Daily Focus. Indonesia. Tabel 1: 2Q15 GDP growth (%) Aug 06, 2015

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1 Indonesia Daily Focus Dang Maulida For subscription of our Daily Focus, please contact us at Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 4, MSCI EM HANG SENG 24, KOSPI 2, FTSE 6, DJIA 17, NASDAQ 5, Valuation 2015F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY Policy Rate yr yr FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13, USD/KRW 1, USD/JPY USD/CNY Q15 GDP comes in as expected Indonesia s 2Q15 GDP growth came in at 4.67% YoY, lower than 2Q14 s 5.03% YoY growth, as well as 1Q15 s GDP growth of 4.72% YoY. On a quarterly basis, 2Q15 saw growth of 3.78%, compared to 4.72% QoQ in 1Q15 (see table below). Our take: Private consumption growth slowed to 4.97% YoY in 2Q15 as compared to 5.01% YoY in 1Q15. The figure reflects the net impact of sluggish car and motorcyles sales, but also higher consumer demand ahead of the Idul Fitri season. On a quarterly basis, private consumption grew by 1.11% QoQ, picking up speed following the usually quiet first quarter. Private consumption maintained its dominant role in the Indonesian economy, not only growing faster YoY than overall GDP growth in 2Q15 (4.97% YoY vs. 4.67% YoY, respectively), but also contributing the most to the overall growth rate in the quarter at 2.66%. Government expenditures grew 2.28% YoY in 2Q15 vs. 2.71% in 1Q15. The lower growth reflects the fact that realized government spending was 39.0% of the target of IDR1,984tr, lower than last year s 41.2% realization. Gross fixed capital formation grew by 3.55% YoY in 2Q15, lower compared to 1Q15 s 4.29% YoY growth. Private firms are waiting for a global economic recovery before rolling out investments, in our view. Imports contracted by 6.85% YoY in 2Q15, compared to -2.27% YoY in 1Q15. Slowing investment has weakened demand for the imported raw and supporting materials and capital goods that accounted for 88% of Indonesia s total imports last June. Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI Gold 1, Coal Palm Oil Rubber Nickel 10, Copper 5, Tin 15, JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt) 1,200 5,500 4,500 1,000 3, /13 02/14 11/14 1Q & 2Q YoY private consumption growth (%) Tabel 1: 2Q15 GDP growth (%) Components 1Q15/4Q14 2Q15/1Q15 1Q15/1Q14 2Q15/2Q14 1H15/1H14 Role - 2Q15 (YoY) Private consumptions Non profit private consumptions Government consumptions Gross fixed domestic capital formation Export minus Import GDP Source: BPS, KDB Daewoo Securities Research

2 Local flashes Economy: Indonesia's GDP grows 4.67% in Q2. Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.67 per cent in the second quarter of 2015, lower than 2014's second quarter figure of 5.03 per cent and 4.72 per cent growth in the first quarter of 2015, the country's statistics bureau said. The Q2 GDP growth is its slowest since 2009 and Indonesia's economy grew 4.7 per cent during the first half of Head of the Indonesia's statistics bureau, Suryamin, said that household spending slowed year-onyear, growing 4.97 per cent compared to 5.1 per cent on the second quarter of (Channel News Asia) WTON: Wika Beton Obtain a New Contract of IDR1.35 trillion. PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk (WTON) or Wika Beton posted a new contract amounting to IDR 1.35 trillion in the first half of The contract equivalent to 33.7% of this year's target of IDR 4 trillion. A subsidiary of state-owned contractor PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) remains optimistic to reach the target until the end of this year. Investor Relations Wika Beton Yushadi said, the acquisition is still dominated by projects from the private sector reached almost IDR 1 trillion. (Investor Daily) PPRO: Launches Two New Products, PP Properti Seeks Sales of IDR11 trillion. PT PP Properti Tbk (PPRO) will launch two new projects in the second half of The Company targets to achieve sales worth IDR 11 trillion. Finance Director and Corporate Secretary PP Properti Indaryanto said this month the company will launch the first tower of apartments The Ayoma Serpong. Later, there will be two towers with a total of 1,200 units. (Investor Daily) WSKT: Waskita Prepares IDR 13 trillion for the acquisition of two Toll Road. PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk expressed an interest in taking over the construction of two toll roads, namely Pemalang-Batang and Batang-Semarang. President Director of PT Waskita Karya Tbk, M Choliq revealed company had prepared all aspects to the requirements of the takeover, including in financial terms. The financing for the takeover of two toll roads comes from internal and some bank loans. (Liputan 6) BIPI: Net Profit slumped by 91.5%. Issuers engaged in logistics and energy infrastructure PT Benakat Integra Tbk (BIPI) slowed down enough in the first half of On an annual basis, the company's net profit slumped by 91.5%. The Company is only able to pocket a net profit of USD 3.2 million or 91.5% drop compared to the same period in the previous year of USD 37.7 million. As a result, earnings per share fell to USD from USD per share. (Kontan) KIJA: Power Plant Shore Up Jababeka Revenue in First Half. The power plant became the main pillar of revenue PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk (KIJA) during the first six months of this year accounted for 49.8% contribution. The Company earned revenues of IDR 1.47 trillion or slightly increase of 2.2% compared to the same period in the previous year of IDR 1.42 trillion. While revenues from powerplant reached billion or contributing 49.8% of total revenue. (Kontan) SIPD: Sierad Produce get into the business of processed beef. Integrated animal feed company, PT Sierad Produce Tbk (SIPD) will expand their business in processed beef. This was done after the company bought the majority share of Gunung Sewu Group, through its subsidiary PT Great Giant Pineapple (GGP). Processed beef business is starting to be realized in the first half of 2015 and will continue to be developed. President Director Eko Putro Sandjojo said it would develop its own brand for processed products under the brand Belfoods, and then explore cooperation with a number of fast food restaurants such as McDonald's and Burger King. (Kontan) 2

