FOCUS Jaya Real Property Company Update 22 May 2014

Transcription

1 FOCUS Jaya Real Property Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst Rizky Hidayat Liliana S Bambang liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id SECTOR: PROPERTY BUY Current Price Rp930 Price Target Rp1,130 (+21.6%) Prev.TP:Rp1, Week range Rp750 - Rp1,070 Stock Data Bloomberg Code JRPT IJ Mkt.Cap (Rpbn/US$mn) 12,787.5 / 1,111.2 Issued Shares (Mn) 13,750.0 Avg. Daily T/O (Rpbn/US$mn) 0.7 / 0.1 Major shareholder PT Pembangungan Jaya 63.6% Citiview Properties Ltd. 12.4% Others 24.1% EPS consensus (Rp) Mansek Cons Diff 2014F (3.8) 2015F F Share price performance 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) (10.6) Relative to JCI (%) (7.1) Value Elevation JRPT continued to show defensive performance in this somewhat sluggish period for the property sector. The company has shown strong land value appreciation of 25% and 33% at Bintaro Jaya and Graha Raya respectively. We re-iterate our BUY call on the counter with a higher TP of Rp1,130 implying 60% discount to NAV. Defensive landed marketing sales. Up to now, the company has launched two new projects including the Kebayoran Square shophouses and the Discovery Aluvia cluster. In 1Q14, the marketing sales was recorded at Rp430bn (21% of FY14F target), where Rp408bn came from Bintaro Jaya landed projects. Looking at landed sales only, the number improved from 1Q13 at Rp394bn. Total 1Q14 marketing sales of Rp430bn declined yoy from Rp482bn due to less marketing sales from apartment. Land value is still appreciating. Last year, land ASP at Bintaro Jaya was at Rp9-10mn/sqm. Our chat with the marketing agent indicated that land plots are now being sold at ASP of Rp12.5mn/sqm at Bintaro Jaya (faster than our initial budget of 15% YoY increase). We believe anticipation of the opening of JORR W2N this coming July played a role. Moreover, our channel check indicated that with better access, more people from West Jakarta are buying units at Bintaro Jaya, thus, helping boost the land value. Meanwhile, JRPT s Graha Raya is now FINANCIAL SUMMARY selling at Rp8mn/sqm from last year s Rp6mn/sqm according to the agent (vs. our initial expectation of 10% YoY increase). New apartment project launch. On June 7 th, the company will officially launch the Accent Apartment at Bintaro Jaya. The apartment is tagged at an ASP of Rp20mn/sqm. 110 units will be launched first early next month, where now 40% of the units have been booked by buyers. Afterwards, another 140 units will launch at the apartment. In August, JRPT will launch the second tower at Bintaro Plaza Residence, which is now priced at Rp18mn/sqm. JRPT also indicated that it may launch one of the office towers at Bintaro X Change late this year or early next year, which will be leased office. Buy JRPT at new TP Rp1,130. We reiterate our BUY call on JRPT with new TP Rp1,130, as we upgraded our NAV numbers from Rp2,489 to Rp2,817 on the back of faster than expected price increase. Our TP implies 60% discount to NAV. The counter is currently trading at 18.0x FY14F PE and 13.8x FY15F PE. EBITDA ,085 1,480 Net Profit ,254 Fully-Diluted EPS (Rp) Fully-Diluted EPS Gr. (%) P/E Ratio (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B Ratio (x) Dividend Yield (%) ROAE (%) Source: Company ( ), Mandiri Sekuritas ( ) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 5

2 Jaya Real Property At a Glance FIGURE 1. REVENUE BREAKDOWN, 2014F Investment Properties 10% Estate Management 5% FIGURE 2. GROSS PROFIT BREAKDOWN, 2014F Estate Management 2% Investment Properties 14% Development Income 85% Development Income 83% FIGURE 3. JRPT S MARKETING SALES (RP BN) FIGURE 4. MARKETING SALES BREAKDOWN, 2014F Rp Bn 4,500 4,000 3,973 Serpong Jaya 3.9% Puri Jaya 0.5% Jaya Imperial Park 2.3% 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,804 2,069 2,806 Bintaro Jaya High Rise 18.9% Bintaro Jaya & Graha Jaya 74.5% F 2015F 2016F FIGURE 5. EPS GROWTH TREND % 28% % 60 31% 30% 52 30% % A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Fully Diluted EPS (LHS) Fully Diluted EPS Growth (RHS) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% FIGURE 6. LEVERAGE TREND 0% 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F -10% -20% -18% -22% -22% -30% -40% -39% -47% -46% -50% -52% -60% Net Gearing (LHS) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 5

