October 17, [MIRAExplore] KIOS: Indonesia s first start-up to be listed on IDX

Transcription

1 Mangesti Diah Sulistiani To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI MSCI Indonesia MSCI EM 1, HANG SENG 28, KOSPI 2, FTSE 7, DJIA 22, NASDAQ 6, Valuation 2017F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY BI 7-Day RR yr yr FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13, USD/KRW 1, USD/JPY USD/CNY Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI Gold 1, Coal Palm Oil 2, Rubber Nickel 11, Copper 7, Tin 20, JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 JCI MSCI EM 4, /16 01/17 04/17 07/17 10/17 (pt) 1,250 1, [MIRAExplore] KIOS: Indonesia s first start-up to be listed on IDX The initial public offering (IPO) of Kioson Komersial Indonesia (Kioson), conducted on October 5th (ticker code: KIOS), was a breakthrough that paved the way for other Indonesian startups to be listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Kioson is an online-to-offline (O2O) e-commerce company providing digital platforms where micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia can market their products. Platform features include bill payment, e-commerce, electronic transactions, and financial agents. On stock s debut, 10 times oversubscribed and 50% increase in share price The company revealed that it raised USD3.34mn (IDR45bn) from selling 150 million shares (at a price of IDR300), equal to 23.1% of the total shares in its IPO. With just over 23,400 shares traded, the share price increased 50%. In addition, the share issue was claimed to have been more than 10 times oversubscribed. Acquisition of Narindo Solusi Komunikasi to strengthen bottom line Kioson stated that a large percentage of the funds raised through the IPO will be used to acquire Narindo Solusi Komunikasi (acquisition officially took effect on October 12th), which is an affiliated tech company and an aggregator of mobile data e-vouchers. Kioson said the acquisition is meant to strengthen its bottom line, as Narindo will support the upstream business. The acquisition will also bolster Kioson s regional infrastructure thanks to assets belonging to Narindo. IDX has been supporting startups following launch of incubator program Kioson s IPO could inspire other Indonesian tech startups to pursue IDX listing as an alternative method of fundraising, as well as encourage retail investors to join the capital market to invest in startups. This is in line with the government s effort to boost the number of local startups; the government had IDX set up a program called IDX Incubator, aimed at supporting tech startup companies via financial and technical services to develop their business and prepare for listing. Kioson s homepage Source: kioson.com,

2 Local flash WIKA: Niger explores infrastructure cooperation with WIKA. PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) host Niger President Mahamadou Issoufou with ministers and leaders of Niger government institutions visiting WIKA Tower, Jakarta, Monday (16/10). Also attending the visit were Director of Africa Ministry of Foreign Affairs Daniel Tumpal Simanjuntak and Indonesian Ambassador to Nigeria Harry Purwanto. President Director of WIKA Bintang Perbowo explained that the visit of the President of Niger and the delegation aims to establish cooperation with WIKA, especially in working on infrastructure projects in the African continent. In addition, also explore the opportunities for cooperation in infrastructure work in this West African country. (Kontan) ARNA: Arwana's profit grew 37.76% in the third quarter. PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA) managed to increase its sales until the third quarter of this year. This increase had a positive impact on the company's profit growth until September 2017 which managed to grow nearly 40%. In the ARNA financial statement released Monday (16/10), the ceramic producer recorded sales of IDR 1.27 trillion. This figure increased 14.82% year-on-year (yoy) compared to the nine-month period last year of IDR 1.1 trillion. (Kontan) AALI: Astra Agro notes increase in CPO production. PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) recorded an increase in Crude Palm Oil (CPO) production until August "The planned productivity improvement program is going well," said Tofan Mahdi, AALI Public Relations, Monday (16/10). AALI CPO production until August 2017 rose 19.4% compared to the same period in AALI CPO production from January to August 2017 amounted to 1.05 million tons. The figure is higher than production in the same period of 2016 of 885,800 tons. The increase in production is almost total production in AALI's total CPO production throughout 2016 is 1.55 million tons. (Kontan) LPKR: LPKR sells Lippo Plaza Jogja & Siloam Hospital. PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR) plans to sell the integrated buildings of Lippo Plaza Jogja and Siloam Hospitals Yogyakarta. The plan will be done after PT Mulia Citra Abadi as a subsidiary, agreed to sell to PT Yogya Central Terpadu (YCT). YCT is a wholly owned subsidiary of First Real Estate Investment Trust and Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust. Both companies have signed a Conditional Sale and Purchase Agreement (CSPA) with a sale price of Rp billion on October 13, (Kontan) BNLI: Bank Permata see the credit interest decrease room. PT Bank Permata Tbk projected a decline in lending rates ahead of the end of this year. The decrease of bank interest occurred in line with the interest rate cut by Bank Indonesia (BI). Bianto Surodjo, Retail Banking Director of Bank Permata said, in line with the BI rate cut, the possibility of credit interest will decrease. (Kontan) PADI: Minna Padi is ready to sell new shares of IDR 7 trillion. PT Minna Padi Investama Sekuritas Tbk in the disclosure of information Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) said it will make additional capital by giving Preemptive Rights (HMETD) or rights issue. In his statement, Minna Padi plans to issue as many as 5 billion new shares with a nominal value of IDR 25 per share. (Kontan) 2

