Thanks to Sponsors of Economic Forum

Transcription

1 2013 Economic Update Information provided by Jacksonville State University Center for Economic Development and College of Commerce and Business Administration

2 Thanks to Sponsors of Economic Forum Presenting Sponsors Alabama Power Jacksonville State University Gold Sponsors AOD Federal Credit Union BB & T B.R. Williams Trucking Cheaha Bank CMP Civilian Marksmanship Program Wells Fargo Bank Silver Sponsor Regions Bank 1

3 Connecting Our Greater Communities: Overview Quick Peek at Big Picture Courtesy of Bucky Hellwig BB&T 2012 Economic Forum Calhoun County Update Mark Hearn JSU CCBA State of Alabama Update Richard Cobb - JSU CCBA National & Regional Update Lesley McClure - VP & Regional Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Birmingham Branch 2

4 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 14,000 13,000 Jan 2010 Feb (8.57%) 12 Months 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: NY Stock Exchange 3

5 S & P 500 Jan 2012 Feb (10.85%) 12 Months Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Source: Yahoo Finance 4

6 European Stock Index (Euro Stoxx 50) Jan 2010-Jan Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Source: www. stoxx.com +4.86% 12 Months 5

7 U.S. GDP % Change from Preceding Period 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 1 st Qtr th Qtr % 2009:Q1 2010:Q1 2011:Q1 2012:Q1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -.01% 4 th Qtr

8 U.S. Industrial Production Jan Jan % 12 Months Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System 7

9 ISM Manufacturing: Purchasing Managers Index 60 Jan Jan Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Source: Institute of Supply Management 8

10 U.S. Consumer Sentiment Feb 2012 Feb % 83% 77% 71% 83% 79% 76% 74% 73% 78% 76% 75% 73% 83% 75% 76% 74% 65% Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 Source: University of Michigan Institute of Social Research 9

11 In $Billions Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services in U.S. Jan 2010-Jan 2013 in $ Bill $420 $ % 12 Months $380 $360 $340 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 10

12 Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index Dec 2010-Dec % 12 Months Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Source: Standard and Poor s 11

13 In Millions Employment in Alabama in Millions Jan - Dec % (+11,813) Jobs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 12

14 TN 7.6% KY 8.0% Seasonally Adjusted NC 9.4% MS 8.9% AL 6.8% GA 8.7% SC 8.6% Revised Unemployment Rates Southeastern United States Dec 2012 FL 7.9% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 13

15 Claims per Month Initial Unemployment Claims per Month AL 46,000 36,000 26, vs % 12 Months ,000 Source: Alabama Department of Labor Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 14

16 % Change Sales Tax and Individual Income Tax Monthly % Change 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% -15% -25% Jan to Jan 2011 vs 2012/13 Sales Tax Income Tax +3.38% Sales +6.62% Incomes Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 15

17 % Change Sales Tax Monthly % Change AL 12 Month Comparison 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% Feb-Jan 8.7% 7.6% 6.9% 5.8% 4.1% -2.8% +3.38% 12 Months 4.1% 2.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.8% -3.3% Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 16

18 State Survey 1st Quarter 2013 Approximately 287 respondents Operated by University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research cber.cba.ua.edu 17

19 % of Respondents Economic Outlook for Alabama Q compared to Q % 40% 30% 35.2% 32.8% 28.2% 20% 10% 3.5% 0% Much Worse Worse Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index Remain the Same Better 0.3% Much Better 18

20 Economic Outlook Index for Alabama Q2 11 Q % 55% 50% 45% 40% 55.8% 56.8% 51.4% 50.8% 50.2% 48.3% 45.5% 45.4% Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 19

21 % of Respondents 60% 45% Alabama Hiring Outlook Q vs Q % 30% 20.9% 24.0% 15% 0% 1.0% Strong Decrease Moderate Decrease No Change Moderate Increase 8.0% Strong Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 20