3 FIGURE 7. JRPT 3M14 RESULT JAYA REAL PROPERTY (JRPT) Net Allotable 2014F Total Value Effective to JRPT Attributable Value Net Asset Valuation Area (in ha) Price/Sqm (Rpbn) to JRPT (Rpbn) BINTARO JAYA & GRAHA RAYA Residential ,287,400 17, % 17,717 Commercial ,133,620 10, % 10,201 Land Inventory ,570,000 7, % 7,613 Bintaro Plaza Residence % 585 The Accent Apartment % 68 SUBTOTAL 36,184 PURI JAYA Residential , % 813 Commercial , % 659 Land Inventory , % 301 SUBTOTAL 1,773 SERPONG JAYA Residential 2.7 3,478, % 93 Commercial 1.1 4,851, % 56 Land Inventory ,583,000 1, % 1,139 SUBTOTAL 1,288 JAYA IMPERIAL PARK Residential ,086, % 183 Commercial 8.6 1,651, % 119 Land Inventory ,300, % 328 SUBTOTAL 631 LANDBANK Mas Manyur ,000, % 80 Transit Oriented Development 0.7 7,000, % 52 SUBTOTAL 132 Investment Properties 1, % 1,334 SUBTOTAL 1,334 TOTAL ESTIMATED ASSET VALUE (Rpbn) 41,342 Add: Cash end FY14F 598 Less: Debt & Advances end FY14F (3,207) NET ASSET VALUE (Rpbn) 38,732 # of outs shares (bn) 13.8 NAV/Share (Rp/share) 2,817 Discount to NAV 60% Target Price 1,130 Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 5

4 Jaya Real Property Profit and Loss Revenue 1,102 1,316 2,056 2,412 3,274 Gross profit ,033 1,345 1,844 Operating profit ,007 1,385 EBITDA ,085 1,480 Net Interest Interest expense (0) Interest income Forex Losses/Gains Net Other Pre-Tax Profit ,064 1,441 Income Tax (63) (85) (106) (138) (187) Others Minority Interests (1) Net Profit ,254 Cashflow Statement Operating Profit ,007 1,385 Oth.Recurring Income/(Exp) Depr & Amort Other Gain / Loss (1) Tax (63) (85) (106) (138) (187) Change in Working Capital ,350 Other Operating Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow ,252 1,190 2,699 Capital Expenditure (625) (970) (1,183) (800) (800) Free Cash Flow 194 (71) ,899 Other Investing Cash Flow (162) (137) 10 (26) (10) Cash Flow From Investing (787) (1,106) (1,172) (826) (810) Net Change in Debts Net Interest Received / (Paid) Equity Funds Raised Other Financing Cash Flow Cash Flow From Financing (25) (79) (70) (65) (59) Non-Recurring Income (Exp) Extraordinaries Income (Exp) Net Change in Cash 7 (286) ,830 Cash at beginning Cash at End ,727 Valuation YE Dec 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F PER (x) EV/EBITDA (X) P/BV (X) P/CF (X) Dividend Yield (%) Balance Sheet Cash and ST Investment ,727 Acct Receivable Inventory 1,137 1,362 1,403 1,653 1,873 Others Current Assets 2,073 2,155 2,242 2,822 4,931 Investments Fixed Assets ,598 2,020 2,426 Others 2,849 3,892 5,081 5,907 6,717 Total Assets 4,998 6,163 7,362 8,690 11,514 Current Liabilities Acct. Payable ST Borrowings Others Long-Term Liabilities Long-Term Payable Others 2,559 3,237 3,747 4,237 5,808 Total Liabilities 2,777 3,480 4,079 4,592 6,271 Shareholder's Equity 2,096 2,497 3,096 3,912 5,057 Key Ratios Growth (% YoY) Sales EBIT EBITDA Net Profit Profitability (%) Gross Profit Margin Oper. Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Debt / Equity (%) (39.4) (21.9) (18.2) (21.9) (52.0) EBITDA / Gross Interest (x) 29,026.7 n.m n.m n.m n.m Per share data (Rp) EPS CFPS BVPS DPS Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 4 of 5

5 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Research), (Equity Sales) RESEARCH John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Handoko Wijoyo Construction, Toll Road handoko.wijoyo@mandirisek.co.id Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA Plantation, Heavy eq., Energy hariyanto.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id Herman Koeswanto, CFA Consumer, Poultry herman.koeswanto@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal & Metal Mining ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Rizky Hidayat Property, Media rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id Vanessa Ariati Tanuwijaya Banking, Health Care vanessa.tanuwijaya@mandirisek.co.id Aldian Taloputra Economist aldian.taloputra@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putra Rinaldy Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Research Assistant aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Institutional Sales jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Institutional Sales janefer.soelaiman@mandirisek.co.id Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Institutional Sales karmia.tandjung@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Vera Ongyono Institutional Sales vera.ongyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohan Setio, CFA Institutional Sales yohan.setio@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Ridwan Pranata Head Retail Equities ridwan.pranata@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Jakarta Branch boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohanes Triyanto Kelapa Gading Branch yohanes.triyanto@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Mangga Dua Branch hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Umar Abdullah Pondok Indah Branch umar.abdullah@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas ari Bandung Branch indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak Branch yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan Branch ruwie@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (10% or higher), Neutral (-10% to10%) and Sell (-10% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number or fax ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.