DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
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- Milton Knight
- 6 years ago
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1 GLOBAL Index Last Change % chg Dow 23, S&P 500 2, Eido US H.S.I 29, Nikkei 22, STI 3, KLCI 1, Kospi 2, SET Thai 1, COMMODITIES Index Brent Crude Oil ($/bbl) WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) CPO (MYR/ton) Gold (US$/tr ounce) Nickel (US$/ton) Tin (US$/ton) Pulp (US$/ton) weekly Coal (US$/ton) BEI STATISTICS JCI Change (1 day) Change YTD P/E Market (X) Volume (mn shr) Value (Rp bn) Last Change % chg , , , , , % 14.08% , , LQ45 % Change (1 day) INTEREST RATE BI 7D Reverse Repo (%) Fed fund rate (%) inflation mom (%) Inflation yoy (%) EXCHANGE RATE % Current Previous Last Change % chg 1 USD = IDR 13, USD = SGD USD = JPY USD = AUD USD = EUR DUAL LISTING Stocks Close Chg. % chg In Rp. Vol. (ADR) TLKM , ,885 ISAT ,082 2,150 BUMI Plc ,522 - Car and motorcycle sales up in October S. Korea ready to fund phase 2 of Jakarta LRT project ITMG 9M17 earnings jump strongly by 146% YoY, beating consensus forecast SMRA booked marketing sales of Rp2.3 tn in 10M17 MUFG may buy 40% stake in BDMN for USD 1.76 bn Jasa Marga (JSMR) to propose increase of 7 toll road segments tariff IHSG STATISTIC 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 DAILY TECHNICAL VIEW Sep-16 Nov-16 Volume We expect JCI to trade between 5,990 (support) 6,080 (resistance) level today ANTM: Buy on weakness at Rp 700-Rp 695 Comment: Testing support level TINS: Buy on weakness at Rp 895-Rp 880 Comment: Testing support level BUMI: Buy on weakness at Rp 240-Rp 230 Comment: Testing support level GGRM: Take profit at Rp 77,250-Rp 80,000 Comment: Vulnerable to profit taking MARKET REVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK Jan-17 tn 40.0 Regional Global stocks took a breather and were mostly lower. US shares followed European indexes lower on Thursday. US investors worries revolved around concerns that a Senate Republican tax plan will delay corporate rate cuts by a year to Both the Dow and S&P lost 0.4% while the Nasdaq was 0.6% lower. From labor market, initial jobless claims were up 10k to 239k last week while continuing claims were up 17k from previous week to 1.9 mn, bouncing off their recent low. From commodity market, WTI crude oil price rebounded USD0.36 to USD57.2/barrel while nickel price drop 3.19% to USD12,247/ton. Domestic JCI was down by 0.11% or 6.92 points lower to close at 6,042 on Thursday where HMSP (- 1.74% to 3,950), BMRI (-1.39% to 7,075), and INTP (-4.59% to 21,850), consecutively became lagging movers. Trading value was Rp5.8 tn and foreign investors sold Rp181 bn of stocks on a net basis. Rupiah slightly weakened by 2 points to Rp13,516/USD. Our technical desk expects the JCI to move mixed to lower with technical range of 5,990 6,080. Mar-17 JCI Index May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov
2 CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA HEADLINES BRIEF CAR AND MOTORCYCLE SALES UP IN OCTOBER According to data from Gaikindo, Indonesia s car sales rose 2.5% YoY and 7.7% MoM to 94.5 k units. This brings 10M17 car sales to k units or increase by 3% YoY. Motorcycle sales were also up 6% MoM in October to k units, which resulted in 9M17 sales volume to 4.9 mn units or flat YoY. Comment: 10M17 car and motorcycle sales were both in line with our expectations, forming 82% and 84% of our car and motorcycle forecast of 1.1 mn units and 5.8 mn units, respectively. Strong automotive sales could give positive sentiment to ASII share price. We maintain our Buy rating and TP of Rp9,250 for ASII. S. KOREA READY TO FUND PHASE 2 OF JAKARTA LRT PROJECT Korea Rail Network Authority (KRNA), a state company from South Korea, is ready to fund the second phase of the Jakarta LRT (light rail transit) project. Phase 2 covers the Velodrome Dukuh Atas corridor with a length of about 9 km. Jakarta Propertindo (JakPro) president director said the funding from KRNA is expected to lessen the Jakarta regional budget's burden. Korea is committed to helping with financing worth USD500 mn. For phase 2, JakPro will review a public-private partnership (PPP) scheme with KRNA partners. Comment : We believe WIKA will be awarded contract for Velodrome Dukuh Atas LRT as the company is now working on phase 1 Kelapa Gading Velodrome LRT which also use Korean technology. We maintain our Buy rating on WIKA with TP of Rp2,500. ITMG 9M17 EARNINGS JUMP STRONGLY BY 146% YOY, BEATING CONSENSUS FORECAST Indo Tambang raya (ITMG) reported net income of USD172 mn in 9M17 (+146% YoY), which came at 84% and 79% of our and consensus FY17 net income forecast. This came on