Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief
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- Alberta Aubrie Ryan
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1 Asiamoney s Finance Asia's 8 June 2016 Beacon Indonesia Morning Brief IDX: 4,934 (+0.8%) Turnover: IDR5.0tn (+23.6%) Foreign Net BUY: IDR630.3bn (+14.8%) TODAY S NEWS POLITICS Ahok and PDI-P maintain relationship KPK arrests Rokan Hulu Regent ECONOMICS Govt: To cut 2016 economic growth forecast to 5.1%, inflation at 4% President wants to have price discounts during Lebaran season BI: Indonesia s May FX reserves amount to USD103.6bn, down 4% m-m Jokowi: To dismiss 120,000 employees and hire 60,000 next year FIXED INCOME Moody s assigns Baa3 to Indonesia s planned EUR MTN issuance Government bond auction results INDUSTRY Auto: 4W May wholesale sales reached 87.9k units, +11% y-y and +4% m-m Auto: 2W May sales reached 462k units, -1.7% y-y and -3.5% m-m Cooking Oil: President targets a decrease of 5.5% in cooking-oil prices Property: Japanese company to invest IDR900bn in retail mall business Banks: June 2016, KUR disbursement has reached IDR46.7tn Infrastructure: Construction of LRT to start on 22 June 2016 Aviation: KPPU to urge government to remove the floor ceiling of flight ticket fares Infrastructure: Ahok plans to issue bonds to fund LRT projects Coal: ESDM sets June HBA price at USD51.8/mt, up 1.2% m-m Electricity: ESDM Minister approves RUPTL Steel: The ministry of industry reviews safeguard implementation CORPORATE ADRO signs share-sale agreement with BHP Billiton for 75% stake worth USD120m BBRI postponing BRISat launch WSKT issues bonds with 9.25% coupon SMRA booked IDR1.4tn marketing sales in 5M16 This report uses credit ratings assigned by Moody s, which is not registered with Japan s Financial Services Agency pursuant to Article 66, Paragraph 27 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. should read the related attachment for information on ratings assigned by unregistered rating agencies. ECONOMIC INDICATORS MARKET DATA 15A 16F 17F 15A 16F 17F Cur acc bal (%GDP) (2.1) (2.3) (2.3) Op.prof.gwt.(%) (0.3) Fiscal bal (%GDP) (2.6) (2.7) (2.5) EPS growth (%) (7.2) GDP growth (%y-y) P/E (x) Private spending (%) PEG (x) (3.5) Investment (%y-y) EV/EBITDA (x) Total exports (%y-y) (2.0) (4.5) (1.8) P/BV (x) Total imports (%y-y) (5.9) (7.5) (2.6) P/BV exc Inflation (%y-y) Div. Yield (%) IDR/USD 13,788 14,000 13,500 Net gearing (%) BI rate (% p.a.) ROAE (%) Brent Oil (Usd/bbl) ROAA (%) FX reserve (USDb) ROIC (%) Source: Bahana estimates Source: Bahana estimates INDICES Asia Last Chg% ytd % y-y % Hang Seng (HK) 21, (2.7) (21.9) IDX (Indonesia) 4, (1.6) KLCI (Mal.) 1, (1.9) (4.5) KOSPI (Korea) 2, (2.6) Nikkei (Japan) 16, (12.4) (18.5) PCOMP (Phil.) 7, SENSEX (India) 27, SET (Thailand) 1,442.4 (0.1) 12.0 (4.4) SHCOMP (China) 2, (17.0) (42.8) SHENZHEN (China) 1, (16.6) (35.8) STI (Singapore) 2, (1.2) (14.2) TWSE (Taiwan) 8, (7.3) VNI (Vietnam) Europe, USA and Ems CAC 40 (France) 4, (3.5) (7.9) DAX (Germany) 10, (4.2) (7.0) Dow Jones (USA) 17, FTSE 100 (UK) 6, (7.4) IBOV (Brazil) 50, (4.7) MEXBOL (Mexico) 46, NGSEINDX (Nigeria) 27,475.5 (0.4) (4.1) (18.2) Nasdaq (USA) 4,961.8 (0.1) (0.9) (1.2) RTSI (Russia) S&P 500 (USA) 2, XU100 (Turkey) 78,157.6 (0.6) Source: Bloomberg ETF, ADR & COMMODITIES Last Chg% ytd % y-y % EEM US (USD) (13.9) EIDO US (USD) (2.1) TLK US (IDR) 3, Como Index (USD) (13.7) Coal (USD/t) 55.4 (0.6) 9.5 (2.6) Corn (USD/mtn) Coffee (USD/t) 2, (0.9) Copper (USD/t) 4,589.0 (2.5) 7.3 (15.9) Cotton (USD/t) 1, CPO Rott (USD/t) (1.1) 7.9 (3.5) Gold (USD/oz.) 1,244.3 (0.1) Iron ore (USD/mtn) (25.2) Milk (USD/cwt) 13.8 (2.5) (11.6) (18.1) Nickel (USD/t) 8,565.0 (0.7) 9.2 (23.3) Oil Brent (USD/barrel) (18.7) Rice (IDR/kg) 5, Rubber (USD/t) (0.8) 12.9 (20.2) Silver (USD/oz) 16.4 (0.5) Soybean oil (USD/t) (0.7) 5.7 (7.2) Steel (USD/t) Sugar (USD/t) Tins (USD/t) 16, Wheat (USD/t) (8.9) Source: Bloomberg CURRENCIES & RATES Last Prev. Ytd % y-y % AUD/1USD (2.1) 3.5 EUR/1USD (4.4) (0.6) IDR/1USD 13,268 13, JPY/1USD SGD/1USD JIBOR (%) (2.7) (0.7) BI rate (%) (0.8) (0.8) TD 1 month (%) (0.7) (0.7) CDS (bps) Source: Bloomberg Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
