ECONOMIC UPDATE. (Northeast Alabama Regional Economic Indicators) March 2019

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1 ECONOMIC UPDATE (Northeast Alabama Regional Economic Indicators) March 2019 Center for Economic Development and Business Research School of Business and Industry Jacksonville State University 700 Pelham Road North Jacksonville, Alabama Phone: Website: jsu.edu/ced 1

2 Table of Contents Introduction: Welcome and Background 5 Contact Information 6 Workforce - Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment 7 Blount County 8 Calhoun County 9 Cherokee County 10 Clay County 11 Cleburne County 12 DeKalb County 13 Etowah County 14 Marshall County 15 Randolph County 16 St. Clair County 17 Talladega County 18 Region Outlook 19 Sales Tax 20 Blount County 21 Calhoun County 22 Cherokee County 23 Clay County 24 Cleburne County 25 DeKalb County 26 Etowah County 27 Marshall County 28 Randolph County 29 St. Clair County 30 Talladega County 31 Region Outlook 32 2

3 Lodging Tax 33 Blount County 34 Calhoun County 35 Cherokee County 36 Clay County 37 Cleburne County 38 DeKalb County 39 Etowah County 40 Marshall County 41 Randolph County 42 St. Clair County 43 Talladega County 44 Region Outlook 45 Housing - Average Home Price 46 Blount County 47 Calhoun County 48 Cherokee County 49 Clay County 50 Cleburne County 51 DeKalb County 52 Etowah County 53 Marshall County 54 Randolph County 55 St. Clair County 56 Talladega County 57 Region Outlook 58 3

4 Housing - Average Sold Price 59 Blount County 60 Calhoun County 61 Cherokee County 62 Clay County 63 Cleburne County 64 DeKalb County 65 Etowah County 66 Marshall County 67 Randolph County 68 St. Clair County 69 Talladega County 70 Region Outlook 71 Gasoline - Average Sales Price 72 Blount County 73 Calhoun County 74 Cherokee County 75 Clay County 76 Cleburne County 77 DeKalb County 78 Etowah County 79 Marshall County 80 Randolph County 81 St. Clair County 82 Talladega County 83 Region Outlook 84 Seasonal Feature Esri Region Outlook 85 4

5 Introduction Welcome to the March 2019 edition of the Jacksonville State University (JSU) Economic Update. Our goal is to be a continual source of county level data for economic developers, government policy makers, and business analysts to consider when evaluating the economic potential of northeast Alabama. Local and regional economic indicators are considered across an eleven-county area and are analyzed within several reference periods. The economic areas examined include civilian labor force and unemployment, sales and lodging taxes, price and sales trends within housing industry, and gasoline price trends. Counties analyzed are Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega. A measure of annualized volatility is included for each economic category. Volatility levels are assigned as higher, moderate, or lower in analyzing data variability. For the reference period of January through December 2018, the civilian labor force expanded at an annualized trend of 0.28 percent in the region and no change for the state. Over twelve months, average unemployment rate was again unchanged at 3.9 percent for both the region and state. Unemployment rate from November to December 2018 increased by 0.10 percent in the region and declined by 0.20 percent statewide. Trends in sales and lodging tax collected are reported for reference period of January through June Sales tax collection increased by 1.65 percent for region and by 3.86 percent for the state in the full reference period, respectively. Collection decreased by 2.30 percent and increased by 3.79 percent, respectively, over the most recent three-month trend measured from April through June Similarly, lodging tax collection increased by percent in the region and by percent for the state, in the full reference period, and increased by 4.10 percent and by percent, respectively, for the most recent three-month trend for each category. Sales and lodging tax collection reflect relatively moderate volatility; each measure of tax collection is highly seasonal and may not reflect year to year trend. For the full reference period trend of September 2018 through February 2019, average home price (AHP) decreased by 2.52 percent for the region but increased by 1.58 percent for the state, while average sold price (ASP) decreased by 1.38 percent in the region. In the December 2018 through February 2019 reference period trend, AHP plummeted by 8.75 percent in the region but expanded by 0.16 percent for the state, while ASP dropped by 4.13 percent in the region. In February 2019 there were 643 homes for sale in the region, an increase of 17 homes since January. For February 2019 AHP was $136,636 for the region and $212,700 for the state, while ASP declined to $133,156 in the region. State ASP data were not available during the reference periods. Gasoline prices are analyzed for county, region, state, and nation. After a downward trend, prices increased slightly from January to February 2019 for each category analyzed. Highest gasoline prices were recorded in October 2018 and lowest prices in January 2019 for each reference period. Sincerely, Benjamin Boozer, Editor 5

6 Dr. Benjamin B. Boozer, Jr., Associate Professor of Finance, Editor Mrs. Amy A. Simon, Research Analyst, Assistant Editor Ms. Jennifer Green, Director, Center for Economic Development and Business Research Dr. William T. Fielding, Dean, School of Business and Industry 6

7 Workforce- Civilian Labor Force and The analysis to follow considers county civilian labor force data and county, region, and state unemployment rates for reference months of January 2018 through December A twelve-month average is also included for each variable. Workforce analysis consists of the civilian labor force measured in relation to the unemployment rate for each county in the coverage area (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties), the region as an average of each county in the coverage area, and for the state overall. An analysis summary considers the twelve months of the reference period and measures the rate of change in the civilian labor force for that geographic area. Positive values indicate an increasing civilian labor force trend within the reference period, while negative values reflect a declining trend. Monthly unemployment volatility for county, region, and state is annualized to reflect standard deviation from an expected value. Unemployment volatility is a relative measure of labor force stability, with values of 1.40 percent to 1.80 less labor market variance. Increases or decreases in each variable considered, civilian labor force and unemployment percent subjectively considered as moderate volatility and values lower than or equal to and higher than or equal to that range indicative of lower and higher levels of volatility, respectively. Lower volatility levels reflect rates, and directional changes for the current reporting month from the prior month are expressed in the analysis. The civilian labor force is the sum of civilian employment and civilian unemployment. These individuals are civilians (not members of the armed services) who are at least sixteen years of age and not institutionalized and are otherwise eligible to work. From the measure of the civilian labor force it is possible to calculate the labor participation rate as the active portion of an economy s labor force that is either working or actively looking for a job. Otherwise that person is not part of the labor force and is neither counted as employed or unemployed. An increasing civilian labor force reflects that more people are entering or re-entering the labor force, an indication of economic strength. County unemployment data are not seasonally adjusted, while State of Alabama data are seasonally adjusted. The major difference is that non-seasonally adjusted data exacerbate seasonal effects. From the information provided it is possible to calculate the employment rate as 100 percent minus the unemployment rate. Thus, if an unemployment rate for an area is 5 percent, for example, 95 percent of the civilian labor force is working. A key concern is that during periods of economic slowdown eligible workers leave the labor force and no longer look for work, thereby reducing the overall rate of labor force participation. Workforce is an economic indicator that shows the degree which workers are participating and to what extent those workers are unable to find employment. Labor force participation rates are positively associated with general economic trends, while the unemployment rate is countercyclical and is inversely associated with economic trends. Higher levels of labor force participation and lower levels of unemployment indicate a stronger economy. Analyzing county data along with the region and state offers relative comparison. 7

8 Blount County Civilian Labor Force 25,400 25,200 25,000 24,800 24,600 24,400 24,200 24,000 23,800 23, % 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 23, % Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Civilian Labor Force Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Blount County, Region, & State Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 24, % 3.9% 3.9% December , % 3.5% 3.8% November , % 3.4% 4.0% October , % 3.8% 4.1% September , % 3.8% 4.1% August , % 3.9% 4.1% July , % 4.3% 4.1% June , % 5.0% 4.1% May , % 3.7% 3.9% April , % 3.5% 3.8% March , % 3.9% 3.8% February , % 4.3% 3.7% January , % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.22% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 8

