ECONOMIC UPDATE. (Northeast Alabama Regional Economic Indicators) September 2017

Transcription

1 ECONOMIC UPDATE (Northeast Alabama Regional Economic Indicators) September 2017 Center for Economic Development and Business Research School of Business and Industry Jacksonville State University 700 Pelham Road North Merrill Hall Room 114 Jacksonville, Alabama Phone: Website: jsu.edu/ced 1

2 Table of Contents Introduction: Welcome and Background 5 Contact Information 6 Workforce - Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment 7 Blount County 8 Calhoun County 9 Cherokee County 10 Clay County 11 Cleburne County 12 DeKalb County 13 Etowah County 14 Marshall County 15 Randolph County 16 St. Clair County 17 Talladega County 18 Region Outlook 19 Sales Tax 20 Blount County 21 Calhoun County 22 Cherokee County 23 Clay County 24 Cleburne County 25 DeKalb County 26 Etowah County 27 Marshall County 28 Randolph County 29 St. Clair County 30 Talladega County 31 Region Outlook 32 2

3 Lodging Tax 33 Blount County 34 Calhoun County 35 Cherokee County 36 Clay County 37 Cleburne County 38 DeKalb County 39 Etowah County 40 Marshall County 41 Randolph County 42 St. Clair County 43 Talladega County 44 Region Outlook 45 Housing - Average Home Price 46 Blount County 47 Calhoun County 48 Cherokee County 49 Clay County 50 Cleburne County 51 DeKalb County 52 Etowah County 53 Marshall County 54 Randolph County 55 St. Clair County 56 Talladega County 57 Region Outlook 58 Housing - Average Sold Price 59 Blount County 60 Calhoun County 61 Cherokee County 62 Clay County 63 Cleburne County 64 DeKalb County 65 Etowah County 66 Marshall County 67 Randolph County 68 St. Clair County 69 Talladega County 70 Region Outlook 71 3

4 Gasoline - Average Sales Price 72 Blount County 73 Calhoun County 74 Cherokee County 75 Clay County 76 Cleburne County 77 DeKalb County 78 Etowah County 79 Marshall County 80 Randolph County 81 St. Clair County 82 Talladega County 83 Region Outlook 84 Seasonal Feature Summary of Deposits 85 Feature Graphs 86 Blount County 87 Calhoun County 88 Cherokee County 89 Clay County 90 Cleburne County 91 DeKalb County 92 Etowah County 93 Marshall County 94 Randolph County 95 St. Clair County 96 Talladega County 97 Region Outlook 98 4

5 Introduction Welcome to the September 2017 edition of the Jacksonville State University (JSU) Economic Update. Our goal is to be a continual source of county level data for economic developers, government policy makers, and business analysts to consider when evaluating the economic potential of northeast Alabama. Local and regional economic indicators are considered across an eleven county area and are analyzed within several reference periods. The economic areas examined include civilian labor force and unemployment, sales and lodging taxes, price and sales trends within housing industry, and gasoline price trends. Counties analyzed are Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega. A measure of annualized volatility is included for each economic category. Volatility levels are assigned as higher, moderate, or lower in analyzing data variability. For the reference period of July 2016 through June 2017, the civilian labor force decreased at an annualized trend of 0.10 percent in the region, but increased by 0.12 percent for the state. Over twelve months, average unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent for the region and the state. The region unemployment rate from May to June 2017 increased from 4.2 percent to 5.1 percent, while unemployment rate statewide decreased 4.9 percent to 4.6 percent. State unemployment rate has declined during each month of Unemployment rate volatility is low. Trends in sales and lodging taxes collected are reported within a reference period of July through December For the region, sales tax collection decreased by 0.36 percent, while lodging tax collection decreased by 3.25 percent. Statewide, sales tax collection also increased by 0.36 percent, but lodging tax collection decreased by a much larger percent. For the most recent three month trend of the reference period, October to December 2016, sales tax collection in the region increased by 3.87 percent and 2.84 percent for the state. Lodging tax collection increased by 1.64 percent for the region and declined by percent for the state. Overall, sales tax volatility was lower and lodging tax collection volatility was higher, when considering the level of variance. The variable for each measure is highly seasonal. Housing trends are positive and reflect an increasingly healthy housing market across each reference period of time. For the full reference period trend of March through August 2017, average home price increased by 0.25 percent and 0.85 percent for the region and state, while average sold price increased by 2.43 percent and 0.81 percent, respectively. In the June to August 2017 reference period trend, average home price decreased by 0.65 percent in the region and by 1.40 percent for the state, while average sold price increased 0.61 percent in the region and remained unchanged for the state, respectively. In August 2017 there were 732 homes for sale in the region. Average sold price in the region increased marginally from $111,273 to $112,455 and remained $155,000 statewide. Gasoline prices are analyzed for county, region, state and nation. Within the reference period of March through August 2017, prices reflect a downward trend across each geographic category, interrupted by a spike from July to August. In the June to August 2017 reference period, prices were unchanged in the region, up by 0.34 percent in the state, and down by 0.34 percent in the nation, with low price volatility. Sincerely, Benjamin Boozer, Editor 5

6 Dr. Benjamin B. Boozer, Jr., Assistant Professor of Finance, Editor Ms. Amy A. Anderson, Research Analyst, Assistant Editor Ms. Jennifer Green, Director, Center for Economic Development and Business Research Dr. William T. Fielding, Dean, School of Business and Industry 6

7 Workforce- Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate The analysis to follow considers county civilian labor force data and county, region, and state unemployment rates for reference months of July 2016 through June A twelve month average is also included for each variable. Workforce analysis consists of the civilian labor force measured in relation to the unemployment rate for each county in the coverage area (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties), the region as an average of each county in the coverage area, and for the state overall. An analysis summary considers the twelve months of the reference period and measures the rate of change in the civilian labor force for that geographic area. Positive values indicate an increasing civilian labor force trend within the reference period, while negative values reflect a declining trend. Monthly unemployment volatility for county, region, and state is annualized to reflect standard deviation from an expected value. Unemployment volatility is a relative measure of labor force stability, with values of 1.40 percent to 1.80 less labor market variance. Increases or decreases in each variable considered, civilian labor force and unemployment percent subjectively considered as moderate volatility and values lower than or equal to and higher than or equal to that range indicative of lower and higher levels of volatility, respectively. Lower volatility levels reflect rates, and directional changes for the current reporting month from the prior month are expressed in the analysis. The civilian labor force is the sum of civilian employment and civilian unemployment. These individuals are civilians (not members of the armed services) who are at least sixteen years of age and not institutionalized and are otherwise eligible to work. From the measure of the civilian labor force it is possible to calculate the labor participation rate as the active portion of an economy s labor force that is either working or actively looking for a job. Otherwise that person is not part of the labor force and is neither counted as employed or unemployed. An increasing civilian labor force reflects that more people are entering or re-entering the labor force, an indication of economic strength. County unemployment data are not seasonally adjusted, while State of Alabama data are seasonally adjusted. The major difference is that non-seasonally adjusted data exacerbate seasonal effects. From the information provided it is possible to calculate the employment rate as 100 percent minus the unemployment rate. Thus, if an unemployment rate for an area is 5 percent, for example, 95 percent of the civilian labor force is working. A key concern is that during periods of economic slowdown eligible workers leave the labor force and no longer look for work, thereby reducing the overall rate of labor force participation. Workforce is an economic indicator that shows the degree which workers are participating and to what extent those workers are unable to find employment. Labor force participation rates are positively associated with general economic trends, while the unemployment rate is countercyclical and is inversely associated with economic trends. Higher levels of labor force participation and lower levels of unemployment indicate a stronger economy. Analyzing county data along with the region and state offers relative comparison measurements. The source of data is the Alabama Department of Labor. 7

8 Civilian Labor Force Blount County 25, % 7.5% 25, % 6.5% 24, % 5.5% 24, % 4.5% 24, % 3.5% 24, % Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Blount County, Region, & State Unemployment Rate Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 24, % 5.6% 5.6% June , % 5.1% 4.6% May , % 4.2% 4.9% April , % 4.4% 5.4% March , % 5.4% 5.8% February , % 6.2% 6.2% January , % 6.9% 6.4% December , % 5.9% 6.2% November , % 5.6% 5.9% October , % 6.0% 5.7% September , % 5.7% 5.4% August , % 5.6% 5.4% July , % 5.7% 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Unemployment Rate Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend % N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 8

