DAILY & TECHNICAL UPDATE
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- Beryl Richardson
- 6 years ago
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1 GLOBAL Index Last Change % chg Dow 21, S&P 500 2, Eido US H.S.I 26, Nikkei 20, STI 3, KLCI 1, Kospi 2, SET Thai 1, Cement sales grow 7% in WTON bags new contracts of Rp2.3 tn in 5M17 Groundbreaking Digital Hub Phase II BSD City BUMI issues debt exchange offer memorandum to existing debt holders ADRO sees opportunities in water business TOWR to distribute dividend Rp 68.6, 1.88% dividend yield IHSG STATISTIC 6,000 tn COMMODITIES 5, Index Brent Crude Oil ($/bbl) WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) CPO (MYR/ton) Gold (US$/tr ounce) Nickel (US$/ton) Tin (US$/ton) Pulp (US$/ton) weekly Coal (US$/ton) Last Change % chg , , , , ,000 4,500 4,000 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Volume Nov-16 Dec-16 IHSG Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr Jun BEI STATISTICS JCI % Change (1 day) % Change YTD P/E Market (X) Volume (mn shr) Value (Rp bn) LQ45 % Change (1 day) INTEREST RATE BI 7D Reverse Repo (%) Fed fund rate (%) Inflation mom (%) Inflation yoy (%) EXCHANGE RATE DUAL LISTING Current Last Change 5, % 7.15% , , % Previous % chg 1 USD = IDR 13, USD = SGD USD = JPY USD = AUD USD = EUR Stocks Close Chg. % chg In Rp. Vol. (ADR) TLKM , ,019 ISAT ,778 2,150 BUMI Plc ,522 - DAILY TECHNICAL VIEW We expect JCI to trade between 5,630 (support) 5,720 (resistance) level today ASII: Buy on weakness at Rp 8,550-Rp 8,350 Comment: Testing support level BBCA: Buy on weakness at Rp 17,300-Rp 17,100 Comment: Testing support level PTPP: Buy on weakness at Rp 3,000-Rp 2,870 Comment: Testing support level INTP: Sell on strength at Rp 18,100-Rp 18,500 Comment: The trend is still sideways MARKET REVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK Regional U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday on pressure from this year's best -performing sector: technology. The Nasdaq composite hit a record high at the open before closing 1.8% lower. Shares of Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet all fell more than 3%. DJIA rose points, or 0.42%, to close at 21,271.97, with Pfizer leading advancers and Apple the top decliner. The S&P 500 slipped 2.02 points, or 0.08%, to end at 2,431.77, with information technology leading four sectors lower and energy outperforming. The tech-heavy index also posted its worst weekly performance of the year. On commodity markets, Brent oil increased by 0.48% to USD48.4/barrel while coal was up by 0.19% to USD79.5/ton Domestic JCI closed at 5,675 lower 27 points (-0.48%) with ASII (-1.98% to 8,650), BBRI (-1.88% to 14,375), BBCA (-1.26% to 17,700) consecutively became lagging movers. Trading value was Rp4.9 tn and foreign investors sold Rp1 tn of stocks on a net basis. Rupiah strengthened by 7 points to 13,291/USD. Our technical desk expects JCI to trade at higher territory with technical range of 5,630-5,720. 1
2 HEADLINES BRIEF CEMENT SALES GROW 7% IN MAY Domestic cement sales in reached 5.47 mn tons, up 7% from to the same period last year, thanks to demand from infrastructure projects across the country. Consumption of cement jumped, especially in high-consumption areas such as Western Java (+5.2% YoY), Overall Java (+11.7% YoY) while inching up in ex Java (+0.3% YoY). Comment : We see cement producers really put their hopes in the government infrastructure and housing development projects to boost sales. However, assuming that the increase in cement consumption per year was only 5-7%, the industry still would sit on overcapacity until WTON BAGS NEW CONTRACTS OF RP2.3 TN IN 5M17 Wijaya Karya Beton (WTON) has obtained new contracts worth Rp2.3 tn in 5M17, or achieved Rp32.5 % of its full-year target of Rp7 tn. Most of new contracts came from power plant, toll road, CPO plant and MRT projects. The company expects production volume to reach 3.5 mn tons from its ten plants across Indonesia this year. The company recently raised its 2017 revenue an d net profit target to Rp6 tn (from Rp5 tn) and Rp400 bn (from Rp350 bn), respectively, on stronger new contract expectation which was lifted from Rp6.2 tn to Rp7 tn. Comment: The company s new contacts growth is historically skewed toward second half of the year. At this juncture, we prefer to maintain our FY17F net income target of Rp368 bn and our TP of Rp1,050 with Buy rating for WTON. GROUNDBREAKING DIGITAL HUB PHASE II BSD CITY On 18 17, BSD City has started the construction of Digital Hub, situated in 26ha which dedicate for digital ecosystem which comprises of Technology Leaders, Startups, IT and Science School, R&D Center, Creative institutions, and Data Center. Strategically located in CBD area and is easily accessed from toll