Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief

Transcription

1 Asiamoney s Finance Asia's Research 1 February 2016 Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief IDX: 4,615 (+0.3%) Turnover: IDR6.7tn (+63.2%) Foreign Net BUY IDR1.4tn (+16,213%) CORPORATE FLASH ACE Hardware (ACES IJ): Limited upside Analyst: Bagus Adi Yoga Prawira Downgrading to HOLD with unchanged TP of IDR875 Higher SSSG backed by year-end sale Outlook: Soft 1H16 demand with margin stability To see the full version of this report, please click here TODAY S NEWS POLITICS Deputy AGO resigned ECONOMICS MoF: Government s debt paying ability decreased Govt: To distribute IDR1.2tn funds to regional governments BI: Forecasts 4.8% economic growth in PLN: Lower electricity tariff in February 2016; Cutting 900VA subsidy INDUSTRY SOE Minister: 8 sectors to receive IDR147tn PSO Honda expects improved 2016 sales volumes despite flat market outlook Finance Minister: Government not to provide financial guarantee for HSR project FSA: Multi-finance to disburse subsidized micro loans (KUR) in 1Q16 Business Supervisory Commission (KPPU) to revise regulations in the poultry industry Automotive: Anti-dumping duty on steel products to be excluded CORPORATE EXCL: Higher than expected 4Q15 net profit of IDR481bn, +40% q-q & 7.6x y- y BMRI to disburse up to IDR1tn in working loans to KLBF Brewin Mesa invests IDR1.3tn in Alam Sutera BJTM to disburse dividends of up to IDR641.5bn WSKT targets 2016 revenues to reach IDR27tn while net earnings to hit IDR2tn PPRO offers IDR60bn MTN MNC media group to sell stake in SVN ANTM: FY15 unaudited revenue of IDR10.6tn, up 12% y-y, boosted by gold sales ADRO s production reached 51.46mn mt, down 8% y-y ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 15F 16F 17F 15F 16F 17F Cur acc bal (%GDP) (2.0) (2.3) (2.3) Op.prof.gwt.(%) (2.1) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.7) (2.7) (2.7) EPS growth (%) (7.5) GDP growth (%y-y) P/E (x) Private spending (%) PEG (x) (3.9) Investment (%y-y) EV/EBITDA (x) Total exports (%y-y) P/BV (x) Total imports (%y-y) (4.1) P/BV exc Inflation (%y-y) Div. Yield (%) IDR/USD 14,000 14,500 14,500 Net gearing (%) BI rate (% p.a.) ROAE (%) Brent Oil (Usd/bbl) ROAA (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROIC (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 19, (10.2) (20.0) IDX (Indonesia) 4, (12.3) KLCI (Mal.) 1, (1.5) (6.4) KOSPI (Korea) 1, (2.5) (2.0) Nikkei (Japan) 17, (8.0) (0.5) PCOMP (Phil.) 6, (3.8) (12.2) SENSEX (India) 24, (5.1) (16.5) SET (Thailand) 1, (18.3) SHCOMP (China) 2, (22.6) (16.1) SHENZHEN (China) 1, (26.8) 10.5 STI (Singapore) 2, (8.8) (23.1) TWSE (Taiwan) 8, (3.1) (14.3) VNI (Vietnam) (5.8) (6.5) Europe, USA and Ems CAC 40 (France) 4, (4.7) (4.1) DAX (Germany) 9, (8.8) (8.4) Dow Jones (USA) 16, (5.5) (4.1) FTSE 100 (UK) 6, (2.5) (9.9) IBOV (Brazil) 40, (6.8) (13.9) MEXBOL (Mexico) 43, NGSEINDX (Nigeria) 23, (16.5) (19.1) Nasdaq (USA) 4, (7.9) (0.5) RTSI (Russia) (1.6) 1.1 S&P 500 (USA) 1, (5.1) (2.7) XU100 (Turkey) 73, (17.4) Source: Bloomberg ETF, ADR & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % EEM US (USD) (5.0) (21.7) EIDO US (USD) (18.6) TLK US (IDR) 3, Como Index (USD) (5.3) (23.8) Coal (USD/t) 49.6 (2.6) (2.1) (21.0) Corn (USD/mtn) Coffee (USD/t) 2, (4.3) (24.1) Copper (USD/t) 4,541.5 (0.3) (3.4) (15.7) Cotton (USD/t) 1,347.7 (0.4) (3.4) 2.6 CPO Rott (USD/t) (0.4) 2.9 Gold (USD/oz.) 1, (12.9) Iron ore (USD/mtn) 41.5 (0.5) (4.4) (35.4) Milk (USD/cwt) (15.8) Nickel (USD/t) 8,545.0 (0.3) (1.4) (41.9) Oil Brent (USD/barrel) (3.7) (32.3) Rice (IDR/kg) 4, (2.8) 1.5 Rubber (USD/t) (4.4) (22.1) Silver (USD/oz) (17.2) Soybean oil (USD/t) Steel (USD/t) (0.0) 0.7 (23.2) Sugar (USD/t) (2.1) (11.3) (14.4) Tins (USD/t) 14, (22.0) Wheat (USD/t) (12.0) Source: Bloomberg, CEIC CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/1USD EUR/1USD IDR/1USD 13,776 13, (8.8) JPY/1USD (0.9) (3.1) SGD/1USD (0.4) (5.1) JIBOR (%) (2.2) (0.4) BI rate (%) (0.3) (0.5) TD 1 month (%) (0.0) (0.3) CDS (bps) Source: Bloomberg Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 Research POLITICS Deputy AGO resigned Attorney General s Deputy Andhi Nirwanto has decided to retire and resign from his position at the age of 60 years old. Based on Act no.16/2004, the General s Deputy still has two years remaining in office. (viva.co.id) ECONOMICS MoF: Government s debt paying ability