gear MARISA DI NATALE, SENIOR DIRECTOR
Kicking Into a Higher Gear MARISA DI NATALE, SENIOR DIRECTOR Getting Better in the Job Market Rate, % 4.5 4.0 3.5 Openings Quits Hiring Layoffs 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Sources: BLS,
More informationThe Regional Outlook MARISA DI NATALE, DIRECTOR
The Regional Outlook MARISA DI NATALE, DIRECTOR Expansion Is Spreading Total employment, % of previous business cycle peak, 2013Q2 U.S.=98% Sources: BLS, Moody s Analytics New peaks: 25% by count 35% by
More informationLooking Through the Noise ADAM KAMINS, SENIOR ECONOMIST
Looking Through the Noise ADAM KAMINS, SENIOR ECONOMIST Full Employment Is in View U-6 underemployed per open job position 12 9 6 3 0 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Sources: BLS, Moody s Analytics 2 More Jobs,
More informationThe Economic Outlook DAN WHITE, SENIOR ECONOMIST
The Economic Outlook DAN WHITE, SENIOR ECONOMIST NCSL Fiscal Analysts Seminar, October 2016 Full Employment Is Fast Approaching 160 159 158 Unemployment rate, % (R) Labor force, mil (L) 7.0 6.5 6.0 157
More informationMay We Live in Interesting Times
May We Live in Interesting Times RYAN SWEET, DIRECTOR OF REAL-TIME ECONOMICS March 2017 Trend Job Growth Holding Steady Payroll employment, change, ths 350 300 1 mo 6-mo avg 250 200 150 100 50 0 15 16
More informationGood (But Risky) Times
Good (But Risky) Times Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody s Analytics January, 2018 The Job Market Is Tight U6 underemployed per open job position 12 9 6 3 0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Sources: BLS, Moody
More informationThe U.S. Macro Outlook: Reasons for Optimism and Concern MARISA DI NATALE, DIRECTOR
The U.S. Macro Outlook: Reasons for Optimism and Concern MARISA DI NATALE, DIRECTOR Fiscal Headwinds Are Set to Fade Contribution to real GDP growth, % 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 Private economy Fiscal
More informationThe Economic Impact of Sandy MARK ZANDI, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MOODY S ANALYTICS
The Economic Impact of Sandy MARK ZANDI, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MOODY S ANALYTICS WEBINAR NOVEMBER 1, 2012 Region Impacted by Hurricane Sandy Nominal Employment, Value of Households, housing stock, Average household
More informationBrexit Deal or No Deal. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Barbara Teixeira Araujo, U.K. and Europe Economist October 2018
Brexit Deal or No Deal Mark Zandi, Chief Economist Barbara Teixeira Araujo, U.K. and Europe Economist October 2018 1 Fallout From Brexit Vote Europe Weathers Brexit Storm Well Business Cycle Status, Oct
More informationTransitioning From the Great Recession to Recovery to Expansion
Transitioning From the Great Recession to Recovery to Expansion AUGUSTINE FAUCHER, DIRECTOR OF MACROECONOMICS FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM The Great Recession Is Over Recessions since World War II Peak Trough
More informationCCAR 2019: A Very Tough Test
CCAR 2019: A Very Tough Test Mark Zandi, Chief Economist February 2019 2019 CCAR Timeline Target day Publication date Database 0 5-Feb FRB releases its CCAR supervisory scenarios 2 7-Feb U.S. macro forecast
More informationFrom Virtuous to Vicious Cycle
From Virtuous to Vicious Cycle Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody s Analytics January 2019 U.S. Economy is in a Virtuous Cycle Mil 16 14 12 Unemployed Job openings 10 8 6 4 2 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
More informationThe Development of Microinsurance and the Role of Credit Rating Agencies
ADB FSD CoP The Development of Microinsurance and the Role of Credit Rating Agencies Andrea E. Keenan Vice President Research & Ratings Criteria A.M. Best - Oldwick, NJ Disclaimer AM Best Company (AMB)
More informationStruggling to Escape the Fallout of the Great Recession MARISA Di NATALE, MANAGING DIRECTOR
Struggling to Escape the Fallout of the Great Recession MARISA Di NATALE, MANAGING DIRECTOR FROM MOODY S ECONOMY.COM Broad-Based Slowing Across the Nation Total employment excluding federal government,
More informationPerformance Forecasting and Stress Testing: Selecting the Right Tool for the Job MICHAEL FADIL, CITIZENS BANK CRISTIAN DERITIS, MOODY S ANALYTICS
Performance Forecasting and Stress Testing: Selecting the Right Tool for the Job MICHAEL FADIL, CITIZENS BANK CRISTIAN DERITIS, MOODY S ANALYTICS The Great Duel: Banker vs. Economist 2 The Questions 1.