9 Calhoun County 47, % Civilian Labor Force 47,000 46,500 46,000 45,500 45,000 44, % 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 44, % Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Civilian Labor Force Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Calhoun County, Region, & State Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 46, % 3.9% 3.9% December , % 3.5% 3.8% November , % 3.4% 4.0% October , % 3.8% 4.1% September , % 3.8% 4.1% August , % 3.9% 4.1% July , % 4.3% 4.1% June , % 5.0% 4.1% May , % 3.7% 3.9% April , % 3.5% 3.8% March , % 3.9% 3.8% February , % 4.3% 3.7% January , % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.15% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Moderate Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 9

10 Cherokee County 11, % Civilian Labor Force 11,600 11,400 11,200 11,000 10,800 10, % 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 10, % Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Civilian Labor Force Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Cherokee County, Region, & State Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 11, % 3.9% 3.9% December , % 3.5% 3.8% November , % 3.4% 4.0% October , % 3.8% 4.1% September , % 3.8% 4.1% August , % 3.9% 4.1% July , % 4.3% 4.1% June , % 5.0% 4.1% May , % 3.7% 3.9% April , % 3.5% 3.8% March , % 3.9% 3.8% February , % 4.3% 3.7% January , % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.52% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Moderate Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 10

11 Clay County Civilian Labor Force 6,200 6,100 6,000 5,900 5,800 5,700 5,600 5,500 5, % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 5, % Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Civilian Labor Force Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Clay County, Region, & State Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 5, % 3.9% 3.9% December , % 3.5% 3.8% November , % 3.4% 4.0% October , % 3.8% 4.1% September , % 3.8% 4.1% August , % 3.9% 4.1% July , % 4.3% 4.1% June , % 5.0% 4.1% May , % 3.7% 3.9% April , % 3.5% 3.8% March , % 3.9% 3.8% February , % 4.3% 3.7% January , % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.57% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 11

12 Cleburne County Civilian Labor Force 6,000 5,900 5,800 5,700 5,600 5,500 5, % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 5, % Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Civilian Labor Force Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Cleburne County, Region, & State Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 5, % 3.9% 3.9% December , % 3.5% 3.8% November , % 3.4% 4.0% October , % 3.8% 4.1% September , % 3.8% 4.1% August , % 3.9% 4.1% July , % 4.3% 4.1% June , % 5.0% 4.1% May , % 3.7% 3.9% April , % 3.5% 3.8% March , % 3.9% 3.8% February , % 4.3% 3.7% January , % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.30% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Moderate Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 12

13 DeKalb County Civilian Labor Force 31,000 30,500 30,000 29,500 29,000 28,500 28,000 27,500 27, % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 26, % Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Civilian Labor Force Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & DeKalb County, Region, & State Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 29, % 3.9% 3.9% December , % 3.5% 3.8% November , % 3.4% 4.0% October , % 3.8% 4.1% September , % 3.8% 4.1% August , % 3.9% 4.1% July , % 4.3% 4.1% June , % 5.0% 4.1% May , % 3.7% 3.9% April , % 3.5% 3.8% March , % 3.9% 3.8% February , % 4.3% 3.7% January , % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.56% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 13

14 Etowah County Civilian Labor Force 44,500 44,000 43,500 43,000 42,500 42,000 41, % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 41, % Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Civilian Labor Force Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Etowah County, Region, & State Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 43, % 3.9% 3.9% December , % 3.5% 3.8% November , % 3.4% 4.0% October , % 3.8% 4.1% September , % 3.8% 4.1% August , % 3.9% 4.1% July , % 4.3% 4.1% June , % 5.0% 4.1% May , % 3.7% 3.9% April , % 3.5% 3.8% March , % 3.9% 3.8% February , % 4.3% 3.7% January , % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.14% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Moderate Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 14

15 Marshall County Civilian Labor Force 43,500 43,000 42,500 42,000 41,500 41,000 40, % 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 40, % Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Civilian Labor Force Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Marshall County, Region, & State Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 42, % 3.9% 3.9% December , % 3.5% 3.8% November , % 3.4% 4.0% October , % 3.8% 4.1% September , % 3.8% 4.1% August , % 3.9% 4.1% July , % 4.3% 4.1% June , % 5.0% 4.1% May , % 3.7% 3.9% April , % 3.5% 3.8% March , % 3.9% 3.8% February , % 4.3% 3.7% January , % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.28% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 15

16 Randolph County Civilian Labor Force 9,800 9,700 9,600 9,500 9,400 9,300 9,200 9,100 9, % 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 8, % Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Civilian Labor Force Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Randolph County, Region, & State Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 9, % 3.9% 3.9% December , % 3.5% 3.8% November , % 3.4% 4.0% October , % 3.8% 4.1% September , % 3.8% 4.1% August , % 3.9% 4.1% July , % 4.3% 4.1% June , % 5.0% 4.1% May , % 3.7% 3.9% April , % 3.5% 3.8% March , % 3.9% 3.8% February , % 4.3% 3.7% January , % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.13% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Moderate Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 16

17 St. Clair County Civilian Labor Force 40,500 40,000 39,500 39,000 38,500 38, % 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 37, % Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Civilian Labor Force Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & St. Clair County, Region, & State Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 39, % 3.9% 3.9% December , % 3.5% 3.8% November , % 3.4% 4.0% October , % 3.8% 4.1% September , % 3.8% 4.1% August , % 3.9% 4.1% July , % 4.3% 4.1% June , % 5.0% 4.1% May , % 3.7% 3.9% April , % 3.5% 3.8% March , % 3.9% 3.8% February , % 4.3% 3.7% January , % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.20% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 17

18 Talladega County 36, % Civilian Labor Force 36,000 35,500 35,000 34,500 34,000 33, % 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 33, % Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Civilian Labor Force Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Talladega County, Region, & State Reference Month County Civilian Labor Force County Region State 12 Month Average 34, % 3.9% 3.9% December , % 3.5% 3.8% November , % 3.4% 4.0% October , % 3.8% 4.1% September , % 3.8% 4.1% August , % 3.9% 4.1% July , % 4.3% 4.1% June , % 5.0% 4.1% May , % 3.7% 3.9% April , % 3.5% 3.8% March , % 3.9% 3.8% February , % 4.3% 3.7% January , % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force County Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.46% N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Moderate Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 18

19 Region vs. State of Alabama Region Labor Force Relative to State 13.7% 13.6% 13.5% 13.4% 13.3% 13.2% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 13.1% 2.5% Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Region State Region Labor Force Relative to State Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Region & State Civilian Labor Force Reference Month Region State Region to State Region State 12 Month Average 293,738 2,188, % 3.9% 3.9% December ,284 2,204, % 3.5% 3.8% November ,301 2,215, % 3.4% 4.0% October ,687 2,212, % 3.8% 4.1% September ,340 2,208, % 3.8% 4.1% August ,127 2,203, % 4.1% 4.1% July ,547 2,196, % 4.3% 4.1% June ,693 2,187, % 5.0% 4.1% May ,660 2,177, % 3.7% 3.9% April ,045 2,169, % 3.5% 3.8% March ,401 2,162, % 3.9% 3.8% February ,027 2,160, % 4.3% 3.7% January ,743 2,160, % 4.1% 3.7% Source: Alabama Department of Labor Civilian Labor Force & Summary Labor Force Region State Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18 Labor Force Growth Trend 0.28% 0.00 N/A Unemployment Volatility N/A Moderate Lower Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18 19