9 Civilian Labor Force 47,000 46,800 46,600 46,400 46,200 46,000 45,800 45,600 Calhoun County 45, % 45, % Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% Unemployment Rate Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Calhoun County, Region, & State Unemployment Rate Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 46, % 5.6% 5.6% June , % 5.1% 4.6% May , % 4.2% 4.9% April , % 4.4% 5.4% March , % 5.4% 5.8% February , % 6.2% 6.2% January , % 6.9% 6.4% December , % 5.9% 6.2% November , % 5.6% 5.9% October , % 6.0% 5.7% September , % 5.7% 5.4% August , % 5.7% 5.4% July , % 5.7% 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Unemployment Rate Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend -0.19% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 9

10 Civilian Labor Force 11,600 11,500 11,400 11,300 11,200 11,100 Cherokee County 4.0% 11, % 10, % Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Unemployment Rate Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Cherokee County, Region, & State Unemployment Rate Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 11, % 5.6% 5.6% June , % 5.1% 4.6% May , % 4.2% 4.9% April , % 4.4% 5.4% March , % 5.4% 5.8% February , % 6.2% 6.2% January , % 6.9% 6.4% December , % 5.9% 6.2% November , % 5.6% 5.9% October , % 6.0% 5.7% September , % 5.7% 5.4% August , % 5.7% 5.4% July , % 5.7% 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Unemployment Rate Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend -0.13% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 #NAME? 10

11 Civilian Labor Force 5,800 5,750 5,700 5,650 5,600 5,550 5,500 Clay County 5, % 5, % 5, % Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Unemployment Rate Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Clay County, Region, & State Unemployment Rate Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 5, % 5.6% 5.6% June , % 5.1% 4.6% May , % 4.2% 4.9% April , % 4.4% 5.4% March , % 5.4% 5.8% February , % 6.2% 6.2% January , % 6.9% 6.4% December , % 5.9% 6.2% November , % 5.6% 5.9% October , % 6.0% 5.7% September , % 5.7% 5.4% August , % 5.7% 5.4% July , % 5.7% 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Unemployment Rate Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.05% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 11

12 Civilian Labor Force 6,100 6,050 6,000 5,950 5,900 5,850 5,800 5,750 Cleburne County 5, % 5, % 5, % Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Unemployment Rate Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Cleburne County, Region, & State Unemployment Rate Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 5, % 5.6% 5.6% June , % 5.1% 4.6% May , % 4.2% 4.9% April , % 4.4% 5.4% March , % 5.4% 5.8% February , % 6.2% 6.2% January , % 6.9% 6.4% December , % 5.9% 6.2% November , % 5.6% 5.9% October , % 6.0% 5.7% September , % 5.7% 5.4% August , % 5.7% 5.4% July , % 5.7% 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Unemployment Rate Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend -0.11% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 12

13 Civilian Labor Force 30,500 30,000 29,500 29,000 28,500 DeKalb County 4.0% 28, % 27, % Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Unemployment Rate Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate DeKalb County, Region, & State Unemployment Rate Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 29, % 5.6% 5.6% June , % 5.1% 4.6% May , % 4.2% 4.9% April , % 4.4% 5.4% March , % 5.4% 5.8% February , % 6.2% 6.2% January , % 6.9% 6.4% December , % 5.9% 6.2% November , % 5.6% 5.9% October , % 6.0% 5.7% September , % 5.7% 5.4% August , % 5.7% 5.4% July , % 5.7% 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Unemployment Rate Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend -0.40% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 13

14 Civilian Labor Force 44,800 44,600 44,400 44,200 44,000 43,800 Etowah County 4.0% 43, % 43, % Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Unemployment Rate Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Etowah County, Region, & State Unemployment Rate Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 44, % 5.6% 5.6% June , % 5.1% 4.6% May , % 4.2% 4.9% April , % 4.4% 5.4% March , % 5.4% 5.8% February , % 6.2% 6.2% January , % 6.9% 6.4% December , % 5.9% 6.2% November , % 5.6% 5.9% October , % 6.0% 5.7% September , % 5.7% 5.4% August , % 5.7% 5.4% July , % 5.7% 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Unemployment Rate Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.15% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 14

15 Civilian Labor Force 42,400 42,200 42,000 41,800 41,600 41,400 41,200 Marshall County 41, % 40, % 40, % Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Unemployment Rate Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Marshall County, Region, & State Unemployment Rate Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 41, % 5.6% 5.6% June , % 5.1% 4.6% May , % 4.2% 4.9% April , % 4.4% 5.4% March , % 5.4% 5.8% February , % 6.2% 6.2% January , % 6.9% 6.4% December , % 5.9% 6.2% November , % 5.6% 5.9% October , % 6.0% 5.7% September , % 5.7% 5.4% August , % 5.7% 5.4% July , % 5.7% 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Unemployment Rate Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.02% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 15

16 Civilian Labor Force 9,700 9,600 9,500 9,400 9,300 Randolph County 4.0% 9, % 9, % Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Unemployment Rate Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Randolph County, Region, & State Unemployment Rate Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 9, % 5.6% 5.6% June , % 5.1% 4.6% May , % 4.2% 4.9% April , % 4.4% 5.4% March , % 5.4% 5.8% February , % 6.2% 6.2% January , % 6.9% 6.4% December , % 5.9% 6.2% November , % 5.6% 5.9% October , % 6.0% 5.7% September , % 5.7% 5.4% August , % 5.7% 5.4% July , % 5.7% 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Unemployment Rate Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend -0.21% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 16

17 Civilian Labor Force 39,400 39,200 39,000 38,800 38,600 St. Clair County 4.0% 38, % 38, % Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% Unemployment Rate Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate St. Clair County, Region, & State Unemployment Rate Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 38, % 5.6% 5.6% June , % 5.1% 4.6% May , % 4.2% 4.9% April , % 4.4% 5.4% March , % 5.4% 5.8% February , % 6.2% 6.2% January , % 6.9% 6.4% December , % 5.9% 6.2% November , % 5.6% 5.9% October , % 6.0% 5.7% September , % 5.7% 5.4% August , % 5.7% 5.4% July , % 5.7% 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Unemployment Rate Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend -0.06% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 17

18 Talladega County Civilian Labor Force 35,600 35,400 35,200 35,000 34,800 34,600 34,400 34,200 34, % 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Unemployment Rate 33, % Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Talladega County, Region, & State Unemployment Rate Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 34, % 5.6% 5.6% June , % 5.1% 4.6% May , % 4.2% 4.9% April , % 4.4% 5.4% March , % 5.4% 5.8% February , % 6.2% 6.2% January , % 6.9% 6.4% December , % 5.9% 6.2% November , % 5.6% 5.9% October , % 6.0% 5.7% September , % 5.7% 5.4% August , % 5.7% 5.4% July , % 5.7% 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Unemployment Rate Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend -0.18% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 18

19 Labor Force (in Thousands) 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 Region vs. State of Alabama % 2.0% % 0 0.0% Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun % 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Unemployment Rate Region Civilian Labor Force Region Unemployment Rate State Civilian Labor Force State Unemployment Rate Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Region & State Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Reference Month Region State Region State 12 Month Average 292,051 2,189, % 5.6% June ,486 2,177, % 4.6% May ,537 2,195, % 4.9% April ,293 2,207, % 5.4% March ,279 2,208, % 5.8% February ,088 2,204, % 6.2% January ,209 2,195, % 6.4% December ,347 2,203, % 6.2% November ,859 2,194, % 5.9% October ,406 2,182, % 5.7% September ,788 2,165, % 5.4% August ,800 2,156, % 5.4% July ,524 2,182, % 5.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary Labor Force Unemployment Rate Region State Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Jun 17 Labor Force Growth Trend -0.10% 0.12% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Lower Lower Reference Period: May 17 - Jun 17 19