More informationFeeling Good (For Now)
Feeling Good (For Now) Dan White October 2018 The Job Market Is Tight Underemployed per open job position 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Sources: BLS, Moody s Analytics October 2018 2 and
More informationU.S. Consumer Credit Outlook
U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook Scott Hoyt, PhD, Senior Director, Research Deniz Tudor, PhD, Director, Credit Analytics February 27, 2019 Speakers Scott Hoyt Senior Director Scott Hoyt is senior director
More informationStruggling to Hit Escape Velocity MARISA DI NATALE, DIRECTOR
Struggling to Hit Escape Velocity MARISA DI NATALE, DIRECTOR Households and Businesses Deleverage Change in household and nonfinancial corporate debt, $ bil Household liabilities have fallen by $900 billion
More informationAging and the Productivity Puzzle. Adam Ozimek, Senior Economist Dante DeAntonio, Economist Mark Zandi, Chief Economist
Aging and the Productivity Puzzle Adam Ozimek, Senior Economist Dante DeAntonio, Economist Mark Zandi, Chief Economist AEA Conference January 2018 Introduction» The workforce has aged significantly over
More informationRegional Economic Outlook
Regional Economic Outlook Dan White, Director September, 2017 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook, August, 2017 1 Remarkably Steady Growth 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 Real GDP growth, %, 4-qtr MA (L) Avg monthly change
More informationMiddle East Outlook Amidst Uncertainty. Anna Zabrodzka, Assistant Director - Economist Dr. Guillaume A. Khayat, Economist
Middle East Outlook Amidst Uncertainty Anna Zabrodzka, Assistant Director - Economist Dr. Guillaume A. Khayat, Economist Presenters Anna Zabrodzka Anna is responsible for macroeconomic, market and credit
More informationMiddle East Outlook A Rosy Future for Oil Exporters
Middle East Outlook A Rosy Future for Oil Exporters Dr. Martin Janicko, Assistant Director - Economist Dr. Guillaume A. Khayat, Economist Gega Todua, Economist Presenters Dr. Martin Janicko Dr. Janicko
More informationMoody s Analytics. Jacek Nowak, Associate Director. Nikola Bakić, Credit Product Specialist. Essential Insight Serving Global Financial Markets
Moody s Analytics Essential Insight Serving Global Financial Markets Jacek Nowak, Associate Director Nikola Bakić, Credit Product Specialist November 2012 Agenda 1. Who are we? 2. Why should you care?