20 Sales Tax Sales tax data are provided and analyzed for a six-month reference period of January 2018 through June 2018 for each county and selected city(s). Region data are offered relative to each county and as a comparison to state data on the final chart. Sales tax collection is analyzed as follows: monthly high and low values are identified within the entire six-month reference period for the region and each local variable, county and selected city(s) within the county; trend in increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the entire reference period and the most recent three months; and directional changes from prior month to most recent month reported. Trend values reflect rate of change of sales tax collection within each respective reporting period. Volatility indicates the extent of retail sales stability and is expressed as an annualized standard deviation of monthly variances in collection. Higher sales tax collection volatility denotes a less stable retail trade environment, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest that retail trade trends experience less fluctuation. Trend values and volatility offer strong measures of relative comparison. Sales taxes collected are a measure of consumer spending and retail sector economic activity. The relationship between sales taxes collected and economic activity is positive; that is, a stronger economy produces more commerce, higher consumer spending on goods, and thus taxes collected. A weaker economy is characterized by less consumer spending and sales tax revenues. Seasonal effects will occur and have a major impact on this variable as the Christmas holiday season is a strong driver of consumer spending. Some counties may have more retail trade and some less, but the trend within the county reflects the directional strength of the retail economy for that county. With consumer spending comprising approximately 70 percent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product this is an important economic indicator to capture that aspect of the economy. Sales taxes are tallied for each county and for selected cities within each county (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) and averaged for each county across the region. With each county including various numbers of cities, we standardize sales tax reporting for the region to include a summation of each county. Region and state cross sectional and time series comparisons offer further insight into relative retail activity. Sources of data are respective county and city administrations in addition to the Alabama Department of Revenue (ADOR) and Revenue Discovery Systems (RDS). Sales tax data are reported independently for each city, county, and state. Data do not reflect all cities within a county, but rather a representative sample. County sales tax data consist of that portion of sales taxes collected and remitted to the county. These taxes are not a summation of selected city sales tax values but are rather to be considered as a separate measure of sales tax revenue. Region sales taxes represent an average of county sales taxes within the reference area. We do not include city or other jurisdictional entities in this data to standardize an average that would apply to each county. Our analysis does not include all cities in each county, but rather selected city(s). Therefore, a more accurate depiction of region economic activity is an average of county sales tax data, which applies to each county. We are reliant upon various sources to supply sales tax data. A database of current sales tax data is not available to access. There is also a lag associated with collection and reporting of this economic indicator that could affect the availability of the data for some reference months. 20

21 Sales Tax $825,000 $750,000 $675,000 $600,000 $525,000 $450,000 $375,000 Blount County $900,000 $825,000 $750,000 $675,000 $600,000 $525,000 $450,000 $375,000 $300,000 $300,000 Oneonta $436,614 $349,359 $356,274 $429,584 $378,602 $439,971 County $701,787 $695,909 $647,890 $815,541 $769,461 $830,349 Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423 Sales Tax Oneonta County Region* Source: RDS (Blount County and Oneonta) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages, city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Blount County Region County Oneonta Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Low Feb-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Trend 1.65% 4.00% 1.34% Volatility Lower Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% 0.90% 1.20% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 21

22 Calhoun County Sales Tax $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $500,000 $0 $0 Sales Tax Oxford $2,345,620 $2,298,198 $2,744,896 $2,401,516 $2,503,669 $2,635,916 Anniston $1,786,478 $1,308,819 $1,418,061 $1,698,909 $1,544,669 $1,665,596 Jacksonville $550,920 $559,972 $606,801 $593,404 $613,485 $609,222 County $1,436,841 $1,271,641 $1,292,590 $1,460,196 $1,308,526 $1,400,288 Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423 Oxford Anniston Jacksonville County Region* Source: ADOR (Jacksonville and Oxford); City of Anniston (Anniston); and RDS (Calhoun County) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages, city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Calhoun County Region County Anniston Jacksonville Oxford Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 Apr-18 Jan-18 May-18 Mar-18 Low Feb-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Trend 1.65% 0.23% 0.94% 2.18% 2.04% Volatility Lower Lower Moderate Lower Moderate Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% -2.07% -0.99% 1.32% 4.77% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 22

23 Cherokee County Sales Tax $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Sales Tax $0 $0 Centre $156,222 $124,475 $133,968 $158,236 $143,543 $161,731 County $464,106 $431,208 $429,129 $516,693 $468,958 $509,125 Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423 Centre County Region* Source: RDS (Centre and Cherokee County) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages, city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Cherokee County Region County Centre Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Low Feb-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Trend 1.65% 2.61% 2.22% Volatility Lower Lower Moderate Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% -0.74% 1.10% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 23

24 City Sales Tax $80,000 $75,000 $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 Clay County $40,000 $0 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Ashland $59,781 $66,597 $75,306 $67,214 $72,138 $74,836 Lineville $57,896 $62,757 $59,379 $66,410 $61,507 $62,095 County $97,635 $108,440 $106,317 $117,090 $107,085 $111,291 Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423 County & Region Sales Tax Ashland Lineville County Region* Source: ADOR (Ashland) and RDS (Clay County and Lineville) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages, city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Clay County Region County Ashland Lineville Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 Apr-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Low Feb-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Trend 1.65% 2.06% 3.63% 1.15% Volatility Lower Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% -2.51% 5.52% -3.30% Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 24

25 Cleburne County City Sales Tax $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 $25,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 County & Region Sales Tax $0 $0 Heflin $78,667 $122,814 $93,728 $104,847 $107,658 $110,427 County $95,741 $143,656 $104,260 $119,698 $112,510 $124,667 Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423 Heflin County Region* Source: RDS (Cleburne County and Heflin) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages, city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Cleburne County Region County Heflin Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 Low Feb-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Trend 1.65% 2.09% 4.12% Volatility Lower Higher Moderate Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% 2.05% 2.63% Volatility Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 25

26 Sales Tax - Other Entities $1,200,000 $1,050,000 $900,000 $750,000 $600,000 $450,000 $300,000 $150,000 DeKalb County $0 $0 $25,500 $21,250 $17,000 $12,750 $8,500 $4,250 Fort Payne $857,543 $898,508 $1,088,733 $985,876 $1,087,391 $1,100,970 Mentone $10,721 $11,770 $9,992 $10,055 $9,854 $14,374 County $597,582 $505,406 $496,309 $580,912 $540,139 $585,131 Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423 Sales Tax - Mentone Fort Payne Mentone County Region* Source: ADOR (Fort Payne); DeKalb County (DeKalb); and RDS (Mentone) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages, city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Other Entities consist of Fort Payne, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax DeKalb County Region County Fort Payne Mentone Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 Jan-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Low Feb-18 Mar-18 Jan-18 May-18 Trend 1.65% 0.72% 5.04% 2.72% Volatility Lower Moderate Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% 0.36% 5.68% 19.56% Volatility Moderate Moderate Lower Moderate Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 26

27 Etowah County Sales Tax - Gadsden $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,750,000 $1,400,000 $1,050,000 $1,500,000 $700,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $350,000 $0 $0 Sales Tax - Other Entities Gadsden $2,870,745 $2,368,017 $2,320,574 $2,725,717 $2,336,325 $2,546,190 Rainbow City $381,737 $365,123 $436,180 $437,054 $448,781 $438,141 Glencoe $87,253 $93,833 $123,822 $108,605 $114,359 $111,147 County $925,522 $785,930 $766,171 $902,247 $798,082 $866,673 Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423 Gadsden Rainbow City Glencoe County Region* Source: ADOR (Rainbow City); City of Glencoe (Glencoe); and RDS (Etowah County and Gadsden) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages, city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Other Entities consist of Glencoe, Rainbow City, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Etowah County Region County Gadsden Glencoe Rainbow City Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Low Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Trend 1.65% -0.34% -1.36% 4.89% 3.81% Volatility Lower Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% -1.99% -3.35% 1.16% 0.12% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 27

28 Marshall County Sales Tax - County $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $1,300,000 $1,150,000 $1,000,000 $850,000 $700,000 $550,000 Sales Tax - Other Entities $60,000 $400,000 Albertville $1,249,149 $949,121 $1,036,125 $1,240,644 $1,011,014 $1,173,264 Guntersville $1,012,713 $956,000 $871,756 $1,085,338 $1,009,864 $1,144,735 Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423 County $100,188 $95,819 $91,774 $103,756 $107,189 $115,561 Albertville Guntersville Region* County Source: RDS (Albertville, Guntersville, and Marshall County) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages, city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Marshall County Region County Albertville Guntersville Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 Jun-18 Jan-18 Jun-18 Low Feb-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Trend 1.65% 3.41% 0.16% 2.89% Volatility Lower Lower Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% 5.54% -2.75% 2.70% Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Moderate Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 28