20 Sales Tax Sales tax data are provided and analyzed for a six month reference period of July through December 2016 for each county and selected city(s). Region data are offered relative to each county and as a comparison to state data on the final chart. Sales tax collection is analyzed as follows: monthly high and low values are identified within the entire six month reference period for the region and each local variable, county and selected city(s) within the county; trend in increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the entire reference period and the most recent three months; and directional changes from prior month to most recent month reported. Trend values reflect rate of change of sales tax collection within each respective reporting period. Volatility indicates the extent of retail sales stability and is expressed as an annualized standard deviation of monthly variances in collection. Higher sales tax collection volatility denotes a less stable retail trade environment, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest that retail trade trends experience less fluctuation. Trend values and volatility offer strong measures of relative comparison. Sales taxes collected are a measure of consumer spending and retail sector economic activity. The relationship between sales taxes collected and economic activity is positive; that is, a stronger economy produces more commerce, higher consumer spending on goods, and thus taxes collected. A weaker economy is characterized by less consumer spending and sales tax revenues. Seasonal effects will occur and have a major impact on this variable as the Christmas holiday season is a strong driver of consumer spending. Some counties may have more retail trade and some less, but the trend within the county reflects the directional strength of the retail economy for that county. With consumer spending comprising approximately 70 percent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product this is an important economic indicator to capture that aspect of the economy. Sales taxes are tallied for each county and for selected cities within each county (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) and averaged for each county across the region. With each county including various numbers of cities, we standardize sales tax reporting for the region to include a summation of each county. Region and state cross sectional and time series comparisons offer further insight into relative retail activity. Sources of data are respective county and city administrations in addition to the Alabama Department of Revenue (ADOR) and Revenue Discovery Systems (RDS). Sales tax data are reported independently for each city, county, and state. Data do not reflect all cities within a county, but rather a representative sample. County sales tax data consist of that portion of sales taxes collected and remitted to the county, and are not a summation of selected city sales tax values, but are rather to be considered as a separate measure of sales tax revenue. Region sales taxes represent an average of county sales taxes within the reference area. We do not include city or other jurisdictional entities in this data in order to standardize an average that would apply to each county. Our analysis does not include all cities in each county, but rather selected city(s). Therefore, a more accurate depiction of region economic activity is an average of county sales tax data, which applies to each county. We are reliant upon various sources to supply sales tax data. There is not a database of current data available to access. There is also a lag associated with collection and reporting of this economic indicator that could affect the availability of the data for some reference months.. 20

21 Sales Tax $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 Blount County $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $300,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Oneonta $375,100 $374,919 $369,908 $368,699 $362,041 $382,527 County $509,196 $491,568 $478,960 $492,734 $472,214 $474,611 Region* $558,034 $527,057 $512,307 $519,658 $542,806 $560,670 Sales Tax Oneonta County Region* Source: RDS (Blount County and Oneonta) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. This data does not contain city or other jurisdiction data for the county in order to standardize an average of county data for the purpose of comparing trends. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Blount County Region County Oneonta Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 Low Sep-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Trend 0.36% -1.26% -0.03% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% -1.86% 1.86% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 21

22 Calhoun County Sales Tax $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $500,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Sales Tax Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Oxford $2,400,905 $2,233,212 $2,117,124 $2,195,725 $2,178,036 $2,392,526 Anniston $1,829,041 $1,468,292 $1,467,666 $1,472,186 $1,415,432 $1,527,836 Jacksonville $506,296 $499,030 $583,593 $593,312 $578,551 $593,252 County $1,343,830 $1,237,680 $1,233,827 $1,234,088 $1,272,654 $1,422,879 Region* $558,034 $527,057 $512,307 $519,658 $542,806 $560,670 Oxford Anniston Jacksonville County Region* Source: ADOR (Jacksonville and Oxford); City of Anniston (Anniston); and RDS (Calhoun County) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. This data does not contain city or other jurisdiction data for the county in order to standardize an average of county data for the purpose of comparing trends. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Calhoun County Region County Anniston Jacksonville Oxford Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Dec-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jul-16 Low Sep-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Trend 0.38% 1.06% -2.84% 3.64% -0.16% Volatility Lower Lower Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% 7.38% 1.87% -0.01% 4.39% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 22

23 Sales Tax $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Cherokee County Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Centre $147,020 $145,174 $135,747 $135,431 $135,361 $138,630 County $474,924 $464,859 $426,056 $441,171 $423,994 $426,500 Region* $558,034 $527,057 $512,307 $519,658 $542,806 $560,670 Sales Tax Centre County Region* Source: RDS (Centre and Cherokee County) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. This data does not contain city or other jurisdiction data for the county in order to standardize an average of county data for the purpose of comparing trends. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Cherokee County Region County Centre Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Jul-16 Jul-16 Low Sep-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Trend 0.36% -2.20% -1.44% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% -1.68% 1.17% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 23

24 City Sales Tax $75,000 $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 Clay County $40,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Ashland $68,581 $62,057 $65,191 $67,373 $64,184 $64,553 Lineville $64,724 $57,974 $55,331 $58,778 $56,519 $57,617 County $119,745 $98,068 $99,996 $115,746 $100,471 $103,994 Region* $558,034 $527,057 $512,307 $519,658 $542,806 $560,670 County & Region Sales Tax Ashland Lineville County Region* Source: ADOR (Ashland) and RDS (Clay County and Lineville) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. This data does not contain city or other jurisdiction data for the county in order to standardize an average of county data for the purpose of comparing trends. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Clay County Region County Ashland Lineville Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Jul-16 Jul-16 Jul-16 Low Sep-16 Aug-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Trend 0.36% -1.38% -0.48% -1.69% Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% -5.21% -2.11% -0.99% Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 24

25 City Sales Tax $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 $25,000 Cleburne County Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Heflin $96,471 $94,974 $98,297 $99,103 $92,900 $98,656 County $124,214 $133,472 $112,840 $126,083 $116,569 $113,015 Region* $558,034 $527,057 $512,307 $519,658 $542,806 $560,670 County & Region Sales Tax Heflin County Region* Source: RDS (Cleburne County and Heflin) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. This data does not contain city or other jurisdiction data for the county in order to standardize an average of county data for the purpose of comparing trends. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Cleburne County Region County Heflin Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Low Sep-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Trend 0.36% -2.17% 0.15% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% -5.32% -0.23% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 25

26 DeKalb County Sales Tax - Other Entities $900,000 $25,500 $750,000 $21,250 $600,000 $17,000 $450,000 $12,750 $300,000 $8,500 $150,000 $4,250 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Sales Tax - Mentone Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Fort Payne $749,386 $707,679 $678,149 $711,597 $721,819 $739,537 Mentone $13,348 $13,818 $8,232 $7,978 $10,565 $7,500 County $539,979 $504,459 $507,272 $526,658 $493,014 $792,233 Region* $558,034 $527,057 $512,307 $519,658 $542,806 $560,670 Fort Payne Mentone County Region* Source: ADOR (Fort Payne); DeKalb County (DeKalb); and RDS (Mentone) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. This data does not contain city or other jurisdiction data for the county in order to standardize an average of county data for the purpose of comparing trends. Other Entities consist of Fort Payne, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax DeKalb County Region County Fort Payne Mentone Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Dec-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Low Sep-16 Nov-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Trend 0.36% 5.53% 0.12% % Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Higher Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% 22.65% 1.94% -3.04% Volatility Lower Higher Lower Higher Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 26

27 Etowah County Sales Tax - Gadsden $2,500,000 $1,750,000 $2,000,000 $1,400,000 $1,500,000 $1,050,000 $1,000,000 $700,000 $500,000 $350,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Sales Tax - Other Entities Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Gadsden $2,093,538 $1,936,490 $1,937,919 $1,908,798 $1,979,275 $2,044,092 Rainbow City $407,969 $382,646 $359,038 $385,816 $385,353 $430,859 Glencoe $63,594 $72,679 $90,251 $83,143 $70,371 $81,003 County $849,453 $782,597 $788,954 $780,003 $792,758 $823,969 Region* $558,034 $527,057 $512,307 $519,658 $542,806 $560,670 Gadsden Rainbow City Glencoe County Region* Source: ADOR (Rainbow City); City of Glencoe (Glencoe); and RDS (Etowah County and Gadsden) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. This data does not contain city or other jurisdiction data for the county in order to standardize an average of county data for the purpose of comparing trends. Other Entities consist of Glencoe, Rainbow City, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Etowah County Region County Gadsden Glencoe Rainbow City Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Jul-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Low Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Trend 0.36% -0.36% -0.20% 2.99% 1.05% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% 2.78% 3.48% -1.29% 5.68% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 27