22 % Reporting Increase Alabama Hiring Outlook Q2 11 Q % 55% 50% 55% 52% 50% 54% 51% 49% 45% 46% 46% 40% Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 21

23 Economic Indicators Calhoun County 22

24 Calhoun County Member Survey Labor Force Employment Unemployment Municipal Revenues Housing 2013 Update Nathan Hill Military Affairs Update Johnny Smith - Mayor Spot Light on Jacksonville Amy Anderson JSU Small Business Dev Center Robin Scott McClellan Dev Authority Don Hopper Economic Development Council Sherri Sumners President Chamber Foundation 23

25 Calhoun County Membership Survey 2013 Eleven years of data from Chamber Membership Results for seven questions First chart shows last years results Second chart shows this years results Third chart shows average for 11 years 24

26 Q#1: Your Comparison of this Years Economic Outlook to Last About same 38% This year worse 5% This year better 57% Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Last Year Jan 2012 Avg

27 Q#1: Your Comparison of this Years Economic Outlook to Last This year worse 10% This year better 42% About same 48% Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey This Year Jan 2013 Avg Down 8.3% 26

28 Index Value Q#1: Your Comparison of this Years Economic Outlook to Last Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 11 Yr Avg

29 Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year Cutback # emp 8% Expand # emp 30% Remain same 62% Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Last Year Jan 2012 Avg

30 Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year Cutback # emp 9% Expand # emp 24% Remain same 67% Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey This Year Jan 2013 Avg 2.15 Down 3.2% 29

31 Index Value Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year Yr Avg Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 30

32 Remain same 75 Q#3: How Likely to Increase Employee Compensation in Very unlikely 21% Coming Year Very likely 30% May or may not 49% Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Last Year Jan 2012 Avg

33 Remain same 75 Q#3: How Likely to Increase Employee Compensation in Coming Year Very unlikely 32% Very likely 27% May or may not 41% Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey This Year Jan 2013 Avg 1.95 Down 6.7% 32

34 Index Value Q#3: How Likely to Increase Employee Compensation in Coming Year yr Avg Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 33

35 Remain same 75 Q#4: How Likely is Increase in Demand for Your Products in Coming Year Very unlikely 8% Very likely 44% May or may not 48% Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Last Year Jan 2012 Avg

36 Remain same 75 Q#4: How Likely is Increase in Demand for Your Products in Coming Year Very unlikely 11% Very likely 41% May or may not 48% Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey This Year Jan 2013 Avg 2.30 Down 2.12% 35

37 Index Value Q#4: How Likely is Increase in Demand for Your Products in Coming Year Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 11 Yr Avg

38 Remain same 75 Q#5: How Likely to Add New Products in Coming Year Very unlikely 27% Very likely 39% May or may not 34% Last Year Jan 2012 Avg 2.12 Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 37

39 Remain same 75 Q#5: How Likely to Add New Products in Coming Year Very unlikely 27% Very likely 41% May or may not 32% This Year Jan 2013 Avg 2.14 Up 1% Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 38

40 Index Value Q#5: How Likely to Add New Products in Coming Year Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 11 Yr Avg

41 Remain same 75 Q#6: How Likely to Expand Number of Outlets in Coming Year Very likely 11% Very unlikely 72% Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey May or may not 17% Last Year Jan 2012 Avg

42 Remain same 75 Q#6: How Likely to Expand Number of Outlets in Coming Year Very likely 12% Very unlikely 68% Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey May or may not 20% This Year Jan 2013 Avg 1.44 Up 2.9% 41

43 Index Value Q#6: How Likely to Expand Number of Outlets in Coming Year Yr Avg Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 42

44 same 75 Q#7: How Likely to Increase Expenditures on Advertising Very unlikely 37% Remain in Coming Year Very likely 25% Last Year Jan 2012 Avg 1.87 Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey May or may not 38% 43

45 Remain same 75 Q#7: How Likely to Increase Expenditures on Advertising Very unlikely 36% in Coming Year Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey May or may not 36% Very likely 28% This Year Jan 2013 Avg 1.92 Up 2.7% 44