the back of 21.4% YoY higher in revenue and cost efficiency measures, resulting strong margins expansion across the board. Operating income saw a 154% YoY increase to USD267 mn, forming 85% of our FY17F. On quarterly basis, ITMG posted 39% QoQ increase in net income which was buoyed by higher revenue (+9% QoQ) and flat COGS and Opex, driving operating profit to grow 52.4% QoQ to USD107 mn. Comment: We have yet to receive operating data but we believe higher coal price has boosted ITMG financial performance. We are reviewing our earnings forecast and current TP of Rp26,950 following higher-than-expected results. ITMG 9M17 Results USD mn 9M17 9M16 YoY 3Q17 2Q17 QoQ 2017F 9M/2017F Revenue 1, % % 1, % COGS % % Gross profit % % % Gross margin (%) Operating expense % % Operating income % % % Operating margin (%) Finance cost % % Interest income % % Others % % Profit before tax % % PBT margin (%) Income Tax % % Net Income % % % Net margin (%)
3 SMRA BOOKED MARKETING SALES OF RP2.3 TN IN 10M17 During January-October 2017, Summarecon Agung (SMRA) recorded Rp2.3 tn of marketing sales or equal to 66% of its FY 2017 marketing sales target. Summarecon Serpong became the largest contributor with Rp1.0 tn or 91% achievement and followed by Summarecon Bandung which acquired 44% of its FY target at Rp441 bn. Of the total pre -sales, Rp840 bn came from landed houses, Rp669 bn generated from the sales of shoplots, apartments amounted to Rp399 bn while Rp295 bn from landplot sales. Small contribution made by office spaces with Rp91 bn. Comment: The landed house segment offer higher margin compared to high-rise products e.g. apartments and offices. Though the 10M17 pre-sales achievement came in below estimate, we remain optimistic that SMRA net profit will improve by 24% YoY in 2018F. We recommend BUY for SMRA with TP of Rp1,400. MUFG MAY BUY 40% STAKE IN BDMN FOR USD 1.76 BN Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) is looking to buy a 40% stake in BDMN for USD 1.76 bn from Singapore's Temasek Holdings (majority shareholder with 67% ownership). MUFG is looking to take a majority stake in the future if it can win approval from Indonesia's central bank. In the past, there was similar prospective transaction where Singapore's DBS Group Holding sought to buy a controlling stake in BDMN from Temasek, but dropped the bid in 2013 after OJK changed regulations and restricted single ownership in domestic banks to 40%. OJK can relax these curbs on special grounds, including if the investing bank is financially strong. Comment: We expect positive sentiment on the stock and share price to be volatile on the issue. The stock is traded at 1.3x forward PBV at the moment, a premium valuation in our view considering 10-12% ROE expectation in F. JASA MARGA TO PROPOSE INCREASE OF 7 TOLL ROAD SEGMENTS TARIFF JSMR has proposed to Indonesian Toll Road Authority and Ministry of Public works and housing about to about the tariff adjustment of 7 toll road segments. Those 7 highway sections comprise of Jakarta Inner Ring Road (JIRR), Belawan Medan Tanjung Morawa (Belmera), Cipularang, Purabaleunyi, Palimanan Kanci (Palikanci), Semarang ABC and Surabaya Gempol. According VP operation, toll tariff increases every 2 years based on cumulative inflation rate. Hence, the tariff of those 7 toll roads will adjust up by approximately of 7%. Comment: 7 toll road segments total length reach 290 km or 47% of the total toll roads operating by JSMR at the moment. Please note, those 7 toll roads account 37-38% to total revenue. We expect JSMR to seize the positive impact next year, since at the moment there is only 1 month remaining. 3
4 CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS JCI : (6, %) Comment: HMSP, BBRI and INTP consecutively became laggers movers. Technically, JCI failed to break major resistance level of 6,082. Level of 5,989 become first support level. Next support and resistance level at 5,900-6,120. Based on Elliot wave approach, one of alternate wave countings is the index now is doing wave (v) which is the last wave of the uptrend cycle. The lowest level of 5,022 which occurred on December 23, 2016, was the origin level of the short-term uptrend cycle, and the highest level of 5,360 which occurred on January 9, 2017 as the peak of sub wave up (i). The lowest level of 5,228 which occurred on January 23, 2017 as the bottom of sub wave (ii). The highest level of 5,916 which occured on August 24, 2017 as the peak of wave (iii). The lowest level of 5,774 which is the lowest level on September 5, 2017 noted as the bottom of wave (iv). Based on this assumption, the index now is in the process to form wave (v) which is the last wave of the cycle. The peaks of wave (v) could reach the level of 6,080-6,300 which the projection of the uptrend channel.this wave counting automatically is false if the index moves below the level of 5,749. ^JKSE (6,055.55, 6,071.54, 6,039.86, 6,042.46, ) March April May June July August September October November Decemb 4