28 Marshall County Sales Tax $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $800,000 $600,000 $600,000 $400,000 $400,000 $200,000 $200,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Sales Tax Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Guntersville $1,035,522 $1,022,079 $919,054 $954,143 $939,070 $1,089,073 Albertville $806,081 $796,887 $802,421 $806,199 $786,991 $803,494 County $107,200 $103,244 $104,221 $106,077 $94,724 $95,473 Region* $558,034 $527,057 $512,307 $519,658 $542,806 $560,670 Guntersville Albertville County Region* Source: RDS (Albertville, Guntersville, and Marshall County) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. This data does not contain city or other jurisdiction data for the county in order to standardize an average of county data for the purpose of comparing trends. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Marshall County Region County Albertville Guntersville Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Low Sep-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Sep-16 Trend 0.36% -2.32% -0.14% 0.10% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% -5.13% -0.17% 6.84% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 28

29 Randolph County City Sales Tax $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Roanoke $237,171 $235,765 $227,184 $233,573 $236,519 $236,108 Wedowee $94,467 $85,268 $85,227 $79,087 $78,059 $77,319 County $314,495 $276,707 $260,632 $243,412 $250,347 $247,415 Region* $558,034 $527,057 $512,307 $519,658 $542,806 $560,670 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 County & Region Sales Tax Roanoke Wedowee County Region* Source: ADOR (Randolph County) and RDS (Roanoke and Wedowee) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. This data does not contain city or other jurisdiction data for the county in order to standardize an average of county data for the purpose of comparing trends. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Randolph County Region County Roanoke Wedowee Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Jul-16 Jul-16 Jul-16 Low Sep-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Trend 0.36% -4.38% 0.04% -3.76% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% 0.82% 0.54% -1.12% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 29

30 St. Clair County Sales Tax - Other Entities $1,750,000 $300,000 $1,500,000 $250,000 $1,250,000 $200,000 $1,000,000 $750,000 $150,000 $500,000 $100,000 $250,000 $50,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Moody Sales Tax Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Pell City $1,299,173 $1,351,782 $1,200,845 $1,286,871 $1,312,160 $1,508,649 Moody $238,236 $225,019 $205,153 $194,487 $245,627 $213,446 County $936,603 $1,009,733 $909,933 $943,520 $937,003 $965,203 Region* $558,034 $527,057 $512,307 $519,658 $542,806 $560,670 Pell City Moody County Region* Source: ADOR (Moody); City of Pell City (Pell City); and St. Clair County (St. Clair) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. This data does not contain city or other jurisdiction data for the county in order to standardize an average of county data for the purpose of comparing trends. Other Entities consist of Pell City, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax St. Clair County Region County Moody Pell City Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Low Sep-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Trend 0.36% -0.11% -0.97% 2.10% Volatility Lower Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% 1.14% 4.76% 8.27% Volatility Lower Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 30

31 Sales Tax $1,250,000 $1,000,000 $750,000 $500,000 $250,000 Talladega County Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 $1,250,000 $1,000,000 $750,000 $500,000 $250,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Talladega $689,309 $676,714 $679,435 $697,270 $650,201 $703,914 Sylacauga $516,257 $501,104 $471,191 $475,909 $508,330 $504,110 Lincoln $270,604 $245,107 $245,997 $255,494 $274,806 $254,235 County $818,732 $695,238 $712,689 $706,741 $1,017,119 $702,079 Region* $558,034 $527,057 $512,307 $519,658 $542,806 $560,670 Sales Tax Talladega Sylacauga Lincoln County Region* Source: ADOR (Lincoln, Sylacauga, and Talladega County) and City of Talladega (Talladega) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. This data does not contain city or other jurisdiction data for the county in order to standardize an average of county data for the purpose of comparing trends. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Talladega County Region County Lincoln Sylacauga Talladega Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 Low Sep-16 Aug-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Trend 0.36% 1.05% 0.20% -0.19% 0.03% Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% -0.33% -0.25% 2.92% 0.48% Volatility Lower Higher Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 31

32 Region & State Region Sales Tax $10,000,000 $8,750,000 $7,500,000 $6,250,000 $5,000,000 $196,000,000 $194,000,000 $192,000,000 $190,000,000 $188,000,000 $186,000,000 $184,000,000 $3,750,000 $182,000,000 $180,000,000 $2,500,000 $178,000,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 State Sales Tax Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Region Sales Tax* $6,138,373 $5,797,626 $5,635,380 $5,716,234 $5,970,866 $6,167,371 State Sales Tax $188,603,896 $182,038,104 $179,262,418 $183,779,648 $179,072,184 $194,370,222 Region Sales Tax* State Sales Tax Source: ADOR; RDS; and Self-Collecting Cities/Counties *Region Sales Tax is a summation of each individual county sales tax collected within the eleven county region. This measure does not contain city or other jurisdictional data for the county. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Region & State Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Dec-16 Dec-16 Low Sep-16 Nov-16 Trend 0.36% 0.36% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 3.87% 2.84% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 32

33 Lodging Tax Lodging tax data are provided and analyzed for a six month reference period of July through December 2016 for each county and selected city(s). Region data are offered relative to each county and as a comparison to state data on the final chart. Lodging tax collection is analyzed as follows: monthly high and low values are identified within the entire six month reference period for the region and each local variable, county and selected city(s) within the county; trend in increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the entire reference period and the most recent three months; and directional changes from prior month to most recent month reported. Trend values reflect rate of change of lodging tax collection within each respective reporting period. Volatility indicates the extent of lodging stability and is expressed as an annualized standard deviation of monthly variances in collection. Higher lodging tax collection volatility denotes a higher variation in the level of lodging activity, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest less fluctuation. Trend values and volatility offer strong measures of relative comparison. The relationship between lodging taxes collected and economic activity is positive; that is, a stronger economy produces a higher need for lodging and thus more taxes are collected. Some counties may have more need for lodging and some less, but the trend within the county reflects the directional strength of the economic activity for that county. A strong basis for including lodging taxes in this publication is as a measure of tourism activity. Seasonal effects will occur with this variable, especially for counties that are destination driven for tourists at various times of the year. Lodging taxes are collected for selected cities within each county of the coverage area (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) and averaged for each county. Region and state cross sectional and time series comparisons provide further insight into relative economic activity. Sources of data are respective county and city administrations in addition to the Alabama Department of Revenue (ADOR) and Revenue Discovery Systems (RDS). Lodging tax data are reported independently for each city, county, and state. Data for each selected city in a county do not reflect all cities within that county, but rather a representative sample. County lodging tax data consist of that portion of lodging taxes remitted to the county, and are not a summation of selected city lodging taxes, but are rather a separate measure of lodging tax revenue. Region lodging taxes represent an average of county lodging taxes within the reference area. We do not include city or other jurisdictional entities in order to standardize an average that would apply to each county in the area of analysis. Our analysis does not include all cities in each county, but rather selected city(s). Therefore, a more accurate depiction of region economic activity is an average of county lodging tax data, which applies to each county. We are reliant upon various sources to supply lodging tax data. There is not a database of current data available to access. There is also a lag associated with payment and reporting of this economic indicator that could affect the availability of the data for some reference months. 33

34 Lodging Tax $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Blount County Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Oneonta $2,201 $2,463 $2,410 $2,228 $2,399 $2,185 County N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Region* $13,252 $13,717 $11,176 $10,012 $14,631 $10,344 Lodging Tax Oneonta County Region* Source: RDS (Blount County and Oneonta) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Blount County Region County Oneonta Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 N/A Aug-16 Low Oct-16 N/A Dec-16 Trend -3.25% N/A -0.55% Volatility Moderate N/A Lower Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% N/A -0.97% Volatility Higher N/A Lower Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Blount County; values expressed as N/A. 34

35 Calhoun County Lodging Tax - Oxford $200,000 $160,000 $120,000 $80,000 $40,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Lodging Tax - Other Entities Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Oxford $111,105 $52,190 $163,685 $104,282 $151,491 $103,704 Anniston $9,754 $9,232 $7,622 $8,501 $15,641 $12,852 Jacksonville $9,352 $9,137 $7,953 $8,724 $11,115 $6,958 County $21,999 $23,577 $19,241 $17,717 $34,471 $20,160 Region* $13,252 $13,717 $11,176 $10,012 $14,631 $10,344 Oxford Anniston Jacksonville County Region* Source: ADOR (Jacksonville and Oxford); City of Anniston (Anniston); and RDS (Calhoun County) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Other Entities consist of Anniston, Jacksonville, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Calhoun County Region County Anniston Jacksonville Oxford Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Sep-16 Low Oct-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Aug-16 Trend -3.25% 1.22% 7.41% -2.33% 3.87% Volatility Moderate Higher Higher Moderate Higher Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% 6.67% 22.95% % -0.28% Volatility Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 35