29 Randolph County City Sales Tax $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 $0 Roanoke $260,188 $225,603 $221,376 $262,755 $241,640 $255,714 Wedowee $72,849 $80,151 $68,859 $85,052 $84,223 $87,909 County $304,788 $300,653 $371,966 $359,580 $374,882 $374,371 Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 County & Region Sales Tax Roanoke Wedowee County Region* Source: ADOR (Randolph County) and RDS (Roanoke and Wedowee) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages, city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Randolph County Region County Roanoke Wedowee Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 May-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Low Feb-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-18 Trend 1.65% 4.85% 0.83% 3.78% Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Moderate Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% 2.04% -1.35% 1.67% Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Moderate Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 29

30 Sales Tax - Other Entities $1,600,000 $1,500,000 $1,400,000 $1,300,000 $1,200,000 $1,100,000 $1,000,000 $900,000 St. Clair County $800,000 $0 $1,500,000 $1,250,000 $1,000,000 $750,000 $500,000 $250,000 Pell City $957,942 $1,526,885 $1,525,052 $1,503,835 $1,504,515 $1,456,043 Moody $290,105 $279,973 $332,298 $330,329 $328,118 $317,099 County $1,218,116 $901,879 $935,405 $1,112,459 $1,036,377 $1,081,949 Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423 Sale Tax - Moody & Region Pell City Moody County Region* Source: ADOR (Moody); City of Pell City (Pell City); and St. Clair County (St. Clair) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages, city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Other Entities consist of Pell City, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax St. Clair County Region County Moody Pell City Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 Jan-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Low Feb-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Trend 1.65% -0.01% 2.65% 5.99% Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Higher Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% -1.38% -2.02% -1.60% Volatility Moderate Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 30

31 Talladega County $1,250,000 $1,000,000 $1,250,000 $1,000,000 Sales Tax $750,000 $500,000 $750,000 $500,000 Sales Tax $250,000 $250,000 $0 $0 Talladega $847,756 $685,121 $697,969 N/A N/A N/A Sylacauga $488,659 $505,862 $607,095 $585,084 $574,329 $535,212 Lincoln $237,926 $240,891 $293,781 $292,702 $269,415 $282,017 County $632,307 $694,260 $827,679 $1,050,294 $785,968 $814,246 Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423 Talladega Sylacauga Lincoln County Region* Source: ADOR (Lincoln, Sylacauga, and Talladega County) and City of Talladega (Talladega) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages, city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Talladega sales tax data not provided for April 2018 June 2018; values are represented as N/A. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Talladega County Region County Lincoln Sylacauga Talladega Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 Apr-18 Mar-18 Mar-18 Jan-18 Low Feb-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Trend 1.65% 5.50% 3.44% 2.31% N/A Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Moderate N/A Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% % -1.84% -4.36% N/A Volatility Moderate Moderate Lower Lower N/A Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. Talladega sales tax data not provided for April 2018 June

32 Region & State Region Sales Tax $10,000,000 $8,750,000 $7,500,000 $6,250,000 $5,000,000 $3,750,000 $220,000,000 $210,000,000 $200,000,000 $190,000,000 $180,000,000 $170,000,000 $160,000,000 State Sales Tax $2,500,000 $150,000,000 Region Sales Tax* $6,574,613 $5,934,801 $6,069,489 $7,138,465 $6,409,178 $6,813,651 State Sales Tax $162,019,013 $182,644,478 $212,693,172 $188,250,743 $203,510,749 $202,780,432 Region Sales Tax* State Sales Tax Source: ADOR; RDS; and Self-Collecting Cities/Counties *Region Sales Tax is a summation of each individual county sales tax collected within the eleven-county region. This measure does not contain city or other jurisdictional data for the county. Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax Region & State Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Apr-18 Mar-18 Low Feb-18 Jan-18 Trend 1.65% 3.86% Volatility Lower Moderate Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend -2.30% 3.79% Volatility Moderate Lower Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 32

33 Lodging Tax Lodging tax data are provided and analyzed for a six-month reference period of January 2018 through June 2018 for each county and selected city(s). Region data are offered relative to each county and as a comparison to state data on the final chart. Lodging tax collection is analyzed as follows: monthly high and low values are identified within the entire six-month reference period for the region and each local variable, county and selected city(s) within the county; trend in increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the entire reference period and the most recent three months; and directional changes from prior month to most recent month reported. Trend values reflect rate of change of lodging tax collection within each respective reporting period. Volatility indicates the extent of lodging stability and is expressed as an annualized standard deviation of monthly variances in collection. Higher lodging tax collection volatility denotes a higher variation in the level of lodging activity, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest less fluctuation. Trend values and volatility offer strong measures of relative comparison. The relationship between lodging taxes collected and economic activity is positive; that is, a stronger economy produces a higher need for lodging and thus more taxes are collected. Some counties may have more need for lodging and some less, but the trend within the county reflects the directional strength of the economic activity for that county. A strong basis for including lodging taxes in this publication is as a measure of tourism activity. Seasonal effects will occur with this variable, especially for counties that are destination driven for tourists at various times of the year. Lodging taxes are collected for selected cities within each county of the coverage area (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) and averaged for each county. Region and state cross sectional and time series comparisons provide further insight into relative economic activity. Sources of data are respective county and city administrations in addition to the Alabama Department of Revenue (ADOR) and Revenue Discovery Systems (RDS). Lodging tax data are reported independently for each city, county, and state. Data for each selected city in a county do not reflect all cities within that county, but rather a representative sample. County lodging tax data consist of that portion of lodging taxes remitted to the county. These taxes are not a summation of selected city lodging taxes but are rather a separate measure of lodging tax revenue. Region lodging taxes represent an average of county lodging taxes within the reference area. We do not include city or other jurisdictional entities in order to standardize an average that would apply to each county in the area of analysis. Our analysis does not include all cities in each county, but rather selected city(s). Therefore, a more accurate depiction of region economic activity is an average of county lodging tax data, which applies to each county. We are reliant upon various sources to supply lodging tax data. A database of current lodging tax data is not available to access. There is also a lag associated with payment and reporting of this economic indicator that could affect the availability of the data for some reference months. 33

34 Blount County Lodging Tax $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Lodging Tax $0 $0 Oneonta $1,632 $1,041 $2,263 $2,364 $2,118 $2,267 County N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860 Oneonta County Region* Source: RDS (Blount County and Oneonta) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Blount County Region County Oneonta Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 N/A Apr-18 Low Jan-18 N/A Feb-18 Trend 15.81% N/A 11.53% Volatility Moderate N/A Higher Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% N/A -2.07% Volatility Moderate N/A Lower Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Blount County; values expressed as N/A. 34

35 Calhoun County Lodging Tax - Oxford $200,000 $160,000 $120,000 $80,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $40,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 $0 Lodging Tax - Other Entities Oxford $86,281 $99,502 $130,977 $166,891 $153,822 $148,593 Anniston $7,921 $8,850 $8,607 $13,983 $18,859 $19,584 Jacksonville $9,895 $9,434 $13,846 $20,687 $17,860 $17,413 County $15,219 $22,110 $18,029 $27,422 $31,081 $34,407 Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860 Oxford Anniston Jacksonville County Region* Source: ADOR (Jacksonville and Oxford); City of Anniston (Anniston); and RDS (Calhoun County) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Other Entities consist of Anniston, Jacksonville, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Calhoun County Region County Anniston Jacksonville Oxford Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Apr-18 Apr-18 Low Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Trend 15.81% 17.08% 23.13% 15.83% 12.97% Volatility Moderate Higher Higher Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% 12.01% 18.35% -8.25% -5.64% Volatility Moderate Moderate Higher Higher Moderate Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 35