decreased Indonesian primary balance (State budget balance, excluding debt related payment) recorded another deficit in. MoF s data indicated primary balance deficit up 203.8% y-y to IDR136.1tn (: IDR66.8tn). (Kompas). Bahana comment: It is in line with the 2.58% state budget deficit in or IDR292.1tn. We expect the state budget deficit to widen to 2.7% of GDP in 2016 or IDR333.4tn due to low oil price, tax holidays and lower tax rates. Govt: To distribute IDR1.2tn funds to regional governments Some regional governments will receive additional regional transfers of up to IDR1.2tn this year due to insufficient payment of revenue sharing and property tax in 2011, and. Government will disburse the fund in February (Kontan) BI: Forecasts 4.8% economic growth in BI estimated the economy grew by 4.8% in, slightly higher than the MoF's forecast of 4.74%. BI's Deputy Governor, Perry Warjiyo stated that the economy is expected to grow at a better pace in 2016, at 5.2%. (Investor Daily). Bahana comment: We expect economic growth at 4.72%, and 2016 at 5.1% PLN: Lower electricity tariff in February 2016; Cutting 900VA subsidy State Electricity Company (PLN), electricity state-owned company, stated that it will lower the non-subsidy tariff of IDR11-17/ kwh due to drop in Indonesian Crude Price (ICP). PLN s Marketing Head, Benny Marbun stated that low voltage tariff will be lowered to IDR17/kWh, medium voltage tariff will drop to IDR13/kWh, while high voltage tariff will decrease to IDR14/kWh. Separately, PLN s Chairman Sofyan Basir stated that subsidy of 900VA will be repealed in July (beritasatu.com, sindonews.com) Exhibit 1. Current electricity tariff Type Capacity Type of voltage Jan-16 Feb-16 (IDR/kWh) Changes 1 hold (R1) 1,300VA Low 1, , % 2 hold (R1) 2,200VA Low 1, , % 3 hold (R2) 3,500VA 5,000VA Low 1, , % 4 hold (R3) >6,600VA Low 1, , % 5 Business (B2) 6,600VA 200,000VA Low 1, , % 6 Business (B3) >200,000VA Medium 1, % 7 Industry (I3) >200,000VA Medium 1, % 8 Industry (I4) >30,000,000VA High % 9 Government (P1) 6,600VA - 200,000VA Low 1, , % 10 Government (P2) >200,000VA Medium 1, % 11 Government (P3) Low 1, , % 12 Special services 1, , % Source: PLN PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily

3 Research INDUSTRY SOE Minister: 8 sectors to receive IDR147tn PSO According the SOE Minister, Rini Soemarmo, SOEs in 8 sectors will receive IDR147.01tn in public services obligations (PSOs) in 2016, which is lower than the PSO of IDR157.9tn. The 8 sectors expected to receive the PSOs are LPG at IDR50.41tn, electricity at IDR38.39tn, fertilizer at IDR30.06tn, seeds at IDR2.03tn, affordable rice for underprivileged people (raskin) at IDR20.31tn, transportation at IDR4.89tn, and post at IDR341bn. (imq21.com) Honda expects improved 2016 sales volumes despite flat market outlook Despite flat industry outlook, Honda Prospect Motor, the sole distributor of 4W Honda, expects 2016 sales volumes to reach 180k units, up 6% y-y, according to Marketing Director Jonfis Fandy. Honda expects to penetrate the automotive market through several popular products such as newly launched BRV, Mobilio, HRV, Jazz, CRV and Brio. (detik.com) Finance Minister: Government not to provide financial guarantee for HSR project Bambang Brodjonegoro, the Minister of Finance, assured that the USD5.6bn Jakarta-Bandung high speed railway (HSR) project would not receive any financial guarantee from the government. On a separate occasion, the Minister of State Owned Enterprises, Rini Soemarno, also stated that the HSR project would follow Presidential Decree No.107/ which stated that the project is a pure business-to-business scheme. Previously, several members from the Regional Representatives Council (DPD) have questioned the inclusion of the HSR project in the Presidential Decree No.3/2016 which would allow the government to guarantee various strategic national projects. Meanwhile, Kereta Cepat Indonesia Cina (KCIC) as the HSR project s owner, stated that it is currently negotiating with the Transportation Ministry on several points of the concession permit including length of concession periods, special rights, termination clauses and concessions guarantee. (Koran Tempo, Kontan) FSA: Multi-finance to disburse subsidized micro loans (KUR) in 1Q16 The Financial Services Authority (FSA) stated that, multi-finance companies would participate in subsidized micro loans (KUR) disbursement up to