36 Cherokee County Lodging Tax $16,000 $16,000 $14,000 $14,000 $12,000 $12,000 $10,000 $10,000 $8,000 $8,000 $6,000 $6,000 $4,000 $4,000 $2,000 $2,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Lodging Tax Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Centre $1,090 $717 $834 $857 $990 $781 County $12,992 $14,997 $7,558 $6,468 $6,481 $4,471 Region* $13,252 $13,717 $11,176 $10,012 $14,631 $10,344 Centre County Region* Source: RDS (Centre and Cherokee County) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Cherokee County Region County Centre Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 Aug-16 Jul-16 Low Oct-16 Dec-16 Aug-16 Trend -3.25% % -1.91% Volatility Moderate Higher Moderate Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% % -4.57% Volatility Higher Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 36

37 Clay County City Lodging Tax $150 $17,500 $125 $15,000 $100 $12,500 $75 $10,000 $7,500 $50 $5,000 $25 $2,500 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 County & Region Lodging Tax Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Ashland N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Lineville $126 County N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Region* $13,252 $13,717 $11,176 $10,012 $14,631 $10,344 Ashland Lineville County Region* Source: ADOR (Ashland) and RDS (Clay County and Lineville) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Ashland and Clay County do not collect lodging tax. Values are represented as N/A. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Clay County Region County Ashland Lineville Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 N/A N/A Oct-16 Low Oct-16 N/A N/A Jul-16 Trend -3.25% N/A N/A N/A Volatility Moderate N/A N/A N/A Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% N/A N/A N/A Volatility Higher N/A N/A N/A Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 N/A N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Ashland and Clay County; values expressed as N/A. Irregular data collection for Lineville are represented as N/A. 37

38 Cleburne County City Lodging Tax $1,200 $16,000 $1,050 $14,000 $900 $12,000 $750 $10,000 $600 $8,000 $450 $6,000 $300 $4,000 $150 $2,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 County & Region Lodging Tax Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Heflin $564 $584 $527 $479 $752 $624 County $5,640 $6,442 $5,820 $4,544 $8,724 $8,330 Region* $13,252 $13,717 $11,176 $10,012 $14,631 $10,344 Heflin County Region* Source: RDS (Cleburne County and Heflin) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Cleburne County Region County Heflin Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Low Oct-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Trend -3.25% 7.75% 3.42% Volatility Moderate Higher Moderate Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% 35.39% 14.21% Volatility Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 38

39 DeKalb County Lodging Tax $52,500 $45,000 $37,500 $30,000 $22,500 $15,000 $7,500 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 $52,500 $45,000 $37,500 $30,000 $22,500 $15,000 $7,500 Lodging Tax Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Fort Payne $45,426 $46,319 $39,011 $29,188 $48,992 $37,239 Mentone $1,449 $1,849 $1,330 $1,312 $2,319 $1,920 County $4,170 $4,396 $3,622 $2,927 $4,746 $3,636 Region* $13,252 $13,717 $11,176 $10,012 $14,631 $10,344 Fort Payne Mentone County Region* Source: ADOR (Fort Payne); DeKalb County (DeKalb); and RDS (Mentone) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax DeKalb County Region County Fort Payne Mentone Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Low Oct-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Trend -3.25% -1.89% -3.14% 6.10% Volatility Moderate Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% 11.45% 12.95% 20.96% Volatility Higher Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 39

40 Etowah County Lodging Tax $90,000 $90,000 $75,000 $75,000 $60,000 $60,000 $45,000 $45,000 $30,000 $30,000 $15,000 $15,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Lodging Tax Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Gadsden $56,497 $69,181 $61,562 $55,193 $68,740 $44,972 Rainbow City N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Glencoe N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A County $27,697 $29,093 $26,140 $23,166 $29,115 $19,020 Region* $13,252 $13,717 $11,176 $10,012 $14,631 $10,344 Gadsden Rainbow City Glencoe County Region* Source: ADOR (Rainbow City); City of Glencoe (Glencoe); and RDS (Etowah County and Gadsden) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Glencoe and Rainbow City do not collect lodging tax. Values are represented as N/A. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Etowah County Region County Gadsden Glencoe Rainbow City Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 Nov-16 Aug-16 N/A N/A Low Oct-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 N/A N/A Trend -3.25% -5.55% -3.56% N/A N/A Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A N/A Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% -9.39% -9.73% N/A N/A Volatility Higher Higher Higher N/A N/A Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 N/A N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Glencoe and Rainbow City; values expressed as N/A. 40

41 Marshall County Lodging Tax - Guntersville $75,000 $17,500 $60,000 $14,000 $45,000 $10,500 $30,000 $7,000 $15,000 $3,500 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Lodging Tax - Other Entities Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Guntersville $61,914 $65,453 $49,903 $49,913 $65,593 $41,909 Albertville $9,603 $10,986 $9,239 $8,862 $8,939 $8,053 County $13,690 $15,560 $12,027 $11,019 $14,845 $10,625 Region* $13,252 $13,717 $11,176 $10,012 $14,631 $10,344 Guntersville Albertville County Region* Source: RDS (Albertville, Guntersville, and Marshall County) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Other Entities consist of Albertville, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Marshall County Region County Albertville Guntersville Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 Aug-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Low Oct-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Trend -3.25% -4.18% -4.31% -5.40% Volatility Moderate Moderate Lower Moderate Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% -1.80% -4.67% -8.37% Volatility Higher Higher Lower Higher Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 41

42 Lodging Tax $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Randolph County Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Roanoke $3,943 $3,768 $3,701 $3,823 $4,450 $3,569 Wedowee N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A County $2,768 $3,085 $2,530 $2,468 $2,805 $2,298 Region* $13,252 $13,717 $11,176 $10,012 $14,631 $10,344 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Lodging Tax Roanoke Wedowee County Region* Source: ADOR (Randolph County) and RDS (Roanoke and Wedowee) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Wedowee does not collect lodging tax. Values are represented as N/A. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Randolph County Region County Roanoke Wedowee Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 N/A Low Oct-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 N/A Trend -3.25% -3.48% 0.10% N/A Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% -3.51% -3.38% N/A Volatility Higher Moderate Moderate N/A Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Wedowee; values expressed as N/A. 42

43 St. Clair County Lodging Tax $30,000 $24,000 $18,000 $12,000 $6,000 $30,000 $24,000 $18,000 $12,000 $6,000 Lodging Tax Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Pell City $25,684 $26,851 $18,954 $28,208 $15,055 $14,892 Moody $11,031 $10,160 $10,195 $11,420 $8,753 $7,698 County $16,842 $10,167 $11,983 $8,376 $10,969 $12,092 Region* $13,252 $13,717 $11,176 $10,012 $14,631 $10,344 Pell City Moody County Region* Source: ADOR (Moody); City of Pell City (Pell City); and St. Clair County (St. Clair) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Other Entities consist of Pell City, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax St. Clair County Region County Moody Pell City Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Low Oct-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Trend -3.25% -4.98% -5.91% % Volatility Moderate Higher Moderate Higher Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% 20.15% % % Volatility Higher Higher Moderate Higher Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 43

44 Talladega County Lodging Tax $30,000 $30,000 $25,000 $25,000 $20,000 $20,000 $15,000 $15,000 $10,000 $10,000 $5,000 $5,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Lodging Tax Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Sylacauga $12,397 $29,037 $15,042 $5,670 $26,972 $15,675 Talladega $13,790 $12,575 $10,797 $11,941 $19,917 $13,518 Lincoln $8,751 $12,228 $7,182 $7,613 $13,961 $2,057 County $13,467 $16,141 $11,660 $13,421 $19,520 $12,460 Region* $13,252 $13,717 $11,176 $10,012 $14,631 $10,344 Sylacauga Talladega Lincoln County Region* Source: ADOR (Lincoln, Sylacauga, and Talladega County) and City of Talladega (Talladega) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Talladega County Region County Lincoln Sylacauga Talladega Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Low Oct-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Oct-16 Sep-16 Trend -3.25% 0.92% % -0.07% 4.02% Volatility Moderate Higher Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% -3.65% % 66.27% 6.40% Volatility Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 44