2 POLITICS Ahok and PDI-P maintain relationship Following the current Jakarta Governor s(ahok) decision to run as an independent candidate in Jakarta's governor election next year, Ahok and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) are maintaining their relationship. Ahok stated that he was a close friend of Megawati (PDI-P chairwoman) but he would still run as an independent candidate; however, it is possible that his running mate may come from the PDI- P.(detik.com) KPK arrests Rokan Hulu Regent The Corruption Eradication Commission has arrested Rokan Hulu Regent, Suparman, related to the and revised regional budgets of Riau. (Bisnis Indonesia) ECONOMICS Govt: To cut 2016 economic growth forecast to 5.1%, inflation at 4% In yesterday s meeting with the parliament, the government decided to cut Indonesia s GDP growth target to 5.1% (previous: 5.3%), inflation to 4.05% (previous: 4.7%), SBN interest rate to 5.5% (previous: 5.5%) and exchange-rate assumption to IDR13,500/1USD (previous: 13,900/1USD). (Detikfinance). Bahana comment: Those changes are in line with our expectations with 5.1% GDP growth and 3.9% inflation in President wants to have price discounts during Lebaran season President Jokowi stated that he wants ministers to pursue a lower commodity price policy during the Lebaran season. He also stated, if prices in some countries could go down during Christmas season, there is no reason for us to have higher prices during the ramadhan season. (Kontan). Bahana comment: In our understanding, seasonally high Lebaran demand is driven by aggregate demand shifting, the only way to maintain the price is by increasing the aggregate supply. Hence, without a significant increase in overall supply of commodities, import would be inevitable. BI: Indonesia s May FX reserves amount to USD103.6bn, down 4% m-m Indonesia s official reserve assets position stood at USD103.6bn as of May 2016, lower than the end of April 2016 level registered at USD107.7bn, or down nearly 4% m-m. Despite the decline, the reserve assets position at the end of May 2016 can adequately cover 7.9 months of imports, or 7.6 months of imports and servicing of government external debt repayments, well above the international standards of reserves adequacy at 3 months of imports. Bank Indonesia considers the position of official reserve assets to still be able to strengthen the resilience of the external sector and maintain the sustainability of Indonesia s economic growth. (Bank Indonesia) Jokowi: To dismiss 120,000 employees and hire 60,000 next year President Joko Widodo stated that he would implement a civil-servant rationalization program naturally by retiring 120,000 and hiring 60,000 next year. This concept is currently being reviewed by the Ministry of Apparatus and Reformation. (detik.com) FIXED INCOME Moody s assigns Baa3 to Indonesia s planned EUR MTN issuance Moody's Service has assigned provisional (P)Baa3 senior unsecured debt ratings to eurodenominated bonds to be issued under the Government of Indonesia's (Baa3 stable) global medium-term note (MTN) program. Moody's expects to remove the provisional status of the rating upon the closing of the proposed issuance, and a review of the final terms. (IQ Plus) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 2