IDR1.2tn in the 1Q16. Note that, currently there are 5 multi-finance companies that participate in KUR disbursement: Mega Finance, BCA Finance, Adira Finance, MNC Finance and Spetra. (Investor Daily) Business Supervisory Commission (KPPU) to revise regulations in the poultry industry Following the recent surge in chicken price, KPPU is planning to change some laws and regulations to protect consumers and smaller poultry companies. Fearing of hurting the smaller companies, KPPU thinks that private poultry companies should not be allowed to sell chicken to traditional and retail markets. Thus, the KPPU recommends bigger players to focus on exports despite overseas markets for chicken are still low currently. (Kontan) Automotive: Anti-dumping duty on steel products to be excluded The government currently has been reviewing the automotive industry demand to exclude anti-dumping duty on steel products according to Gaikindo s (4W association) chairman. In addition, until now, the national automotive steel demand is around 1mn tons of sheets each year with the majority of manufacturers importing steel from countries that are affected by anti-dumping duties. (Bisnis Indonesia) CORPORATE EXCL: Higher than expected 4Q15 net profit of IDR481bn, +40% q-q & 7.6x y-y On the back of improved EBITDA margin and higher than expected forex gain, XL Axiata (EXCL IJ-BUY- IDR3,675-TP:IDR3,900) booked higher than expected 4Q15 net profit of IDR481bn (127% of our 4Q15F), +40% q-q and +666% y-y, resulting in net loss of IDR25bn. On the top line, EXCL booked 4Q15 revenue of IDR5.95tn (102% of our 4Q15F), +2% q-q and +1% y-y, resulting in revenue of IDR22.9tn, -2.5% y-y, representing 100% of our and 99% of consensus full-year estimates. On the margin front, EXCL booked improved 4Q15 EBITDA margin of 39.0%, resulting in EBITDA margin of 36.7%, higher than our forecast of 36.4%. More details to follow post a conference call with the company later this afternoon. EXCL IJ 4Q15 Result summary q-q y-y 4Q15/ y-y / / (IDRb) 4Q14 3Q15 4Q15 (%) (%) 4Q15F (%) F Cons PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3

4 Research Sales 5,919 5,831 5, ,876 (2.5) Operating expense (5,371) (5,315) (5,515) (21,618 (0.8) Operating profit (14.9) (19.9) 1,258 (24.5) EBITDA 2,300 2,196 2, ,393 (2.7) Net int. (186) (185) (555) (1,080) (22.6) Forex gain/(loss) (359) (1,952) 943 (148.3) (362.3) (2,521) 94.7 Other 59 1,562 (148) (109.5) (352.8) 1,713 (3,985.7 Pretax profit 62 (60) 678 (1, (631) (41.1) 86.6 Taxation (197) (148.7) (19, Minority interest Net profit (25) (97.2) 19.8 (38.3) Ratio analysis 4Q14 3Q15 4Q15 F 2016F 2017F EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Pretax margin (%) 1.0 (1.0) 11.4 (4.6) (2.8) (3.2) Net margin (%) (3.8) (0.1) (0.6) Inventory days Receivable days Payable Days Total cash (IDRb) 6,951 1,383 3,312 6,951 3,312 3,146 3, ,429.8 Total debt (IDRb) 23,408 27,049 18,564 23,408 18,564 26,628 22, ,128. Net gearing (%) Source: Company, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates BMRI to disburse up to IDR1tn in working loans to KLBF Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ-BUY-IDR9,600-TP:9,700) will provide up to IDR1tn in working loans to Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ-HOLD-IDR1,335-TP:1,480). In addition, BMRI will also provide a treasury line facility worth of USD8mn to meet KLBF s foreign exchange requirement in the procurement of raw materials for drug manufacturing. Note that, BMRI has disbursed loans up to IDR2.5tn to pharmaceutical sector in (+40.8% y-y). Previously, Kalbe Farma announced that the company has allocated capex of IDR1-1.5tn in 2016 (Bahana: IDR1tn). The borrowings from BMRI will help KLBF finance its cash flow in 2016 to provide medicine and healthcare products. (Kontan,Bisnis Indonesia, Bahana) Brewin Mesa invests IDR1.3tn in Alam Sutera Brewin Mesa Development, an investment company and real estate developer, plans to ground break its two apartment towers in June 2016 on 85,000sqm area in Alam Sutera, South Tangerang. According to Brewin Mesa Development s President Director, Bill Cheng, the project is worth IDR1.3tn, with 60% of the funds obtained from bank loans and the rest from internal funds. The project is targeted to finish in 2018 with the price of around IDR1.3bn/unit. (Bisnis Indonesia) BJTM to disburse dividends of up to IDR641.5bn Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur (BJTM IJ-REDUCE-IDR450-TP:420) will disburse dividends of up to IDR641.5bn or the equivalence of IDR43 per share (: IDR41.9 per share). Note that BJTM has reported FY15 net profit of around IDR885.7bn (-5.8% y-y) (Bahana: IDR885bn vs Consensus: IDR884.5bn). (Detik) WSKT targets 2016 revenues to reach IDR27tn while net earnings to hit IDR2tn Muhammad Choliq, the CEO of Waskita Karya (WSKT IJ-BUY-IDR1,735-TP:IDR1,975), stated that he expects WSKT s 2016 net revenues to hit IDR27tn and net profit to reach IDR2tn supported by toll roads projects booked previously. WSKT also targets 2016 new contracts to double to IDR60tn with the company currently eyeing to participate in the development of 117km Kayuagung-Palembang-Betung toll road and the next stage of Sumatra s power grid project. In, WSKT booked revenue of IDR14.1tn (+37% y-y) and net earnings of IDR1.04tn (+107% y-y). (Investor Daily, The Jakarta Post) Bahana comment: Although we still retain our conservative forecast on WSKT s 2016 targets (Bahana 2016F revenues: IDR20.6tn and net earnings: IDR1.1tn), we believe that the above higher-than-expected figures and strong order books in should provide upside to our numbers. PPRO offers IDR60bn MTN PP Properti (PPRO IJ-HOLD-IDR185-TP:IDR180) has issued IDR60bn A series Medium-Term Notes (MTN) on 29 January 2016 with fixed coupons set at 10.85% per annum. (kontan.co.id) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4

5 Research MNC media group to sell stake in SVN MNC media group is planning to sell up to 20% of its stake in Sky Vision Network (SVN), a holding company of pay TV, IP TV, OTT and broadband business operated under MNC Sky Vision (MSKY) and MNC Kabel Mediacom (MKM). The company is currently in discussions with several foreign investors, mostly from Europe and other parts of Asia. The sell down is expected to be completed before the end of 1H16. (Jakarta Post) ANTM: FY15 unaudited revenue of IDR10.6tn, up 12% y-y, boosted by gold sales Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ-BUY-IDR329-TP:IDR764) booked FY15 unaudited revenue of IDR10.6tn, up 12% y-y boosted by gold sales, 69% of total revenues, with 42% y-y increase in gold volumes to 14.2mt. On production, gold volumes decreased 6% y-y to 2.2mt. On ferronickel, production increased 2% to 17.2k mt while its sales volumes rose to 18.6k mt, accounting for 26% to ANTM s total revenues. (Company). Bahana comment: ANTM s revenue was 11% below our forecasts due to lower-than-expected gold volumes, and we will revisit our projection accordingly. ADRO s production reached 51.46mn mt, down 8% y-y Adaro Energy s (ADRO IJ-BUY-IDR525-TP:IDR700) coal production reached 51.46mn mt, up 8% y-y while its average stripping ratio was down 9% y-y to 5.19x. Entering 2016, ADRO provided guidance for total cash cost of between USD26-USD28/mt, capex range of USD75mn-USD100mn, while production is expected at 52mn mt-54mn mt. (Company). Bahana comment: ADRO s production is below our expectation by 4%, while ADRO s 2016 production guideline is in line with our expectation of 54mn mt. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5

6 Research BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET PRICE Up/(Downside)(%) 01/29/ /28/2016 CHANGE (%) Bank Danamon Indonesia BDMN IJ BUY 3,400 (16.3) 4,060 3, Xl Axiata EXCL IJ BUY 4, ,675 3, Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG IJ HOLD 6, ,300 5, Indomobil Sukses Internasional IMAS IJ HOLD 2,000 (7.0) 2,150 2, Vale Indonesia INCO IJ BUY 2, ,445 1, Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF IJ BUY 6, ,200 5, United Tractors UNTR IJ HOLD 16,000 (8.0) 17,400 16, Semen Indonesia SMGR IJ HOLD 10,600 (4.1) 11,050 10, Adhi Karya ADHI IJ BUY 2, ,550 2, Astra International ASII IJ REDUCE 5,550 (14.0) 6,450 6, Bukit Asam PTBA IJ BUY 7, ,450 4, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS IJ REDUCE Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM IJ BUY 3, ,340 3, Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS IJ HOLD Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat MIKA IJ SELL 1,900 (12.6) 2,175 2, Aneka Tambang ANTM IJ BUY Pakuwon Jati PWON IJ HOLD Blue Bird BIRD IJ REDUCE 4,700 (19.3) 5,825 5, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA IJ BUY Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG IJ REDUCE 5, ,810 4, Medco Energi Internasional MEDC IJ BUY 1, Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP IJ HOLD 290 (9.9) Bank Jawa Timur BJTM IJ REDUCE 420 (6.7) Bank Mandiri BMRI IJ BUY 9, ,600 9, Adi Sarana Armada ASSA IJ BUY Adaro Energy ADRO IJ BUY Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ REDUCE 1, ,055 1, Surya Citra Media SCMA IJ HOLD 3, ,700 2, Matahari Putra Prima MPPA IJ BUY 2, ,670 1, Jasa Marga JSMR IJ BUY 6, ,750 5, Sampoerna Agro SGRO IJ HOLD 1,800 (0.6) 1,810 1, Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA IJ BUY Wijaya Karya WIKA IJ BUY 3, ,800 2, Gudang Garam GGRM IJ BUY 65, ,350 58, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN IJ BUY 3, ,345 3, Ciputra Property CTRP IJ REDUCE PP Property PPRO IJ HOLD 180 (2.7) Multipolar MLPL IJ BUY Indosat ISAT IJ BUY 6, ,475 5, Soechi Lines SOCI IJ BUY Lippo Cikarang LPCK IJ BUY 8, ,050 6, Agung Podomoro Land APLN IJ REDUCE 220 (29.0) Krakatau Steel KRAS IJ REDUCE 275 (12.1) Alam Sutera Realty ASRI IJ REDUCE 300 (6.5) Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE IJ BUY 2, ,730 1, Indonesian Stock Exchange JCI 4,615 4, Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS IJ REDUCE 2, ,405 2, Garuda Indonesia GIAA IJ BUY Cardig Aero Services CASS IJ HOLD 1, ,060 1, Gajah Tunggal GJTL IJ BUY Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional BTPN IJ REDUCE 2, ,150 2, Waskita Karya WSKT IJ BUY 1, ,735 1, Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI IJ BUY 4, ,745 3, Mayora Indah MYOR IJ BUY 31, ,000 27, Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC IJ BUY 2, ,760 1, Timah TINS IJ REDUCE 411 (21.0) Merdeka Copper Gold MDKA IJ BUY 2, ,000 2, London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP IJ BUY 1, ,425 1, Dharma Satya Nusantara DSNG IJ BUY Austindo Nusantara Jaya ANJT IJ REDUCE 1,000 (41.2) 1,700 1, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA IJ BUY 550 (25.2) Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR IJ BUY 5, ,495 4, Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI IJ BUY 13, ,225 11,250 (0.2) Pelayaran Tempuran Emas TMAS IJ BUY 3, ,890 1,895 (0.3) AKR Corporindo AKRA IJ BUY 7,000 (4.8) 7,350 7,375 (0.3) Summarecon Agung SMRA IJ BUY 1, ,445 1,450 (0.3) Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI IJ BUY 1, ,350 1,355 (0.4) Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ BUY 14, ,100 13,150 (0.4) Bank Jawa Barat dan Banten BJBR IJ BUY 1, (0.6) Semen Baturaja SMBR IJ HOLD 300 (1.6) (0.7) Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE IJ BUY 1, (0.7) Bank Bukopin BBKP IJ HOLD (0.8) Harum Energy HRUM IJ REDUCE 500 (19.4) (0.8) Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ REDUCE 14,300 (16.3) 17,075 17,225 (0.9) Tunas Baru Lampung TBLA IJ BUY (1.0) Sido Muncul SIDO IJ HOLD 480 (4.0) (1.0) Wijaya Karya Beton WTON IJ BUY 1, ,000 (1.0) Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ BUY 5, ,910 4,960 (1.0) Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP IJ BUY 4, ,900 3,940 (1.0) Sri Rejeki Isman SRIL IJ BUY (1.1) Express Transindo Utama TAXI IJ REDUCE (1.1) Hero Supermarket HERO IJ REDUCE 650 (38.7) 1,060 1,075 (1.4) Electronic City ECII IJ REDUCE (1.4) Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN IJ BUY 1, ,365 1,385 (1.4) Unilever Indonesia UNVR IJ BUY 46, ,700 37,250 (1.5) Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP IJ REDUCE 16,400 (16.8) 19,700 20,000 (1.5) Anabatic Technologies ATIC IJ BUY (1.5) Kalbe Farma KLBF IJ HOLD 1, ,335 1,360 (1.8) Ace Hardware Indonesia ACES IJ BUY (1.8) Kimia Farma KAEF IJ BUY 1, ,050 1,070 (1.9) Erajaya Swasembada ERAA IJ BUY (1.9) Ciputra Development CTRA IJ BUY 1, ,270 1,295 (1.9) Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates BEST IJ REDUCE (2.0) Holcim Indonesia SMCB IJ REDUCE (2.2) Siloam International Hospitals SILO IJ BUY 14, ,025 9,250 (2.4) Total Bangun Persada TOTL IJ BUY (2.5) Matahari Department Store LPPF IJ BUY 19, ,000 16,425 (2.6) Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP IJ BUY 16, ,450 14,850 (2.7) HM Sampoerna HMSP IJ BUY 115, , ,000 (3.3) Puradelta Lestari DMAS IJ BUY (3.3) Media Nusantara Citra MNCN IJ BUY 2, ,190 1,240 (4.0) Malindo Feedmill MAIN IJ BUY 1, ,330 1,395 (4.7) J Resources PSAB IJ BUY 2, ,015 (5.4) Source: Bloomberg, Bahana estimates When a report covers six or more subject companies please access important disclosures for Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited at or contact your investment representative or Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited at Level 26, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong. 8Hong Kong PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6

