December 8, MIRAE s annual event: Korea Investment Seminar

Transcription

1 Mangesti Diah Sulistiani To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 6, MSCI Indonesia MSCI EM 1, HANG SENG 28, KOSPI 2, FTSE 7, DJIA 24, NASDAQ 6, Valuation 2018F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY BI 7-Day RR yr yr FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13, USD/KRW 1, USD/JPY USD/CNY Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI Gold 1, Coal Palm Oil 2, Rubber Nickel 11, Copper 6, Tin 19, MIRAE s annual event: Korea Investment Seminar MIRAE s year-end seminar attracts Indonesia-based Korean businessmen On December 6th, we held our fourth year-end Korea Investment Seminar at Jakarta s Mulia Hotel. The event, attended by around 80 Indonesia-based Korean investors, gave us a chance to discuss recent economic conditions and the outlook of Indonesia s capital market and economy, topics that are of interest to the Indonesia-based Korean community. The event began with a welcome speech by our CEO, Mr. Ryoo Sung Choon, and continued with introductions by representatives of the investment banking, fixed income, and research teams of. Presentations on recent economic issues and outlook We invited two guest speakers: Mr. Ku Yonguk, from the Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Center, and Mr. Shin Yoon Sung, an economist from Indonesia-Korea Joint Secretariat for Economic Development. Mr. Ku Yonguk kicked off the first session with a presentation titled Economic outlook & global asset allocation strategy, which delved into global economic issues and Korea s economic and currency outlook. The second session was led by Mr. Shin Yoon Sung, who discussed the raw material price outlook for In particular, he addressed the oil price trend and outlook, as well as raw materials global price outlook. Mr. Taye Shim, head of research at, concluded the seminar with a presentation titled Gearing up for growth. He discussed Indonesia s economic and stock market outlook, especially the economic and currency outlook for 2018, and also highlighted promising industries and stocks for investment. The event inspired enthusiastic participation and drew keen attention from Korean investors and business leaders based in Indonesia. Looking ahead, we will continue to hold this type of investment seminar to keep Indonesia-based Korean professionals well-informed about global economic issues and Indonesia s outlook. s Korea Investment Seminar JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) JCI MSCI EM 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 10/16 01/17 04/17 07/17 10/17 (pt) 1,250 1, Source: Research team,

2 Local flash BKSL: Sentul City pursues IDR 3.2 T revenues in PT Sentul City Tbk (BKSL) is optimistic to be able to record better performance in 2018 despite the challenges of property business is still big. Next year, the company is targeting marketingsales or pre-sales growth of 25%. BKSL aims pre-sale of IDR 1.5 trillion. While this year, the company only targets IDR 1.2 trillion and the developer is optimistic that the target will be achieved. Not only from marketing sales, BKSL also targets sharp growth in revenue and net income. Next year, the company pegged revenue of IDR 3.2 trillion or grew 113.3% compared to the target of 2017 of IDR 1.5 trillion. We are targeting high revenues and earnings because we will have very large transactions that have been backward for a long time, which we projected to earn at the end of this year or early next year, "said Keith Steven Muljadi, President Director of PT Sentul City Tbk in Bogor on Thursday (7/12). (Kontan) GJTL: Gajah Tunggal already has 195 tire retail outlets. PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk (GJTL) until the third quarter has recorded 195 replacement tire replacement outlets. These outlets are a partnership with a local distributor. Based on information disclosure (7/12) Gajah Tunggal has a total of 195 retail outlets with 135 stores using flagshiptirezone and 60 outlets using flaghsiptirexpress. More than half are located in Java. (Kontan) AGRO: BRI Agro plans up to BUKU III next year. The plan to strengthen the bank from the capital side will soon be done by PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Agroniaga Tbk (BRI Agro) in If run smoothly, then next year BRI Agro will be able to go up to bank book III with minimum core capital of IDR 5 trillion. Zuhri Anwar, Business Director of BRI Agro, said that the company has planned to increase its capital in 2018 to raise the bank class. Mechanisms that may be done by way of a rights issue. (Kontan) TRAM: TRAM synergize shipping business with coal. After acquiring companies in the mining, energy and services sectors. PT Trada Alam Minerals Tbk (TRAM) plans to synergize the shipping business that has been run, especially dry load transport business for coal transportation with coal mining company and mining contracting services. TRAM Main Director, Soebianto Hidayat said the synergy of shipping business with coal is one of them with acquired PT Gunung Bara Utama (GBU) and PT SMR Utama Tbk (SMRU) as a company with subsidiaries of PT Ricobana Abadi (RBA), which owns mining contractor business and PT Delta Samudera (DS) which also owns mines coal in Kutai Barat. (Kontan) AMRT: Alfaria operates a total of 13,400 outlets. PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT) to date has operated 13,400 stores throughout Indonesia. Although this year retail is still depressed, but the company still expands new outlets. Ryan Alfons Kaloh, Marketing Director of AMRT said that the company currently has more than 13,400 outlets and 32 branches throughout Indonesia. In addition, the company also employs more than 120,000 employees. (Kontan) ASJT: Jastan Insurance at profit grows 44% in The lethargy of the domestic economy is one of the factors that dragged net profit PT Asuransi Jasa Tania Tbk alias Jastan has not been speeding in this year. Even so, the company is more optimistic to see the potential in 2018 will be more prospective. Director of Jastan Teddy Sastra explained, in the next year his side predict profit can increase significantly by 44% to IDR billion. (Kontan) 2