46 Index Value Q#7: How Likely to Increase Expenditures on Advertising in Coming Year Yr Avg Source: Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 45

47 Direct Labor Hours (Millions) Anniston Army Workload FY 03-FY14 FY08 Peak 6.89 Mill DLH/$1.2 Bill FY Mill DLH/$787 Mill FY Mill DLH/$862 Mill FY Mill DLH/$821 Mill *Minimum Core Workload for Sustainment 3,395,572 * 46

48 In Thousands Population Trends Calhoun County in Thousands , , Source: U.S. Census Bureau

49 Billions of Current $ GDP Calhoun County Billions of Current $ $4.0 $ $3.0 $2.5 $ Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis +0.57%

50 In Thousands Labor Force Calhoun County in Thousands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 49

51 In Thousands Labor Force Calhoun County Jan Dec 2012 in Thousands ,245 for 12 Months Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 50

52 In Thousands Employment for Calhoun County in 55 Thousands * * Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 51

53 In Thousands Employment Calhoun County Jan Dec 2012 in Thousands ,980 for 12 Months Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 52

54 % Unemployed Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County % % 7% 8.0 5% % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 53

55 % Unemployed Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County % 9% 8.3% Not Seasonally Adjusted 8% 7% 6.7% 6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 54

56 7.5% Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2011 State Ave 7.5% Unemployment Rate 9.3% and Below 9.4% % 11.9% and Above Source: Alabama Department of Labor Not Seasonally Adjusted 55

57 6.7% Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2012 State Ave 6.5% Unemployment Rate 7.9% and Below 8.0% % 10.3% and Above Source: Alabama Department of Labor Not Seasonally Adjusted 56

58 Claims per Month Initial Unemployment Claims per Month Calhoun County 1,400 1, vs % Total # of Claims 12 Months Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: Alabama Department of Labor 57

59 In Thousands Total Private Industry Employees for Calhoun County in Thousands Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 58

60 In Thousands Total Private Industry Employees for Calhoun County in Thousands Jan - Dec % (+1,300) Jobs 33 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 59

61 Hours Worked per Week Ave # Hrs Worked per Week Calhoun County Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 60

62 Hours Worked per Week Ave # Hrs Worked per Week Calhoun County Jan - Dec % 12 Months Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 61

63 $ per Hour Ave Hourly Earnings for Calhoun County $19 $18 $17 $16 $15 $14 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 62

64 $ per Hour Ave Hourly Earnings for Calhoun County Jan Dec 2012 $16.5 $16.0 $15.5 $15.0 $14.5 $15.70 $15.56 $ % 12 Months $15.17 $14.96 $15.38 $15.31 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 63

65 In Thousands Employment Calhoun County Jan 07 - Dec 2012 in 54 Thousands Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 64

66 Employment Trend* for Calhoun County vs Alabama Jan 07 - Dec 2012 Calhoun Alabama Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *Not to scale. Only for trend comparison 65

67 Employment Peak to Trough % Change AL MSAs Jan 07- Jan 10 1% AL Ann Aub Bham Deca Doth Flor Gads Hunt Mob Mont Tusc -4% -4.3% -9% -14% -10.7% -12.8% -8.1% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -11.3% -11.7% -12.8% -8.9% % -9.1% -9.1% -10.2% 66

68 Employment Trough to Now % Change AL MSAs Dec 10- Dec 12 13% 10% 8% 5% 11.3% 10.6% 11.0% 10.1% 8.8% 8.95% 7.9% 7.4% 7.1% 6.7% 5.9% 5.6% 3% 0% Tusc Mont Mob Hunt Gads Flor Doth Deca Bham Aub Ann AL Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 67

69 Employment Peak to Now % Change AL MSAs 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -3.6% AL -6.4% Ann 1.7% Aub Dec 07- Dec % Bham -1.2% Deca -5.1% Doth 1.0% Flor -3.46% Gads 2.2% Hunt 0.1% Mob -3.8% -5.2% Mont Tusc Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 68