More informationOptimizing performance and profitability in the Basel III environment. Nicolas Kunghehian, Business Development Director
Optimizing performance and profitability in the Basel III environment Nicolas Kunghehian, Business Development Director June 2011 Higher costs for a better risk control performance Risk Operation al reports
More informationPotential Bumps Ahead for U.S. Financial Markets RYAN SWEET, DIRECTOR OF REAL-TIME ECONOMICS SOHINI CHOWDHURY, DIRECTOR
Potential Bumps Ahead for U.S. Financial Markets RYAN SWEET, DIRECTOR OF REAL-TIME ECONOMICS SOHINI CHOWDHURY, DIRECTOR May 2017 Financial Drag Can Be Significant Real GDP response to one std deviation
More informationElectric Vehicle Residual Value Outlook
Electric Vehicle Residual Value Outlook Michael Vogan, Lead Auto Economist Dec. 5th, 2017 Speaker Michael Vogan Michael Vogan is a Lead Auto Economist at Moody s Analytics. Before joining Moody s Analytics,
More informationStress Testing Challenges:
Stress Testing Challenges: Forecasting Consistent Credit & Market Risk Losses JOSE CANALS-CERDA, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia JUAN M. LICARI, Senior Director, Moody s Analytics OCTOBER 2015 Agenda
More informationProperty / Casualty State of the Market. Greg Williams Vice President
IASA Fall Meeting Property / Casualty State of the Market Greg Williams Vice President Agenda State of the Market Market Forces Financial Indicators & Underwriting Details Outlooks In the News Cyber Security
More informationImprove liquidity management under a regulation framework. Nicolas Kunghehian
Improve liquidity management under a regulation framework Nicolas Kunghehian 24 th May 2011 From Basel II to Basel III» Too much leverage» Excessive credit growth» Insufficient liquidity buffers» Weaknesses
More informationRating Action: Moody's upgrades Swedbank and Swedbank Mortgage to A1; P-1 ratings affirmed Global Credit Research - 04 Jun 2013
Rating Action: Moody's upgrades Swedbank and Swedbank Mortgage to A1; P-1 ratings affirmed Global Credit Research - 04 Jun 2013 London, 04 June 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded Swedbank
More informationA.M. Best Market Briefing at the EAIC 2018
A.M. Best Market Briefing at the EAIC 2018 Agenda 2 Perspectives on the Global Reinsurance Market Stefan Holzberger Chief Rating Officer 7 May 2018 AM Best Company, Inc. (AMB) and/or its licensors and
More informationU.S. Municipal Market The View From the Markets Presentation to the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, New York and Philadelphia
U.S. Municipal Market The View From the Markets Presentation to the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, New York and Philadelphia GAIL SUSSMAN, MANAGING DIRECTOR, US PUBLIC FINANCE June 24, 2011 Unprecedented
More informationImportance of compulsory insurance for market growth The Middle East experience
Insurance in Azerbaijan: New perspectives Importance of compulsory insurance for market growth The Middle East experience Vasilis Katsipis General Manager, Market Development A.M. Best MENA, South & Central
More informationThe Next Challenge in Portfolio Management: Accounting for Liquidity in Pricing and Risk. Amnon Levy, Managing Director, Head of Portfolio Research
The Next Challenge in Portfolio Management: Accounting for Liquidity in Pricing and Risk Amnon Levy, Managing Director, Head of Portfolio Research November 2010 2 Bank Funding Costs Continue to be a Maor
More informationThe Impact of Hurricane Harvey on the U.S. Economy. Presentation Title, Date 1
The Impact of Hurricane Harvey on the U.S. Economy Presentation Title, Date 1 Harvey Will Be Costly Economic Aid Impacted Economic Loss Economic Aid as a Share of Disaster Region Date Destruction Lost
More informationRetail Risk Modeling Framework in the Current Environment. BRAD BRADLEY, SunTrust JUAN M. LICARI, Moody s Analytics
Retail Risk Modeling Framework in the Current Environment BRAD BRADLEY, SunTrust JUAN M. LICARI, Moody s Analytics OCTOBER 2015 Retail Risk Modeling Framework in the Current Environment Brad Bradley, SunTrust
More informationCanadian Life Insurance Industry
A.M. Best Company s 11 th Annual Insurance Market Briefing Canada Canadian Life Insurance Industry Edward Kohlberg, CPA, FLMI, CLU Associate Director Anthony McSwieney Senior Financial Analyst Toronto,
More informationMOODY'S AFFIRMS Aa3 RATING ON THE CITY OF LIVONIA'S (MI) OUTSTANDING GENERAL OBLIGATION DEBT
MOODY'S AFFIRMS Aa3 RATING ON THE CITY OF LIVONIA'S (MI) OUTSTANDING GENERAL OBLIGATION DEBT Aa3 RATING APPLIES TO $56 MILLION IN OUTSTANDING GO DEBT Livonia (City of) MI Municipality Michigan NEW YORK,
More informationAsia Refining Outlook. Vikas Halan / Moody s Investors Service
