Daily Focus. Indonesia. March 6, JSMR Upping the ante on growth
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1 Indonesia Daily Focus Giovanni Dustin To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 6, MSCI Indonesia MSCI EM 1, HANG SENG 29, KOSPI 2, FTSE 7, DJIA 24, NASDAQ 7, Valuation 2018F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY BI 7-Day RR yr yr FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 13, USD/KRW 1, USD/JPY USD/CNY Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI Gold 1, Coal Palm Oil 2, Rubber Nickel 13, Copper 6, Tin 21, JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets (pt) 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 JCI MSCI EM 5,000 01/17 04/17 07/17 10/17 01/18 (pt) 1,250 1, JSMR Upping the ante on growth Road to prosperity The government s commitment to infrastructure development demonstrated through its active role in providing funds, efforts to improve the land acquisition process, and introduction of supportive policies is encouraging. In particular, we believe the Indonesian toll road industry will continue to flourish going forward, backed by the ever-growing 4W market. Short-term challenges remain Jasa Marga (JSMR) aims to operate 1,497km of toll roads by FY20F (vs. 680km in FY17). We expect capex to reach IDR32.2tr in FY18F and IDR44.1tr in FY19F, with total capex of approximately IDR95tr over the next three years. Given the scale of its projects, we forecast JSMR s debt-to-equity ratio to increase from 1.5x in FY17 to 1.8x in FY18F and 2.3x in FY19F. Moreover, we expect its interest coverage ratio (ICR) to decrease from 5.2x in FY17 to 2.7x in FY18F and 2.0x in FY19F. Given that toll road operations are not profitable in the early phases, we think pressure on the firm s EBITDA margin is inevitable. Due to the higher interest burden, negative bottom-line growth also seems unavoidable. but the future looks promising (if solid strategies are implemented) We think it is natural for ROE to decline in the short term, given the nature of capital-intensive businesses when they are in an expansionary mode. EBITDA margin and bottom line should see a gradual rebound after the capex period. Amid the current expansionary period, JSMR will likely rely on improved connectivity and the bi-annual tariff hike scheme to drive top line. Thus, prudent cost control and well-planned financing schemes should act as buffers to absorb the growing interest burden. If JSMR implements such strategies effectively, we are optimistic on its future, as route additions will serve as a catalyst for growth in the long run. Initiate with Trading Buy and TP of IDR6,100 We initiate our coverage on JSMR with a Trading Buy recommendation and target price of IDR6,100. We believe JSMR s expansion is likely to bear fruit in the long run. Due to the scale of the expansion, however, there could be challenges in the short term, as financing remains a major hurdle for the company. Still, with support from the government along with solid financing schemes, lower cost of capital, and prudent cost controls, we believe JSMR can unlock a promising future. Key risks to our call include: 1) unsupportive government regulations and/or interventions; and 2) higher-than-expected financing costs.
2 Local flash CENT: Centratama strengthens ownership in NQI through debt conversion. PT Centratama Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (CENT) increased its share ownership in a controlled subsidiary of PT Network Quality Indonesia (NQI). This is in line with the signing of a debt settlement agreement between the two on February 28, NQI is a 99.99% owned company CENT. Based on the information disclosure of CENT, on Monday (5/3), it was mentioned that NQI has debt to CENT amounting to IDR 1.92 trillion, the amount is converted to million new shares with nominal of IDR 100,000 each. (Kontan) IPCM: Jasa Armada has the potential to reach IDR 18 billion a year from Cemindo. PT Jasa Armada Indonesia Tbk (IPCM) signed a cooperation agreement with PT Cemindo Gemilang. The cooperation is related to tariff and standard operating procedures (SPO) guidance and delay service in the terminal for self-interest (TUKS) owned by PT Cemindo Gemilang. IPCM President Director Dawam Atmosudiro said his office provides guidance and suspension services at TUKS Cemindo located in Bayah, Banten. IPCM will be tasked with guiding and delaying the ship belonging to this cement company. Cemindo Gemilang is a producer of premium quality cement brands of Semen Merah Putih. In providing such services, IPCM has the potential to generate revenues of IDR 1.5 billion per month. If averaged, the potential revenue from Cemindo is around IDR 18 billion per year. (Kontan) DSSA: Dian Swastatika Sentosa added capital DSSP Power Kendari IDR Billion. PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA) will increase its capital in PT DSSP Power Kendari subsidiary. The additional capital was made on March 2, 2018 by injecting capital of IDR billion. Hermawan Tarjono, Director of DSSA through information disclosure today