45 Region & State Region Lodging Tax $140,000 $125,000 $110,000 $95,000 $80,000 $65,000 $10,000,000 $9,000,000 $8,000,000 $7,000,000 $6,000,000 $5,000,000 State Lodging Tax $50,000 $4,000,000 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Region Lodging Tax* $119,265 $123,457 $100,581 $90,107 $131,675 $93,093 State Lodging Tax $8,141,519 $9,069,019 $5,622,116 $5,159,215 $5,624,265 $4,072,314 Region Lodging Tax* State Lodging Tax Source: ADOR; RDS; and Self-Collecting Cities/Counties *Region data represent lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. This measure does not contain city or other jurisdictional data for the county. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Region & State Region State Reference Period: Jul 16 - Dec 16 High Nov-16 Aug-16 Low Oct-16 Dec-16 Trend -3.25% % Volatility Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Oct 16 - Dec 16 Trend 1.64% % Volatility Higher Moderate Reference Period: Nov 16 - Dec 16 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to 100 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 40 percent. 45

46 Housing- Average Home Price For the reference period of March through August 2017, this analysis considers the average home price by county (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) in relation to the region average consisting of each county, and the number of homes for sale. Comparison within these three categories offers insight into the relative strength of the housing market on the local level compared to the state. Average home price by county and region and number of homes for sale are analyzed as follows: monthly high and low values are identified within the entire six month reference period; trend increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the entire reference period and the most recent three months; directional changes from prior month to most recent month reported; and home price averages by county and region for the most recent month of the reporting period, including the number of homes for sale. Trend values reflect rate of change within each respective reporting period. Volatility indicates the extent that home prices and number for sale are relatively stable and is expressed as an annualized standard deviation of monthly variances. Higher home price volatility denotes a higher variation in pricing as a result of market conditions, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest less fluctuation. Trend values and volatility offer strong measures of relative comparison. Higher average home prices are positively related to economic conditions for that geographic area. Higher demand for housing typically reflects a stronger labor market and general economic conditions and has an upward push on home prices. Supply of homes will usually increase under these conditions and have some effect on limiting home price increases. The number of houses for sale is also included in the analysis. Higher numbers of houses for sale (both new and existing homes) are generally inversely related to housing market and economic conditions, especially if the trend in sold prices is negative. The housing sector of the economy is an important barometer of economic conditions. Owning a home has traditionally been a personal goal for most Americans and represents a component of personal economic success. Economic conditions within communities are a driver of supply and demand within the housing market. Home value may be measured by average home prices or average sales prices. The former represents the market value of existing homes, while the latter indicates average price received for recently sold new or existing homes. Slower economic conditions dampen demand for homes and inventory of homes for sale builds as less demand for housing manifests. A higher inventory of houses for sale suggests that home prices are either too high, employee migration into or away from an area has slowed, or demand has otherwise decreased. The variable may also reflect a higher supply of homes by investors, but this effect would tend to be smaller than demand for housing. 46

47 Average Home Price (AHP) $120,000 $115,000 $110,000 $105,000 $100,000 $95,000 $90,000 $85,000 $80,000 Blount County Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Blount County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Blount County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Jun-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Low Apr-17 Mar-17 May-17 Trend 0.98% 3.94% 0.25% Volatility Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend -2.22% 2.46% -0.65% Volatility Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 109, $ 97,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 47

48 Average Home Price (AHP) $105,000 $100,000 $95,000 $90,000 $85,000 $80,000 $75,000 $70,000 Calhoun County Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Calhoun County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Calhoun County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Jul-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Low Mar-17 May-17 May-17 Trend 1.18% 0.16% 0.25% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 1.71% -0.46% -0.65% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 90, $ 97,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 48

49 Average Home Price (AHP) $101,000 $99,000 $97,000 $95,000 $93,000 $91,000 $89,000 $87,000 $85,000 Cherokee County Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Cherokee County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Cherokee County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 Low Aug-17 Mar-17 May-17 Trend -2.18% 1.41% 0.25% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend -4.91% -2.11% -0.65% Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 85, $ 97,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 49

50 Clay County Average Home Price (AHP) $100,000 $95,000 $90,000 $85,000 $80,000 $75,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug # For Sale in County Clay County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Clay County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Mar-17 Mar-17 Jun-17 Low May-17 Jul-17 May-17 Trend -0.15% -4.41% 0.25% Volatility Higher Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 8.40% -3.66% -0.65% Volatility Higher Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 94, $ 97,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 50

51 Average Home Price (AHP) $105,000 $100,000 $95,000 $90,000 $85,000 $80,000 $75,000 $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 Cleburne County Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Cleburne County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Cleburne County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Mar-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Low May-17 Mar-17 May-17 Trend -0.51% 2.83% 0.25% Volatility Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 2.63% 2.77% -0.65% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 79, $ 97,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 51

52 DeKalb County Average Home Price (AHP) $100,000 $96,000 $92,000 $88,000 $84, # For Sale in County $80,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 DeKalb County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County 580 Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) DeKalb County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Apr-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Low Jun-17 Apr-17 May-17 Trend 0.10% 3.23% 0.25% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 1.13% 3.31% -0.65% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 90, $ 97,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 52

53 Etowah County Average Home Price (AHP) $118,000 $115,000 $112,000 $109,000 $106,000 $103,000 $100,000 $97,000 $94,000 $91,000 $88,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 1,080 1,060 1,040 1,020 1, # For Sale in County Etowah County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Etowah County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Jul-17 May-17 Jun-17 Low Aug-17 Aug-17 May-17 Trend 0.41% -0.09% 0.25% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend -3.60% -1.98% -0.65% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 105, $ 97,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 53

54 Marshall County Average Home Price (AHP) $101,250 $97,500 $93,750 $90,000 $86,250 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, # For Sale in County $82,500 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug Marshall County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Marshall County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Jun-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Low Mar-17 Mar-17 May-17 Trend 1.74% 0.45% 0.25% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend -1.53% -2.32% -0.65% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 96,000 1,207 $ 97,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 54

55 Randolph County Average Home Price (AHP) $100,000 $98,000 $96,000 $94,000 $92,000 $90, # For Sale in County $88,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Randolph County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County 820 Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Randolph County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Jun-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 Low Mar-17 Mar-17 May-17 Trend 1.49% 1.34% 0.25% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% -0.22% -0.65% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 99, $ 97,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 55

56 Average Home Price (AHP) $145,000 $137,500 $130,000 $122,500 $115,000 $107,500 $100,000 $92,500 $85,000 St. Clair County Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 St. Clair County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County 1,160 1,120 1,080 1,040 1,000 # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) St. Clair County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Aug-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Low May-17 Apr-17 May-17 Trend 0.82% 0.90% 0.25% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.72% -0.63% -0.65% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 140,000 1,106 $ 97,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 56

57 Average Home Prices (AHP) $105,000 $100,000 $95,000 $90,000 $85,000 $80,000 $75,000 $70,000 $65,000 Talladega County Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Talladega County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Talladega County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Apr-17 Aug-17 Jun-17 Low Aug-17 Apr-17 May-17 Trend -1.60% 12.77% 0.25% Volatility Higher Higher Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend -7.34% 1.69% -0.65% Volatility Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 85, $ 97,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 57

58 Average Home Price (AHP) $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 Region Average vs. State Average Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Region AHP* State AHP Average # For Sale in Region Average # For Sale in Region Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region that is compared in this analysis to state average. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Region vs. State Region AHP # For Sale State AHP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Jun-17 Jul-17 Jun-17 Low May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Trend 0.25% 1.85% 0.85% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend -0.65% -0.35% -1.40% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 97, $ 140,000 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 58