36 Cherokee County Lodging Tax $18,000 $18,000 $16,000 $16,000 $14,000 $14,000 $12,000 $12,000 $10,000 $10,000 $8,000 $8,000 $6,000 $6,000 $4,000 $4,000 $2,000 $2,000 $0 $0 Lodging Tax Centre $1,694 $594 $2,003 $1,796 $1,506 $1,347 County $3,411 $3,111 $6,196 $10,887 $9,619 $10,697 Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860 Centre County Region* Source: RDS (Centre and Cherokee County) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Cherokee County Region County Centre Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 Apr-18 Mar-18 Low Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 Trend 15.81% 31.80% 4.49% Volatility Moderate Higher Higher Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% -0.88% % Volatility Moderate Higher Lower Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 36

37 Clay County City Lodging Tax $200 $17,500 $175 $15,000 $150 $12,500 $125 $10,000 $100 $75 $7,500 $50 $5,000 $25 $2,500 $0 $0 County & Region Lodging Tax Ashland N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Lineville $106 $0 $0 $167 $0 $0 County N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860 Ashland Lineville County Region* Source: ADOR (Ashland) and RDS (Clay County and Lineville) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Ashland and Clay County do not collect lodging tax. Values are represented as N/A. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Clay County Region County Ashland Lineville Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 N/A N/A Apr-18 Low Jan-18 N/A N/A Feb-18 Trend 15.81% N/A N/A N/A Volatility Moderate N/A N/A N/A Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% N/A N/A N/A Volatility Moderate N/A N/A N/A Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 N/A N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Ashland and Clay County; values expressed as N/A. Irregular data collection for Lineville are represented as N/A. 37

38 Cleburne County City Lodging Tax $1,400 $18,000 $1,200 $16,000 $14,000 $1,000 $12,000 $800 $10,000 $600 $8,000 $400 $6,000 $4,000 $200 $2,000 $0 $0 County & Region Lodging Tax Heflin $0 $1,299 $706 $829 $962 $923 County $3,187 $4,404 $3,978 $5,208 $6,298 $7,759 Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860 Heflin County Region* Source: RDS (Cleburne County and Heflin) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Cleburne County Region County Heflin Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 Jun-18 Feb-18 Low Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Trend 15.81% 17.99% N/A Volatility Moderate Higher N/A Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% 22.06% 5.52% Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 38

39 DeKalb County Lodging Tax $52,500 $45,000 $37,500 $30,000 $22,500 $15,000 $7,500 $52,500 $45,000 $37,500 $30,000 $22,500 $15,000 $7,500 Lodging Tax $0 $0 Fort Payne $26,413 $25,790 $38,029 $39,122 $48,014 $51,398 Mentone $1,890 $1,135 $1,305 $2,030 $1,785 $2,069 County $2,752 $2,411 $2,568 $3,572 $3,581 $4,317 Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860 Fort Payne Mentone County Region* Source: ADOR (Fort Payne); DeKalb County (DeKalb); and RDS (Mentone) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax DeKalb County Region County Fort Payne Mentone Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Low Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 Trend 15.81% 11.37% 16.09% 6.65% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Higher Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% 9.93% 14.62% 0.96% Volatility Moderate Moderate Lower Higher Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 39

40 Etowah County Lodging Tax $90,000 $75,000 $60,000 $45,000 $30,000 $15,000 $90,000 $75,000 $60,000 $45,000 $30,000 $15,000 Lodging Tax $0 $0 Gadsden $44,857 $43,328 $48,811 $65,171 $67,441 $68,835 Rainbow City N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Glencoe N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A County $19,083 $18,459 $19,864 $27,866 $28,767 $29,303 Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860 Gadsden Rainbow City Glencoe County Region* Source: ADOR (Rainbow City); City of Glencoe (Glencoe); and RDS (Etowah County and Gadsden) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Glencoe and Rainbow City do not collect lodging tax. Values are represented as N/A. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Etowah County Region County Gadsden Glencoe Rainbow City Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 N/A N/A Low Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 N/A N/A Trend 15.81% 11.51% 11.33% N/A N/A Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A N/A Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% 2.55% 2.77% N/A N/A Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A N/A Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 N/A N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Glencoe and Rainbow City; values expressed as N/A. 40

41 Marshall County Lodging Tax - Guntersville $90,000 $75,000 $60,000 $45,000 $30,000 $15,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 Lodging Tax - Other Entities $0 $0 Guntersville $21,772 $23,173 $22,020 $60,861 $40,168 $76,213 Albertville $5,456 $5,687 $6,705 $7,931 $8,425 $8,636 County $5,802 $6,020 $6,061 $14,479 $10,979 $16,635 Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860 Guntersville Albertville County Region* Source: RDS (Albertville, Guntersville, and Marshall County) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Other Entities consist of Albertville, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Marshall County Region County Albertville Guntersville Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Low Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Trend 15.81% 25.47% 10.97% 29.07% Volatility Moderate Higher Lower Higher Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% 7.19% 4.35% 11.90% Volatility Moderate Higher Lower Higher Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 41

42 Lodging Tax $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Randolph County $0 $0 Roanoke $3,040 $3,039 $2,733 $3,297 $3,582 $2,881 Wedowee N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A County $2,136 $1,748 $2,508 $2,550 $2,642 $3,659 Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 Lodging Tax Roanoke Wedowee County Region* Source: ADOR (Randolph County) and RDS (Roanoke and Wedowee) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Wedowee does not collect lodging tax. Values are represented as N/A. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Randolph County Region County Roanoke Wedowee Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 Jun-18 May-18 N/A Low Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 N/A Trend 15.81% 11.94% 1.18% N/A Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% 19.80% -6.53% N/A Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Wedowee; values expressed as N/A. 42

43 St. Clair County Lodging Tax $40,000 $40,000 $35,000 $35,000 $30,000 $30,000 $25,000 $25,000 $20,000 $20,000 $15,000 $15,000 $10,000 $10,000 $5,000 $5,000 $0 $0 Lodging Tax Pell City $7,286 $37,955 $29,517 $35,927 $31,252 $32,891 Moody $9,578 $7,570 $11,578 $13,737 $12,587 $13,369 County $7,233 $7,864 $6,756 $13,005 $13,441 $10,600 Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860 Pell City Moody County Region* Source: ADOR (Moody); City of Pell City (Pell City); and St. Clair County (St. Clair) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Other Entities consist of Pell City, County, and Region. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax St. Clair County Region County Moody Pell City Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18 Feb-18 Low Jan-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Trend 15.81% 12.67% 10.09% 22.66% Volatility Moderate Higher Moderate Higher Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% -9.72% -1.35% -4.32% Volatility Moderate Higher Moderate Moderate Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. 43

44 Talladega County Lodging Tax $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 Lodging Tax $0 $0 Sylacauga $17,002 $17,814 $25,580 $24,682 $22,628 $25,213 Talladega $11,572 $15,646 $17,614 N/A N/A N/A Lincoln $9,148 $8,635 $12,017 $16,681 $13,807 $11,837 County $14,274 $16,462 $22,368 $26,729 $24,968 $25,365 Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860 Sylacauga Talladega Lincoln County Region* Source: ADOR (Lincoln, Sylacauga, and Talladega County) and City of Talladega (Talladega) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Talladega lodging tax data not provided for April 2018 June 2018; values are represented as N/A. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Talladega County Region County Lincoln Sylacauga Talladega Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 Apr-18 Apr-18 Mar-18 Mar-18 Low Jan-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Trend 15.81% 13.08% 9.03% 7.87% N/A Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% -2.58% % 1.07% N/A Volatility Moderate Moderate Higher Lower N/A Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and Lower as less than 40 percent. Talladega lodging tax data not provided for April 2018 June 2018; values are represented as N/A. 44