roads, and other surrounding areas. The area equips with pedestrian eco route, social spaces, renewable energy strategies and smart connectivity. Digital Hub offers commercial lots ranging from 1,500m2 to 1ha and business loft that will start selling this year. The first building has started to construct called Knowledge Hub, planned to be finished by Knowledge Hub is designed to be office for lease with 25,000m2 net leasable areas and 4 to 5 storey building. Comment: We believe the Digital Hub will attract Technology companies hence boost BSD City home buyers considering that Tech companies do not require being in the prime business area such as Jakarta CBD. We forecasted BSDE marketing sales of Rp7.2 tn in 2017, 16% increase from 2016 realization of Rp6.2 tn. Our calculation predicts the BSD City will generate around 80% of total BSDE marketing sales in ADRO SEES OPPORTUNITIES IN WATER BUSINESS Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) has begun diversifying its operations into the water sector with an ambitious target of producing 4,000 liters per second (lps) of tap water in multiple regions across the country over the next five years. ADRO officially entered the water sector t hrough the establishment of subsidiary PT Adaro Tirta Mandiri (ATM) in mid Late last year, ATM acquired two drinking-water treatment systems from PT Drupadi Agung Lestari with total investment value of Rp 150 bn, located in Banjarbaru, South Kalimantan and Gresik, East Java. The Banjarbaru facility can produce 500 lps of tap water while that in Gresik has maximum output rate of 400 lps of tap water. At present, ATM through a consortium with state-owned construction company PT Adhi Karya and France-based Suez group has joined the prequalification process of a tender to develop the tap water system in Lampung, expected to produce 800 lps of water with a total investment 2
3 value of between Rp bn. ATM holds 55% stake in the consortium, while Adhi Karya and Suez hold 35% and 10%, respectively. Comment: We see that the tap water is good for ADRO s horizontal business diversification. We still recommend Buy for ADRO with TP of Rp2,080/share. BUMI ISSUES DEBT EXCHANGE OFFER MEMORANDUM TO EXISTING DEBT HOLDERS Based on the agreement between PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) and its creditors, which have been approved by the Commercial Court of the Central Jakarta District Court on November 28, 2016, BUMI has commenced four exchanges (the Exchanges) to exchange existing debt of the Company for new loans and or securities. The Exchanges are: a. USD1.9 bn loan, made between among others BUMI and Country Forest Limited; b. USD600 mn, made between among others BUMI and China Development Bank Corporation; c. USD375 mn guaranteed convertible bonds due 2014 issued by Enercoal Resources Pte. Ltd; d. USD300 mn guaranteed senior secured notes due 2016 issued by Bumi Capital Pte Ltd; e. USD700 mn guaranteed senior secured notes due 2017 issued by Bumi Investment Pte Ltd; Holders of the above existing debt will be entitled to receive new debt and/or securities and must make certain elections regarding the new debt and /or securities they are eligible to receive. In connection with the exchanges, the Company will issue: a. New senior secured debt, comprising of tranche A facility and tranche B facility and/or notes as series A Notes and series B Notes; b. A trance C facility; c. Mandatory convertible bonds d. Contingent value rights; and e. Ordinary shares in the company. Comment: We do not cover BUMI at the moment. But, we see that the letter issuance is a one step forward towards the Company s debt to equity swap process. TOWR TO DISTRIBUTE DIVIDEND RP 68.6, 1.88% DIVIDEND YIELD Sarana Menara Nusantara Protelindo (TOWR:IJ) tower company, the largest independent owner in Indonesia, close to 14,600 towers, reported for FY16 net income from continued operations of R p 2,67 tn, 53% net profit margin. In its annual shareholders meeting, was decided to distribute 23% of earnings to shareholders that constitutes to -Rp or 1.88% dividend yield. TOWR closed on Friday at Rp 3,650. 3
