Connecting Our Greater Communities: Overview

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1 2014 Economic Update Information provided by Jacksonville State University Center for Economic Development and College of Commerce and Business Administration

2 Connecting Our Greater Communities: Overview Quick Peek Big Picture Bucky Hellwig 2012 Calhoun County Update Mark Hearn - JSU CCBA State of Alabama Update Richard Cobb - JSU CCBA National & Regional Update Lesley McClure Regional Executive and Senior Officer with Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Birmingham Branch 1

3 Thanks to Sponsors of Economic Forum Presented by: America s First Federal Credit Union Jacksonville State University Sponsored by: Wells Fargo Bank Webb Concrete & Building Materials Cheaha Bank B.R. Williams Trucking CMP Civilian Marksmanship Program AOD Federal Credit Union Sunny King Automotive Group Regions Bank Anniston Star 2

4 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 17,000 15,000 Jan 2010 Feb (15.78%) 12 Months 13,000 11,000 9,000 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: NY Stock Exchange 3

5 S & P 500 Jan 2010 Feb ,950 1,700 +(22.42%) 12 Months 1,450 1, Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: Yahoo Finance 4

2010-Feb 2014 2,800.00 2,600.00 2,400.00 2,200.

6 3, , European Stock Index (Euro Stoxx 50) Jan 2010-Feb , , , , , Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: www. stoxx.com % 12 Months 5

7 Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index Jan 2010-Dec % 12 Months Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: Standard and Poor s 6

8 U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jan 2010 Feb Jan Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: University of Michigan Institute of Social Research 7

9 ISM Manufacturing: Purchasing Managers Index 60 Jan Feb /1/12 8/1/12 2/1/13 8/1/13 2/1/14 Source: Institute of Supply Management Feb

10 U.S. Real GDP % Change from Preceding Period 1 st Qtr th Qtr % 4.9% 5% 3.9% 4.1% 4% 3.2% 2.8% 3% 2% 1.6% 2.8% 1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0% -1% 2.4% 4 th Qtr % -1.3% 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1 2013q1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 2.4% 9

11 U.S. Industrial Production Jan 2010 Jan % 12 Months Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System 10

12 In $Billions Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services in U.S. Jan 2010-Jan 2014 in $ Bill $440 $ % 12 Months $400 $380 $360 $340 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-14 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 11

13 In Millions Employment in Alabama in Millions Jan - Dec % (-11,622) Jobs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 12

14 KY 8.0% (NC) TN 7.8% (-.02%) Seasonally Adjusted NC 6.9% (-2.5%) SC 6.6% (-2.2%) MS 8.0% (+0.9%) AL 6.1% (-0.7%) GA 7.4% (-2.3%) (12 Month % Change) Revised Unemployment Rates Southeastern United States Dec 2013 FL 6.2% (-1.7%) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 13

76% 12 Months 32,000 2012 2013 22,000 12,000 Jan Feb

15 Claims per Month Initial Unemployment Claims per Month AL 2012 vs , % 12 Months 32, ,000 12,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: Alabama Department of Labor 14

16 % Change Sales Tax and Individual Income Tax Monthly % Change Jan to Dec 2012 vs % 15% 10% 5% +1.81% Sales +4.84% Incomes Sales Tax Income Tax 0% -5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 15

17 State Survey 1st Quarter 2014 Approximately 227 respondents Operated by University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research cber.cba.ua.edu 16

18 % of Respondents Economic Outlook for Alabama Q compared to Q % 44.1% 40% 33.9% 30% 20% 18.5% 10% 0% 1.8% Much Worse Worse Remain the Same Better 1.8% Much Better Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 17

19 Index Value Economic Outlook Index for Alabama Q2 12 Q % 55% % 45% % Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 18

20 % of Respondents Alabama Hiring Outlook Q vs Q % 53.7% 45% 30% 19.8% 22.5% 15% 0% 3.1% Strong Decrease Moderate Decrease No Change Moderate Increase 0.9% Strong Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 19

21 Index Value Alabama Hiring Outlook Q2 11 Q % 55% % % 40% Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 20

22 Economic Indicators Calhoun County 21

23 Calhoun County 2014 Update Membership Survey Population GDP for Calhoun County Labor Force Numbers and Trends Employment Statistics Unemployment Municipal Revenues Housing 22

