Morning Brief. Indonesian Market Daily. Indonesia Economic Data

Transcription

1 Monday December Daily Morning Brief IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index) December Chg pts (-0.64%) Volume (bn shares) 5.59 Value (IDR tn) 5.15 Adv 72 Dec 186 Unc 273 Untr 195 Foreign Transaction (IDR bn) Buy 2,351 Sell 2,168 Net Buy (Sell) 182 Top Buy NB Val. Top Sell NS Val. TLKM 63.7 BBRI ASII 56.8 BBNI 92.8 LSIP 13.9 UNVR 47.2 AKRA 13.7 UNTR 27.3 ACES 8.7 SMGR 26.3 LQ-45 Index Top Gainers & Losers Gainers % Losers % LSIP 3.1% CPIN -7.6% SRIL 3.1% BMTR -3.1% LPPF 2.7% KLBF -3.0% AKRA 2.4% WTON -2.8% ASII 1.6% UNTR -2.6% Government Bond Yield & FX Last Chg. Tenor: 10 year % 0.16% USD/IDR 13, % KRW/IDR % Global Indexes Index Last Chg. % Dow Jones 17, % S&P 500 2, % Nasdaq 5, % FTSE 100 6, (36.71) -0.59% CAC 40 4, (15.42) -0.33% DAX 10, (37.14) -0.34% Nikkei 19, (435.42) -2.18% Hang Seng 22, (181.12) -0.81% S&P/ASX 200 5, (76.11) -1.46% Shanghai 3, (59.83) -1.67% KOSPI 1, (19.67) -0.99% Commodity Price Commodity Last Chg. % Gold (USD /troy oz.) 1, % Crude Oil (USD /bbl) (1.11) -2.70% Gas (USD /mmbtu) % Nickel LME (USD /MT) 8, % Tin LME (USD /MT) 14, % CPO (MYR/Ton) 2, % Indonesian Market Daily JCI - Intraday JCI - daily charts Indonesian Market Recap JCI fell last Friday in the middle of regional losses as investors were cautious ahead key US employment data released in Friday night. Top losers: Basic Ind (- 1.33%), Consumer (-1.13%), Infrastructure (-0.97%). Today s Outlook: Strong US jobs data For today we estimate JCI to move flat within support range of and resistance range of Global investors are now focusing on the latest US jobs data released last Friday which topped the forecasts. With the improved jobs data, the possibility of interest rate hike is getting higher. The investors now are still waiting whether the Fed will soon hike in its next week meeting, regardless any weak or modest manufacturing data. However, investor in Indonesia shouldn t reacted too much on significant US markets responses last night. Global Market United States US markets advanced more than 2 percent last Friday after strong jobs report supporting a Fed rate hike in December. Europe European markets ended lower last Friday after fresh jobs report from US and a policy meeting from OPEC. Asia Asian markets declined into three-week lows last Friday following global declines due to comments from the Fed and ECB. Daily Recommendation (details on the next page) Trading Buy: ASII, CTRP, SIMP Daily Company News SMBR : Sales volume increases by 12% PTPP : Prepares IDR 1.5 trillion for new subsidiary DAJK : Increases production capacity HITS : Realizes USD 20 million of capex Domestic and Global News Government tries to book IDR 225 trillion tax revenue in December US creates 211 thousand jobs in November Indonesia Economic Data Monthly Indicator Last Prev. BI Rate 7.50% 7.50% FX Reserve (USD bn) Trd Balance (USD bn) Exports Yoy % % Imports Yoy % % Inflation Yoy 4.89% 6.25% Quarterly Indicator Last Prev. Real GDP 4.73% 4.67% Current Acc (USD bn) (4.00) (4.25) Govt Spending Yoy 6.56% 2.13% FDI (USD bn) Business Confidence Cons. Confidence PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia Daily Morning Brief Page 11