Asia Refining - 2016 Outlook Vikas Halan / Moody s Investors Service Refining & Marketing Asia Healthy Margins, but Exports from China Remain a Key Risk VIKAS HALAN, VICE PRESIDENT SENIOR CREDIT OFFICER,
More informationAnnouncement: Moody's places GDF SUEZ's A1 ratings on review for downgrade
Announcement: Moody's places GDF SUEZ's A1 ratings on review for downgrade Global Credit Research - 03 Apr 2012 Approximately EUR19 billion rated debt securities affected London, 03 April 2012 -- Moody's
More informationNew in 2013: Greater emphasis on capital flows Refinements to EBA methodology Individual country assessments
As in 212: Stock-take: multilaterally consistent assessment of external sector policies of the largest economies Feeds into Article IVs Draws on External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology/other Identifies
More informationCreditForecast.com U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook. Scott Hoyt, PhD, Senior Director, Research Deniz Tudor, PhD, Director, Credit Analytics
CreditForecast.com U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook Scott Hoyt, PhD, Senior Director, Research Deniz Tudor, PhD, Director, Credit Analytics Speakers Scott Hoyt Senior Director Scott Hoyt is senior director
More informationRating Action: Moody's affirms the Baa2 financial strength rating on VIVAT NV's operating subsidiaries. Outlook remains stable
Rating Action: Moody's affirms the Baa2 financial strength rating on VIVAT NV's operating subsidiaries. Outlook remains stable Global Credit Research - 06 Nov 2017 London, 06 November 2017 -- Moody's Investors
More informationPolicy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings in the European Union
Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings in the European Union Issued by: MIS Compliance Department Applicable to: All MIS Employee and relevant Moody s Shared Services Employees
More informationRating Action: Moody's downgrades ENGIE to A2; stable outlook Global Credit Research - 27 Apr 2016
Rating Action: Moody's downgrades ENGIE to A2; stable outlook Global Credit Research - 27 Apr 2016 London, 27 April 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has today downgraded to A2 from A1 the issuer
More informationGlobal Credit Research - 19 Apr 2018
Rating Action: Moody's changes Bromford Housing Group's outlook to negative, affirms A1 issuer rating, assigns (P)A1 debt rating to planned bond issuance of up to GBP300m Global Credit Research - 19 Apr
More informationRating Action: Moody's upgrades Kommunalkredit Austria AG's public-sector covered bonds Global Credit Research - 25 Jul 2017
Rating Action: Moody's upgrades Kommunalkredit Austria AG's public-sector covered bonds Global Credit Research - 25 Jul 2017 London, 25 July 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded to Baa1 from
More informationCanadian Life Insurance Industry
Canadian Life Insurance Industry Edward Kohlberg, CPA, FLMI, CLU Associate Director Anthony McSwieney Senior Financial Analyst A.M. Best Annual Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 5, 2018 Canadian
More informationMoody s Approach to Assessing Credit Risk for Oil & Gas Companies. Gretchen French Vice President and Senior Credit Officer Moody s Investors Service
Moody s Approach to Assessing Credit Risk for Oil & Gas Companies Gretchen French Vice President and Senior Credit Officer Moody s Investors Service Agenda 1. Overview of Moody s Ratings 2. Rating Methodologies
More informationRating Action: Moody's assigns Aa3/Prime-1 issuer ratings to the Departement de L'Eure; stable outlook Global Credit Research - 07 Apr 2016
Rating Action: Moody's assigns Aa3/Prime-1 issuer ratings to the Departement de L'Eure; stable outlook Global Credit Research - 07 Apr 2016 London, 07 April 2016 -- Moody's Public Sector Europe (MPSE)
More informationPolicy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings
Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings Issued by: MIS Compliance Department Applicable to: All MIS Employees and relevant Moody's Shared Services Employees supporting the MIS ratings
More informationMain Street Report Q4 2017
Q4 2017 1 About the report The Experian/Moody s Analytics Main Street Report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape, as well as providing commentary around
More informationState Outlook: Debt Affordability. NCSL Conference Gail Sussman, Managing Director
State Outlook: Debt Affordability NCSL Conference Gail Sussman, Managing Director NOVEMBER 18, 2016 State debt is stable and manageable Debt is flat and debt ratios are declining for US states 600 500
More informationMarket Correlations: CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index
Market Correlations: Spot Price Index December 15, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www.