70 In $ Millions State Sales Tax Collections from Calhoun County FY FY in $ Millions $30 $28 $25 $23 $20 *+10.9% Fiscal Yr $28.00 * $25.24 $21.37 $ Source: AL Dept of Revenue 69

71 In $ Millions Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY05-06 FY11-12* Anniston in $ Millions $20 $19 $19.03 * $18 $17.90 $17.89 $18.05 $17.33 $17.13 $17.47 $17 $ Source: City of Anniston * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective April 2012 (25%) 70

72 % Change 40% 32% 24% 16% 8% 0% -8% -16% 7% Sales, Use, Lodging Tax Monthly Change FY vs FY 11-12* Anniston (Oct-Sept) in Percent -3% -13% -0.4% 10% -3% 16% 34% 18% 4% 20% 21% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Source: City of Anniston * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective April 2012 (25%) 71

73 In $ Millions Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct, Nov, & Dec 2011 vs 2012* Anniston in $ Millions $2.15 $1.85 $1.55 $1.697 $1.677 $1.383 $ $1.685 $2.198 $1.25 Source: City of Anniston Oct Nov Dec * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective April 2012 (25%) 72

74 In $ Millions Sales & Use Tax Collected by AL Annual Total FY05-06 FY11-12 Oxford in $ Millions $28 $25 $23 $20 $18 $17.34 $17.89 $16.62 $22.59 $20.78 $25.20 $25.30 $26.00 $ Source: City of Oxford 73

75 % Change 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% 3.0% Source: City of Oxford Sales, Use Rental Tax Monthly Change FY vs FY Oxford (Oct-Sept) in Percent 1.2% 2.0% -1.7% 8.2% 4.9% 7.5% -3.4% 4.2% 2.5% 2.3% 6.9% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept 74

76 In $ Millions Sales, Use & Rental Tax Oct, Nov, & Dec 2011 vs 2012 Oxford in $ Millions $2.3 $2.2 $2.1 $2.0 $1.9 $1.8 $ $2.23 $ $2.04 $2.03 $1.95 $1.86 Oct Nov Dec Source: City of Oxford 75

77 In $ Millions Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY04-05 FY11-12* Jacksonville in $ Millions $6.5 $6.49 $5.5 $4.5 $3.5 $4.26 $3.88 $5.15 $5.29 $5.21 $5.24 $5.42 $ Source: City of Jacksonville * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective Nov 2011 (25%) 76

78 % Change 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Sales, Use Tax Monthly Change FY vs FY Jacksonville (Oct-Sept) in Percent 2% 1% 16% 24% 33% 23% 30% 18% 23% 19% 21% 29% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Source: City of Jacksonville * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective Nov 2011 (25%) 77

79 In $ Thousands Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct, Nov, Dec 2011 vs 2012 Jacksonville in $ Thousands $675 $575 $475 $456 $ $ $ $510 $416 $375 Oct Nov Dec Source: City of Jacksonville * increase in sales and use tax rate from 4% to 5% effective Nov 2011 (25%) 78

80 JSU Legacy Impact William T. Fielding, Ph. D. Dean, College of Commerce and Business Administration General Observations and Methodology Graduates from 1971 to 2011: 49,388 Adjustment: 40% Adjusted total number of graduates: 29,632 Primary data for calculations College Board s Trends in Higher Education Series Alabama Legislative Fiscal Office Census Data 79

81 JSU Legacy Impact Increased Earnings, Output, & Employment Extra earnings annually for: Bachelor s Graduates $441,263,100 Master s Graduates +$321,439,800 Total additional earnings: $762,703,900 11,400 additional jobs in state economy 80

82 JSU Legacy Impact Tax Impact/ Education Trust Fund Total Education Tax paid by JSU Graduates Income tax $64,601,355 Sales tax $24,300,906 Other tax + $12,424,401 Total $101,326,662 $36.7 Million State Appropriation Pay additional $38,135,145 in state income tax 81