59 Housing- Average Sold Price For the reference period of March through August 2017, this housing analysis considers the average sold price by county (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) in relation to the region average consisting of each county. Comparison offers insight into the relative strength of the housing market on the local level compared to the state. Average sold price by county and region is analyzed as follows: monthly high and low values are identified within the entire six month reference period; trend increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the entire reference period and the most recent three months; directional changes from prior month to most recent month reported; and sold price averages by county and region for the most recent month of the reporting period. Trend values reflect rate of change within each respective reporting period. Volatility indicates the extent that average sold prices of homes are relatively stable and is expressed as an annualized standard deviation of monthly variances. Higher average sold price volatility denotes a higher variation in pricing as a result of market conditions, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest less fluctuation. Home value may be measured by average home price or average sold price. The former represents the market value of existing homes, while the latter indicates average price received for recently sold new or existing homes. The housing sector of the economy is an important barometer of economic conditions. Owning a home has traditionally been a personal goal for most Americans and represents a component of personal economic success. Economic conditions within communities are a driver of supply and demand within the housing market and reflect that to the extent that individuals are entering or leaving an area, or from existing residents seeking another home that is typically of greater value. Higher average sold prices are positively related to economic conditions for that geographic area. Higher demand for housing typically reflects a stronger labor market and general economic conditions and has an upward push on home prices. Supply of homes will usually also increase under these conditions as more listings for sale have some effect on limiting home price increases. Increases in average sold prices parallel a stronger economy and more demand for housing in that geographic area. If average sold prices are decreasing, conversely, this suggests that sellers are reducing prices to sell the home or that tepid housing market conditions reflect weak demand. Considering changes in housing data within three distinct reference periods of six months, three months, and one month isolates various points in time that might otherwise lead to erroneous conclusions because of seasonal variations. While both the trend changes in average sold price and volatility of those prices support housing market strength or weakness, relative comparisons must consider the size of the base from which the averages are generated. Data are not available for the number of houses sold, but a more vibrant housing market is positively correlated with higher levels of analysis validity. 59

60 Average Sold Price (ASP) $135,000 $130,000 $125,000 $120,000 $115,000 $110,000 $105,000 $100,000 $95,000 $90,000 Blount County Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Blount County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Blount County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Aug-17 Aug-17 Low Mar-17 Apr-17 Trend 2.92% 2.43% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 4.08% 0.61% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 130,000 $ 112,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 60

61 Calhoun County $120,000 Average Sold Price (ASP) $105,000 $90,000 $75,000 $60,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Calhoun County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Calhoun County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Aug-17 Aug-17 Low Mar-17 Apr-17 Trend 0.84% 2.43% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 2.47% 0.61% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 105,000 $ 112,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 61

62 Cherokee County $140,000 Average Sold Price (ASP) $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Cherokee County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Cherokee County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Aug-17 Aug-17 Low Apr-17 Apr-17 Trend 13.13% 2.43% Volatility Higher Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 2.19% 0.61% Volatility Higher Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 118,000 $ 112,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 62

63 Average Sold Price (ASP) $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 Clay County Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Clay County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Clay County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Jun-17 Aug-17 Low Mar-17 Apr-17 Trend 1.23% 2.43% Volatility Moderate Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend -4.94% 0.61% Volatility Higher Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 75,000 $ 112,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 63

64 Cleburne County $135,000 Average Sold Price (ASP) $125,000 $115,000 $105,000 $95,000 $85,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Cleburne County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Cleburne County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 Aug-17 Low Aug-17 Apr-17 Trend -0.76% 2.43% Volatility Moderate Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend -5.39% 0.61% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 111,000 $ 112,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 64

65 DeKalb County Average Sold Price (ASP) $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 DeKalb County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Data for March - May 2017 reflect an average sold price of $41,000 for home(s) that sold in DeKalb County; data not available for June With limited data availability across the reference periods, monthly county averages may be subject to high volatility. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) DeKalb County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Jul-17 Aug-17 Low Mar-17 Apr-17 Trend N/A 2.43% Volatility N/A Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend N/A 0.61% Volatility N/A Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 90,000 $ 112,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. Data for September through November 2016 are suspected outliers; thus, county data trends are not meaningful. 65

66 Etowah County $170,000 Average Sold Price (ASP) $155,000 $140,000 $125,000 $110,000 $95,000 $80,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Etowah County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Etowah County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Mar-17 Aug-17 Low Jun-17 Apr-17 Trend -4.30% 2.43% Volatility Higher Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 8.21% 0.61% Volatility Higher Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 137,000 $ 112,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 66

67 Marshall County $117,500 Average Sold Price (ASP) $110,000 $102,500 $95,000 $87,500 $80,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Marshall County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Marshall County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Mar-17 Aug-17 Low Aug-17 Apr-17 Trend -1.97% 2.43% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend -2.82% 0.61% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 85,000 $ 112,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 67

68 Average Sold Price (ASP) $130,000 $125,000 $120,000 $115,000 $110,000 $105,000 $100,000 $95,000 $90,000 $85,000 Randolph County Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Randolph County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Randolph County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Aug-17 Aug-17 Low Jun-17 Apr-17 Trend 4.15% 2.43% Volatility Higher Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 15.17% 0.61% Volatility Higher Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 126,000 $ 112,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 68

69 St. Clair County $160,000 Average Sold Price (ASP) $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 St. Clair County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) St. Clair County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Jul-17 Aug-17 Low Mar-17 Apr-17 Trend 0.88% 2.43% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.32% 0.61% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 155,000 $ 112,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 69

70 Talladega County Average Sold Price (ASP) $120,000 $115,000 $110,000 $105,000 $100,000 $95,000 $90,000 $85,000 $80,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Talladega County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Talladega County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Mar-17 Aug-17 Low Apr-17 Apr-17 Trend -0.36% 2.43% Volatility Higher Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend -4.45% 0.61% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 105,000 $ 112,455 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 70

71 Region Average vs. State Average 165, ,000 Average Sold Price (ASP) 145, , , , ,000 95,000 85,000 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Region ASP* State ASP Source: *Region Average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region that is compared to the state average sold price in this analysis. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Region vs. State Region ASP State ASP Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High Aug-17 Jun-17 Low Apr-17 Mar-17 Trend 2.43% 0.81% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.61% 0.00% Volatility Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Values $ 112,455 $ 155,000 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 71

72 Gasoline- Average Sales Price The reference period for this analysis is March through August This analysis considers the price per gallon of regular, unleaded gasoline. Within the listed county (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) are selected cities (Blount Oneonta; Calhoun Anniston, Jacksonville, and Oxford; Cherokee Centre; Clay Ashville and Lineville; Cleburne Heflin; DeKalb Fort Payne and Mentone; Etowah Gadsden, Glencoe, and Rainbow City; Marshall Albertville and Guntersville; Randolph Roanoke and Wedowee; St. Clair Moody and Pell City; Talladega Lincoln, Sylacauga, and Talladega) chosen with data available for analysis. County trends are compared to region trends in measuring relative economic strength. Gasoline price trends are further considered as follows for each county, selected city(s) within that county, and region: monthly high and low values, trends, and volatility are identified within the entire reference period; most recent three month trend of increases or decreases in price and volatility; directional change representing an increase or decrease in price from prior month to most recent month reported for each jurisdiction; and directional movement of local, county and selected city(s) prices, relative to region gasoline prices in the most recent month reported. While gasoline price trends often parallel across geographic categories, price volatility differences exist. A measure of volatility captures to what extent price variability exists as a relative measure of the consistency of price levels across time periods. Higher volatility denotes less price consistency, while moderate and lower volatility levels reflect a greater level of price consistency. By depicting trend analysis along three different reference periods for each variable not only are relative comparisons available, but also how that trend is changing at different points in time. In the region versus state tab on the gasoline price analysis we include national gasoline averages in addition to state and region in an attempt to further define price and price movements for this commodity. Volatility is relatively low between and among geographic areas in the region and state, but frequently does not closely correlate when considered relative to national averages. Gasoline pricing is an economic indicator to which almost everyone can relate. The price of gasoline affects an economy in one of two ways: (1) as a cost to consumers who spend primarily for automobile gasoline for transportation and (2) as a cost to suppliers and producers as a cost of operating a business. Higher prices for gasoline, all else being equal, represent a reduction in consumer purchasing power, and thus represent less money available for expenditure on other goods and services. Suppliers and producers are faced with higher production costs if gasoline prices rise. These costs are sometimes absorbed, but are often passed to consumers in the manner of a fuel surcharge. 72

73 Blount County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 Price / Gallon (Regular) $1.80 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Oneonta $2.11 $2.12 $2.18 $2.09 $2.01 $2.08 County $2.11 $2.12 $2.18 $2.09 $2.01 $2.08 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 $1.80 Oneonta County Region Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Blount County Region County Oneonta Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 May-17 May-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -0.73% -0.73% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% -0.05% -0.05% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 73

74 Calhoun County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Anniston $2.03 $2.10 $2.13 $2.05 $1.93 $2.08 Jacksonville $2.03 $2.05 $2.04 $2.01 $1.88 $2.05 Oxford $2.03 $2.11 $2.15 $2.05 $1.93 $2.09 County $2.03 $2.09 $2.11 $2.04 $1.91 $2.07 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 Price / Gallon (Regular) Anniston Jacksonville Oxford County Region Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Calhoun County Region County Anniston Jacksonville Oxford Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 May-17 May-17 Apr-17 May-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -0.56% -0.47% -0.68% -0.49% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% 0.84% 0.83% 1.07% 0.80% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 74