5 STOCK OF THE DAY BUMI : Testing support level The price closed below minor support level of 254. Resistance level at 282. Support level at 230. Next support and resistance level at The mid-term trend is still sideways. Buy on weakness Bumi Resources T ( , , , , ) (2) February March April Volume (347,442,592) May June July August September October November Dec ANTM : Testing resistance level The price closed below minor resistance level of 720. Level of 720 is also resistance level of the short-term downtrend line. Support level at 660. Next support and resistance level at Speculative buy/buy on weakness, add if the price moves and stable above the level of 720. ANTM.JK ( , , , , ) June July August September October November December 2017 February March April May June July August September October November
6 CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA TINS : Testing support level The price closed above minor support level of 885. Resistance level at 950. Next support and resistance level at 850-1,020. The mid-term trend is still sideways. Buy on weakness Timah (Persero) Tbk. ( , , , , ) April May June July August September October November GGRM: Testing resistance level The price closed below minor resistance level of 80,000. Support level at 75,500. Next support and resistance level at 71,000-83,100. Candlestick chart likely formed a reversal spinning top pattern. Take profit/sell on strength. Gudang Garam Tbk (77,000.00, 78,150.00, 75,500.00, 77,250.00, ) May June July August September October November 6
7 CIPTADANA FIXED INCOME DAILY CURRENCY TRADING RANGE OF TODAY USD/Rp: 13,465-13,565 INDONESIA GOVERNMENT SECURITIES YIELD AVERAGE DEPOSIT RATE Maturity (yrs) Yield (%) 1M 3M 6M 1YR 2YRS IDR US$ JIBOR (RP) JIBOR (USS) #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A BASE LENDING RATE EXCHANGE RATE BI RATE FED FUND RATE LPS INSURED RATE IDR US$ EXCHANGE RATE % chg US$ = IDR 13, US$ = SGD US$ = JPY US$ = AUD US$ = EUR
8 ANNUAL GENERAL MEETINGS AND EXTRAORDINARY GENERAL MEETINGS 14-Nov Nov-2017 Indosat (ISAT) Extraordinary General Meetings Agenda: Approval of changes in the composition of the Board of Directors of the Company Venue & Time : Indosat Building Ooredoo Jl Medan Merdeka Barat No. 21 Jakarta at (Western Indonesia Time) Bakrie Telecom (BTEL) Extraordinary General Meetings Agenda: Approval of granting of a dispensation to the Company for the delay in the holding of the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders for the financial year ended on 31 December 2016, Approval of the Annual Report & endorsement of the Company's Financial Statements for the financial year ended on 31 December 2016, Approval of the use of the Company's net profit for the financial year ended 31 December 2016, Appointment of Public Accountant of the Company Venue & Time : Bakrie Tower Floor 36, Ruang Nusantara, Rasuna Epicentrum Complex, Jl. H.R. Rasuna Said Kuningan Jakarta at (Western Indonesia Time) 8
9 PlazaASIAOffice Park Unit 2 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jakarta 12190, Indonesia T F E research@ciptadana.com Analyst Certification Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation. Disclaimer This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument, invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction. Nor are we acting in any other capacity as a fiduciary to you. By accepting this report, subject to applicable law or regulation. When making and investment decision, you should determine, without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction. In this regard, by accepting this presentation, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these matters. The information contained in this report is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate, current, complete, or error free. Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this report constitute our judgement as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice. Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. CIPTADANA SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER LOSSES OR DAMAGES INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS INCURRED BY YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY THAT MAY ARISE FROM ANY RELIANCE ON THIS REPORT OR FOR THE RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETE NESS OR TIMELINESS THEREOF. 9
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