24 Membership Survey of Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce 2014 Ten years of data from Membership Results for seven questions First chart shows last years results Second chart shows this years results Third chart shows average for 10 years Index value = sum of item values multiplied by response percentages 23

25 Index Value Calculations for Survey Items This year worse 10% 1*.10 This year better 42% 3*.42 About same 48% 2*.48 Source: 2013 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Feb 2013 Index 2.32 = Sum of

26 Q#1: Your Comparison of this Years Economic Outlook to This year worse 10% Last (Feb 2013) This year better 42% About same 48% Source: 2013 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Feb 2013 Index

27 Q#1: Your Comparison of this Years Economic Outlook to Last (Feb 2014) This year worse 8% About same 36% Source: 2014 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey This year better 56% Feb 2014 Index 2.47 Up 6.0% 26

28 Index Value Q#1: Your Comparison of this Years Economic Outlook to Last Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 10 Yr Avg

29 Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year (Feb 2013) Cutback # emp 9% Expand # emp 24% Remain same 67% Source: 2013 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Feb 2013 Index

30 Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year (Feb 2014) Cutback # emp 11% Expand # emp 35% Remain same 54% Source: 2014 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Feb 2014 Index 2.24 Up 4.2% 29

31 Index Value Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year Yr Avg Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 30

32 Remain same 75 Q#3: How Likely to Increase Employee Compensation in Very unlikely 21% Coming Year (Feb 2013) Very likely 30% May or may not 49% Source: 2013 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Feb 2013 Index

33 Remain same 75 Q#3: How Likely to Increase Employee Compensation in Coming Year (Feb 2014) Very unlikely 17% Very likely 38% May or may not 45% Source: 2014 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Feb 2014 Index 2.21 Up 13.3% 32

34 Index Value Q#3: How Likely to Increase Employee Compensation in Coming Year Yr Avg Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 33

35 Remain same 75 Q#4: How Likely is Increase in Demand for Your Products in Coming Year (Feb 2013) Very unlikely 11% Very likely 41% May or may not 48% Source: 2013 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Feb 2013 Index

36 Very Remain same 75 Q#4: How Likely is Increase in Demand for Your Products in Coming Year (Feb 2014) May or may not 49% Very unlikely 6% Source: 2014 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey likely 45% Feb 2014 Index 2.39 Up 3.04% 35

37 Index Value Q#4: How Likely is Increase in Demand for Your Products in Coming Year Yr Avg Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 36

38 Remain same 75 Q#5: How Likely to Add New Products in Coming Year Very unlikely 27% (Feb 2013) Very likely 41% May or may not 32% Feb 2013 Index 2.14 Source: 2013 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 37

39 Remain same 75 Q#5: How Likely to Add New Products in Coming Year Very unlikely 20% (Feb 2014) Very likely 49% May or may not 31% Feb 2014 Index 2.29 Up 7.0% Source: 2014 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 38

40 Index Value Q#5: How Likely to Add New Products in Coming Year Yr Avg Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 39

41 Remain same 75 Q#6: How Likely to Expand Number of Outlets in Coming Year (Feb 2013) Very likely 12% Very unlikely 68% Source: 2013 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey May or may not 20% Feb 2013 Index

42 Remain same 75 Q#6: How Likely to Expand Number of Outlets in Coming Year (Feb 2014) Very likely 17% Very unlikely 61% Source: 2014 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey May or may not 22% Feb 2014 Index 1.56 Up 8.33% 41

43 Index Value Q#6: How Likely to Expand Number of Outlets in Coming Year Yr Avg Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 42

44 Remain same 75 Q#7: How Likely to Increase Expenditures on Advertising Very unlikely 36% in Coming Year (Feb 2013) Very likely 28% Feb 2013 Index 1.92 Source: 2013 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey May or may not 36% 43

45 same 75 Q#7: How Likely to Increase Expenditures on Advertising in Coming Year (Jan 2014) Very unlikely 38% Remain Very likely 23% Feb 2014 Index 1.83 Down 4.7% Source: 2014 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey May or may not 39% 44