3 Summary Technical analysis Tasrul Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) Test Resistance at 6,038. Item Data Item Data Close (Dec 7, 2017) 6,006.8 (-0.475%)Trading range 5,996-6,038 Average index performance (%) 3.38 Target Period Daily 6,039 r-squared Weekly 6,070 Volatility (+/-, %) / Monthly 6,083 Volatility (+/-, point) / Stop loss 5,984 Source: Research Figure 1. Daily trend Uptrend ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 12/7/2017 Open: 6,007 High: 6,039 Low: 6,007 Close: 6,007 Vol. 5,018,308,096 Prev. Av g. Price: 6,017.6 R-Squared: Period: 173 Std.Dev : 1.73 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : 0.96 Chg.: % 6, , , , ,055 6,055 6, , , Optimization Trading System ^JKSE - Volume = 5,018,308,096.00, EMA(Volume,28) = 6,220,423, ,220,423,680 5,018,308,096 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Research 3

4 Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized,rsi optimized, Stochastic %D optimized & Bollinger Band optimized ^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = ^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = ^JKSE - Stochastic %D = 47.81, MA = ^JKSE - Daily 12/7/2017 Open , Hi , Lo , Close (-0.5%) BBTop(Av erage,28,1.73) = 6,078.24, BBBot(Av erage,28,1.73) = 5,989.68, SMA 6, ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 12/7/2017 Open: 6,007 High: 6,039 Low: 6,007 Close: 6,007 Chg. -0.5% Vol. 5,018,308,096 Prev. Av g. Price: 6,017.6 R-Squared: Period: 173 Std.: 1.73 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio Optimization : 0.96 Trading System ^JKSE - Volume = 5,018,308,096.00, EMA(Volume,27) = 6,223,481, , , , , ,223,481,344 5,018,308,096 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Research 4

5 Figure 3. Weekly Trend Uptrend, MFI optimized,w%r optimized, Stochastic %D & Bollinger Band optimized ^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = ^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = ^JKSE - Stochastic %D = 51.40, MA = ^JKSE - Weekly 12/7/2017 Open , Hi , Lo , Close (0.9%) BBTop(Av erage,18,1.84) = 6,078.80, BBBot(Av erage,18,1.84) = 5,789.55, 5, ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 12/7/2017 Open: 6,014 High: 6,044 Low: 5,979 Close: 6,007 Chg. 0.9% Vol. 23,533,783,040 Prev. Av g. Price: 6,010.2 R-Squared: Period: 56 Std.: 1.85 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio Optimization : 1.15 Trading System ^JKSE - Volume = 23,533,783,040.00, EMA(Volume,18) = 28,964,460, , , , , Jul Oct 2017 Apr Jul Oct Source: Research 28,964,460,544 23,533,783,040 Figure 4. Daily : 5,996 6,039 Figure 5. Weekly : 5,958-6,070 Figure 6. Monthly : 5,927 6,083 ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 12/7/2017 Open: 6,007 Prev. Av g. Price: 6,017.6 R-Squared: Period: 173 Std.Dev : 1.73 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : 0.96 Chg.: % 6,038.8 ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 12/7/2017 Open: Prev. Av g. Price: 6,010.2 R-Squared: Period: 56 Std.Dev : 1.85 Volatility (+) : ,069.7 Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : 1.15 Chg.: 0.919% x ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Monthly - 12/7/2017 Open: Prev. Av g. Price: 6,010.2 R-Squared: Period: 30 Std.Dev : 1.83 Volatility (+) : ,155.0 Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : ,082.6 x 6, , , , , , ,995.6 ^JKSE - Volume = 5,018,308, ^JKSE - Volume = 23,533,783, ^JKSE - Volume = 23,533,783, Dec 6 7 5,018,308,096 23,533,783,040 Nov Dec Apr Jul Oct 23,533,783,040 Source: Research Source: Research Source: Research 5