3 Government bond auction results The government has held bonds auction yesterday on series SPN (new issuance), SPN (new issuance), FR0053 (reopening), FR0056 (reopening) and FR0073 (reopening) with bid-to-cover ratios of 1.41x, 1.83x, 1.9x, 8.57x and 1.45x, respectively. The awarded bonds amount to IDR18.0tn, with an offering amount of IDR42.3tn. (Ministry of Finance) INDUSTRY Auto: 4W May wholesale sales reached 87.9k units, +11% y-y and +4% m-m Based on sales figures released by Gaikindo (4W association), May W wholesale sales reached 87.9k units (+11% y-y and +4% m-m), resulting in 5M16 wholesale sales of 439.8k units (-1% y-y). (Investor Daily, Bisnis Indonesia). Bahana comment: This is lower than our expectation as we expect W sales to reach 1.08mn, +7% y-y. Auto: 2W May sales reached 462k units, -1.7% y-y and -3.5% m-m Based on sales figures released by and AISI (2W association), May W sales reached 461.5k units (-1.7% y-y and -3.5% m-m). For individual brands, Honda s May 2W sales (ASII) reached 339k units (-2.7% m-m), reflecting a market share of 73.4%, while Yamaha booked sales of 112k units (-6.7% m-m), reflecting a market share of 24.2%. For 5M16, domestic 2W sales reached 2.4mn units, -6% y-y. (Bisnis Indonesia). Bahana Comment: This is lower than our expectation as we expect W sales to reach 6.5mn units, flat y-y. Cooking Oil: President targets a decrease of 5.5% in cooking-oil prices With the government taking several measures to reduce prices of beef and onions, cooking-oil prices are also planned to be reduced by 5.5% from current levels. They have asked to lower the price of cooking-oil from the current price ranging at IDR14,000-IDR16,000/kg to IDR12,500/kg. However, the government has not announced steps to take in achieving this target. Bahana comment: This could adversely affect margins of downstream CPO business, which currently already have very low margins at single digit levels. (Beritasatu) Property: Japanese company to invest IDR900bn in retail mall business The Investment Coordinating Board s (BKPM) Chief, Franky Sibarani, stated that currently a Japanese company is eyeing to invest IDR900bn in the retail mall business in the Greater Jakarta area. However, no further details have been disclosed. (Metrotvnews.com). Bahana comment: If the project were to materialize, competition in the sector will rise, although potentially a tie-up with a local player may provide opportunities for existing big-mall developers in the Greater Jakarta area such as Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ-BUY-IDR1,875-TP:IDR2,020), Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ-HOLD-IDR560), Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ- HOLD-IDR1,020-TP:1,050), Agung Podomoro Land (APLN IJ-REDUCE-IDR244-TP:IDR220) and Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ-BUY-IDR1,360-TP:1,520). Banks: June 2016, KUR disbursement has reached IDR46.7tn According to the Ministry of Cooperative and SME data, as of 3 June 2016 the realization of subsidized micro loans (KUR) disbursement, has reached around IDR46.7tn, or equivalent to 47% from the total budget allocation. Exhibit 1. KUR disbursement breakdown Banks KUR realizaiton KUR 2016 target (IDRbn) (IDRbn) % of Target BBRI 35,066 67, BMRI 6,365 13, BBNI 5,277 11, Bank Sinarmas 13 2, Maybank Indonesia BPD NTT BPD Kalbar Total 46, , Source: Kontan PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 3