45 Region & State $160,000 $10,500,000 $140,000 $9,000,000 Region Lodging Tax $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $7,500,000 $6,000,000 $4,500,000 $3,000,000 State Lodging Tax $20,000 $1,500,000 $0 $0 Region Lodging Tax* $73,096 $82,589 $88,329 $131,717 $131,377 $142,743 State Lodging Tax $3,928,839 $4,701,351 $6,661,002 $6,251,517 $7,002,867 $9,466,804 Region Lodging Tax* State Lodging Tax Source: ADOR; RDS; and Self-Collecting Cities/Counties *Region data represent lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation. This measure does not contain city or other jurisdictional data for the county. Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax Region & State Region State Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18 High Jun-18 Jun-18 Low Jan-18 Jan-18 Trend 15.81% 17.11% Volatility Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18 Trend 4.10% 23.06% Volatility Moderate Moderate Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 100 percent; Moderate as 40 percent to 100 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 40 percent. 45

46 Housing- Average Home Price For the reference period of September 2018 through February 2019, this analysis considers the average home price by county (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) in relation to the region average consisting of each county, and the number of homes for sale. Comparison within these three categories offers insight into the relative strength of the housing market on the local level compared to the state. Average home price by county and region and number of homes for sale are analyzed as follows: monthly high and low values are identified within the entire six month reference period; trend increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the entire reference period and the most recent three months; directional changes from prior month to most recent month reported; and home price averages by county and region for the most recent month of the reporting period, including the number of homes for sale. Trend values reflect rate of change within each respective reporting period. Volatility indicates the extent that home prices and number for sale are relatively stable and is expressed as an annualized standard deviation of monthly variances. Higher home price volatility denotes a higher variation in pricing as a result of market conditions, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest less fluctuation. Trend values and volatility offer strong measures of relative comparison. Higher average home prices are positively related to economic conditions for that geographic area. Higher demand for housing typically reflects a stronger labor market and general economic conditions and has an upward push on home prices. Supply of homes will usually increase under these conditions and have some effect on limiting home price increases. The number of houses for sale is also included in the analysis. Higher numbers of houses for sale (both new and existing homes) are generally inversely related to housing market and economic conditions, especially if the trend in sold prices is negative. The housing sector of the economy is an important barometer of economic conditions. Owning a home has traditionally been a personal goal for most Americans and represents a component of personal economic success. Economic conditions within communities are a driver of supply and demand within the housing market. Home value may be measured by average home prices or average sales prices. The former represents the market value of existing homes, while the latter indicates average price received for recently sold new or existing homes. Slower economic conditions dampen demand for homes and inventory of homes for sale builds as less demand for housing manifests. A higher inventory of houses for sale suggests that home prices are either too high, employee migration into or away from an area has slowed, or demand has otherwise decreased. The variable may also reflect a higher supply of homes by investors, but this effect would tend to be smaller than demand for housing. 46

47 Average Home Price (AHP) $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Blount County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Blount County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Blount County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Jan-19 Nov-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Trend -2.28% -1.19% -2.52% Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -8.51% -4.01% -8.75% Volatility Higher Lower Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 142, $ 136,636 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 47

48 Average Home Price (AHP) $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 Calhoun County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Calhoun County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Calhoun County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Jan-19 Sep-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Trend -1.58% -2.21% -2.52% Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -7.74% -0.75% -8.75% Volatility Higher Lower Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 114, $ 136,636 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 48

49 Cherokee County Average Home Price (AHP) $205,000 $190,000 $175,000 $160,000 $145,000 $130,000 $115, # For Sale in County $100,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Cherokee County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County 420 Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Cherokee County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Sep-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Trend -8.18% -3.18% -2.52% Volatility Higher Lower Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend % -5.21% -8.75% Volatility Higher Moderate Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 112, $ 136,636 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 49

50 Average Home Price (AHP) $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 Clay County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Clay County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Clay County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Jan-19 Oct-18 Jan-19 Low Sep-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Trend 2.59% -2.15% -2.52% Volatility Higher Lower Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend 0.19% 1.59% -8.75% Volatility Higher Lower Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 130, $ 136,636 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 50

51 Cleburne County Average Home Price (AHP) $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130, # For Sale in County $120,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Cleburne County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County 88 Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Cleburne County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Trend -3.27% -2.75% -2.52% Volatility Higher Lower Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -2.66% -5.72% -8.75% Volatility Lower Lower Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 148, $ 136,636 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 51

52 Average Home Price (AHP) $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 DeKalb County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 DeKalb County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) DeKalb County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Sep-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Trend -1.09% -3.16% -2.52% Volatility Lower Lower Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -4.05% -4.62% -8.75% Volatility Lower Lower Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 138, $ 136,636 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 52

53 Average Home Price (AHP) $170,000 $165,000 $160,000 $155,000 $150,000 $145,000 $140,000 $135,000 $130,000 $125,000 $120,000 Etowah County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Etowah County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County 1, # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Etowah County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Trend -2.32% -3.22% -2.52% Volatility Lower Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -6.91% -3.57% -8.75% Volatility Lower Moderate Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 129, $ 136,636 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 53

54 Average Home Price (AHP) $170,000 $165,000 $160,000 $155,000 $150,000 $145,000 $140,000 $135,000 $130,000 $125,000 Marshall County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Marshall County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County 1,150 1,100 1,050 1, # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Note: Data not available for Marshall County in September Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Marshall County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Jan-19 Sep-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Dec-18 Feb-19 Trend N/A -1.79% -2.52% Volatility N/A Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.06% 4.45% -8.75% Volatility Lower Lower Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 149,900 1,091 $ 136,636 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. County data is not available for September With limited data availability across the reference periods, monthly county averages may be subject to high volatility and prohibit accurate comparisons. 54

55 Average Home Price (AHP) $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 $90,000 Randolph County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Randolph County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Randolph County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Jan-19 Sep-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Trend -1.99% -2.46% -2.52% Volatility Higher Lower Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend % -1.62% -8.75% Volatility Higher Lower Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 149, $ 136,636 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 55

56 Average Home Price (AHP) $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 St. Clair County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 St. Clair County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County 1,200 1,180 1,160 1,140 1,120 1,100 1,080 1,060 1,040 1,020 1,000 # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) St. Clair County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Sep-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Trend -2.85% -2.38% -2.52% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -8.99% 0.88% -8.75% Volatility Higher Higher Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 169,800 1,099 $ 136,636 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 56

57 Average Home Prices (AHP) $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Talladega County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Talladega County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County # For Sale in County Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Talladega County County AHP # For Sale Region AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Trend -5.15% -1.85% -2.52% Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend % -1.35% -8.75% Volatility Moderate Lower Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 119, $ 136,636 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 57

58 Average Home Price (AHP) $230,000 $215,000 $200,000 $185,000 $170,000 $155,000 $140,000 $125,000 $110,000 $95,000 $80,000 Region Average vs. State Average Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Region AHP* State AHP Average # For Sale in Region Average # For Sale in Region Source: *Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region that is compared in this analysis to state average. Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP) Region vs. State Region AHP # For Sale State AHP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Jan-19 Sep-18 Feb-19 Low Feb-19 Jan-19 Sep-18 Trend -2.52% -2.37% 1.58% Volatility Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -8.75% -1.13% 0.16% Volatility Higher Lower Lower Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 136, $ 212,700 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 58