3 Technical analysis Tasrul Summary Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) Test resistance at 5,966 Item Data Item Data Close (Oct 16, 2017) (+0.98%)Trading range 5,923-5,966 Average index performance (%) 3.39 Target Period Daily 5,966 r-squared Weekly 5,975 Volatility (+/-, %) / Monthly 6,001 Volatility (+/-, point) / Stop loss 5,884 Source: Research Figure 1. Daily trend Uptrend ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 10/16/2017 Open: 5,928 High: 5,957 Low: 5,928 Close: 5,950 Chg. 0.4% Vol. 6, R-Squared: Period: 136 Std.: , Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : ,966.1 V-Ratio : , , , , , , ,812.7 Optimization Trading System ^JKSE - Volume =.00, EMA(Volume,45) = 5,903,053, ,903,053,312 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Source: Research 3

4 Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized,w%r optimized,rsi optimized, Stochastic %D optimized & Bollinger Band optimized ^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = ^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = ^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = ^JKSE - Stochastic %D = 66.57, MA = ^JKSE - Daily 10/16/2017 Open , Hi , Lo , Close (0.4%) BBTop(Average,45,1.47) = 5,934.21, BBBot(Average,45,1.47) = 5,820.94, SMA Typical Price(Average,45) = 5, , ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 10/16/2017 Open: 5,928 High: 5,957 Low: 5,928 Close: 5,950 Chg. 0.4% Vol. R-Squared: Period: 136 Std.: 1.48 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : 0.96 Optimization Trading System ^JKSE - Volume =.00, EMA(Volume,45) = 5,903,053, , , , , ,903,053,312 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 9 16 Source: Research 4

5 Figure 3. Weekly Trend Uptrend, MFI optimized,rsi optimized, Stochastic %D & Bollinger Band optimized ^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = ^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = ^JKSE - Stochastic %D = 66.74, MA = ^JKSE - Weekly 10/22/2017 Open , Hi , Lo , Close (0.4%) BBTop(Average,18,1.76) = 5,945.40, BBBot(Average,18,1.76) = 5,749.46, SMA Typical Price(Average,18) = 5, , ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 10/22/2017 Open: 5,928 High: 5,957 Low: 5,928 Close: 5,950 Chg. 0.4% Vol. R-Squared: Period: 49 Std.: 1.79 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : , , ,016 5, Optimization Trading System ^JKSE - Volume =.00, EMA(Volume,19) = 26,681,544, Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun 22 Jul Aug 31 Sep Oct 22 26,681,544,704 Source: Research Figure 4. Daily : 5,923 5,966 Figure 5. Weekly : 5,919 5,975 Figure 6. Monthly : 5,846 6,001 ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 10/16/2017 Open: 5,928 High: 5,957 R-Squared: ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 10/22/2017 Open: 5,928 High: 5,957 R-Squared: x ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Monthly - 10/16/2017 Open: 5,918 High: Prev. Avg. Price: 5,925.9 R-Squared: x Period: 136 Period: 49 Period: 30 Std.Dev: 1.48 Std.Dev: ,004.4 Std.Dev: 1.22 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : 0.98 Chg.: 0.4% 5,966.1 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : 1.13 Chg.: 0.4% 5,974.7 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : 0.95 Chg.: 0.8% 6, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,838.1 ^JKSE - Volume =.00 ^JKSE - Volume =.00 ^JKSE - Volume = 63,909,212, Oct Jul Aug 31Sep Oct 2017 Apr Jul Oct 63,909,212,160 Source: Research Source: Research Source: Research 5