4 Infrastructure: Construction of LRT to start on 22 June 2016 Contruction of LRT phase I, which connects Kelapa Gading and Ramawangun, is said to start on 22 June 2016 to support the expected increase in traffic due to Asian Games The construction of the LRT is reportedly to be supported by a Korean investor, Korea Railway Network Authority (KRNA). Ahok mentioned that the government plans to set aside IDR4.4tn from capital injection for the construction. (Kompas). Bahana comment: We expect WIKA will benefit from this project, which has total contract of IDR6tn. Aviation: KPPU to urge government to remove the floor ceiling of flight ticket fares The Business Competition Supervisor Commision (KPPU) has urged the Transportation Ministry to remove the regulation regarding the application of a floor ceiling on flight ticket fares of around 30% from the cap ceiling. KPPU thinks that the regulation would create a significant hike in flight ticket prices, especially during holiday season (i.e. Ramadhan). (Kontan) Infrastructure: Ahok plans to issue bonds to fund LRT projects Ahok, the Jakarta governor, wants to issue bonds to civilians to raise funds intended to be used for the development of the LRT project. This will only be realized if funds contributed for the reclamation are insufficient. (Kontan.co.id) Coal: ESDM sets June HBA price at USD51.8/mt, up 1.2% m-m The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) has set the June coal reference price (HBA) at USD51.8/mt, up 1.2% m-m. (ESDM) Electricity: ESDM Minister approves RUPTL The Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Sudirman Said, finally approved the electricity procurement business plan (RUPTL) proposed by the state-owned electricity firm, PLN. The final RUPTL includes key projects such as South Sumatera 9 and South Sumatera 10 (Sumsel 9&10) mine-mouth power plant projects and a high-voltage direct-current-transmission (HDVC) project linking Java and Sumatera, which was previously excluded by PLN from the electricity blueprint. The HDVS project is important to increase the reliability of electricity supply in Java and Sumatera. The ministry is also accommodating PLN s wish to develop up to 10,223MW of power plants under the planned 5-year program (previously 5,000MW). (Petromindo). Bahana comment: The inclusion of Sumsel 9&10 (3x600MW) into RUPTL should be a positive catalyst for Tambang Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ-BUY-IDR7,825) as the projects belong to the company and once completed in (expected), the plant will be required to have 8.4m mt coal supply from PTBA to generate electricity. Steel: The ministry of industry reviews safeguard implementation The ministry of industry is reviewing safeguard implementation of downstream steel products to anticipate many product imports from China. Additionally, SEAISI mentioned that Indonesia is the biggest consumer for steel-bar products with volume reaching 3m tons. (Bisnis Indonesia) CORPORATE ADRO signs share-sale agreement with BHP Billiton for 75% stake worth USD120m Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ-HOLD-IDR910) has signed a share-sale agreement for 75% of BHP Biliton s share in IndoMet Coal. The transaction is worth USD120m, well below the USD335m ADRO paid for a 25% stake in IndoMet in IndoMet holds 7 coal contracts of work (CcoW) in Central and Eastern Kalimantan, including a 1mn mt/year Haju mine, which began producing in. (Company, Reuters). BBRI postponing BRISat launch Arianespace has announced that there will be a delay in the launch of Bank Rakyat Indonesia s (BBRI IJ- HOLD-IDR10,650-TP:IDR11,000) satellite, due to technical problems. The company has estimated a delay of up to 5-10 days from the originally scheduled date (9 June 2016). (Detik) WSKT issues bonds with 9.25% coupon Waskita Karya (WSKT IJ-BUY-IDR2,470-TP:IDR2,700) issues bonds amounting to IDR2tn. Terms include a 9.25% coupon rate and 3 years term to maturity. 70% of the funds raised are to be used to fund its operations, while the outstanding amount is to fund its subsidiary. (Kontan.co.id) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 4