2 Stocks Recommendation ASII Last = 6400 Analysis Long white candlestick forming two black crows indicating bullish continuation. Price bounced back on its MA100 day line. MACD indicator is going to form golden cross. Range Action Trading buy as price above 6300 CTRP Last = 415 Analysis White candlestick forming piercing pattern indicating bullish reversal possibility. MACD indicator is going to form golden cross. Momentum indicator shows bearish divergence indicating reduced bearish power. Range Action Trading buy as price above 408 SIMP Last = 377 Analysis Long-shadowed spinning candlestick indicating bullish reversal possibility. MACD indicator forms golden cross. Momentum indicator shows bearish divergence indicating reduced bearish power. Range Action Trading buy as price above 390 Daily Company News SMBR : Sales volume increases by 12% PT Semen Baturaja, Tbk reported its sales volume increased by 12% from 136,425 tons in November 2014 into 153,906 tons in November With this result total sales volume in 11M 2015 was at 1.41 million tons, or 27% higher than 1.13 million tons in 11M The company was optimistic to reach target of 1.5 million tons in (Bisnis) PTPP : Prepares IDR 1.5 trillion for new subsidiary PT Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero), Tbk prepared IDR 1.5 trillion to establish a new subsidiary in energy sector. The source of fund for new subsidiary, called PP Energi, will come from various sources. The company now is preparing legal and business aspects of this new subsidiary and will present the result in general shareholders meeting in next year. (Bisnis) DAJK : Increases production capacity PT Dwi Aneka Jaya Kemasindo, Tbk will increase its production capacity to enlarge export contribution to 20% from total production. Carton packaging production will be increased from current position at 4,500 tons per month to 4,800 tons per month. In addition to export market, the company also will increase local sales by cooperating with smallscale companies. (Bisnis) HITS : Realizes USD 20 million of capex PT Humpuss Intermoda Transportasi, Tbk has only realized USD 20 million of capex this year. Previously the company prepared capex budget of USD million in The company stated capex was used to buy LNG tanker to support contract from power plant of PT PLN in Bali. The value of this contract was at IDR 1.3 trillion with duration of 7 years. (Bisnis) PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia Daily Morning Brief 2 Page 22

3 Technical Indicators S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 SMA 5 MACD STOCHASTIC RSI IHSG 4,466 4,484 4,496 4,526 4,544 4,556 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 4,420 4,514 4,608 Agriculture AALI 16,875 17,163 17,325 17,775 18,063 18,225 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 17,225 18,211 19,198 LSIP 1,188 1,229 1,263 1,338 1,379 1,413 POSITIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 1,191 1,279 1,367 Mining ADRO NEGATIVE NEGATIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT HRUM POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT OVERSOLD ITMG 6,188 6,356 6,463 6,738 6,906 7,013 POSITIVE POSITIVE OVERSOLD OVERSOLD 6,294 7,185 8,076 INCO 1,418 1,471 1,498 1,578 1,631 1,658 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE OVERSOLD OVERSOLD 1,432 1,792 2,153 TINS NEGATIVE POSITIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT Basic Industries CPIN 2,753 2,881 2,993 3,233 3,361 3,473 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 2,430 2,971 3,512 JPFA NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT INTP 18,163 18,781 19,338 20,513 21,131 21,688 POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 18,275 19,909 21,543 SMCB 1,015 1,030 1,045 1,075 1,090 1,105 NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 980 1,050 1,120 SMGR 10,688 10,806 10,863 11,038 11,156 11,213 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 10,062 10,908 11,753 WTON NEGATIVE NEGATIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT Misc. Industries ASII 5,963 6,081 6,188 6,413 6,531 6,638 POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 5,996 6,349 6,702 Consumer AISA 1,175 1,253 1,345 1,515 1,593 1,685 POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 1,409 1,500 1,591 ICBP 12,188 12,344 12,413 12,638 12,794 12,863 NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 12,297 12,653 13,008 INDF 4,875 4,950 5,025 5,175 5,250 5,325 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT 4,916 5,305 5,694 ROTI 1,233 1,236 1,243 1,253 1,256 1,263 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 1,169 1,235 1,301 GGRM 49,425 50,000 50,575 51,725 52,300 52,875 POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 46,501 49,594 52,686 KLBF 1,260 1,280 1,305 1,350 1,370 1,395 NEGATIVE POSITIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT 1,300 1,355 1,409 UNVR 35,088 35,556 35,938 36,788 37,256 37,638 NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 34,903 36,650 38,397 Property ASRI NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT BEST NEGATIVE NEGATIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT BSDE 1,700 1,718 1,725 1,750 1,768 1,775 NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 1,595 1,684 1,772 CTRA 1,115 1,148 1,185 1,255 1,288 1,325 POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 1,159 1,252 1,346 CTRP NEGATIVE NEGATIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT LPKR 1,245 1,270 1,290 1,335 1,360 1,380 NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 1,084 1,246 1,408 PWON POSITIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT ADHI 2,143 2,161 2,173 2,203 2,221 2,233 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 2,154 2,223 2,293 PTPP 3,633 3,669 3,698 3,763 3,799 3,828 POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 3,625 3,752 3,879 TOTL POSITIVE NEGATIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT WIKA 2,675 2,703 2,735 2,795 2,823 2,855 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 2,719 2,817 2,914 WSKT 1,593 1,614 1,633 1,673 1,694 1,713 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 1,625 1,684 1,742 Infrastructure EXCL 3,535 3,605 3,670 3,805 3,875 3,940 POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 3,093 3,557 4,021 TLKM 2,958 2,974 2,988 3,018 3,034 3,048 POSITIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 2,634 2,852 3,069 PGAS 2,743 2,771 2,803 2,863 2,891 2,923 POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 2,514 2,821 3,127 JSMR 4,725 4,748 4,770 4,815 4,838 4,860 POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 4,649 4,868 5,087 Finance BBCA 12,913 13,006 13,113 13,313 13,406 13,513 POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 12,611 13,121 13,632 BBNI 4,838 4,874 4,908 4,978 5,014 5,048 POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 4,714 4,993 5,271 BBRI 10,963 11,044 11,138 11,313 11,394 11,488 POSITIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 10,275 10,954 11,633 BBTN 1,225 1,243 1,255 1,285 1,303 1,315 NEGATIVE POSITIVE OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 1,110 1,221 1,331 BMRI 8,588 8,644 8,713 8,838 8,894 8,963 NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 8,226 8,699 9,172 Trade Ticker Support Resistance LOWER BOLLINGER BAND MIDDLE BOLLINGER BAND UPPER BOLLINGER BAND AKRA 6,050 6,125 6,200 6,350 6,425 6,500 POSITIVE POSITIVE OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 5,790 6,055 6,320 UNTR 14,950 15,288 15,475 16,000 16,338 16,525 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT 15,800 17,019 18,238 ACES NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT ERAA NEGATIVE NEGATIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT LPPF 15,300 15,625 15,875 16,450 16,775 17,025 POSITIVE POSITIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT 14,558 15,774 16,990 MPPA 1,770 1,790 1,830 1,890 1,910 1,950 NEGATIVE POSITIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT 1,829 1,965 2,102 TELE POSITIVE NEGATIVE NEAR OVERBOUGHT NEAR OVERBOUGHT SCMA 2,940 2,975 3,005 3,070 3,105 3,135 NEGATIVE NEGATIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT 2,966 3,185 3,403 BHIT NEGATIVE NEGATIVE OVERSOLD OVERSOLD BMTR NEGATIVE POSITIVE OVERSOLD NEAR OVERBOUGHT PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia Daily Morning Brief 3 Page 33

