Ending the year on a positive note

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1 STRATEGY Strategy 18 December THE 2014 BOTTOM LINE Strategy Update 18 December 2014 Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst John Rachmat OVERWEIGHT TOP PICKS Last Price 2015F (Rp) PE EPS Gr. BBRI 11, BBCA 12, BBTN 1, SMGR 15, PGAS 5, PTPP 3, CTRS 2, SCMA 3, PWON As of: 18 December 2014 Ending the year on a positive note Stock markets concerns that the US Federal Reserves might start raising its benchmark Fed Funds Rate earlier than consensus expectation have now been laid to rest. Wednesday s FOMC statement gains more flexibility for the Fed, but retains its dovish stance. Reiterate Overweight rating on Indonesian equities. FIGURE 1. UPDATED MANSEK EQUITY OUTLOOK 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 3,500 3,000 2,500 Jan-11 JCI May-11 Sep-11 JCI Fcast by Mansek Dec-11 Apr-12 Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas Aug-12 Mar-13 4,545 Dec-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Aug-13 Apr-14 4,800 Dec-13 Aug-14 5,200 Dec-13 Apr-14 Dec-14 5,200 Oct-14 4,800 Aug-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 6,000 Feb-15 5,100 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 6,350 Oct-15 5,900 Dec-15 Putting Fed Funds Rate concerns to rest the FOMC changed its phrase about maintaining the Federal Funds Rate near zero for a considerable period into the more hawkish statement that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. However it adds that it viewed that statement as "consistent" with its previous language that it would be a "considerable time" before it hikes rates. During the ensuing press conference, the Fed Chair Janet Yellen emphasized that, This new language does not represent a change in our policy intentions and is fully consistent with our previous guidance. Gaining flexibility, retaining dovish stance. We assess this to mean that the Fed essentially wants greater flexibility, without altering its dovish stance. The more hawkish members of the FOMC, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, dissented. Plosser said the statement shouldn t say the new forward guidance is consistent with the previous statement, confirming the dovish nature of this latest FOMC statement. Reiterating Overweight rating. We updated our 2014-end JCI target to 5,200 (from 5,350) and replace LSIP with PWON in our Top Picks as we are concerned that declining crude oil price might drag down CPO price. PWON s 2015 prospects are by contrast under appreciated in our view. Please see important disclosure at the back of this report

2 Reiterating Overweight on Indonesian Equities Year-to-date Mansek Top Picks deliver 22.9% returns (vs JCI s 19.6% returns) and we aim to enhance this by picking a stock that fell steeply during latest bout of Fed Funds Rate jitters, yet offering solid prospects in PWON fills these criteria and it replaces LSIP in Mansek Top Picks. Revised Top Picks and JCI 2014-End Target We slightly reduce our 2014-end JCI target to 5,200 (from 5,350) to account for the recent weakness caused by global jitters about the possibility that the Fed might start raising its Fed Funds Rate earlier than consensus expectation. Those concerns had been proven baseless by FOMC s latest statement, offering new opportunities which The Bottom Line believes can be better delivered by PWON than LSIP hence the switch in Mansek Top Picks. We also revise slightly the early part of our 2015 JCI projection initially we expect the big rally would start in March Now we believe it can start earlier, in Feb 2015, with our expectation that the opposition-controlled Parliament s approving 2015 APBN-P (revised state budget). This event would establish once and for all that political risks in Indonesia have subsided decisively, as the opposition control of the Parliament would be proven to be ineffective in hampering Jokowi s infrastructure and other economic development programs. We retain our 2015-end JCI target of 6,350 and reiterate our Overweight rating for Indonesian equities. Two other catalysts would help propel the JCI to this target : (a) we expect the opposition club Koalisi Merah Putih to lose its parliamentary majority by April or May 2015, on the basis that GOLKAR is splitting and Partai Demokrat is moving closer to Jokowi s camp (and there is some chance that PAN might consider crossing the aisle too), and (b) we expect Standard & Poor to raise its outlook for Indonesia s credit rating from Stable at the moment to Positive in April or May These two development combined would result in investors upgrading their risk perception of Indonesian equities, allowing the JCI to trade at higher valuation multiples. FIGURE 2. MANDIRI SEKURITAS EARNINGS GUIDE Ticker Company's Name Stock Price 18-Dec-14 Starting Stock Price Changes Mkt. Cap (USDmn) PER 2015F (x) 2015 EPS Growth Fcast Target Price BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia 11,600 11, % 24, % 13,000 BBCA Bank Central Asia 12,975 12, % 27, % 13,500 BBTN Bank Tabungan Negara 1,210 1, % 1, % 1,300 SMGR Semen Gresik 15,800 15, % 8, % 18,300 PGAS Perusahaan Gas Negara 5,850 6, % 12, % 6,650 PTPP Pembangunan Perumahan 3,300 2, % 1, % 2,800 LSIP London Sumatra Plantations (dropped) 1,925 1, % 1, % 2,700 CTRS Ciputra Surya 2,740 2, % % 3,600 SCMA Surya Citra Media 3,405 3, % 4, % PWON Pakuwon Jati (addition) 505 2, % 540 MANSEK TOP BUY PORTFOLIO 1, , % Jakarta Composite Index 5, , % Source: Mandiri Sekuritas, Bloomberg Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 7