5 SMRA booked IDR1.4tn marketing sales in 5M16 In 5M16, Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ-BUY-IDR1,645-TP:IDR1,820) managed to book IDR1.4tn of marketing sales, mostly contributed by Summarecon Serpong (65.5% of total). The 5M16 marketing sales reached 31% of SMRA s full-year target of IDR4.5tn. (Bisnis Indonesia). Bahana comment: The 5M16 presales achievement reached 33% of our 2016 marketing sales target of IDR4.3tn, pretty much in-line. We believe the recent successful project launches were backed by its middle-low cost landed-houses projects with prices starting from IDR600mn-IDR1.2bn/unit. PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 5
6 BAHANA EQUITY COVERAGE, LEADERS & LAGGARDS (Daily) COMPANY STOCK CODE RATING TARGET PRICE Up/(Downside)(%) 05/03/ /02/2016 CHANGE (%) Timah TINS IJ REDUCE 411 (44.1) Adaro Energy ADRO IJ HOLD 645 (29.1) Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ REDUCE 13,626 (13.6) 15,775 14, Bukit Asam PTBA IJ BUY 7,800 (0.3) 7,825 7, Gajah Tunggal GJTL IJ BUY Ciputra Property CTRP IJ REDUCE 335 (37.4) Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN IJ BUY 3,500 (5.7) 3,710 3, Vale Indonesia INCO IJ REDUCE 1,400 (21.6) 1,785 1, Harum Energy HRUM IJ REDUCE 500 (44.1) London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP IJ BUY 1, ,585 1, Xl Axiata EXCL IJ BUY 4, ,750 3, Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS IJ HOLD 184 (23.3) Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ REDUCE 1, , Holcim Indonesia SMCB IJ REDUCE 850 (22.4) 1,095 1, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP IJ BUY 18, ,750 16, Surya Citra Media SCMA IJ REDUCE 2,800 (18.6) 3,440 3, Bank Mandiri BMRI IJ HOLD 9,300 (1.8) 9,475 9, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA IJ BUY 940 (1.6) Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP IJ HOLD 290 (40.8) Alam Sutera Realty ASRI IJ REDUCE 300 (25.4) Ace Hardware Indonesia ACES IJ BUY Agung Podomoro Land APLN IJ REDUCE 220 (11.3) Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat MIKA IJ REDUCE 1,900 (26.9) 2,600 2, Bank Jawa Barat dan Banten BJBR IJ HOLD 970 (4.9) 1,020 1, Medco Energi Internasional MEDC IJ BUY 1,300 (6.5) 1,390 1, Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG IJ REDUCE 4,000 (54.8) 8,850 8, Bank Danamon Indonesia BDMN IJ HOLD 3,300 (7.8) 3,580 3, Media Nusantara Citra MNCN IJ BUY 2, ,300 2, Bank Jawa Timur BJTM IJ REDUCE 430 (7.7) Siloam International Hospitals SILO IJ BUY 12, ,100 9, Matahari Putra Prima MPPA IJ BUY 1, ,315 1, Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG IJ REDUCE 5,750 (12.9) 6,600 6, Semen Indonesia SMGR IJ HOLD 8,900 (4.6) 9,325 9, Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ BUY 5, ,820 4, Unilever Indonesia UNVR IJ BUY 50, ,650 43, Sampoerna Agro SGRO IJ HOLD 1,800 (7.7) 1,950 1, Dharma Satya Nusantara DSNG IJ BUY Puradelta Lestari DMAS IJ BUY Semen Baturaja SMBR IJ REDUCE 400 (23.8) Bank Bukopin BBKP IJ REDUCE 540 (4.4) HM Sampoerna HMSP IJ BUY 115, ,800 99, Indonesian Stock Exchange JCI 4,934 4, Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM IJ BUY 4, ,910 3, Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI IJ BUY 4, ,080 4, Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA IJ BUY 270 (4.3) Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP IJ REDUCE 13,950 (16.0) 16,600 16, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS IJ BUY 1, Wijaya Karya Beton WTON IJ BUY 1, PP Property PPRO IJ HOLD 210 (45.9) Mayora Indah MYOR IJ BUY 37,000 (5.1) 39,000 38, Gudang Garam GGRM IJ BUY 88, ,350 70, Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI IJ HOLD 11, ,650 10, Waskita Karya WSKT IJ BUY 2, ,420 2, AKR Corporindo AKRA IJ BUY 9, ,150 6, Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS IJ BUY 3, ,530 2, Kalbe Farma KLBF IJ BUY 1, ,465 1, Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF IJ BUY 6,600 (10.2) 7,350 7, J Resources PSAB IJ BUY 1,400 (5.4) 1,480 1, Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE IJ BUY 2, ,875 1, Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP IJ BUY 4, ,810 3, Cardig Aero Services CASS IJ HOLD 1, ,000 1, Astra International ASII IJ REDUCE 5,650 (17.5) 6,850 6, Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional BTPN IJ REDUCE 2,100 (17.6) 2,550 2, Adhi Karya ADHI IJ BUY 3, ,610 2, Total Bangun Persada TOTL IJ BUY Matahari Department Store LPPF IJ BUY 20, ,250 19, Multipolar MLPL IJ BUY Sido Muncul SIDO IJ BUY Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI IJ BUY 1, ,450 1, Kimia Farma KAEF IJ BUY 1, ,190 1, Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA IJ BUY Aneka Tambang ANTM IJ REDUCE 207 (69.3) Merdeka Copper Gold MDKA IJ BUY 2, ,000 2, Austindo Nusantara Jaya ANJT IJ REDUCE 1,000 (44.1) 1,790 1, Malindo Feedmill MAIN IJ BUY 1, ,620 1, Pelayaran Tempuran Emas TMAS IJ BUY 3, ,600 1, Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR IJ BUY 5, ,250 4, Indosat ISAT IJ BUY 7, ,500 6, Erajaya Swasembada ERAA IJ BUY Adi Sarana Armada ASSA IJ BUY Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ HOLD 14, ,100 13,125 (0.2) Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN IJ HOLD 1,700 (0.6) 1,710 1,715 (0.3) Summarecon Agung SMRA IJ BUY 1, ,645 1,650 (0.3) United Tractors UNTR IJ BUY 18, ,300 14,350 (0.3) Electronic City ECII IJ REDUCE (0.4) Garuda Indonesia GIAA IJ REDUCE 400 (16.7) (0.4) Jasa Marga JSMR IJ BUY 6, ,500 5,525 (0.5) Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC IJ BUY 2, ,890 1,900 (0.5) Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estates BEST IJ REDUCE (0.7) Ciputra Development CTRA IJ BUY 1, ,360 1,370 (0.7) Anabatic Technologies ATIC IJ BUY (0.8) Tunas Baru Lampung TBLA IJ BUY 570 (0.9) (0.9) Lippo Cikarang LPCK IJ BUY 8, ,125 7,200 (1.0) Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE IJ BUY 1, (1.5) Express Transindo Utama TAXI IJ BUY (1.7) Pakuwon Jati PWON IJ HOLD 490 (12.5) (1.8) Soechi Lines SOCI IJ BUY (1.8) Wijaya Karya WIKA IJ BUY 3, ,640 2,690 (1.9) Sri Rejeki Isman SRIL IJ BUY (2.2) Krakatau Steel KRAS IJ REDUCE 275 (52.2) (2.5) Indomobil Sukses Internasional IMAS IJ HOLD 2, ,600 1,650 (3.0) Blue Bird BIRD IJ REDUCE 3,500 (15.5) 4,140 4,270 (3.0) Hero Supermarket HERO IJ REDUCE 650 (39.8) 1,080 1,140 (5.3) Source: Bloomberg, Bahana estimates JCI >5.0% <5%,>0.1% <0.1%,>-0.1% <-0.1%,>-5% <-5.0% PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 6
7 PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 7 Asiamoney's Source: Bloomberg, Bahana estimates Ticker Rating Price TP 3M avg to (IDR) (IDR) (IDRb) F 2016F 2017F F 2016F 2017F F 2016F 2017F F 2016F 2017F F 2016F 2017F F 2016F 2017F F 2016F 2017F F 2016F 2017F F 2016F 2017F F 2016F 2017F F 2016F 2017F F 2016F 2017F PX_LAST AVIATION N ,000 66,614 76,230 1,464 1,969 2,577 1,084 1,724 2,165 na (102.3) (91.7) (81.7) GIAA IJ* REDUCE ,368 64,708 74,084 1,050 1,474 2, ,582 2,005 na na (125.2) (108.1) (97.2) CASS IJ HOLD 1,000 1, ,632 1,905 2, AUTOMOTIVE UW , , ,650 18,260 20,636 22,738 13,750 19,236 21,338 (28.8) ASII IJ REDUCE 6,850 5, , , ,145 17,212 19,456 21,392 14,464 19,047 20,610 (24.6) IMAS IJ HOLD 1,600 2, ,010 19,770 21, (292) na na na na (5.3) (1.2) (1.6) GJTL