6 Chart 7. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R) 6,100 6,000 5,900 5,800 5,700 9/7 10/5 11/2 11/30 Source: Bloomberg, (IDR) 13,800 13,700 13,600 13,500 13,400 13,300 13,200 13,100 Chart 8. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, Absolute 2.3 Relative D 1W 1M 1Y Chart 9. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) Chart 10. Energy price (USDmn) , Note: The latest figure for India are December 6 th, 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Day 5 Days Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India (D-3M=100) 120 CPO WTI Coal /7 10/5 11/2 11/30 Source: Bloomberg, Chart 11. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 12. Precious metal price (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin (D-3M=100) Silver Gold Platinum 80 09/17 10/17 11/17 11/17 Source: Bloomberg, 85 9/7 10/5 11/2 11/30 Source: Bloomberg, 6

7 Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 Jakarta Composite Index JCI 6,007 6,678, FINANCIALS Bank Central Asia BBCA 20, , Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 7, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 3, , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 8, , Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 3,550 37, CONSUMER HM Sampoerna HMSP 4, , Gudang Garam GGRM 79, , Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 8, , Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 7,325 64, Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,655 77, Unilever Indonesia UNVR 50, , AGRICULTURAL Astra Agro Lestari AALI 13,000 25, PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,330 9, Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,430 13, INFRASTRUCTURE XL Axiata EXCL 2,950 31, Jasa Marga JSMR 6,275 45, Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 1,620 39, Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 5,900 26, Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 4, , Soechi Lines SOCI 242 1, N/A N/A Garuda Indonesia GIAA 304 7, BASIC-INDUSTRIES Semen Indonesia SMGR 9,250 54, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 3,020 49, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 18,950 69, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,235 14, MINING Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 21,200 23, Adaro Energy ADRO 1,710 54, Aneka Tambang ANTM , Vale Indonesia INCO 2,700 26, N/A Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 10,950 25, TRADE United Tractors UNTR 33, , AKR Corporindo AKRA 6,175 24, Global Mediacom BMTR 550 7, N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A A N/A Matahari Department Store LPPF 10,275 29, Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,325 18, Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 408 2, N/A Surya Citra Media SCMA 2,500 36, Siloam International Hospital SILO 10,800 17, PROPERTY Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,610 30, Adhi Karya ADHI 1,770 6, Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 340 6, Ciputra Development CTRA 1,160 21, Lippo Karawaci LPKR , Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 2,450 15, Pakuwon Jati PWON , Summarecon Agung SMRA , Wijaya Karya WIKA 1,645 14, Waskita Karya WSKT 1,955 26, MISCELLANEOUS Astra International ASII 8, , Source: Bloomberg, *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 7

8 Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 1, KAEF IJ , Mining 1, NIKL IJ , Basic-Industry BBTN IJ , Miscellaneous Industry 1, WSKT IJ , Consumer Goods 2, CPIN IJ , Property & Construction TKIM IJ , Infrastructure 1, TBIG IJ , Finance 1, WIKA IJ , Trade POOL IJ , Composite 6, SMSM IJ , Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close UNVR IJ ,300 BBRI IJ ,380 KAEF IJ ,740 BBCA IJ ,975 CPIN IJ 4.5 3,020 HMSP IJ ,320 TPIA IJ 1.8 5,550 BMRI IJ ,350 BBTN IJ 5.0 3,550 EMTK IJ ,200 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 3:00am USD Consumer Credit m/m 17.4B 20.8B 4:45am NZD Manufacturing Sales q/q 3.9% 6:50am JPY Final GDP q/q 0.4% 0.3% 6:50am JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.8% 2.8% 6:50am JPY Current Account 1.93T 1.84T 6:50am JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y 0.1% 0.1% 7:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.8% 0.9% Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -6.1% 7:30am AUD Home Loans m/m -2.2% -2.3% Tentative CNY Trade Balance 231B 254B Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 34.9B 38.2B 12:00pm JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment Tentative EUR Italian Bank Holiday 2:00pm EUR German Trade Balance 22.0B 21.8B 2:45pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance -76.3B 2:45pm EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.1% 0.6% 4:30pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.1% 0.7% 4:30pm GBP Goods Trade Balance -11.5B -11.3B 4:30pm GBP Construction Output m/m 0.2% -1.6% 4:30pm GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 2.8% 4:30pm GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.0% 0.7% 8:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.5% 8:15pm CAD Housing Starts 214K 223K 8:30pm CAD Capacity Utilization Rate 84.8% 85.0% 8:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.0% 8:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 198K 261K 8:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 4.1% 4.1% 10:00pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment :00pm USD Final Wholesale Inventories m/m -0.4% -0.4% 10:00pm USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.5% Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory 8

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