stated that previously the company has paid and paid up capital of IDR billion. After DSSA transactions have issued and paid up capital of IDR in DSSP Power Kendari. (Kontan) ELSA: Elnusa pocket of IDR 4 trillion contract. PT Elnusa Tbk has pocketed a IDR 4 trillion contract since the beginning of 2018 until now. Of that amount, IDR 1.8 trillion is a new contract and IDR 2.2 trillion is a carry over contract. Finance Director of PT Elnusa Tbk Budi Rahardjo confirmed that the contract value will continue to grow until the end of "The total value of this year's contract is expected to be IDR 5 trillion to IDR 6 trillion," he said Monday (5/3). / 2018) at Graha Elnusa. (Kontan) IKAI: Intikeramik held public expose incidental title, this is the cause. PT Intikeramik Alamasri Industri Tbk (IKAI) held an incidental public expose yesterday, Monday (5/3). The management of the company said that the public expose incidental is done as a company's liability, not because of the existence of corporate action or important openness that must be known by the public. "From IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange) there is a public expose request because stocks are suspended," said Yohas Raffli, President Director of IKAI, Monday (5/3). (Kontan) MTDL: Metrodata is preparing a capital expenditure of IDR 190 billion in PT Metrodata Electronics Tbk (MTDL) is designing a number of plans to be more expansive this year. Among them by preparing capital expenditure or capital expenditure (capex) of IDR 190 billion. Approximately IDR 100 billion capex will be used for the construction of four-storey warehouse in Cibitung. In addition, IDR 75 billion is used for the purchase of IT equipment to be leased back, and the remaining approximately IDR 15 billion for internal interests such as application upgrades and additional equipment for the data center. (Kontan) 2
3 Summary Technical analysis Tasrul Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) Mixed to High Item Data Item Data Close (March 5, 2017) 6,550.6 (-0.48%)Trading range 6,539-6,596 Average index performance (%) 2.53 Target Period 76 - Daily 6,595 r-squared Weekly 6,636 Volatility (+/-, %) +0.43/ Monthly 6,751 Volatility (+/-, point) / Stop loss 6,539 Source: Research Figure 1. Daily trend Uptrend ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 3/5/2018 Open: 6,595 High: 6,607 Low: 6,544 Close: 6,551 Vol. R-Squared: Period: 76 Std.Dev : 1.57 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : 1.01 Chg.: -0.48% 6, , , , , , , , , Optimization Trading System ^JKSE - Volume =.00, EMA(Volume,18) = 10,085,788, ,085,788,672 Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Source: Research 3
4 Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized,w%r optimized, Stochastic %D optimized & Bollinger Band optimized ^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = ^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = ^JKSE - Stochastic %D = 26.98, MA = ^JKSE - Daily 3/5/2018 Open , Hi , Lo , Close (-0.5%) BBTop(Close,17,1.61) = 6,663.77, BBBot(Close,17,1.61) = 6,509.93, EMA(Av erage,17) , ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 3/5/2018 Open: 6,595 High: 6,607 Low: 6,544 Close: 6,551 Vol. R-Squared: Period: 76 Std.Dev : 1.57 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : 1.02 ^JKSE - Volume =.00, EMA(Volume,18) = 10,085,788, Chg.: -0.48% 6, , ,085,788,672 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Source: Research 4
5 Figure 3. Weekly Trend Uptrend, MFI optimized,w%r optimized, Stochastic %D & Bollinger Band optimized ^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = ^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = ^JKSE - Stochastic %D = 73.47, MA = ^JKSE - Weekly 3/11/2018 Open , Hi , Lo , Close (-0.5%) BBTop(Av erage,8,1.86) = 6,673.00, BBBot(Av erage,8,1.86) = 6,462.92, EMA(Av erage,8) 6, ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 3/11/2018 Open: 6,595 High: 6,607 Low: 6,544 Close: 6,551 Vol. R-Squared: Period: 69 Std.Dev : 1.86 Volatility (+) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio Optimization : 1.24 Trading System Chg.: ^JKSE -0.48% - Volume =.00, EMA(Volume,9) = 37,585,092, , , , , , Oct 2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Source: Research 37,585,092,608 Figure 4. Daily : 6,539 6,595 Figure 5. Weekly : 6,511 6,636 Figure 6. Monthly : 6,442 6,751 ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 3/5/2018 Open: 6,595 ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 3/11/2018 Open: x ^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Monthly - 3/5/2018 Open: Prev. Av g. Price: 6,574.8 x R-Squared: R-Squared: R-Squared: Period: 76 Period: 69 Period: 31 Std.Dev : 1.57 Volatility (+) : Std.Dev : 1.86 Volatility (+) : Std.Dev : 2.04 Volatility (+) : ,780.8 Volatility (-) : Volatility (-) : Volatility (-) : V-Ratio : 0.96 V-Ratio : 1.34 V-Ratio : 1.02 Chg.: -0.48% 6,595.0 Chg.: -0.48% 6,631.0 Chg.: -0.71% 6, , , , , ,538.3 ^JKSE - Volume =.00 ^JKSE - Volume =.00 ^JKSE - Volume = 25,460,895, Mar Dec 2018 Feb Mar ,460,895,744 Source: Research Source: Research Source: Research 6,