7 Research BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Weekly) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET PRICE Up/(Downside)(%) 01/29/ /25/2016 CHANGE (%) Bank Danamon Indonesia BDMN IJ BUY 3,400 (16.3) 4,060 3, Garuda Indonesia GIAA IJ BUY Kimia Farma KAEF IJ BUY 1, , HM Sampoerna HMSP IJ BUY 115, ,500 90, Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI IJ BUY 1, ,350 1, Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG IJ HOLD 6, ,300 5, Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP IJ HOLD 290 (9.9) Multipolar MLPL IJ BUY Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA IJ BUY 550 (25.2) Astra International ASII IJ REDUCE 5,550 (14.0) 6,450 5, London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP IJ BUY 1, ,425 1, Krakatau Steel KRAS IJ REDUCE 275 (12.1) Blue Bird BIRD IJ REDUCE 4,700 (19.3) 5,825 5, Pelayaran Tempuran Emas TMAS IJ BUY 3, ,890 1, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS IJ REDUCE Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF IJ BUY 6, ,200 5, Aneka Tambang ANTM IJ BUY Semen Indonesia SMGR IJ HOLD 10,600 (4.1) 11,050 10, United Tractors UNTR IJ HOLD 16,000 (8.0) 17,400 16, Indosat ISAT IJ BUY 6, ,475 5, Bank Jawa Timur BJTM IJ REDUCE 420 (6.7) Gudang Garam GGRM IJ BUY 65, ,350 55, Semen Baturaja SMBR IJ HOLD 300 (1.6) Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR IJ BUY 5, ,200 3, Ciputra Property CTRP IJ REDUCE Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM IJ BUY 3, ,340 3, Malindo Feedmill MAIN IJ BUY 1, ,330 1, AKR Corporindo AKRA IJ BUY 7,000 (4.8) 7,350 7, Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE IJ BUY 2, ,730 1, Timah TINS IJ REDUCE 411 (21.0) Mayora Indah MYOR IJ BUY 31, ,000 26, Dharma Satya Nusantara DSNG IJ BUY Indonesian Stock Exchange JCI 4,615 4, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP IJ REDUCE 16,400 (16.8) 19,700 19, Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ REDUCE 14,300 (16.3) 17,075 16, Unilever Indonesia UNVR IJ BUY 46, ,700 35, Bank Jawa Barat dan Banten BJBR IJ BUY 1, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN IJ BUY 3, ,345 3, Adhi Karya ADHI IJ BUY 2, ,550 2, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA IJ BUY Pakuwon Jati PWON IJ HOLD Vale Indonesia INCO IJ BUY 2, ,445 1, Bank Mandiri BMRI IJ BUY 9, ,600 9, Express Transindo Utama TAXI IJ REDUCE Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI IJ BUY 4, ,745 3, Adaro Energy ADRO IJ BUY Erajaya Swasembada ERAA IJ BUY Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ REDUCE 1, ,055 1, Austindo Nusantara Jaya ANJT IJ REDUCE 1,000 (38.3) 1,620 1, Sampoerna Agro SGRO IJ HOLD 1,800 (0.6) 1,810 1, Matahari Putra Prima MPPA IJ BUY 2, ,670 1, Gajah Tunggal GJTL IJ BUY Jasa Marga JSMR IJ BUY 6, ,750 5, Ace Hardware Indonesia ACES IJ BUY Lippo Cikarang LPCK IJ BUY 8, ,050 5, Waskita Karya WSKT IJ BUY 1, ,735 1, Adi Sarana Armada ASSA IJ BUY Puradelta Lestari DMAS IJ BUY Tunas Baru Lampung TBLA IJ BUY Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates BEST IJ REDUCE Xl Axiata EXCL IJ BUY 4, ,675 3, Ciputra Development CTRA IJ BUY 1, ,270 1, Anabatic Technologies ATIC IJ BUY Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA IJ BUY Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ BUY 14, ,100 13, Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN IJ BUY 1, ,365 1, Medco Energi Internasional MEDC IJ BUY 1, Agung Podomoro Land APLN IJ REDUCE 220 (29.0) Summarecon Agung SMRA IJ BUY 1, ,445 1, Bukit Asam PTBA IJ BUY 7, ,450 4, Indomobil Sukses Internasional IMAS IJ HOLD 2,000 (7.0) 2,150 2, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional BTPN IJ REDUCE 2, ,150 2, Sri Rejeki Isman SRIL IJ BUY Sido Muncul SIDO IJ HOLD 480 (4.0) PP Property PPRO IJ HOLD 180 (2.7) Merdeka Copper Gold MDKA IJ BUY 2, ,000 2,005 (0.2) Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI IJ BUY 13, ,225 11,275 (0.4) Wijaya Karya WIKA IJ BUY 3, ,800 2,820 (0.7) Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE IJ BUY 1, (0.7) Surya Citra Media SCMA IJ HOLD 3, ,700 2,720 (0.7) Siloam International Hospitals SILO IJ BUY 17, ,025 9,100 (0.8) Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat MIKA IJ SELL 1,900 (12.6) 2,175 2,195 (0.9) Alam Sutera Realty ASRI IJ REDUCE 300 (6.5) (0.9) Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP IJ BUY 4, ,900 3,940 (1.0) Matahari Department Store LPPF IJ BUY 19, ,000 16,200 (1.2) Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP IJ BUY 16, ,450 14,650 (1.4) Hero Supermarket HERO IJ REDUCE 650 (38.7) 1,060 1,075 (1.4) Kalbe Farma KLBF IJ HOLD 1, ,335 1,355 (1.5) Total Bangun Persada TOTL IJ BUY (1.7) Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ BUY 5, ,910 5,000 (1.8) Soechi Lines SOCI IJ BUY (2.1) Holcim Indonesia SMCB IJ REDUCE (2.2) Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC IJ BUY 2, ,760 1,800 (2.2) Bank Bukopin BBKP IJ HOLD (3.1) Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS IJ REDUCE 2, ,405 2,490 (3.4) Electronic City ECII IJ REDUCE (3.4) Harum Energy HRUM IJ REDUCE 500 (19.4) (3.9) Wijaya Karya Beton WTON IJ BUY 1, ,030 (3.9) Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG IJ REDUCE 5, ,810 5,075 (5.2) Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS IJ HOLD (8.7) Media Nusantara Citra MNCN IJ BUY 2, ,190 1,320 (9.8) J Resources PSAB IJ BUY 2, ,100 (12.7) Cardig Aero Services CASS IJ HOLD 1, ,060 1,340 (20.9) Source: Bloomberg, Bahana estimates When a report covers six or more subject companies please access important disclosures for Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited at or contact your investment representative or Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited at Level 26, One Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong. 8Hong Kong PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7

8 Research Ticker Rating Price TP Shares Free float Mkt cap 3M avg to ROAA (%) Revenue (IDRb) Opt. profit (IDRb) Net profit (IDRb) EPS growth (%) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Net gearing (%) ROAE (%) ROIC (%) 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) F 2017F 2016F 2017F 12, ,614 76,230 1,969 2,577 1,724 2, (102.4) (87.9) (78.0) AVIATION N GIAA IJ* BUY , , ,708 74,084 1,474 2,005 1,582 2, na (125.2) (108.1) (97.2) CASS IJ HOLD 1,060 1,250 2, , ,905 2, AUTOMOTIVE UW 268, , ,701 19,678 21,842 17,779 20, ASII IJ REDUCE 6,450 5,550 40, , , ,196 18,498 20,496 17,591 19, IMAS IJ HOLD 2,150 2,000 2, , ,770 21, na na GJTL IJ BUY , , ,932 15,091 1,031 1, na na BANKS N 1,002, , , , ,941 88,704 98, na na na na na na na BBCA IJ BUY 13,100 14,700 24, , ,850 58,014 24,585 26,964 19,883 21, na na na na na na na BBRI IJ BUY 11,225 13,000 24, , ,440 81,052 31,205 34,621 26,815 29, na na na na na na na BMRI IJ BUY 9,600 9,700 23, , ,286 77,120 26,665 30,171 20,330 22, na na na na na na na BBNI IJ BUY 4,910 5,700 18, , ,951 45,725 13,232 14,595 11,022 12, na na na na na na na BDMN IJ BUY 4,060 3,400 9, , ,026 23,106 4,017 4,681 2,998 3, na na na na na na na BTPN IJ REDUCE 2,150 2,350 5, , ,489 10,678 2,665 2,817 1,987 2, na na na na na na na BBTN IJ BUY 1,365 1,520 10, , ,816 10,234 2,686 3,039 2,084 2, na na na na na na na BJBR IJ BUY 870 1,020 9, , ,898 7,494 1,599 1,790 1,368 1, na na na na na na na BJTM IJ REDUCE , , ,052 4,518 1,398 1,575 1,023 1, na na na na na na na BBKP IJ HOLD , , ,832 5,423 1,528 1,687 1,194 1, na na na na na na na CEMENT UW 147, ,706 59,100 11,320 11,840 9,245 9, SMGR IJ HOLD 11,050 10,600 5, , ,486 28,611 5,594 5,873 4,503 4, INTP IJ REDUCE 19,700 16,400 3, , ,073 18,951 4,834 5,084 4,353 4, nc nc nc SMCB IJ REDUCE , , ,619 9, na na SMBR IJ HOLD , , ,528 1, (17.5) (16.0) nc nc nc COAL UW 99, , ,490 17,610 15,141 12,401 10,797 (8.4) (12.9) UNTR IJ HOLD 17,400 16,000 3, , ,619 51,535 8,192 8,437 6,383 6,395 (6.8) nc nc nc ADRO IJ* BUY , , ,836 38,626 5,264 3,570 2,856 1,960 (1.1) (33.7) ITMG IJ* REDUCE 4,810 5,200 1, , ,323 21,830 1, (35.9) (44.9) nc nc nc PTBA IJ BUY 4,450 7,800 2, , ,832 15,981 2,774 2,547 2,198 1, (9.4) nc nc nc HRUM IJ* REDUCE , , ,518 3, (42) (28) (95) (1,000) 289 (68.9) (17.7) (10.4) (19.1) (0.9) nc nc nc (0.7) (2.4) (0.5) (1.8) (2.5) (9.7) CONS. & TOLL ROADS N 118, , ,429 11,084 12,947 5,374 6, JSMR IJ BUY 5,750 6,250 6, , ,703 9,631 3,351 3,669 1,445 1, WIKA IJ BUY 2,800 3,100 6, , ,875 17,597 1,718 2, PTPP IJ BUY 3,900 4,300 4, , ,378 24,313 2,223 2, , WSKT IJ BUY 1,735 1,975 13, , ,580 24,605 1,918 2,148 1,116 1, WTON IJ BUY 990 1,100 8, , ,160 5, nc nc ADHI IJ BUY 2,550 2,550 3, , ,680 19,059 1,155 1, (17.4) nc TOTL IJ BUY , , ,618 3, nc nc nc CONSUMER - DISCRE. N 142, ,783 95,235 9,998 