46 Index Value Q#7: How Likely to Increase Expenditures on Advertising in Coming Year Yr Avg Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 45

47 Membership Survey: Change in Index Value Overall Economic Outlook Up 6% Increase Number of Employees Up 4.2% Increase Employee Pay Up 13.3% Increased Demand for Products Up 3.04% Add New Products Up 7.0% Expand Number of Outlets Up 8.33% Increase Advertising Spending Down 4.7% 46

48 In Thousands Population Trends Calhoun County in Thousands , , Source: U.S. Census Bureau 47

49 Billions of Current $ GDP Calhoun County Billions of Current $ $ $ $3.0 $ % $ Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 48

50 In Thousands Labor Force Calhoun County in Thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 49

51 In Thousands Labor Force Calhoun County Jan Dec 2013 in Thousands for 12 Months Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 50

52 In Thousands Employment for Calhoun County in Thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 51

53 In Thousands Employment Calhoun County Jan Dec 2013 in Thousands for 12 Months Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 52

54 % Unemployed Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County % 9.9% 9.8% 9.2% 9% 7% 5% 3% 8.0% 7.2% 5.1% 3.8% 3.5%3.50% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 53

55 % Unemployed Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County % Not Seasonally Adjusted 9% 8.2% 8% 7.5% 7.1% 8.1% 7.1% 7.2% 7% 7.4% 7.5% 7.3% 6.1% 6% 6.5% 6.1% 5% Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 54

56 6.7% Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2012 State Ave 6.5% Unemployment Rate 7.9% and Below 8.0% % 10.3% and Above Source: Alabama Department of Labor Not Seasonally Adjusted 55

57 6.1% Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2013 State Ave 5.7% Unemployment Rate 7.7% and Below 7.8% - 9.6% 9.7% and Above Source: Alabama Department of Labor Not Seasonally Adjusted 56

58 Claims per Month Initial Unemployment Claims per Month Calhoun County 1,400 1, vs % Total # of Claims 12 Months Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: Alabama Department of Labor 57

59 In Thousands Private Industry Employees for Calhoun County in Thousands Jan 2008-Dec Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 58

60 In Thousands Private Industry Employees for Calhoun County in Thousands Jan - Dec % (+400) Jobs 34 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 59

61 Employment Peak to Trough % Change AL MSAs Jan 07- Jan 10 1% AL Ann Aub Bham Deca Doth Flor Gads Hunt Mob Mont Tusc -4% -4.26% -9% -14% % % -8.05% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -8.93% % % % % -9.09% -9.14% % 60

62 Employment Trough to Now % Change AL MSAs 15% 13% 10% 8% 5% 3% 0% 6.67% 3.23% Dec 10- Dec % 12.71% 7.50% 7.32% 4.63% 9.01% 9.44% 5.24% 5.92% 5.04% Tusc Mont Mob Hunt Gads Flor Doth Deca Bham Aub Ann AL Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 61

63 Employment Peak to Now % Change AL MSAs 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% -4.7% AL -10.0% Ann 4.5% Aub Dec 07- Dec %-4.8% Bham Deca -8.7% Doth -0.7% -3.02% Flor Gads 0.8% Hunt -3.7% -4.6% Mob Mont 1.2% Tusc Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 62

64 Hours Worked per Week Private Industry Ave # Hrs Worked per Week Calhoun County Jan 07Jan 08Jan 09Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 63

65 Hours Worked per Week Private Industry Ave # Hrs Worked per Week Calhoun County Jan - Dec % 12 Months Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 64

66 Hours Worked per Week Private Industry Ave # Hrs Worked per Week Calhoun County Jan - Dec % 12 Months Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 65

67 $ per Hour Private Industry Ave Hourly Earnings for Calhoun County $19 $18 $17 $16 $15 $14 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 66

68 $ per Hour Private Industry Ave Hourly Earnings for Calhoun County Jan Dec 2012 $16.5 $16.0 $15.5 $15.0 $14.5 $15.70 $15.56 $ % 12 Months $15.17 $14.96 $15.38 $15.31 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 67