IJ BUY ,833 13,932 15, ,031 1,117 (422) na na na na (7.7) (2.6) (3.6) BANKS UW , , , , , ,197 81,990 87,193 96, na na na na na na na na na BBCA IJ HOLD 13,100 14, ,413 54,667 58,922 22,657 25,089 27,636 18,019 20,051 22, na na na na na na na na na BBRI IJ HOLD 10,650 11, ,688 75,366 81,584 30,511 31,895 34,882 25,398 26,831 29, na na na na na na na na na BMRI IJ HOLD 9,475 9, ,316 71,421 78,060 26,339 26,240 29,089 20,335 20,058 22, (1.4) na na na na na na na na na BBNI IJ BUY 4,820 5, ,298 38,934 43,381 11,057 11,912 13,663 9,067 9,805 11,230 (15.9) na na na na na na na na na BDMN IJ HOLD 3,580 3, ,638 20,359 21,691 3,944 4,327 4,825 2,393 3,068 3,397 (8.1) na na na na na na na na na BTPN IJ REDUCE 2,550 2, ,460 9,056 10,343 2,460 2,204 2,438 1,702 1,572 1,804 (8.9) (7.6) na na na na na na na na na BBTN IJ HOLD 1,710 1, ,998 9,210 10,904 2,534 2,897 3,305 1,851 2,179 2, na na na na na na na na na BJBR IJ HOLD 1, ,987 7,568 8,164 1,736 1,989 2,221 1,381 1,565 1, na na na na na na na na na BJTM IJ REDUCE ,558 4,136 4,800 1,208 1,385 1, ,027 1,213 (5.8) na na na na na na na na na BBKP IJ REDUCE ,193 4,646 5,174 1,173 1,353 1, ,037 1, na na na na na na na na na CEMENT UW ,446 58,501 62,224 11,584 12,255 12,681 9,408 9,765 10,067 (20.3) SMGR IJ HOLD 9,325 8, ,948 27,634 29,189 5,899 5,924 6,020 4,521 4,688 4,781 (18.7) INTP IJ REDUCE 16,600 13, ,798 18,320 19,536 5,029 5,219 5,439 4,357 4,516 4,723 (17.7) nc nc nc SMCB IJ REDUCE 1, ,239 10,919 11, na na na na SMBR IJ REDUCE ,461 1,628 1, (12.5) nc nc nc COAL UW , , ,638 18,105 15,930 13,839 12,557 11,309 9, (9.9) (12.6) UNTR IJ BUY 14,300 18, ,968 49,619 51,535 8,357 8,192 8,437 6,847 6,383 6, (6.8) nc nc nc ADRO IJ* HOLD ,576 33,558 32,774 4,648 3,584 2,268 2,128 1,764 1, (17.9) (40.0) ITMG IJ* REDUCE 8,850 4, ,102 19,323 21,830 2,643 1, , (68.6) (17.4) (59.6) nc nc nc PTBA IJ BUY 7,825 7, ,734 15,832 15,981 2,414 2,774 2,547 2,036 2,198 1, (9.6) nc nc nc HRUM IJ* REDUCE ,710 3,518 3, (42) 0 (28) (95) (50) (1,000) (99.4) (25.6) (3.1) (4.5) (8.3) (0.6) nc nc nc 0.0 (0.7) (2.4) 0.0 (0.5) (1.8) 0.0 (2.5) (9.7) CONS. & TOLL ROADS N ,155 90, ,789 8,730 12,016 13,876 4,632 5,847 6, JSMR IJ BUY 5,500 6, ,646 8,712 9,598 3,235 3,685 3,753 1,466 1,540 1, (10.9) WIKA IJ BUY 2,640 3, ,150 14,875 17,597 1,297 1,718 2, (9.2) PTPP IJ BUY 3,810 4, ,909 20,378 24,313 1,695 2,223 2, , WSKT IJ BUY 2,420 2, ,153 23,984 27,788 1,415 2,438 2,854 1,048 1,401 1, WTON IJ BUY 945 1, ,570 4,160 5, (45.5) nc nc ADHI IJ BUY 2,610 3, ,390 16,177 21, ,232 1, (17.3) nc TOTL IJ BUY ,338 2,618 3, nc nc nc CONSUMER - DISCRE. N ,113 83,338 94,165 8,014 9,758 11,448 5,639 7,298 8,810 (10.2) SCMA IJ REDUCE 3,440 2, ,238 4,573 4,983 2,015 2,199 2,417 1,524 1,663 1, nc nc nc LPPF IJ BUY 19,250 20, ,007 10,383 12,119 2,330 2,702 3,158 1,781 2,170 2, nc nc nc na na na MNCN IJ BUY 2,300 2, ,445 6,985 7,645 2,194 2,529 2,840 1,186 1,685 2,007 (32.7) MPPA IJ BUY 1,315 1, ,929 15,592 17, (67.0) nc nc nc ACES IJ REDUCE ,743 5,137 5, nc nc nc HERO IJ REDUCE 1, ,353 16,257 18,590 (246) (43) 98 (29) na na na na (0.9) (16.3) (11.1) (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) RALS IJ BUY 855 1, ,786 8,284 8, (5.5) nc nc nc MAPI IJ BUY 4,080 4, ,833 14,254 16, , (52.8) ECII IJ REDUCE ,781 1,874 2,106 (5) (74.5) na nc nc nc CONSUMER - STAPLES OW , , ,720 49,832 53,965 61,447 34,038 37,427 42, HMSP IJ BUY 99, , ,069 97, ,376 14,048 14,253 16,717 10,363 11,161 12,806 (2.5) nc nc nc UNVR IJ BUY 43,650 50, ,484 40,257 45,540 7,944 8,943 10,108 5,852 6,612 7, nc nc GGRM IJ BUY 70,350 88, ,366 75,730 83,554 9,906 10,731 11,965 6,436 6,694 7, KLBF IJ BUY 1,465 1, ,887 19,300 20,943 2,647 2,812 3,080 2,004 2,167 2,400 (2.9) nc nc nc INDF IJ BUY 7,350 6, ,062 