More informationRating Action: Moody's assigns provisional (P)Aaa to Belfius Bank's public sector covered bonds
Rating Action: Moody's assigns provisional (P)Aaa to Belfius Bank's public sector covered bonds Global Credit Research - 11 Sep 2014 EUR 1 billion of bonds affected London, 11 September 2014 -- Moody's
More informationRating Action: Moody's affirms Intrum Justitia's Ba2 corporate family rating; outlook changed to stable Global Credit Research - 19 Apr 2018
Rating Action: Moody's affirms Intrum Justitia's Ba2 corporate family rating; outlook changed to stable Global Credit Research - 19 Apr 2018 London, 19 April 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's)
More informationRating Action: Moody's downgrades ArcelorMittal's ratings to Ba2; negative outlook Global Credit Research - 12 Nov 2015
Rating Action: Moody's downgrades ArcelorMittal's ratings to Ba2; negative outlook Global Credit Research - 12 Nov 2015 London, 12 November 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the world's
More informationRating Action: Moody's assigns (P)Baa1 rating to Brussels Airport Holding SA/NV's senior secured debt; stable outlook
Rating Action: Moody's assigns (P)Baa1 rating to Brussels Airport Holding SA/NV's senior secured debt; stable outlook Global Credit Research - 13 Jun 2013 First time rating London, 13 June 2013 -- Moody's
More informationRating Action: Moody's downgrades Banca Carige S.p.A. and places ratings under review for downgrade 07 Aug 2018
Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Banca Carige S.p.A. and places ratings under review for downgrade 07 Aug 2018 London, 07 August 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") downgraded the baseline credit
More informationUS Economic Indicators: Import Prices, PPI, & CPI
US Economic Indicators: Import Prices, PPI, & CPI December 1, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 51-97-73 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson --1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box Table Of
More informationFTSE Global RIC Capped Indexes
Methodology overview FTSE Global RIC Capped Indexes Helping investors meet US regulatory requirements Building blocks for investable global portfolios The FTSE Global RIC Capped Indexes are market capitalization
More informationRating Action: Moody's changes Colonial's outlook to negative from stable following tender offer for Axiare Global Credit Research - 14 Nov 2017
Rating Action: Moody's changes Colonial's outlook to negative from stable following tender offer for Axiare Global Credit Research - 14 Nov 2017 London, 14 November 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's")
More informationRating Action: Moody's affirms BIL's A2 senior unsecured rating and changes outlook to stable 07 May 2018
Rating Action: Moody's affirms BIL's A2 senior unsecured rating and changes outlook to stable 07 May 2018 London, 07 May 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") today affirmed the long-term issuer,
More informationMarket Correlations: Expected Inflation in TIPS
Market Correlations: in TIPS April, 8 Dr. Edward Yardeni 56-97-768 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 7-497-56 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
More informationRating Action: Moody's changes outlook on ArcelorMittal's Ba1 CFR to positive from stable; affirms ratings Global Credit Research - 07 Dec 2017
Rating Action: Moody's changes outlook on ArcelorMittal's Ba1 CFR to positive from stable; affirms ratings Global Credit Research - 07 Dec 2017 London, 07 December 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has
More informationMarket Briefing: S&P 500 Forward Earnings & the Economy
Market Briefing: S&P Forward Earnings & the Economy January, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-56 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www.