3 Technical analysis Recommendation Chart 1. IHSG Daily Chart Trading Close 4,851 Resistance 4,860 Support 4,820 Stop-Loss 4,720 View from the Charts Yesterday, JCI respond positive as the government released the 2Q15 GDP s came at 4.67% lower than 1Q15. JCI rose by 1.5% and closed at 4,851 broke the resistance level at 4,850, while at the same time, foreign booked a net sell value of IDR188.9bn across the board. Theoretically overbought condition reflects that the value of the index is relatively high, and the next movement will be colored by the potential selling pressure and profit taking. JCI will exercise the 4,820-4,850 support, and run mix-positive. However, bargain hunting on cheap stocks which in an oversold trading condition will hold the belt in area. Chart 2. IHSG Intraday Chart Source: HOTS, Source: HOTS, 3

4 Chart 3. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt) JCI Composite Index (L) 5,400 USD/IDR (R) 5,300 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 4,800 4,700 4,600 5/6 5/20 6/3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 (IDR) 13,600 13,500 13,400 13,300 13,200 13,100 13,000 12,900 12,800 Chart 4. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Absolute D 1W 1M 1Y Relative 11.5 Chart 5. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) Chart 6. Energy price (USDmn) Day 5 Days (USDmn) 70 Brent (L) CPO(R) (USD) 2, , Note: The latest figure for India are Aug, 04 th ; Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India /15 5/15 6/15 6/15 7/15 7/15 7/15 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 Chart 7. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 8. Precious metal price (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin /15 6/15 7/15 8/15 Silver Gold Platinum /15 6/15 7/15 8/15 4

5 Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name FINANCIALS Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 Bank Central Asia BBCA 13, , Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 9, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 10, , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 5,100 95, Bank Danamon Indonesia BDMN 4,345 41, CONSUMER Gudang Garam GGRM 48,850 93, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 12,675 73, Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 6,300 55, Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,675 78, Unilever Indonesia UNVR 39, , AGRICULTURAL Astra Agro Lestari AALI 20,250 31, PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,360 9, Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,920 18, INFRASTRUCTURE XL Axiata EXCL 3,005 25, N/A Jasa Marga JSMR 5,700 38, Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 3,995 96, Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 8,100 38, Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 2, , BASIC-INDUSTRIES Semen Indonesia SMGR 10,200 60, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 2,540 41, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 19,875 73, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 434 4, MINING Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 10,800 12, Adaro Energy ADRO , Aneka Tambang ANTM 605 5, N/A N/A Vale Indonesia INCO 2,035 20, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 6,550 15, TRADE United Tractors UNTR 20,200 75, AKR Corporindo AKRA 5,925 23, Global Mediacom BMTR 1,310 18, Matahari Department Store LPPF 18,100 52, N/A Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 2,120 30, Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 2,800 15, Surya Citra Media SCMA 2,870 41, Siloam International Hospital SILO 16,350 18, PROPERTY Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,840 35, Adhi Karya ADHI 2,315 4, Alam Sutera Relaty ASRI , Ciputra Development CTRA 1,160 17, Lippo Karawaci LPKR 1,155 26, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 3,910 18, Pakuwon Jati PWON , Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,830 26, Wijaya Karya WIKA 2,680 16, Waskita Karya WSKT 1,820 25, MISCELLANEOUS Astra International ASII 6, , *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 5

6 Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 1, KRAS IJ 403 6, Mining 1, TINS IJ 665 4,953 (2.92) Basic-Industry ITMG IJ , Miscellaneous Industry 1, BBNI IJ , Consumer Goods 2, CTRA IJ , Property & Construction SMMT IJ , Infrastructure 1, BBTN IJ , Finance PTBA IJ , Trade LPCK IJ , Composite 4, NISP IJ , Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close BBRI IJ ,800 MDIA IJ ,600 BBCA IJ ,700 SRIL IJ ASII IJ 2.6 6,800 INCO IJ ,035 TLKM IJ 2.3 2,940 JKON IJ BMRI IJ 2.9 9,800 IIKP IJ ,275 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 1:00am JPY Leading Indicators 106.9% 106.2% 1:45am CHF SECO Consumer Climate :00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 0.4% -0.2% 4:10am EUR Retail PMI :30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.2% -0.6% 4:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.1% 0.4% Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction :00am GBP BOE Inflation Report 7:00am GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes :00am GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50% 7:00am GBP Asset Purchase Facility 375B 375B 7:00am GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 42.7% 7:45am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 273K 267K 10:00am GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.7% 10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 46B 52B 7:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index :30pm AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement 9:30pm AUD Home Loans m/m 5.2% -6.1% Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia (DWS). It is purpo sed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warr anty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of DWS and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of DWS, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither DWS, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from 6

7 which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. PT Daewoo Securities Indonesia