4 Fundamental Ratios Ticker 12 Month Consensus Target Price Return Potential Market Cap (trillion IDR) PE (x) PBV (x) ROE (%) DER 52 Week High 52 Week Low YTD Return (%) 1 Year Return IHSG 5, % 4, % ,524 4, % % Agriculture AALI 22, % % ,525 14, % % LSIP 1, % % - 2, % % Mining ADRO % % , % % ITMG 10, % % - 18,600 6, % % INCO 2, % % ,125 1, % % TINS % % , % % Basic Industries CPIN 2, % % ,130 1, % % INTP 19, % % ,575 16, % % SMCB 1, % 8.0 #N/A N/A % , % % SMGR 11, % % ,775 7, % % Misc. Industries ASII 6, % % ,575 4, % -9.86% Consumer AISA 1, % % ,300 1, % % ICBP 15, % % ,050 10, % 6.38% INDF 7, % % ,725 4, % % ROTI 1, % % ,455 1, % -9.12% GGRM 58, % % ,000 39, % % KLBF 1, % % ,915 1, % % UNVR 36, % % ,000 30, % 14.21% Property ASRI % % % % BEST % % % % BSDE 2, % % ,230 1, % -5.96% CTRA 1, % % , % -7.21% LPKR 1, % % , % 11.06% PWON % % % -9.51% ADHI 2, % % ,284 1, % % PTPP 4, % % ,245 2, % 14.68% TOTL 1, % % - 1, % % WIKA 3, % % ,895 2, % % WSKT 1, % % ,900 1, % 46.11% Infrastructure TLKM 3, % % ,095 2, % 6.19% PGAS 3, % % ,050 2, % % JSMR 6, % % ,250 4, % % Finance BBCA 13, % % ,600 11, % -1.69% BBNI 5, % % ,275 3, % % BBRI 12, % % ,450 7, % -1.53% BBTN 1, % % , % 9.48% BMRI 9, % % ,550 7, % % Trade AKRA 6, % % ,375 3, % 40.33% UNTR 19, % % ,000 15, % % ACES % % % -3.16% ERAA % % , % % MPPA 2, % % - 4,500 1, % % TELE 1, % % , % % SCMA 3, % % ,040 2, % -7.67% PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia Daily Morning Brief 4 Page 44