More informationPolicy for Analyst Rotation
Policy for Analyst Rotation Issued by: MIS Compliance Department Applicable to: All Key Analysts Scope: All Covered EU Ratings Effective Date: May 1, 2017 I. SCOPE MIS has adopted this Policy to implement
More informationRating Action: Moody's changes outlook to positive on Orkuveita Reykjavikur's Ba2 rating Global Credit Research - 15 Jun 2017
Rating Action: Moody's changes outlook to positive on Orkuveita Reykjavikur's Ba2 rating Global Credit Research - 15 Jun 2017 London, 15 June 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today changed
More informationIntegrating The Macroeconomy Into Consumer Loan Loss Forecasting. Juan M. Licari, Ph.D. Economics & Credit Analytics EMEA Moody s Analytics
Integrating The Macroeconomy Into Consumer Loan Loss Forecasting Juan M. Licari, Ph.D. Economics & Credit Analytics EMEA Moody s Analytics 2 Integrating The Macroeconomy Into Consumer Loan Loss Forecasting
More informationGlobal Economic Indictors: CRB Raw Industrials & Global Economy
Global Economic Indictors: & Global Economy December 14, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
More informationToll Road Funding Models more than one way from A to B
Toll Road Funding Models more than one way from A to B ANDREW BLEASE, ASSOCIATE MANAGING DIRECTOR Dublin, September 2015 Economic Prospects Economic Growth Moody s August 2015 Central Scenario Annual GDP
More informationRating Action: Moody's upgrades MS Amlin's IFS ratings to A1; stable outlook Global Credit Research - 08 Aug 2017
Rating Action: Moody's upgrades MS Amlin's IFS ratings to A1; stable outlook Global Credit Research - 08 Aug 2017 London, 08 August 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded to A1 from A2, the
More informationGlobal Property & REIT Quantitative Analysis
Global Property & REIT Quantitative Analysis 4th Quarter 2012 2n S&P Dow Jones Indices Quantitative Analysis Global Property & REIT Page 1 Contents S&P Global Property & REIT 3 S&P Developed Property &
More informationRating Action: Moody's changes the outlook on FCA Bank's senior debt rating to positive from stable
Rating Action: Moody's changes the outlook on FCA Bank's senior debt rating to positive from stable 06 Jul 2018 Action follows positive outlook on FCA Bank's parent Credit Agricole, long-term deposit rating
More informationRating Action: Moody's assigns Counterparty Risk Rating to FCA Bank
Rating Action: Moody's assigns Counterparty Risk Rating to FCA Bank 22 Jun 2018 Counterparty Risk Assessment also assigned to FCA Bank S.p.A., Irish Branch London, 22 June 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service
More informationA1 underlying rating affects $10.97 million in outstanding parity debt, inclusive of the current sale UNDERLYING RATING
New Issue: Moody's assigns A1 underlying and Aaa enhanced rating to Bonham Independent School District's (TX) $7 million Unlimited Tax School Building Bonds, Series 2012 Global Credit Research - 10 Jul
More informationRating Action: Moody's reviews Depfa ACS Bank's public sector covered bonds for downgrade Global Credit Research - 14 Sep 2016
Rating Action: Moody's reviews Depfa ACS Bank's public sector covered bonds for downgrade Global Credit Research - 14 Sep 2016 London, 14 September 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed on
More informationRating Action: Moody's reviews NORD/LB Luxembourg S.A. - Public-Sector Covered Bonds, direction uncertain 19 Dec 2018
Rating Action: Moody's reviews NORD/LB Luxembourg S.A. - Public-Sector Covered Bonds, direction uncertain 19 Dec 2018 London, 19 December 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moodys") has placed on review
More informationGlobal Economic Briefing: Global Liquidity
Global Economic Briefing: Global Liquidity December 21, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at
More informationRating Action: Moody's affirms Hera's Baa1 rating; negative outlook Global Credit Research - 03 Dec 2013
Rating Action: Moody's affirms Hera's Baa1 rating; negative outlook Global Credit Research - 03 Dec 2013 London, 03 December 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today affirmed the Baa1 long-term
More informationMoody s RiskCalc External Model Specification:
Moody's Moody s RiskCalc External Model Specification: Last Updated: May 23, 2003 Contact Phone South Bend Robert Weiss 574.472.5764 Copyright 2002 by Moody s Investors Service, Inc., 99 Church Street,
More informationMarket Correlations: S&P 500
Market Correlations: S&P 500 September 25, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog.