69 $ per Hour Private Industry Ave Hourly Earnings for Calhoun County Jan Dec 2013 $18 $17 $16 $ % 12 Months $15.92 $16.17 $16.01 $16.39 $17.11 $17.07 $15 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 68

70 In $ Millions State Sales Tax Collections from Calhoun County FY FY in $ Millions $30 $28 $ % Fiscal Yr $25.24 $28.00 $29.12 $23 $21.37 $21.40 $ Source: AL Dept of Revenue 69

71 In $ Millions $22 $21 $20 $19 $18 $17 $16 Source: City of Anniston Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY06-07 FY12-13 Anniston in $ Millions % FY $17.90 $17.89 $18.05 $17.33 $17.13 $17.47 * $19.03 * $ * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective April 2012 (25%) 70

72 % Change 32% 24% 16% 8% 0% -8% -16% Sales, Use, Lodging Tax Monthly Change FY vs FY 12-13* Anniston (Oct-Sept) in Percent 23% 25%29% 26% 17% 19% 5% 7% 9% 4% 0% -8% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Source: City of Anniston * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective April 2012 (25%) 71

73 In $ Millions Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct, Nov, & Dec 2012 vs 2013 Anniston in $ Millions $ $2.198 $1.85 $1.814 $1.697 $1.677 $1.640 $1.897 $1.55 $1.25 Oct Nov Dec Source: City of Anniston 72

74 In $ Millions Sales & Use Tax Collected by AL Annual Total FY05-06 FY12-13 Oxford in $ Millions $28 $25 $23 $20 $ % FY $20.78 $17.34 $17.89 $24.25 $24.46$25.28 $25.53 $22.59 $ Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 73

75 % Change 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% Source: City of Oxford Sales, Use Tax Monthly Change 3.1% 0.3% 1.6% FY vs FY Oxford (Oct-Sept) in Percent -0.7% -1.4% 2.9% -0.9% 1.2% 3.5% -0.5% 1.1% 8.4% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept 74

76 In $ Millions Sales, Use & Rental Tax Oct, Nov, & Dec 2012 vs 2013 Oxford in $ Millions $2.3 $2.2 $2.1 $2.0 $1.9 $1.8 $1.7 Source: City of Oxford 2012 $ $2.17 $2.16 $2.18 $2.04 $2.03 Oct Nov Dec 75

77 In $ Millions Sales & Use Tax Annual Total FY05-06 FY12-13 Jacksonville in $ Millions $7.5 $6.5 $5.5 $ % FY $4.83 $5.11 $5.28 $5.33 $5.30 $5.49 * $6.54 $6.81 $ Source: City of Jacksonville * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective Nov 2011 (25%) 76

78 % Change Sales, Use Tax Monthly Change FY vs FY Jacksonville (Oct-Sept) in Percent 40% 30% 32% * 20% 10% 0% -10% 7% 2% 4% 6% 1% 0% -5% 6% 5% 0% -3% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Source: City of Jacksonville * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective Nov 2011 (25%) 77

79 In $ Millions Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY09-10 FY11-12 Piedmont in $ Millions $1.50 $1.46 $1.45 $1.46 $1.42 $1.38 $1.37 $1.36 $1.34 $1.30 Source: City of Piedmont

80 In $ Thousands Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct, Nov, & Dec 2012 vs 2013 $140 $130 $120 Piedmont in $ Thousands 2012 $130 $ $122 $115 $116 $115 $110 $100 Oct Nov Dec Source: City of Piedmont 79

81 In $ Thousands Sales, Use Tax Annual Total FY07-08 FY12-13 Weaver in $ Thousands $350 $ $315 $280 $245 $210 Source: City of Weaver $ $ $ $ $

82 In $ Thousands Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct, Nov, & Dec 2012 vs 2013 Weaver in $ Thousands $42 $36 $ $41.61 $29 $26.92 $23 $20.42 $21.35 $21.51 $16 Oct Nov Dec Source: City of Weaver 81

83 Housing Calhoun County 2012 vs % Change Total Homes Sold % Avg Selling Price $111,223 $117, % Avg Days on Market % Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Total Homes Listed 1,103 1, % Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 82

84 Home Sales/Month Average Number of Home Sales Per Month Calhoun County Avg Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 83

85 Total Number of Homes Sold Per Month 2012 vs (9.8%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 84

86 AHA Index Higher is Better 280 Calhoun County Housing Affordability Index 4th Q 2013 (Higher is Better) Calhoun Bham HuntsvilleAlabama U.S. Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 85

87 Calhoun County: Summing it Up Membership Survey- Growing Optimism Population- Down slightly, Near Record Levels Employment- Slightly Up, Trend is Positive Unemployment- Dec %, Dec % Municipal Revenues- Up (Some Apples to Oranges Housing Market- Up 9.82% Total Homes Sold 86

88 State of Alabama Update Workforce Dynamics Construction and Housing Manufacturing Education Achievemens 2003 Other Issues Energy Strategic Drivers 87

89 in 1,000,000 Population for Alabama in Millions Source: U.S. Census Bureau 88

90 Atlas Van Lines Moving Trends Map 2013 Inbound Outbound Balanced Source: Atlas Van Lines Migration Patterns Study

91 In Millions Employment Alabama Civilian Labor Force in Millions Seasonally Adjusted Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations, Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS 90

92 Employment in Millions Alabama Non-Farm Employment Source: BLS, Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations 91

93 Employment in 1,000s Alabama Employment by Sector Professional/Business Education/Health Government Manufacturing Gov Source: BLS, Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations 92

94 Alabama Components of GDP $Billions of Current Dollars $Billion Government Manuf-All Education/Health Retail Trade Const Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 93

95 Percent of GDP 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% Alabama vs. U.S. Value Added Activities Share of GDP 2013 U.S. Ala 8.0% 6.8% 5.8% 6.6% 6.0% Non-Durable Manuf Durable Goods Manuf 7.4% 10.8% 16.2% Retail Trade Government 8.5% 8.0% Edu & Health Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Alabama Economic Outlook 94

96 Employed in Millions Total U.S. Non- Farm Employment in Millions Source: BLS 95

97 Employment in Millions U.S. Employment by Sector in Millions Gov Goods Manuf. Prof/Bus Edu/Health Gov Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics 96

98 Employment in Millions U.S. Non-Farm Goods Producing Employment % of non-farm workers Source: BLS 13.7% of non- farm workers 18.6 million

99 Percent 30% 25% U.S. All Goods Producing Employment as Percent of All Non-Farm Employment % 15% 13.6% 10% Source: BLS 98

100 Percent of Population Employed U.S. Employment Population Ratio % Good Economic Gauge 58.6% 56 Portion of working age Pop n employed Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 99

101 % of Population Employed Alabama Employment Population Ratio % % Source: Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 100

102 Participation Rate Percent U.S. Labor Participation Rate Percent Participation Rate= Pop n Working/Looking for work Total of Pop n of same age group Source: BLS, Social Security Admin. 101

103 Unemployment Rate Percent Unemployment States with Lowest and Highest Rates US ND SD NE WY IA CA MI IL NV RI Source: BLS 102

104 % Unemployed Unemployment Rate for Alabama % 9.8% 9.9% 9.5% 8% 6% Seasonally Adjusted 5.4% 5.1% 7.3% 6.3% 4% 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 2% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 103

105 Percent Unemployment Rate Alabama vs. United States Jan 2013 Dec % 8% 7.9% Seasonally Adjusted Alabama United States 7% 6% 6.7% 6.9% 6.1% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations 104

106 Number of Weeks U.S. Average Weeks Unemployed Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 105

107 Housing Statistics for Alabama YTD Dec 12 vs YTD Dec 13 YTD Dec 2012 YTD Dec 2013 % Change Total Homes Sold 39,148 43, % Avg Selling Price $152,291 $153, % Avg Days on Market % Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Total Homes Listed 30,869 31, % Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 106

108 GDP and Building Permits U.S. and Ala GDP 0% US GDP % US Permits (mil) Ala Permits (1000) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Census Bureau 107

109 Million Total Units Single Unit 1,682,000 Multi Units 5+ U.S. Building Permits Privately-Owned Housing Units ,155, , Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Census Bureau 976, , ,