3 Pakuwon Jati (PWON; BUY; C/P Rp505; T/P Rp540) by Rizky Hidayat Secured projects in the pipeline Pakuwon Permai (PP) boosts NPAT by 16% in FY15F. We penciled in our NPAT number at Rp2.5tn (+66% due to one-time gain of Rp1.2tn from purchase of Pakuwon Permai) and Rp2.0tn (+16%) in FY14F and FY15F for PWON. The main booster will come from recurring income projects under PP. We expect recurring income to grow by 13% and 34% in FY14F and FY15F. We should see a higher boost in FY16F of 36% as Supermal Pakuwon Indah phase 2 and Ascott Surabaya start operations. Surabaya products are selling well. Looking at its recent launches, PWON is doing very well with its Surabaya project. Pakuwon Indah s Anderson Tower was sold with a 60% take-up rate during launching date and we expect marketing sales contribution of Rp450bn in FY14F. Grand Pakuwon also launched its first two clusters, Adelaide and Victoria, in West Surabaya. Out of 300 houses launched, 215 units were sold. The two clusters should contribute c. Rp400bn marketing sales. Based on our channel check with agents, both products are accepted well by the market due to its attractive pricing compared to PWON s existing products. We expect PWON to hit its Rp3tn marketing sales target this year. FY15F looks pretty solid. We expect marketing sales growth of 11% yoy in FY15F with project launches in Kota Kasablanka, Gandaria City, Pakuwon Indah, and Grand Pakuwon. Our marketing sales forecast has not included the TB Simatupang project, which may be launched end of next year. Looking at gross margin, we expect it to be flat around 60%. We expect slight margin correction on lease margin due to the opening of Tunjungan Plaza phase 5. Despite the fuel hike, PWON is confident that it is able to pass on the cost to its ASP and maintain a high 60% margin level on strata sales. Possible NAV booster from TB Simatupang. We like PWON due to its strong branding and high recurring income. We expect recurring income to be 45% of PWON s total revenue in FY15F. We estimate PWON s FY14F net gearing to be at 22.8%, which is a good level of leverage. We saw 13% NAV boost from PP acquisition and we see more potential upside on PWON s NAV from its TB Simatupang project. We have a Buy call on PWON at TP of Rp540. The counter is currently trading at 11.6x FY15F PE and 46% discount to NAV. FIGURE 3. PWON S FORECASTED MARKETING SALES INCLUDING EXISTING PAKUWON INDAH PROJECTS Rpbn 5,000 4,500 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,101 1,190 1, F 2015F 2016F Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Kota Kasablanka Gandaria City Tunjungan City Pakuwon City Grand Pakuwon Pakuwon Indah Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 7

4 FIGURE 4. PWON S RECURRING INCOME GROWTH Rpbn 3,500 60% 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % % 62 1,440 1,563 13% % 1, % 2,554 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 0% PWON Pakuwon Permai % YoY Source: The company, Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates FIGURE 5. HIGHLIGHTS OF PAKUWON JATI S ON-GOING PROJECTS Kota Kasablanka Gandaria City Tunjungan City Pakuwon Indah Source: The company Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 4 of 7