4 CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS JCI : (5, %) Comment : ASII, BBRI and BBCA consecutively became laggers movers. Technically, JCI closed above minor support level at 5,672. Resistance level at 5,765. Next support and resistance level at 5,577-5,874. Based on Elliot wave approach, we still believe that JCI is currently forming wave up minor (B). One of alternate wave countings is the index will form an expanded flat pattern (3-3-5 pattern). In this scenario, wave (B) breaks the major resistance level and continue going up before reversing and moves back to below the level of 5,525. The bottom of wave down minor (A) at the level of 4,033 occurred on September 29, The highest level of 4,696 on October 26, 2015 noted as the peak of sub wave A of minor (B) and the lowest level of 4,330 which occurred on December 14, 2015 as the bottom of sub wave B of wave minor (B) and currently the index is forming wave C of (B). The highest level of 4,920 which occurred on 25, 2016 as the peak of wave 1 wave C of wave minor (B) then the lowest level of 4,690 which occured on 20, 2016 as the bottom of wave 2 wave C of (B). The highest level of 5,491 which occurred on November 9, 2016 as the peak of wave 3 of sub wave C of wave (B) and the lowest level of 5,022 which occurred on December 23, 2015, which was considered as the bottom of wave down 4 of sub wave C of (B), and the highest level of 5,360 which occurred on January 9, 2017 as the peak of sub wave up (i) of wave 5 of wave C of (B). The lowest level of 5,228 which occurred on January 23, 2017 as the bottom of sub wave (ii) of wave 5 of wave C of (B). The highest level of 5,680 could be the peak of sub wave iii of wave (iii) of (5). The lowest level of 5,577 noted as the bottom of sub wave iv of wave (iii) of (5). The highest level of 5,745 noted as the peaks of sub wave v of wave (iii) of 5. The lowest level of 5,577 could be the bottom of wave (iv) of 5 and now the index is in the process to form wave up minute (v) of 5 which is the last wave of the cycle. The highest level of 5,874 potentially become the peaks of wave 5. 5 (v)? 5900 (iii) iii v? iv 5600 (iv)? i 5450 (i) ii (ii) December February March July
5 STOCK OF THE DAY ASII : Testing support level The price closed above minor support level of 8,550. Resistance level at 9,050. Next support and resistance level at 8,325-9,350. Buy on weakness, cut if the price moves and stable below the level of 8,300 Astra Internatio (8,750.00, 8,750.00, 8,650.00, 8,650.00, ) December February March BBCA : Testing support level The price failed to break minor resistance level of 18,250. Support level at 17,150. Next support and resistance level at 17,450-18,550. Candlestick chart likely formed a reversal bearish engulfing. This pattern still need further confirmation. Buy on weakness at support level, cut if the price moves and stable below the level of 17,300 Bank Central Asi (18,100.00, 18,100.00, 17,525.00, 17,700.00, ) (3) 5? i (1) (2) ? ii (4)? February March July 1 5
6 CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA PTPP : Testing support level The price closed above minor support level of 3,000. Resistance level at 3,230. Next support and resistance level at 2,850-3,500. The mid-term trend is still sideways. Buy on weakness PTPP.JK (3,060.00, 3,090.00, 3,060.00, 3,070.00, ) November December 2017 February March July INTP: Testing support level The price closed above minor support level of 17,800. Resistance level at 19,000. Next support and resistance level at 17,000-20,000. The mid-term trend is still sideways. Sell on strength. Indocement Tungg (17,800.00, 17,900.00, 17,500.00, 17,900.00, ) a b v March July August September October November December February March
7 CIPTADANA FIXED INCOME DAILY CURRENCY TRADING RANGE OF TODAY USD/Rp: 13,250 13,350 INDONESIA GOVERNMENT SECURITIES YIELD AVERAGE DEPOSIT RATE Maturity (yrs) Yield (%) 1M 3M 6M 1YR 2YRS IDR US$ JIBOR (RP) JIBOR (USS) #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A BASE LENDING RATE EXCHANGE RATE BI RATE FED FUND RATE LPS INSURED RATE IDR US$ EXCHANGE RATE % chg US$ = IDR 13, US$ = SGD US$ = JPY US$ = AUD US$ = EUR
8 ANNUAL GENERAL MEETINGS AND EXTRAORDINARY GENERAL MEETINGS 12 -Jun-17 Agung Podomoro Land (APLN) 12 -Jun-17 Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM) 12 -Jun-17 Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper (INKP) 09 -Jun-17 Dwi Aneka Jaya Kemasindo (DAJK) Annual General Meetings Agenda : Approval of the Annual Report for the financial year ending on 31 December 2016, Ratification of Financial Statement containing Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the year ended 31 December 2016, Approval of the use of the Company's Profit for the financial year ended on 31 December 2016, Appointment of Public Accountant, Approval of the Company's plan to reduce the issued and paid-up capital of the Company by redeeming 1,136,338,300 (one billion one hundred thirty six million three hundred thirty eight thousand three hundred) shares which are shares of the shares repurchased shares of the Company for the period November 28, 2014 until 27, 2016 which has been approved based on the resolution of the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders of the Company dated November 27, 2014, and the approval of the amendment of the Articles of Association Venue & Time: Ball Room Hotel Pullman Jakarta Central Park, Jakarta, at WIB Annual General Meetings