11,515 7,422 8, SCMA IJ HOLD 2,700 3,250 14, , ,573 4,983 2,192 2,408 1,674 1, nc nc nc LPPF IJ BUY 16,000 19,800 2, , ,872 12,699 2,868 3,346 2,219 2, nc nc nc na na MNCN IJ BUY 1,190 2,000 14, , ,006 7,519 2,724 2,936 1,648 1, MPPA IJ BUY 1,670 2,750 5, , ,331 18, nc nc nc ACES IJ REDUCE , , ,086 5, nc nc nc HERO IJ REDUCE 1, , , ,906 19,439 (113) na na RALS IJ REDUCE , , ,038 8, nc nc nc MAPI IJ BUY 3,745 4,750 1, , ,054 16, ECII IJ REDUCE , ,917 2, nc nc nc CONSUMER - STAPLES OW 1,169, , ,517 52,638 59,726 36,512 41, HMSP IJ BUY 103, ,000 4, , , ,376 14,253 16,717 11,161 12, nc nc nc UNVR IJ BUY 36,700 46,000 7, , ,257 45,540 8,943 10,108 6,612 7, (8.6) nc nc GGRM IJ BUY 58,350 65,000 1, , ,916 81,379 9,718 10,751 5,950 6, KLBF IJ HOLD 1,335 1,480 46, , ,300 20,943 2,812 3,080 2,167 2, nc nc nc INDF IJ BUY 6,200 6,600 8, , ,849 78,078 7,610 8,547 3,454 4, ICBP IJ BUY 14,450 16,800 5, , ,481 39,775 4,507 5,071 3,543 4, nc nc nc MYOR IJ BUY 27,000 31, , ,395 18,557 1,773 1,917 1,122 1,218 (3.4) TSPC IJ BUY 1,760 2,000 4, , ,160 10, nc nc nc SIDO IJ HOLD , , ,424 2, nc nc nc ROTI IJ BUY 1,350 1,450 5, , ,693 3, KAEF IJ BUY 1,050 1,350 5, , ,754 6, MIKA IJ SELL 2,175 1,900 14, , ,301 2, nc nc nc SILO IJ BUY 9,025 14,700 1, , ,242 6, INDUSTRIAL ESTATES N 24, ,841 13,561 4,883 5,636 4,065 4, DMAS IJ BUY 9, ,711 1,859 1,705 1, nc nc nc , KIJA IJ BUY , , ,031 3, BEST IJ REDUCE , , (29.3) SSIA IJ BUY , , ,065 6, , LPCK IJ BUY 6,050 8, , ,183 2,589 1,063 1,284 1,152 1, nc nc nc INDUSTRY - Various 13, ,347 39, ,047 (1,640) (1,198) na na na na KRAS IJ* REDUCE , , ,947 0 (1,635) 0 (2,636) (2,513) na na na na na na (11.8) (12.7) (5.1) (4.7) (6.0) (5.6) ATIC IJ BUY , , ,964 3, SRIL IJ BUY , , ,520 11,073 1,812 2, , MLPL IJ BUY , , ,097 25,298 (324) (373) (43) (7) na na na na nc (0.5) (0.1) (0.2) (0.0) (0.6) (0.1) LAND TRANSPORTATION UW 15, ,802 15,612 1,802 1, BIRD IJ REDUCE 5,825 4,700 2, , ,250 6,988 1,298 1, TAXI IJ REDUCE , ,009 1, ASSA IJ BUY , ,552 1, METALS N 38, ,826 32,767 4,061 6,925 1,942 4, INCO IJ* BUY 1,445 2,500 9, , ,920 12,230 2,100 2,891 1,498 2, nc nc nc ANTM IJ BUY , , ,290 14, (172) 228 (63.2) (237.9) na na (1.0) 1.3 (0.6) 0.8 (0.7) 0.9 TINS IJ REDUCE , , ,616 5, (31) (13.2) (319.9) (130.0) (0.6) 0.2 (0.3) 0.2 (0.4) PSAB IJ* BUY 960 2,000 5, , ,788 5,628 1,792 2, , MDKA IJ* BUY 2,000 2,200 3, , (140) 462 (210) 238 na na na na na na (10.2) 11.4 (6.9) 6.5 OIL & GAS N 89, ,087 84,807 12,465 14,902 7,732 9, PGAS IJ* REDUCE 2,405 2,500 24, , ,538 46,380 8,134 9,606 6,060 7, nc nc nc AKRA IJ BUY 7,350 7,000 3, , ,231 27,077 2,043 2,014 1,495 1, MEDC IJ* BUY 705 1,300 3, , ,318 11,351 2,288 3, (150.9) PLANTATIONS N 58, ,373 43,698 5,814 6,469 2,656 3, AALI IJ REDUCE 17,075 14,300 1, , ,873 15,215 1,804 2, , SIMP IJ HOLD , , ,632 13,840 1,534 1, LSIP IJ BUY 1,425 1,500 6, , ,117 4, nc nc nc DSNG IJ BUY , , ,783 4, ANJT IJ* REDUCE 1,700 1,000 3, , ,864 2, na na SGRO IJ HOLD 1,810 1,800 1, , ,105 3, TBLA IJ BUY , , ,237 6, POULTRY N 65, ,643 87,631 6,368 7,750 3,697 4, CPIN IJ BUY 3,345 3,500 16, , ,526 44,678 4,268 5,341 2,810 3, JPFA IJ BUY , , ,937 37,146 1,742 1, na na MAIN IJ BUY 1,330 1,700 2, , ,181 5, PROPERTY UW 137, ,448 57,334 17,929 19,870 11,752 13, BSDE IJ BUY 1,730 2,020 19, , ,856 8,978 3,701 4,248 2,876 3, LPKR IJ REDUCE 1,055 1,130 23, , ,116 10,785 2,841 2,900 1,894 2, PWON IJ HOLD , , ,535 6,483 2,820 3,283 1,946 2, SMRA IJ BUY 1,445 1,820 14, , ,724 7,485 2,146 2,384 1,382 1, CTRA IJ BUY 1,270 1,400 15, , ,141 9,403 2,301 2,523 1,390 1, ASRI IJ REDUCE , , ,667 3,952 1,790 1,938 1,004 1, APLN IJ REDUCE , , ,769 6,132 1,351 1, CTRP IJ REDUCE , , ,934 2, (27.0) PPRO IJ HOLD , , ,707 1, SHIPPING N 5, ,523 3, SOCI IJ BUY , , (4.1) TMAS IJ BUY 1,890 3,000 1, , ,810 2, WINS IJ HOLD , ,551 1, (182.5) TELCOS OW 480, , ,852 48,548 55,773 23,051 28, TLKM IJ BUY 3,340 3, , , , ,788 36,256 41,388 17,773 20, (2.5) EXCL IJ BUY 3,675 4,200 8, , ,798 25,507 1,393 1, ,024 na na na na TBIG IJ HOLD 6,300 6,500 4, , ,801 4,229 2,915 3,243 1,289 1, TOWR IJ BUY 4,495 5,000 10, , ,845 5,315 2,866 3,274 1,591 2, ISAT IJ BUY 5,475 6,800 5, , ,395 30,758 3,799 4,637 1,334 2, TELE IJ BUY 700 1,180 7, , ,578 34, , ERAA IJ BUY , , ,777 21, Market N 3,876,109 2,975 1,857,748 2,048, , , , , Note: *USD reporting OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight Source: Bloomberg, Bahana estimates PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8