6 Chart 7. JCI Vs. USD/IDR (pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R) 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 12/4 1/1 1/29 2/26 Source: Bloomberg, (IDR) 13,800 13,700 13,600 13,500 13,400 13,300 13,200 13,100 Chart 8. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative) (%, %p) Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index Source: Bloomberg, Absolute 21.1 Relative D 1W 1M 1Y Chart 9. Foreigner s net purchase (EM) Chart 10. Energy price (USDmn) ,000-1,200-1,400-1,600-1, ,529 Note: The latest figure for India are March 1 th, 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Day 5 Days Korea Taiwan Indonesia ThailandPhilippines India (D-3M=100) 120 CPO WTI Coal /4 1/1 1/29 2/26 Source: Bloomberg, Chart 11. Non-ferrous metal price (D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin /17 01/18 01/18 02/18 Source: Bloomberg, Chart 12. Precious metal price (D-3M=100) Silver Gold Platinum /17 01/18 01/18 02/18 Source: Bloomberg, 6
7 Table. Key valuation metrics Company Name Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)* (IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 Jakarta Composite Index JCI 6,551 7,312, FINANCIALS Bank Central Asia BBCA 22, , Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 8, , Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 3, , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 9, , Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 3,800 40, CONSUMER HM Sampoerna HMSP 4, , Gudang Garam GGRM 79, , Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 9, , Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 7,600 66, Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,600 75, Unilever Indonesia UNVR 53, , AGRICULTURAL Astra Agro Lestari AALI 14,875 28, PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,445 9, Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,455 13, INFRASTRUCTURE XL Axiata EXCL 2,860 30, Jasa Marga JSMR 5,325 38, Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,600 63, Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 5,675 25, Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 4, , Soechi Lines SOCI 274 1, N/A N/A Garuda Indonesia GIAA 312 8, BASIC-INDUSTRIES Semen Indonesia SMGR 10,850 64, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 3,540 58, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 20,700 76, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,585 18, MINING Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 27,300 30, Adaro Energy ADRO 2,320 74, Aneka Tambang ANTM , N/A Vale Indonesia INCO 3,140 31, N/A N/A Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 3,090 35, TRADE United Tractors UNTR 35, , AKR Corporindo AKRA 6,025 24, Global Mediacom BMTR 630 8, N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Matahari Department Store LPPF 11,000 32, Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,510 21, Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 436 2, N/A Surya Citra Media SCMA 2,720 39, Siloam International Hospital SILO 8,175 13, PROPERTY Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,825 35, Adhi Karya ADHI 2,330 8, Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 390 7, Ciputra Development CTRA 1,265 23, Lippo Karawaci LPKR , Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 3,020 18, Pakuwon Jati PWON , Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,015 14, Wijaya Karya WIKA 1,875 16, Waskita Karya WSKT 2,910 39, MISCELLANEOUS Astra International ASII 8, , Source: Bloomberg, *Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates 7
8 Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%) Agricultural 1, DSSA IJ , Mining 1, IBST IJ , Basic-Industry KAEF IJ , Miscellaneous Industry 1, PSAB IJ 272 7, Consumer Goods 2, TINS IJ , Property & Construction RMBA IJ , Infrastructure 1, AUTO IJ , Finance 1, TRAM IJ , Trade NISP IJ , Composite 6, PWON IJ , Source: Bloomberg Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close DSSA IJ ,425 BMRI IJ ,225 IBST IJ ,000 HMSP IJ ,750 KAEF IJ 8.9 2,570 TLKM IJ ,020 CPIN IJ 2.0 3,540 INTP IJ ,700 MDIA IJ TPIA IJ ,800 Source: Bloomberg Economic Calendar Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous 1:15am USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks 7:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 0.6% 7:30am AUD Current Account -12.3B -9.1B 7:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -0.5% 10:30am AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50% 10:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement 10:45am JPY 30-y Bond Auction :15pm CHF CPI m/m 0.3% -0.1% 4:10pm EUR Retail PMI 50.8 Tentative GBP 30-y Bond Auction :30pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -0.5% 10:00pm CAD Ivey PMI :00pm USD Factory Orders m/m -0.4% 1.7% Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory Disclaimers This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT. It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. PT
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