5 FIGURE 6. MANDIRI SEKURITAS EARNINGS GUIDE Shares Price Price Mkt Cap Net Profit EPS Growth PER (x) EV/EBITDA P/BV (x) Div.Yield Code Rating (Mn) (Rp) Target (Rp Bn) Mandiri Universe 3,316, , , % 16.3% % 2.3% Banking 836,397 59,980 71, % 19.9% N.A. N.A % 1.9% BBCA Neutral 24,655 12,975 13, ,899 16,159 18, % 17.3% N.A. N.A % 1.3% BBNI Neutral 18,649 5,975 5, ,426 10,122 11, % 16.0% N.A. N.A % 2.7% BBRI Buy 24,660 11,600 13, ,162 23,215 28, % 21.3% N.A. N.A % 2.0% BBTN Buy 10,565 1,210 1,300 12,783 1,188 1, % 37.5% N.A. N.A % 2.3% BDMN Neutral 9,585 4,310 41,310 2,845 3, % 25.7% N.A. N.A % 2.1% BJBR Neutral 9, ,272 1,080 1, % 11.1% N.A. N.A % 6.7% BJTM Neutral 14, , , % 20.1% N.A. N.A % 9.2% BTPN Neutral 5,840 4,050 4,600 23,653 1,943 2, % 30.9% N.A. N.A % 0.0% PNBN Buy 24,088 1,125 1,150 27,099 2,435 2, % 19.2% N.A. N.A % 1.8% Infrastructure 309,332 16,509 18, % 13.2% % 2.1% SMCB Neutral 7,663 2,200 2,700 16,861 1,288 1, % 12.9% % 2.3% INTP Buy 3,681 23, ,153 5,582 6, % 11.7% % 2.0% SMGR Buy 5,932 15,800 18,300 93,718 5,901 6, % 12.9% % 3.1% ADHI Sell 1,801 2,970 2,300 5, % 6.6% % 1.8% PTPP Buy 4,842 3,300 2,800 15, % 32.5% % 1.0% WIKA Neutral 6,106 3,270 2,600 19, % 17.2% % 0.9% WSKT Neutral 9,632 1, , % 20.3% % 1.0% WTON Neutral 8,715 1, , % 18.5% % 1.0% JSMR Neutral 6,800 6,950 6,200 47,260 1,566 1, % 10.5% % 1.3% Consumer 513,021 18,733 22, % 21.9% % 1.8% AISA Neutral 3,000 2,095 2,500 6, % 11.9% % 0.0% GGRM Buy 1,924 60,700 68, ,792 5,571 6, % 15.2% % 1.9% ICBP Buy 5,831 12,000 13,500 69,972 2,638 3, % 20.8% % 1.9% INDF Buy 8,780 6,450 8,200 56,631 3,919 5, % 30.0% % 0.0% MYOR Neutral ,900 26,500 19, % 85.2% % 0.7% UNVR Buy 7,630 31,700 34, ,871 5,603 6, % 17.8% % 2.3% WIIM Buy 2, , % 44.0% % 3.5% DYAN Buy 4, % 41.8% % 0.0% Healthcare 104,518 3,226 4, % 24.8% % 1.3% KLBF Neutral 46,875 1,775 1,820 83,203 2,129 2, % 28.9% % 1.0% SIDO Buy 15, , % 13.4% % 1.8% TSPC Buy 4,500 2,670 12, % 19.1% % 3.1% Transportation 2, % 26.2% % 1.8% TAXI Buy 2,146 1,195 1,600 2, % 26.2% % 1.8% Retail 95,563 3,543 4, % 27.8% % 1.2% ACES Buy 17, , % 15.7% % 1.2% ERAA Buy 2,900 1,115 1,440 3, % 26.9% % 3.2% LPPF Buy 2,917 14,275 16,500 41,640 1,359 1, % 36.3% % 0.9% MAPI Sell 1,660 5,050 8, % 89.4% % 0.3% MPPA Neutral 5,378 3,195 3,000 17, % 21.3% % 0.8% RALS Neutral 7, , % 3.3% % 4.3% RANC Sell 1, % 76.0% % 0.0% TELE Buy 5, ,050 6, % 23.5% % 2.7% Automotive 300,884 21,245 24, % 12.9% % 3.4% ASII U/R 40,484 7,200 U/R 291,482 20,554 23, % 11.9% % 3.5% IMAS U/R 2,765 3,400 U/R 9, % 39.5% % 1.8% Heavy Equipment 67,501 6,200 4, % -23.2% % 3.5% HEXA Buy 840 3,535 4,250 2, % 26.4% % 2.8% UNTR Sell 3,730 17,300 13,950 64,531 5,909 4, % -26.7% % 3.5% Plantation 53,728 4,071 5, % 25.7% % 3.7% AALI Buy 1,575 23,300 30,800 36,692 2,709 3, % 19.5% % 4.0% LSIP Buy 6,823 1,925 2,700 13, , % 38.9% % 3.0% SGRO Buy 1,890 2,065 3,050 3, % 36.1% % 3.3% Property 151,144 14,021 13, % -2.9% % 1.5% APLN Buy 20, , , % 32.5% % 2.3% ASRI Neutral 17, ,557 1,163 1, % 5.6% % 3.7% BKSL Neutral 31, , % 35.7% % 0.0% BSDE Buy 18,372 1,840 2,000 33,804 3,530 2, % -30.7% % 2.6% CTRA Neutral 15,166 1, ,730 1,209 1, % 25.7% % 1.3% CTRS Buy 1,979 2,740 3,600 5, % 22.5% % 2.3% JRPT Buy 13,750 1,025 1,130 14, % 26.5% % 0.8% Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 5 of 7