Agenda : Approval of the Annual Report for the financial year ending on 31 December 2016, Ratification of Financial Statement containing Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the year ended 31 December 2016, Approval of the use of the Company's Profit for the financial year ended on 31 December 2016, Appointment of Public Accountant, Change of member arrangement, Venue & Time: Hotel Le Grandeur, Lantai 2 Ruang Pertiwi Jl. mangga Dua Raya, Jakarta, at (Western Indonesia Time) Annual General Meetings Agenda : Approval of the Annual Report for the financial year ending on 31 December 2016, Ratification of Financial Statement containing Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the year ended 31 December 2016, Approval of the use of the Company's Profit for the financial year ended on 31 December 2016, Appointment of Public Accountant, Change of member arrangement, Venue & Time: Hotel Le Grandeur, Lantai 2 Ruang Pertiwi Jl. mangga Dua Raya, Jakarta, at (Western Indonesia Time) Extraordinary General Meetings Agenda : Changes in the composition of the Board of Commissioners and the Board of Directors of the Company, Right issue plan, Ratification of Financial Statements, Approval of disposal of assets according to homologation Venue & Time: Office of PT Dwi Aneka Jaya Kemasindo Tbk, Plant 1, Jl Raya Raya II, No. 5, Pasir Jaya Urban Village, Jatiuwung, Tangerang, at (Western Indonesia Time) 12 -Jun-17 Roda Vivatex (RDTX) Annual General Meetings Agenda : The Company's Annual Report includes the approval of the Financial Statements and the Supervisory Report of the Board of Commissioners for the fiscal year 2016, Determination of the Company's profit utilization for the Fiscal Year 2016, Appointment of Public Accountant Office of the Company Venue & Time: Menara Standard Chartered, Podium Lt.2 Jl. Prof. Dr. Satrio No. 164, Jakarta 8
9 DIVIDEND, STOCK SPLIT, RIGHT ISSUE 13-Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) Ex dividen Rp235/share in regular and negotiation market Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (ICBP) Ex dividen Rp154/share in regular and negotiation market Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE) Ex dividen Rp5/share in regular and negotiation market Pakuwon Jati (PWON) Ex dividen Rp4.5/share in regular and negotiation market Sinarmas Multiartha (SMMA) Ex dividen Rp1/share in regular and negotiation market Kalbe Farma (KLBF) Cum dividen Rp22/share in regular and negotiation market Tempo Scan Pacific (TSPC) Cum dividen Rp50/share in regular and negotiation market Surya Toto Indonesia (TOTO) Cum dividen Rp3/share in regular and negotiation market Daria Varya (DVLA) Cum dividen Rp65/share in regular and negotiation market Budi Starch & Sweetener (BUDI) Cum dividen Rp2.5/share in regular and negotiation market Tunas Baru Lampung (TBLA) Cum dividen Rp30/share in regular and negotiation market Arwana Citramulia (ARNA) Cum dividen Rp5/share in regular and negotiation market Indopoly Swakarsa Industry (IPOL) Cum dividen Rp3.5/share in regular and negotiation market Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR) Cum dividen Rp68.6/share in regular and negotiation market 9
10 PlazaASIA Office Park Unit 2 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jakarta 12190, Indonesia T F E research@ciptadana.com Analyst Certification Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation. Disclaimer This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument, invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction. Nor are we acting in any other capacity as a fiduciary to you. By accepting this report, subject to applicable law or regulation. When making and investment decision, you should determine, without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume th ese risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction. In this regard, by accepting this presentation, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organization as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these matters. The information contained in this report is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate, current, complete, or error free. Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this report constitute our judgement as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice. Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. CIPTADANA SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER LOSSES OR DAMAGES INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS INCURRED BY YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY THAT MAY ARISE FROM ANY RELIANCE ON THIS REPORT OR FOR THE RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETE NESS OR TIMELINESS THEREOF. 10
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