59 Housing- Average Sold Price For the reference period of September 2018 through February 2019, this housing analysis considers the average sold price by county (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) in relation to the region average consisting of each county. Comparison offers insight into the relative strength of the housing market on the local level compared to the state. Average sold price by county and region is analyzed as follows: monthly high and low values are identified within the entire six-month reference period; trend increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the entire reference period and the most recent three months; directional changes from prior month to most recent month reported; and sold price averages by county and region for the most recent month of the reporting period. Trend values reflect rate of change within each respective reporting period. Volatility indicates the extent that average sold prices of homes are relatively stable and is expressed as an annualized standard deviation of monthly variances. Higher average sold price volatility denotes a higher variation in pricing because of market conditions, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest less fluctuation. Home value may be measured by average home price or average sold price. The former represents the market value of existing homes, while the latter indicates average price received for recently sold new or existing homes. The housing sector of the economy is an important barometer of economic conditions. Owning a home has traditionally been a personal goal for most Americans and represents a component of personal economic success. Economic conditions within communities are a driver of supply and demand within the housing market and reflect that to the extent that individuals are entering or leaving an area, or from existing residents seeking another home that is typically of greater value. Higher average sold prices are positively related to economic conditions for that geographic area. Higher demand for housing typically reflects a stronger labor market and general economic conditions and has an upward push on home prices. Supply of homes will usually also increase under these conditions as more listings for sale have some effect on limiting home price increases. Increases in average sold prices parallel a stronger economy and more demand for housing in that geographic area. If average sold prices are decreasing, conversely, this suggests that sellers are reducing prices to sell the home or that tepid housing market conditions reflect weak demand. Considering changes in housing data within three distinct reference periods of six months, three months, and one month isolates various points in time that might otherwise lead to erroneous conclusions because of seasonal variations. While both the trend changes in average sold price and volatility of those prices support housing market strength or weakness, relative comparisons must consider the size of the base from which the averages are generated. Data are not available for the number of houses sold, but a more vibrant housing market is positively correlated with higher levels of analysis validity. 59

60 Blount County $185,000 Average Sold Price (ASP) $175,000 $165,000 $155,000 $145,000 $135,000 $125,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Blount County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Blount County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Feb-19 Trend -3.04% -1.38% Volatility Higher Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -2.70% -4.13% Volatility Higher Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 143,900 $ 133,156 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 60

61 Calhoun County Average Sold Price (ASP) $155,000 $150,000 $145,000 $140,000 $135,000 $130,000 $125,000 $120,000 $115,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Calhoun County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Calhoun County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Jan-19 Jan-19 Low Sep-18 Feb-19 Trend 2.16% -1.38% Volatility Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend 1.28% -4.13% Volatility Higher Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 139,500 $ 133,156 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 61

62 Cherokee County Average Sold Price (ASP) $155,000 $145,000 $135,000 $125,000 $115,000 $105,000 $95,000 $85,000 $75,000 $65,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Cherokee County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Cherokee County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Jan-19 Jan-19 Low Dec-18 Feb-19 Trend 2.54% -1.38% Volatility Higher Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend 21.74% -4.13% Volatility Higher Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 124,500 $ 133,156 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 62

63 Clay County Average Sold Price (ASP) $175,000 $160,000 $145,000 $130,000 $115,000 $100,000 $85,000 $70,000 $55,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Clay County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Clay County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Sep-18 Jan-19 Low Dec-18 Feb-19 Trend % -1.38% Volatility Higher Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend 10.00% -4.13% Volatility Higher Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 96,800 $ 133,156 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 63

64 Cleburne County $205,000 Average Sold Price (ASP) $185,000 $165,000 $145,000 $125,000 $105,000 $85,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Cleburne County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Cleburne County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Jan-19 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Feb-19 Trend 0.45% -1.38% Volatility Higher Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend % -4.13% Volatility Higher Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 100,300 $ 133,156 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 64

65 DeKalb County $185,000 Average Sold Price (ASP) $170,000 $155,000 $140,000 $125,000 $110,000 $95,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 DeKalb County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Note: Data not available for DeKalb County December 2018 February Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) DeKalb County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Sep-18 Jan-19 Low Oct-18 Feb-19 Trend N/A -1.38% Volatility N/A Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend N/A -4.13% Volatility N/A Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 N/A Reference Period: Feb 19 Values N/A $ 133,156 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. County data are not available for July and December With limited data availability across the reference periods, monthly county averages may be subject to high volatility and prohibit accurate comparisons. 65

66 Etowah County Average Sold Price (ASP) $195,000 $185,000 $175,000 $165,000 $155,000 $145,000 $135,000 $125,000 $115,000 $105,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Etowah County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Etowah County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Dec-18 Jan-19 Low Oct-18 Feb-19 Trend 1.76% -1.38% Volatility Higher Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend % -4.13% Volatility Higher Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 152,900 $ 133,156 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 66

67 Average Sold Price (ASP) $159,500 $154,000 $148,500 $143,000 $137,500 $132,000 $126,500 $121,000 $115,500 $110,000 Marshall County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Note: Data not available for Marshall County during September 2018 February Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Marshall County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High N/A Jan-19 Low N/A Feb-19 Trend N/A -1.38% Volatility N/A Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend N/A -4.13% Volatility N/A Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 N/A Reference Period: Feb 19 Values N/A $ 133,156 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. County data are not available for reference periods. 67

68 Randolph County Average Sold Price (ASP) $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Randolph County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Randolph County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Dec-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Feb-19 Trend -2.92% -1.38% Volatility Higher Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend % -4.13% Volatility Higher Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 120,500 $ 133,156 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 68

69 $190,000 St. Clair County Average Sold Price (ASP) $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 St. Clair County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) St. Clair County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Jan-19 Low Jan-19 Feb-19 Trend -0.43% -1.38% Volatility Lower Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend 1.02% -4.13% Volatility Moderate Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 188,500 $ 133,156 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 69

70 Talladega County $170,000 Average Sold Price (ASP) $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Talladega County ASP Region ASP* Source: *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Talladega County County ASP Region ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Jan-19 Low Feb-19 Feb-19 Trend -3.25% -1.38% Volatility Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -7.35% -4.13% Volatility Lower Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 131,500 $ 133,156 Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. 70

71 Region Average vs. State Average 225,000 Average Sold Price (ASP) 205, , , , , ,000 85,000 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Region ASP* State ASP Source: *Region Average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region that is compared to the state average sold price in this analysis. Note: Data not available for State ASP during October 2018 February Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP) Region vs. State Region ASP State ASP Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Jan-19 Sep-18 Low Feb-19 Sep-18 Trend -1.38% N/A Volatility Moderate N/A Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -4.13% N/A Volatility Higher N/A Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 N/A Reference Period: Feb 19 Values $ 133,156 N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 30 percent; Moderate as 20 percent to 30 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 20 percent. Note: Data not available for State ASP during October 2018 February

72 Gasoline- Average Sales Price The reference period for this analysis is September 2018 through February This analysis considers the price per gallon of regular, unleaded gasoline. Within the listed county (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) are selected cities (Blount Oneonta; Calhoun Anniston, Jacksonville, and Oxford; Cherokee Centre; Clay Ashville and Lineville; Cleburne Heflin; DeKalb Fort Payne and Mentone; Etowah Gadsden, Glencoe, and Rainbow City; Marshall Albertville and Guntersville; Randolph Roanoke and Wedowee; St. Clair Moody and Pell City; Talladega Lincoln, Sylacauga, and Talladega) chosen with data available for analysis. County trends are compared to region trends in measuring relative economic strength. Gasoline price trends are further considered as follows for each county, selected city(s) within that county, and region: monthly high and low values, trends, and volatility are identified within the entire reference period; most recent three month trend of increases or decreases in price and volatility; directional change representing an increase or decrease in price from prior month to most recent month reported for each jurisdiction; and directional movement of local, county and selected city(s) prices, relative to region gasoline prices in the most recent month reported. While gasoline price trends often parallel across geographic categories, price volatility differences exist. A measure of volatility captures to what extent price variability exists as a relative measure of the consistency of price levels across time periods. Higher volatility denotes less price consistency, while moderate and lower volatility levels reflect a greater level of price consistency. By depicting trend analysis along three different reference periods for each variable not only are relative comparisons available, but also how that trend is changing at different points in time. In the region versus state tab on the gasoline price analysis we include national gasoline averages in addition to state and region to further define price and price movements for this commodity. Volatility is relatively low between and among geographic areas in the region and state, but frequently does not closely correlate when considered relative to national averages. Gasoline pricing is an economic indicator to which almost everyone can relate. Depending in part on consumption propensities on a multitude of levels, consumers are ultimately impacted either directly or indirectly. The price of gasoline affects an economy in one of two ways expressed as follows: direct cost to consumers through purchasing power affects who spend primarily for automobile gasoline for transportation indirect cost to consumers via expenses encountered by suppliers and producers in the process of operating a business Higher prices for gasoline, all else being equal, represent a reduction in consumer purchasing power; thus, less money is available for expenditure on other goods and services. Suppliers and producers are faced with higher production costs if gasoline prices rise. These costs are sometimes absorbed but are frequently transferred to consumers as a fuel surcharge. 72