83 In $ Millions Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY09-10 FY11-12 Piedmont in $ Millions $1.50 $1.46 $1.42 $1.44 $1.38 $1.34 $1.33 $1.36 $1.30 Source: City of Piedmont

84 % Change 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 4% Source: City of Piedmont Sales, Use Tax Monthly Change FY vs FY Piedmont (Oct-Sept) in Percent -6% 10% 10% -10% 14% 8% 15% 3% -6% 20% 11% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept 83

85 In $ Thousands Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct & Nov 2011 vs 2012 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 Piedmont in $ Thousands 2011 $128 $130 $ $115 $108 $108 Oct Nov Dec Source: City of Piedmont 84

86 In $ Thousands Sales, Use Tax Annual Total FY07-08 FY11-12 Weaver in $ Thousands $310 $290 $ $270 $250 $230 $ $ $ $ $210 Source: City of Weaver

87 % Change Sales, Use Tax Monthly Change FY vs FY Weaver (Oct-Sept) in Percent 120% 80% 40% 0% 31% 24% 55% 37% 35% 3% 16% 76% 34% 17% -40% -80% Source: City of Weaver -24% -40% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept 86

88 In $ Thousands Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct & Nov 2011 vs 2012 Weaver in $ Thousands $36 $28 $20 $ $19.72 $20.42 $19.27 $26.92 $23.01 $21.51 $4 Oct Nov Dec Source: City of Weaver 87

89 Housing Calhoun County 2011 vs % Change Total Homes Sold % Avg Selling Price $112,459 $111, % Avg Days on Market % Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Total Homes Listed 1,140 1, % Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center 88

90 Home Sales/Month Number of Home Sales Per Month Calhoun County Avg Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 89

91 AHA Index Higher is Better Calhoun County Housing Affordability Index 3 rd Q Calhoun Bham Huntsville Alabama U.S. Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center 90

92 Calhoun County: Summing it Up Membership Survey- Guarded. Neutral Population- Down slightly. Near Record Levels Employment- Up. Jan-Dec plus 1,980 Unemployment- Dec %. Dec % Municipal Revenues- Up (Some apples to oranges Housing Market- Up 4.33% Homes Sold 91

93 State of Alabama Update Demographics Economic Indicators Education Achievemens 2003 Other Issues 92

94 Alabama, Regional and National Economic Review Workforce Dynamics Construction and Housing Energy Manufacturing Strategic Drivers Dr. Richard Cobb, College of Commerce & Business Administration 93

95 in 1,000,000 Population for Alabama in Millions Source: U.S. Census Bureau

96 % Pop Change Percent Population Change Regional Comparison US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau 95

97 In Millions Civilian Labor Force for Alabama in Millions Seasonally Adjusted Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations 96

98 In Millions Employment for Alabama in Millions Seasonally Adjusted Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations 97

99 % Unemployed Unemployment Rate for Alabama % 8% Seasonally Adjusted 9.8% 9.9% 9.5% 6% 5.1% 5.4% 4% 3.8% 3.5%3.5% 2% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 98

100 Percent Unemployment Rate for Alabama vs United States Jan 2012 Dec % 9% 8.3% Alabama United States 8% 7.8% 7% 7.3% Seasonally Adjusted 6% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations 6.8% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 99

101 Unemployment Rate % Unemployment Rate Percent -Dec 2012 Regional Comparison *Top Business States * US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, Chief Executive Magazine * * * 100

102 Unemployment Rate Percent Unemployment Rate National Lowest and Highest States - Dec *Rank Last for Bus (8 years) 7.8 * US N.D NE S.D WY IA NC NJ CA NV RI Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chief Executive 101

103 Unemployment Rate Percent Unemployment Rate National Lowest and Highest States - Dec US N.D NE S.D WY IA NC NJ CA NV RI Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 102