5 Global Economic Calendar Date Country Hour Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Prev Monday CHN Tentative Foreign Reserves Nov $3492.5b $3525.5b 07 - Dec JPN 12:00 Leading Index CI Oct P GER 14:00 Industrial Production SA MoM Oct 0.70% -1.10% Tuesday CHN Tentative Exports YoY Nov -5.00% -6.90% 08 - Dec CHN Tentative Imports YoY Nov % % CHN Tentative Trade Balance Nov $64.00b $61.64b JPN 06:50 GDP SA QoQ 3Q F 0.10% -0.20% JPN 06:50 BoP Current Account Balance Oct b b JPN 06:50 Trade Balance BoP Basis Oct 202.3b 82.3b UK 16:30 Industrial Production MoM Oct 0.10% -0.20% UK 16:30 Manufacturing Production MoM Oct 0.10% 0.80% EUR 17:00 GDP SA QoQ 3Q P 0.30% 0.30% EUR 17:00 Household Cons QoQ 3Q % Wednesday JPN 06:50 Machine Orders MoM Oct -1.60% 7.50% 09- Dec JPN 06:50 Money Stock M2 YoY Nov 3.50% 3.60% JPN 06:50 Money Stock M3 YoY Nov 2.80% 2.90% CHN 08:30 CPI YoY Nov 1.40% 1.30% CHN 08:30 PPI YoY Nov -6.00% -5.90% GER 14:00 Trade Balance Oct 21.8b 22.8b GER 14:00 Current Account Balance Oct 23.7b 25.1b GER 14:00 Exports SA MoM Oct -0.60% 2.60% GER 14:00 Imports SA MoM Oct -0.80% 3.80% USA 19:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 4-Dec % USA 22:00 Wholesale Inventories MoM Oct 0.10% 0.50% Thursday JPN 06:50 PPI MoM Nov -0.30% -0.60% 10 - Dec UK 07:01 RICS House Price Balance Nov 50% 49% UK 16:30 Trade Balance Oct UK 19:00 BOE Asset Purchase Target Dec 375b 375b UK 19:00 Bank of England Bank Rate 10-Dec 0.50% 0.50% USA 20:30 Import Price Index MoM Nov -0.80% -0.50% USA 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims 5-Dec k USA 20:30 Continuing Claims 28-Nov k Friday GER 14:00 CPI MoM Nov F 0.10% 0.10% 11 - Dec GER 14:00 CPI EU Harmonized MoM Nov F 0.10% 0.10% USA 20:30 Retail Sales Advance MoM Nov 0.30% 0.10% USA 20:30 PPI Final Demand MoM Nov 0.00% -0.40% USA 22:00 U. of Mich. Sentiment Dec P Domestic Economic Calendar Date Hour Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Prev Monday Tentative Foreign Reserves Nov $100.71b 07 - Dec Tentative Net Foreign Assets IDR Nov t PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia Daily Morning Brief 5 Page 55

6 Corporate Calendar Date Event Company Tuesday 08- Dec Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting IPO Listing Date AGRS, GSMF DPUM Wednesday 09- Dec Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting BACA, SIMA Thursday 10- Dec IPO Listing Date AMIN, IDPR Friday 11- Dec Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting MKNT Domestic & Global News Government tries to book IDR 225 trillion tax revenue in December Government prepared to reach target of tax revenue of IDR 225 trillion in December or more than 100% higher compared to realization in November of IDR 106 trillion. This action is to support budget deficit to stay below tolerable level of 2.7%. Finance minister believed that 100% growth could be reached by looking on several sources such as asset revaluation, reinvesting policy, other extra efforts, and other regular revenue. (Bisnis) US creates 211 thousand jobs in November The US economy created a solid 211,000 jobs in November, a number that topped expectations of 200,000 jobs and supported the final key for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this December. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll growth continued to build on momentum from October. Meanwhile the unemployment rate remained 5 percent, wage growth was up 0.2 percent, and October jobs were revised up to 298,000. (CNBC) PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia Daily Morning Brief 6 Page 66

7 Disclaimer & Contacts Research Team: Reza Priyambada Bagus Permadi Raphon Prima DISCLAIMER This report, and any electronic access to it, is restricted to and intended only for clients of PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia or a related entity to PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not to be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. NH Korindo Securities Indonesia, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia PT. NH Korindo Securities Indonesia Member of Indonesia Stock Exchange Head Office : Wisma Korindo 7 th Floor Jl. M.T. Haryono Kav. 62 Pancoran, Jakarta Indonesia Telp: Fax : Branch Office Pluit: Jl. Pluit Kencana Raya Blok O No. 79 B-C, Pluit Penjaringan Jakarta Indonesia Telp : Fax : Branch Office Solo : Jl. Ronggowarsito No. 8 Kota Surakarta Jawa Tengah Indonesia Telp: Fax : A Member of NongHyup Financial Group Seoul New York London Hong Kong Singapore Shanghai Beijing Hanoi Ho Chi Minh City Jakarta PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia Daily Morning Brief Page 77