6 Shares Price Price Mkt Cap Net Profit EPS Growth PER (x) EV/EBITDA P/BV (x) Div.Yield Code Rating (Mn) (Rp) Target (Rp Bn) LPCK Buy ,075 12,300 7, % 7.9% % 0.0% MDLN Neutral 12, ,216 1, % -27.5% % 0.0% PWON Buy 48, ,321 2,447 2, % -18.2% % 2.3% SMRA Buy 14,425 1,515 1,550 21,854 1,134 1, % 24.2% % -0.6% Poultry 75,585 3,022 4, % 50.6% % 1.1% CPIN Buy 16,423 3,790 6,000 62,242 2,424 3, % 46.4% % 1.1% JPFA Buy 10, ,600 9, % 48.6% % 1.8% MAIN Sell 1,695 2,080 2,100 3, % 252.0% % 0.3% Energy 247,517 16,290 18,598 N/M 6.3% % 4.0% ADRO Buy 31,986 1,065 1,450 34,065 3,253 3, % 5.3% % 3.9% BUMI U/R 36, U/R 1,941-1,735-1, % -66.7% % 0.0% HRUM Neutral 2,699 1,720 2,400 4, % 8.6% % 6.3% ITMG Neutral 1,130 15,300 25,750 17,288 2,423 2, % 7.9% % 11.7% PTBA Neutral 2,304 13,350 9,700 30,765 1,717 2, % 25.8% % 3.5% MEDC U/R 3,332 3,640 U/R 12, % 242.9% % 1.5% PGAS Buy 24,240 5,850 6, ,813 9,319 9, % 8.6% % 3.4% SOCI Buy 7, , % 27.5% % 3.4% Metal 53,517 1,219 3,330 N/M N/M % 2.6% ANTM U/R 9, U/R 9, % 619.0% % 1.1% BRMS U/R 25, U/R 6, % 75.0% n/a n/a 0.0% 0.0% INCO U/R 9,936 3,770 U/R 37,460 1,997 2, % 47.1% % 3.5% Telecommunicati on 420,506 18,211 21, % 17.5% % 2.7% EXCL Buy 8,524 4,800 6,700 40, N/M N/M % 0.4% ISAT U/R 5,434 4,165 U/R 22, ,048 N/M 133.8% % 2.2% TBIG Buy 4,657 9,750 10,800 46,766 1,514 1, % 6.1% % 0.0% TOWR Buy 10,203 3,955 5,000 40,353 1,153 1, % 24.3% % 0.0% TLKM Neutral 96,010 2,800 2, ,801 15,343 16, % 7.1% % 4.0% Media 84,753 3,424 4, % 30.5% % 2.1% SCMA Buy 14,622 3,405 49,787 1,560 2, % 35.0% % 1.6% MNCN Buy 14,099 2,480 3,500 34,967 1,864 2, % 26.7% % 2.7% Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 6 of 7

7 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Research), (Equity Sales) RESEARCH John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Handoko Wijoyo Construction, Toll Road handoko.wijoyo@mandirisek.co.id Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA Plantation, Heavy eq., Energy hariyanto.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id Herman Koeswanto, CFA Consumer, Poultry herman.koeswanto@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal & Metal Mining ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Matthew Wibowo Retail matthew.wibowo@mandirisek.co.id Rizky Hidayat Property, Media rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id Vanessa Ariati Tanuwijaya Banking, Health Care vanessa.tanuwijaya@mandirisek.co.id Aldian Taloputra Economist aldian.taloputra@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putra Rinaldy Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Research Assistant aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id Yudha Gautama Research Assistant yudha.gautama@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Institutional Sales jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Institutional Sales janefer.soelaiman@mandirisek.co.id Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Institutional Sales karmia.tandjung@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Vera Ongyono Institutional Sales vera.ongyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohan Setio, CFA Institutional Sales yohan.setio@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Ridwan Pranata Head Retail Equities ridwan.pranata@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Jakarta Branch boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohanes Triyanto Kelapa Gading Branch yohanes.triyanto@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Mangga Dua Branch hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Umar Abdullah Pondok Indah Branch umar.abdullah@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas ari Bandung Branch indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak Branch yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan Branch ruwie@mandirisek.co.id DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number or fax ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.