6 Chart 7. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 8. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R) 6,000 (IDR) 13,800 (%, %p) 12 Absolute Relative , ,900 5,800 5,700 5,600 7/17 8/14 9/11 10/9 13,600 13,500 13,400 13,300 13,200 13, D 1W 1M 1Y Source: Bloomberg, Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, Chart 9. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) (USDmn) 1,200 1, Note: The latest figure for India are Oct 13 th, 2017 Source: Bloomberg, 1 Day 5 Days Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India Chart 10. Energy price (D-3M=100) 125 CPO WTI Coal /17 8/14 9/11 10/9 Source: Bloomberg, Chart 11. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 12. Precious metal price (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin (D-3M=100) Silver Gold Platinum /17 8/14 9/11 10/9 Source: Bloomberg, /17 8/14 9/11 10/9 Source: Bloomberg, 6

7 Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 Jakarta Composite Index JCI 5,950 6,533, FINANCIALS Bank Central Asia BBCA 20, , Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 6, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 15, , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 7, , Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 3,070 32, CONSUMER HM Sampoerna HMSP 3, , Gudang Garam GGRM 64, , Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 8, , Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 8,325 73, Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,700 79, Unilever Indonesia UNVR 49, , AGRICULTURAL Astra Agro Lestari AALI 14,625 28, PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,440 9, Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,495 14, INFRASTRUCTURE XL Axiata EXCL 3,540 37, Jasa Marga JSMR 6,100 44, Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 1,625 39, Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 6,450 29, Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 4, , Soechi Lines SOCI 274 1, N/A N/A Garuda Indonesia GIAA 326 8, BASIC-INDUSTRIES Semen Indonesia SMGR 10,900 64, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 3,210 52, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 19,475 71, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,360 15, MINING Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 21,400 24, Adaro Energy ADRO 1,870 59, Aneka Tambang ANTM , Vale Indonesia INCO 2,970 29, Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 10,650 24, TRADE United Tractors UNTR 34, , AKR Corporindo AKRA 7,050 28, Global Mediacom BMTR 565 8, N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Matahari Department Store LPPF 9,650 28, Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,475 21, Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 655 3, Surya Citra Media SCMA 2,170 31, Siloam International Hospital SILO 9,275 12, PROPERTY Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,765 33, Adhi Karya ADHI 2,100 7, Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 394 7, Ciputra Development CTRA 1,165 21, Lippo Karawaci LPKR , Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 2,760 17, Pakuwon Jati PWON , Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,035 14, Wijaya Karya WIKA 1,800 16, Waskita Karya WSKT 2,040 27, MISCELLANEOUS Astra International ASII 8, , Source: Bloomberg, *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 7

8 Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 1, INAF IJ , Mining 1, TFCO IJ , Basic-Industry WSKT IJ , Miscellaneous Industry 1, IBST IJ , Consumer Goods 2, PWON IJ , Property & Construction KREN IJ 510 9, Infrastructure 1, BMTR IJ 565 8, Finance 1, KAEF IJ , Trade SIMP IJ 540 8, Composite 0.4 INDY IJ , Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close HMSP IJ 2.4 3,850 ASII IJ ,375 BMRI IJ 2.2 6,925 BBNI IJ ,525 WSKT IJ 9.4 2,040 ICBP IJ ,700 TLKM IJ 0.5 4,450 PTBA IJ ,650 INAF IJ ,810 MAYA IJ ,400 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous Tentative USD Federal Budget Balance -1.0B B 4:45am NZD CPI q/q 0.4% 0.0% 7:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 7:30am AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks 7:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 0.0% 3:00pm EUR Italian Trade Balance 4.23B 6.56B 3:15pm GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks 3:30pm GBP CPI y/y 3.0% 2.9% 3:30pm GBP PPI Input m/m 1.2% 1.6% 3:30pm GBP RPI y/y 4.0% 3.9% 3:30pm GBP Core CPI y/y 2.7% 2.7% 3:30pm GBP HPI y/y 5.4% 5.1% 3:30pm GBP PPI Output m/m 0.2% 0.4% 4:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment :00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment :15pm GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks 5:00pm EUR Final CPI y/y 1.5% 1.5% 5:00pm EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.1% 1.1% 5:15pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks 7:30pm USD Import Prices m/m 0.6% 0.6% 8:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 76.2% 76.1% 8:15pm USD Industrial Production m/m 0.4% -0.9% 9:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -2.4% Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory 8

9 Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT. It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. PT