75 Price / Gallon (Regular) Cherokee County $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Centre $1.99 $2.02 $2.09 $2.01 $1.88 $2.00 County $1.99 $2.02 $2.09 $2.01 $1.88 $2.00 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 Centre County Region $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Cherokee County Region County Centre Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 May-17 May-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -0.73% -0.73% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% -0.37% -0.37% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 75

76 Clay County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 $1.65 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Ashland $2.10 $2.16 $2.14 $2.10 $1.70 $2.08 Lineville $2.08 $2.16 $2.09 $2.10 $1.96 $2.10 County $2.09 $2.16 $2.11 $2.10 $1.83 $2.09 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 Ashland Lineville County Region $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 $1.65 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Clay County Region County Ashland Lineville Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -1.46% -2.24% -0.71% Volatility Lower Moderate Higher Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% -0.24% -0.48% 0.00% Volatility Lower Higher Higher Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 76

77 Cleburne County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Heflin $2.10 $2.15 $2.20 $2.12 $2.00 $2.16 County $2.10 $2.15 $2.20 $2.12 $2.00 $2.16 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 Heflin County Region $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Cleburne County Region County Heflin Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 May-17 May-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -0.35% -0.35% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% 0.89% 0.89% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 77

78 DeKalb County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Fort Payne $2.04 $2.17 $2.10 $2.04 $1.86 $2.07 Mentone $2.15 $2.14 $2.23 $2.18 $2.03 $2.18 County $2.09 $2.16 $2.17 $2.11 $1.95 $2.13 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 Fort Payne Mentone County Region $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary DeKalb County Region County Fort Payne Mentone Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 May-17 Apr-17 May-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -0.71% -1.15% -0.29% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% 0.38% 0.66% 0.11% Volatility Lower Moderate Moderate Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 78

79 Etowah County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 $1.65 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Gadsden $2.01 $2.07 $2.15 $2.02 $1.90 $2.07 Glencoe $2.01 $2.06 $2.14 $2.02 $1.90 $2.07 Rainbow City $2.01 $2.07 $2.15 $2.03 $1.90 $2.07 County $2.01 $2.07 $2.15 $2.02 $1.90 $2.07 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 $1.65 Price / Gallon (Regular) Gadsden Glencoe Rainbow City County Region Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Etowah County Region County Gadsden Glencoe Rainbow City Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 May-17 May-17 May-17 May-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -0.45% -0.45% -0.39% -0.51% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% 1.13% 1.15% 1.18% 1.06% Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Lower Moderate Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 79

80 Marshall County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 $1.70 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Albertville $2.04 $2.12 $2.14 $2.05 $1.93 $2.08 Guntersville $2.04 $2.10 $2.15 $2.08 $1.93 $2.13 County $2.04 $2.11 $2.11 $2.07 $1.93 $2.09 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 $1.70 Price / Gallon (Regular) Albertville Guntersville County Region Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Marshall County Region County Albertville Guntersville Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 Apr-17 May-17 May-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -0.52% -0.63% -0.22% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% 0.39% 0.75% 1.10% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Moderate Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 80

81 Randolph County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 $1.65 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Roanoke $2.07 $2.09 $2.18 $2.04 $1.96 $2.02 Wedowee $2.11 $2.11 $2.17 $2.14 $2.03 $2.13 County $2.09 $2.10 $2.17 $2.09 $2.00 $2.07 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 Roanoke Wedowee County Region $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 $1.65 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Randolph County Region County Roanoke Wedowee Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 May-17 May-17 May-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -0.68% -1.10% -0.21% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% -0.41% -0.44% -0.19% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 81

82 Price / Gallon (Regular) St. Clair County $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 $1.65 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Moody $1.99 $2.11 $2.08 $2.03 $1.87 $2.09 Pell City $2.09 $2.13 $2.17 $2.08 $1.95 $2.10 County $2.04 $2.12 $2.12 $2.05 $1.91 $2.10 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 Moody Pell City County Region $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 $1.65 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary St. Clair County Region County Moody Pell City Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 May-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -0.59% -0.40% -0.75% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% 1.03% 1.52% 0.55% Volatility Lower Moderate Moderate Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 82

83 Talladega County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 $2.25 $2.15 $2.05 $1.95 $1.85 $1.75 Price / Gallon (Regular) $1.65 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Lincoln $2.00 $2.09 $2.11 $2.05 $1.89 $2.01 Sylacauga $2.09 $2.13 $2.18 $2.14 $1.99 $2.10 Talladega $2.08 $2.12 $2.16 $2.10 $1.98 $2.07 County $2.05 $2.12 $2.15 $2.10 $1.95 $2.06 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 $1.65 Lincoln Sylacauga Talladega County Region Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Talladega County Region County Lincoln Sylacauga Talladega Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 May-17 May-17 May-17 May-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -0.73% -0.89% -0.57% -0.74% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% -0.94% -1.05% -1.01% -0.76% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 83

84 Region & State Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 $1.70 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Region $2.06 $2.11 $2.14 $2.07 $1.93 $2.07 State $2.07 $2.12 $2.16 $2.09 $1.96 $2.10 Nation $2.31 $2.37 $2.39 $2.38 $2.23 $2.36 Region State Nation $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 $1.70 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Region, State, & Nation Region State Nation Reference Period: Mar 17 - Aug 17 High May-17 May-17 May-17 Low Jul-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Trend -0.78% -0.53% -0.24% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jun 17 - Aug 17 Trend 0.00% 0.34% -0.34% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Jul 17 - Aug 17 Reference Period: Aug 17 Region and State to Nation N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to nation analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in the eleven county region, as well as the State of Alabama, to an average price in the nation. Considering the region or state relative to a nation average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the region or state relative to the nation average, a down arrow indicates that the local (region and state) price is lower than the nation average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 84

85 Seasonal Feature Summary of Deposits Financial institution deposits are an economic indicator of the health of business activity, economic vitality, and household wealth within a geographic area. Holding all other variables constant, higher levels of deposits in financial institutions generally reflect a stronger economy as businesses and households seek a repository for earnings and income. Deposits are denoted as funds deposited into FDIC insured financial institutions and are considered annually. The data are accessed from over a time period of 2007 to 2016 for each dataset in this analysis. The following analysis provides an overview of deposits in Alabama relative to contiguous states Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The data are shown as annual percent change in deposits within each state as a means of comparison across the period of time for this review. The dissection further identifies conditions within Alabama and the eleven county region. Trends for each county are tallied and comparisons made to region deposits. Since the financial crisis ended in 2009, increases in deposits in Alabama have lagged other southeastern states, although percent change increases have accelerated for each state as a slow economic expansion continues. Tennessee, Mississippi, and Georgia, respectively, have generally experienced the largest post crisis increases, with stronger relative increases for Alabama and Florida in the most recent years (2015 and 2016) of analysis. A measure of deposits in Alabama is further examined by the region and as the region to the state. Region market share in deposits is defined as the percent of deposits within the eleven counties in the region relative to the state. Region market share has slowly declined from percent in 2007 to 8.60 percent in When considered as a trend, growth in deposits for the state has increased by 2.50 percent from 2007 to 2016 and 3.42 percent from 2012 to 2016, compared to an increase of 0.09 percent and 0.79 percent, respectively, for the region over the same time periods. These increases are particularly encouraging for the region in the most recent years of the analysis, although the levels continue to lag state performance. With this seasonal feature it is important to note that while deposit levels are a function of economic conditions and activities, they are also shaped by the number of FDIC financial institutions within each area identified. The number of institutions in the aggregate has continued to contract and, therefore, may skew interpretation of these results. Increases in state deposits is a positive indicator, but should be considered with caution in comparison to region data. This research does not examine concentration of financial institutions statewide, where such institutions could predominate in counties with major metropolitan centers. 85

86 Percent in Deposits Summary of Deposits (00) Statewide Comparison Alabama Florida Georgia Mississippi Tennessee 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% % Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Company 11.00% 10.50% 10.00% 9.50% 9.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% Region Market Share 7.00% Region 10.73% 10.56% 9.78% 9.93% 9.73% 9.46% 9.35% 8.94% 8.77% 8.60% Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Company 86