104 Number of Weeks U.S. Average Weeks Unemployed Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 103

105 Atlas Van Lines Moving Trends Map 2012 Inbound Outbound Balanced Source: Atlas Van Lines Moving Trends Map 104

106 Total U.S. Non- Farm Employment in Millions Source: BLS 105

107 Percent 30% 25% U.S. All Goods Producing Employment as Percent of All Non- Farm Employment % 15% 10% Source: BLS 107

108 Percent of Population Employed Employment Population Ratio U.S Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 108

109 Participation Rate % U.S. Labor Participation Rate Percent Disabled Workers - ratio of Civilian labor force mil - 1/ mil - 1/ mil - 1/ Source: BLS, Social Security Admin. 109

110 U.S. Employment Unemployed - Millions Unemployment Rate - Percent Source: Bureau of labor Statistics 110

111 Employment in Millions U.S. Employment by Sector in Millions Goods Manuf. Prof/Bus Edu/Health 5 Gov Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics 111

112 Employment in Millions Alabama Non-Farm Employment Source: BLS, Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations 112

113 Employment in 1,000s Alabama Employment by Sector Professional/Business Education/Health Government Manufacturing Source: BLS, Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations 113

114 % of Population Employed Alabama Employment Population 64 Ratio Source: Alabama Dept. of Industrial Relations, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 114

115 Alabama Gross Domestic Product % 12 Months Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 115

116 Alabama Components of GDP $Billions of Current Dollars Government Manuf-All Education/Health Retail Trade Const Manuf-Dura Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 116

117 Percent of GDP 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% 6.6% Alabama vs. U.S. Value Added Activities U.S. Ala 8.0% Durable Goods Manuf Share of GDP 6.0% 7.4% Retail Trade 10.8% 16.2% Government Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Alabama Economic Outlook 117

118 Per Capita Income Alabama vs U.S $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 U.S. Alabama $20,000 $10, Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 118

119 Per Capita Income Alabama as Percent of 86% U.S % 82% 80% 78% Source: BEA 119

120 Per Capital Income in Thousands Per Capita Income 2010 Regional Comparison in $Thousands $50 $40 $30 $42 $35 $34 $40 $36 $39 $32 $36 $33 $37 $40 $20 $10 $0 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau 120

121 Education High School or Higher Regional Comparison Source: U.S. Census Bureau 121

122 Education High School or Higher Regional Comparison Source: U.S. Census Bureau 122

123 Housing Statistics for Alabama YTD Dec 11 vs YTD Dec 12 YTD Dec 2011 YTD Dec 2012 % Change Total Homes Sold 36,985 39, % Avg Selling Price $141,205 $144, % Avg Days on Market % Dec 2011 only Dec 2012 only Total Homes Listed 32,262 30, % Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 123

124 Home Sales/Month Number of Home Sales Per Month Alabama ,539 4,994 4,971 4, Avg ,922 2,985 3,960 3,641 3,020 3,0513,096 2, Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 124

125 Ave Days on Market Homes Avg Days on Market Alabama Avg Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 125

126 GDP and Building Permits U.S. and Ala % US GDP % US Permits (mil) Ala Permits (1000) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Census Bureau 126

127 Growth of Housing Vacancies U.S Total # of Units Vacant (millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Units Vacant (Percent) 127

128 Employment in Millions U.S. Construction Employment in Millions Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), BLS 128

129 Employment in Thousands Alabama Construction Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 129

130 *Cents per Kilowatt-hour Energy - Electricity Retail Price* Nov Alabama vs. U.S. by Sector Alabama U.S. AL Rank Sector Residential Commercial Industrial All Sectors Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) 130

131 2012 Electricity Price* and Congressional Apportionment States Seats Lost Price* States Seats Gained Price* < NY TX < NJ GA < MA SC < PA FL < MI AZ < IL NV OH UT IA WA MO Avg LA Source: EIA, Census Bureau Avg *Cents per Kilowatt-hour 131