110 Ala. Building Permits for Privately-Owned Housing Units (000) Total Units 24,654 32,034 Single Unit Multi Units ,954 8, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Census Bureau 109

111 Housing Vacancies U.S Percent Total Number of Units Vacant (millions) % 13.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Units Vacant (Percent) 110

112 Employment in Millions U.S. Construction Employment in Millions Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), BLS 111

113 Employment in Thousands Alabama Construction Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 112

114 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales in Millions In Millions Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, BEA 113

115 In Millions U.S. Motor Vehicle Car and Light Truck 14 Production Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) 114

116 U.S. Motor Vehicle Car & Lt. Truck Production Millions Millions Total for All Auto Manufacturers (millions) Total Foreign-Affiliated Mfg. (millions) Source: U.S. ESA, Federal Reserve System, Int. Org. of Motor Vehicle Manuf. (OICA)

117 U.S. Motor Vehicles and Parts Manufacturing (000,000) 14 Employment: ,300, , Source: U.S. BLS, BEA, 116

118 Employees (Millions) U.S. Majority-Owned Foreign Affiliates Operations Including Automobiles (Employees in Millions) $Billions Millions of Employees $Billions Cap Investment(est.) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 117

119 In Thousands Alabama Motor Vehicle Production Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama (EDPA), Alabama Automotive Manufacturers Association (AAMA) 118

120 Employment in 1000s Alabama Motor Vehicle and Parts Employment Employment Vehicle Manuf (000) MB Employment Parts Manuf (000) Honda IH Toyota Hyundai Source: U. S. BEA, BLS 119

121 Southeast Auto Industry Ford GM Nissan GM GM Toyota 22 Ford Mercedes 65 Peterbilt Volkswagen Nissan BMW GM Honda Toyota Hyundai Kia Volvo/Mack Trucks Freightliner Freightliner Freightliner Custom Chassis Sprinter Heavy Truck Auto and Light Truck Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama *Assembles Dodge Sprinter vans 120

122 Automotive Industry Clusters in Alabama More than 383 Automotive Companies and Suppliers in AL Auto Suppliers by Zip Code

123 Gasoline Billions of Gallons U.S. Gasoline Consumption Billions of Gallons CAFÉ mpg mpg mpg By 2022 Renewable Use Req (EISA) 36 Billion GallonsTotal, Corn <= 15 Bil Cellulosic 16 Billion, Biodiesel 5 Bil Source: EIA 122

124 Class 8 Heavy Duty Trucks CO2 and Fuel Consumption Standards Fuel Std.- Authority EISA 2007 (NHTSA) Emissions Std.- Authority(Clean Air Act) EPA Current Fuel Efficiency Cat Gal/1000 ton-mi Gross wt. Typ mpg Mi./ton/gal. Cars lb Trucks(8) K-80K Source: The National Academies, DieselNet-Emission Standards 123

125 Economic Strategic Drivers Natural Gas /Fuel Question? Possible Major Player Rail and Truck Conversion Cost? Clean-Air Regs - Add Regs & 2017 Natural Gas Price Stability? Early Adopters Bus Fleets, Trash Trucks 124

126 Thousands of Units/Quarter Percent Change in GDP U. S. Heavy Trucks Sales Thousands/Quarter Source: BEA Class 5-8 Truck Sales/Qtr (000s) GDP/Qtr % MONTHS

127 Alabama Aerospace Airbus A320 Delta Atlas V Source: nasa.gov, airbus.com 126

128 Population Census Up Regional Pop Growth low Employment Improving Unemployment Rate Improved State of Alabama Summary Auto Base Growing Auto Fuel Uncertainty Housing Stable Workforce Participation Population Ratio Trend Education Regional Avg. Industry Growth Income Regional Avg. Opportunities 127

129 2014 Economic Update Calhoun County & State of Alabama Calhoun County Survey- Up Employment- Up Unemployment- Down Sales Tax- Up Housing- Up State Survey-1 st Q Down Alabama Gross State Product Up State Tax Revenues Up Housing- Up 128

Thanks to Sponsors of Economic Forum

2013 Economic Update Information provided by Jacksonville State University Center for Economic Development and College of Commerce and Business Administration Thanks to Sponsors of Economic Forum Presenting