73 Blount County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Oneonta $2.58 $2.59 $2.60 $2.25 $1.99 $2.00 County $2.58 $2.59 $2.60 $2.25 $1.99 $2.00 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Price / Gallon (Regular) Oneonta County Region Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Blount County Region County Oneonta Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Nov-18 Nov-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Trend -6.26% -6.10% -6.09% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -5.54% -5.54% Volatility Moderate Lower Lower Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 73

74 Calhoun County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.75 $2.60 $2.45 $2.30 $2.15 $2.00 $1.85 $1.70 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Anniston $2.49 $2.58 $2.49 $2.18 $1.88 $1.98 Jacksonville $2.42 $2.51 $2.42 $2.02 $1.81 $1.92 Oxford $2.51 $2.58 $2.49 $2.20 $1.89 $1.99 County $2.47 $2.55 $2.47 $2.14 $1.86 $1.96 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 $2.75 $2.60 $2.45 $2.30 $2.15 $2.00 $1.85 $1.70 Price / Gallon (Regular) Anniston Jacksonville Oxford County Region Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Calhoun County Region County Anniston Jacksonville Oxford Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Trend -6.26% -6.22% -6.16% -6.38% -6.11% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -4.13% -4.78% -2.63% -4.89% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 74

75 Price / Gallon (Regular) Cherokee County $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Centre $2.41 $2.56 $2.43 $2.03 $1.83 $1.90 County $2.41 $2.56 $2.43 $2.03 $1.83 $1.90 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 Centre County Region $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Cherokee County Region County Centre Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Trend -6.26% -6.57% -6.58% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -3.11% -3.11% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 75

76 Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Clay County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Ashland $2.47 $2.56 $2.52 $2.16 $2.05 $1.99 Lineville $2.48 $2.58 $2.49 $2.21 $1.89 $1.99 County $2.47 $2.57 $2.51 $2.18 $1.97 $1.99 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 Ashland Lineville County Region $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Clay County Region County Ashland Lineville Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Jan-19 Trend -6.26% -5.61% -5.28% -5.94% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -4.51% -4.02% -4.99% Volatility Moderate Lower Lower Moderate Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 76

77 Price / Gallon (Regular) Cleburne County $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Heflin $2.60 $2.65 $2.61 $2.28 $1.98 $2.04 County $2.60 $2.65 $2.61 $2.28 $1.98 $2.04 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 Heflin County Region $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Cleburne County Region County Heflin Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Trend -6.26% -6.13% -6.13% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -5.47% -5.47% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 77

78 Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 DeKalb County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Fort Payne $2.48 $2.54 $2.49 $2.02 $1.87 $1.95 Mentone $2.58 $2.62 $2.55 $2.14 $2.02 $2.04 County $2.53 $2.58 $2.52 $2.08 $1.94 $1.99 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 Fort Payne Mentone County Region $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary DeKalb County Region County Fort Payne Mentone Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Trend -6.26% -6.16% -6.37% -5.96% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -2.09% -1.72% -2.44% Volatility Moderate Moderate Higher Lower Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 78

79 Etowah County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Gadsden $2.50 $2.56 $2.47 $2.04 $1.88 $1.95 Glencoe $2.50 $2.56 $2.48 $2.03 $1.89 $1.93 Rainbow City $2.50 $2.54 $2.47 $2.04 $1.88 $1.94 County $2.50 $2.56 $2.48 $2.04 $1.88 $1.94 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Price / Gallon (Regular) Gadsden Glencoe Rainbow City County Region Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Etowah County Region County Gadsden Glencoe Rainbow City Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Trend -6.26% -6.56% -6.54% -6.58% -6.57% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -2.39% -2.19% -2.47% -2.51% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 79

80 Marshall County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Albertville $2.50 $2.55 $2.45 $2.03 $1.89 $1.94 Guntersville $2.51 $2.55 $2.45 $2.09 $1.91 $1.94 County $2.50 $2.55 $2.45 $2.06 $1.90 $1.94 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Price / Gallon (Regular) Albertville Guntersville County Region Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Marshall County Region County Albertville Guntersville Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Trend -6.26% -6.46% -6.49% -6.43% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -3.02% -2.24% -3.78% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Lower Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 80

81 Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Randolph County Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Roanoke $2.46 $2.54 $2.46 $2.04 $1.85 $1.94 Wedowee $2.61 $2.60 $2.54 $2.24 $2.00 $1.98 County $2.54 $2.57 $2.50 $2.14 $1.92 $1.96 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 Roanoke Wedowee County Region $2.70 $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Randolph County Region County Roanoke Wedowee Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Sep-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Trend -6.26% -6.40% -6.45% -6.37% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -4.24% -2.36% -5.99% Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Lower Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 81

82 Price / Gallon (Regular) St. Clair County $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Moody $2.47 $2.55 $2.46 $2.06 $1.87 $1.94 Pell City $2.43 $2.58 $2.51 $2.12 $1.92 $1.99 County $2.50 $2.56 $2.49 $2.09 $1.90 $1.97 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 Moody Pell City County Region $2.60 $2.50 $2.40 $2.30 $2.20 $2.10 $2.00 $1.90 $1.80 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary St. Clair County Region County Moody Pell City Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Trend -6.26% -6.24% -6.40% -5.67% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -2.90% -2.81% -3.16% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 82

83 Talladega County Price / Gallon (Regular) $2.75 $2.60 $2.45 $2.30 $2.15 $2.00 $1.85 $1.70 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Lincoln $2.47 $2.57 $2.37 $2.21 $1.89 $1.95 Sylacauga $2.57 $2.60 $2.59 $2.22 $1.81 $1.96 $2.75 $2.60 $2.45 $2.30 $2.15 $2.00 $1.85 $1.70 Price / Gallon (Regular) Talladega $2.43 $2.54 $2.53 $2.09 $1.85 $1.96 County $2.49 $2.57 $2.50 $2.17 $1.85 $1.96 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 Lincoln Sylacauga Talladega County Region Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Talladega County Region County Lincoln Sylacauga Talladega Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Trend -6.26% -6.45% -6.04% -7.15% -6.13% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Moderate Moderate Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -5.15% -6.07% -6.17% -3.13% Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Higher Higher Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Local to Region N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 83

84 Price / Gallon (Regular) Region & State $3.00 $2.85 $2.70 $2.55 $2.40 $2.25 $2.10 $1.95 $1.80 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97 State $2.53 $2.57 $2.49 $2.15 $1.91 $1.97 Nation $2.84 $2.88 $2.76 $2.46 $2.24 $2.26 Region State Nation $3.00 $2.85 $2.70 $2.55 $2.40 $2.25 $2.10 $1.95 $1.80 Price / Gallon (Regular) Source: American Automobile Association (AAA) Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis. Gasoline Price Summary Region, State, & Nation Region State Nation Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19 High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Trend -6.26% -6.30% -5.59% Volatility Lower Lower Lower Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19 Trend -3.87% -4.22% -4.22% Volatility Moderate Moderate Lower Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19 Reference Period: Feb 19 Region and State to Nation N/A Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: Higher as greater than or equal to 40 percent; Moderate as 30 percent to 40 percent; and Lower as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to nation analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in the eleven-county region, as well as the State of Alabama, to an average price in the nation. Considering the region or state relative to a nation average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the region or state relative to the nation average, a down arrow indicates that the local (region and state) price is lower than the nation average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices. 84

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