132 In Millions U.S. Light Vehicle Sales in Millions Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, BEA 132

133 In Millions U.S. Motor Vehicle Production Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) 133

134 U.S. Motor Vehicle Production in Millions Total for All Auto Manufacturers 7 5 Total Foreign-Affiliated Manuf Source: U.S. ESA, Federal Reserve System, Int. Org. of Motor Vehicle Manuf. (OICA) 134

135 In Millions U.S. Motor Vehicles and Parts Manufacturing Employment: Source: U.S. BLS, BEA, 135

136 Southeast Auto Ford Industry GM Nissan GM GM Toyota 22 Ford Mercedes 65 Peterbilt Volkswagen Nissan BMW GM Honda Toyota Hyundai Kia Volvo/Mack Trucks Freightliner Freightliner Freightliner Custom Chassis Sprinter Heavy Truck Auto and Light Truck Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama *Assembles Dodge Sprinter vans 136

137 Employment in 1000s Alabama Motor Vehicle and Parts Employment Employment Vehicle Manuf (000) MB Employment Parts Manuf (000) Honda IH Toyota Hyundai Source: U. S. BEA, BLS 137

138 In Thousands Alabama Motor Vehicle Production EPA Highway Mileage 2013 Mercedes M (24) Honda Acura MDX (21) C (25) Odyssey (28) Hyundai Sonata (34) Pilot (25) Elantra (36) Ridgeline (21) Source: Econ. Development Partnership of Alabama (EDPA), Ala. Automotive Manufacturers Association (AAMA) 138

139 Gasoline Billions of Gallons U.S. Gasoline Consumed Billions of Gallons CAFÉ mpg mpg mpg Ethanol Req 2025 (EISA) 36Billion Gallons with Corn <= 15 Billion Source: EIA 139

140 Motor Vehicle Ethanol Blending Requirements Ethanol Billions of Gallons Ethanol Blended % Blend Wall 10% Source: U.S. EIA 140

141 Class 8 Heavy Duty Trucks CO2 and Fuel Consumption Standards Fuel Std.- Authority EISA 2007 (NHTSA) Emissions Std.- Authority(Clean Air Act) EPA Current Fuel Efficiency Cat Gal/1000 ton-mi Gross wt. Typ mpg Mi./ton/gal. Cars lb Trucks(8) K-80K Source: The National Academies, DieselNet-Emission Standards 141

142 Thousands of Units/Quarter Percent Change in GDP U. S. Sales of Heavy Trucks Thousands/Quarter Source: BEA Truck Sales/Qtr GDP/Qtr MO O2 O

143 Alabama Aerospace Airbus A320 Delta IV Atlas V Source: nasa.gov, airbus.com 143

144 Anniston Regional Airport Terminal Area Improvements Near Term 144

145 Population Census Up Regional Pop Growth low Employment Improving Unemployment Rate Improved State of Alabama Summary Auto Base Growing Auto Fuel Uncertainty Housing Stable Workforce Participation Population Ratio Trend Education Regional Avg. Industry Growth Income Regional Avg. Opportunities

146 TRANSFORMING FOR SURVIVAL STRATEGIC PLANNING HISTORY 101 THE LOCOMOTIVE INDUSTRY THE BIG THREE s Lima Locomotive Co. Baldwin Locomotive Co. ALCO Locomotive Co. Baldwin Locomotive Company American Locomotive Company (ALCO) 146

147 2013 Economic Update Calhoun County & State of Alabama Calhoun County Survey- Neutral Employment- Up Unemployment- Down Sales Tax- Up Housing- Up State Survey-1 st Q Down Alabama Gross State Product Up State Tax Revenues Up Housing- Up 147

148 Thanks to Sponsors of Economic Forum Presenting Sponsors Alabama Power Jacksonville State University Gold Sponsors AOD Federal Credit Union BB & T B.R. Williams Trucking Cheaha Bank CMP Civilian Marksmanship Program Wells Fargo Bank Silver Sponsor Regions Bank 148