More informationRating Action: Moody's upgrades mortgage covered bonds issued by AIB Mortgage Bank and EBS Mortgage Finance Global Credit Research - 29 Nov 2016
Rating Action: Moody's upgrades mortgage covered bonds issued by AIB Mortgage Bank and EBS Mortgage Finance Global Credit Research - 29 Nov 2016 London, 29 November 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service has
More informationRating Action: Moody's changes outlook to positive on ten Kazakhstani GRIs following outlook change on sovereign
Rating Action: Moody's changes outlook to positive on ten Kazakhstani GRIs following outlook change on sovereign Global Credit Research - 21 Aug 2013 London, 21 August 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service
More informationThe ABCP Market. For the IMF Conference on Operationalizing Systemic Risk Monitoring, May 27, 2010
The ABCP Market For the IMF Conference on Operationalizing Systemic Risk Monitoring, May 27, 2010 Contents ABCP Market Background August 2007 and September 2008 ABCP Market Today 2 ABCP Market Overview
More informationRating Action: Moody's places debt and long-term deposit ratings of Credit Europe Bank N.V. on review for upgrade
Rating Action: Moody's places debt and long-term deposit ratings of Credit Europe Bank N.V. on review for upgrade Global Credit Research - 26 Oct 2017 London, 26 October 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service
More informationMain Street Report Q1 2018
Q1 2018 1 About the report The Experian/Moody s Analytics Main Street Report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape, as well as providing commentary around
More informationStock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy
Stock Market Briefing: S&P Revenues & the Economy December 21, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-36 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at
More informationSession 4: Technical-legal panel: elements for an integrated covered bond framework
Session 4: Technical-legal panel: elements for an integrated covered bond framework Conference on Covered Bonds, 1 February 2016 JANE SOLDERA, VICE PRESIDENT SENIOR CREDIT OFFICER FEBRUARY 2016 Moody s
More informationRating Action: Moody's downgrades Australian bank subordinated debt on increasing bail-in risk Global Credit Research - 05 Sep 2013
Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Australian bank subordinated debt on increasing bail-in risk Global Credit Research - 05 Sep 2013 Sydney, September 05, 2013 -- Sydney, September 04, 2013 -- Moody's Investors
More informationRating Action: Moody's assigns definitive ratings to South African auto ABS notes issued by Transsec 3 (RF) Limited
Rating Action: Moody's assigns definitive ratings to South African auto ABS notes issued by Transsec 3 (RF) Limited Global Credit Research - 08 Nov 2017 ZAR 505 million ABS notes rated, relating to a portfolio
More informationRating Action: Moody's upgrades several Irish mortgage covered bond ratings; actions conclude review
Rating Action: Moody's upgrades several Irish mortgage covered bond ratings; actions conclude review Global Credit Research - 21 May 2015 New counterparty risk assessment affects the covered bond anchors
More informationRating Action: Moody's takes rating actions on Irish mortgage covered bonds Global Credit Research - 26 Sep 2016
Rating Action: Moody's takes rating actions on Irish mortgage covered bonds Global Credit Research - 26 Sep 2016 London, 26 September 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed on review for upgrade
More informationGlobal Credit Research - 24 Jul 2017
Rating Action: Moody's assigns rating to NEPI Rockcastle Plc, Baa3, positive outlook; withdraws rating on New Europe Property Investments plc; rating on NE Property Cooperatief U.A. unaffected at Baa3,
More informationRating Action: Moody's assigns (P)Ba2 ratings to Intrum Justitia AB; outlook positive Global Credit Research - 12 Jun 2017
Rating Action: Moody's assigns (P)Ba2 ratings to Intrum Justitia AB; outlook positive Global Credit Research - 12 Jun 2017 London, 12 June 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has today assigned
More informationDFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Quarterly Performance Report Q2 2014
DFA Global Equity Portfolio (Class F) Quarterly Performance Report Q2 2014 This presentation has been prepared by Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ), manager of the Dimensional Funds.
More informationRating Action: Moody's reviews covered bonds issued by Hypo NOE, Hypo Tirol and Heta AR for upgrade Global Credit Research - 25 May 2016
Rating Action: Moody's reviews covered bonds issued by Hypo NOE, Hypo Tirol and Heta AR for upgrade Global Credit Research - 25 May 2016 London, 25 May 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed
More informationMarket Correlations: Brent Crude Oil
Market Correlations: Brent Crude Oil March 6, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog.
More informationGlobal Economic Briefing: Global Inflation
Global Economic Briefing: Global Inflation November, 7 Dr. Edward Yardeni -97-7 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson -- djohnson@ Mali Quintana -- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the
More information