70,849 78,078 6,877 7,610 8,547 2,968 3,454 4,196 (23.6) ICBP IJ BUY 16,750 18, ,741 35,573 39,811 3,908 4,559 5,173 3,001 3,516 4, nc nc nc MYOR IJ BUY 39,000 37, ,819 16,390 18,550 1,862 2,035 2,322 1,219 1,320 1, TSPC IJ BUY 1,890 2, ,220 9,160 10, (0.7) nc nc nc SIDO IJ BUY ,268 2,424 2, nc nc nc ROTI IJ BUY 1,450 1, ,189 2,693 3, KAEF IJ BUY 1,190 1, ,070 5,754 6, MIKA IJ REDUCE 2,600 1, ,038 2,301 2, nc nc nc SILO IJ BUY 10,100 12, ,116 5,242 6, INDUSTRIAL ESTATES N ,515 12,069 13,698 4,443 4,988 5,652 3,407 3,929 4, DMAS IJ BUY ,286 1,299 1,711 1,859 1,368 1,705 1, nc nc nc KIJA IJ BUY ,140 3,223 3, , (18.4) BEST IJ REDUCE (46.0) (24.9) SSIA IJ BUY ,282 6,065 6, , LPCK IJ BUY 7,125 8, ,121 2,218 2, ,035 1, , nc nc nc INDUSTRY - Various ,542 92,424 37,858 (1,286) (22) 2,258 (3,408) (2,201) (1,545) na na na na na na (4.2) (0.7) (0.2) (2.1) (0.7) 0.0 (3.6) (0.9) 0.1 KRAS IJ* REDUCE ,341 20,947 0 (2,555) (1,635) 0 (3,047) (2,636) (2,513) na na na na na na na na na (16.9) (11.8) (12.7) (7.0) (5.1) (4.7) (8.9) (6.0) (5.6) ATIC IJ BUY ,626 2,964 3, (12.7) SRIL IJ BUY ,708 9,674 11,620 1,372 1,568 1, , MLPL IJ BUY ,867 19,695 22,203 (281) (172) 91 (1,205) (543) (242) na na na na na na nc (15.4) (7.8) (3.7) (5.3) (2.4) (1.0) (12.7) (6.0) (2.9) LAND TRANSPORTATION UW ,835 23,011 15,755 1,641 1,827 1, ,004 (0.7) BIRD IJ REDUCE 4,140 3, ,472 6,250 6,988 1,173 1,298 1, (2.0) TAXI IJ BUY ,040 1, (72.7) ASSA IJ BUY ,393 1,606 1, (20.4) METALS N ,345 25,401 28,013 1, ,125 (43) (331) 2,064 (101.9) (723.6) (1,265.2) (164.4) 26.4 (343.0) (0.1) (0.1) 2.3 (0.8) (1.2) 1.0 INCO IJ* REDUCE 1,785 1, ,060 8,036 8,736 1, (67.8) (83.8) nc nc nc ANTM IJ REDUCE ,519 10,632 12,362 (768) (647) 154 (1,209) (882) (157) (76.5) (63.2) (237.9) na na na (1,014.3) (8.6) (5.6) (1.0) (4.8) (3.1) (0.6) (5.9) (3.8) (0.7) TINS IJ REDUCE ,874 6,733 6, (85.9) (14.3) PSAB IJ* BUY 1,480 1, ,892 4,396 5,390 1,274 1,400 2, , MDKA IJ* BUY 2,000 2, (84) (140) 462 (98) (210) na na na na na na na na (9.0) (10.2) 11.4 (4.6) (6.9) 6.5 OIL & GAS N ,863 66,678 79,368 9,504 12,385 15,768 6,300 7,395 9,557 (35.3) PGAS IJ* BUY 2,530 3, ,966 38,528 45,052 7,910 8,260 10,766 5,614 5,880 7,952 (39.4) nc nc nc AKRA IJ BUY 6,150 9, ,344 18,832 22,965 1,345 1,837 1,720 1,047 1,338 1, (2.1) MEDC IJ* BUY 1,390 1, ,553 9,318 11, ,288 3,282 (361) (391.9) (150.9) 0.0 NA (3.1) (3.0) (1.0) (1.4) PLANTATIONS N ,272 42,766 45,776 6,078 6,637 7,275 2,109 2,955 3,952 (64.7) AALI IJ REDUCE 15,775 13, ,059 13,873 15,215 1,853 2,076 2, ,587 (75.3) SIMP IJ HOLD ,835 14,436 15,599 1,632 1,842 2, (69.1) LSIP IJ BUY 1,585 1, ,190 4,610 4, , (33.1) 19.8 (19.3) nc nc nc DSNG IJ BUY ,425 4,783 4, (59.0) (8.0) ANJT IJ* REDUCE 1,700 1, ,764 1,862 2, (112) na na na na (2.2) (1.8) SGRO IJ HOLD 1,950 1, ,999 3,202 3, (27.2) TBLA IJ BUY ,331 5,237 6, (58.0) (18.9) POULTRY N ,906 65,122 73,881 5,377 5,988 7,326 2,242 2,841 4, CPIN IJ BUY 3,710 3, ,108 32,462 37,351 3,443 3,798 4,773 1,837 2,119 3, JPFA IJ BUY ,023 27,555 30,809 1,728 1,950 2, ,075 na na na na MAIN IJ BUY 1,620 1, ,775 5,105 5, (63) na (180.0) (46.3) (4.8) (1.7) (2.2) PROPERTY UW ,468 49,958 54,565 15,347 16,910 18,324 8,105 10,789 12,060 (42.3) BSDE IJ BUY 1,875 2, ,210 7,523 8,403 2,901 3,457 3,804 2,139 2,694 3,023 (46.5) LPKR IJ REDUCE 1,020 1, ,910 10,055 10,615 1,727 2,542 2, ,654 1,857 (79.0) PWON IJ HOLD ,625 5,373 6,220 2,265 2,656 3,035 1,262 1,790 2,118 (49.8) SMRA IJ BUY 1,645 1, ,624 6,339 6,879 1,768 1,999 2, ,127 1,230 (38.3) CTRA IJ BUY 1,360 1, ,514 8,154 9,335 2,353 2,288 2,511 1,284 1,380 1,517 (3.1) ASRI IJ REDUCE ,784 3,039 3,061 1,628 1,674 1, (45.6) APLN IJ REDUCE ,972 5,769 5,934 1,688 1,351 1, (5.0) (19.7) CTRP IJ REDUCE ,325 1,917 2, (19.2) (8.9) PPRO IJ HOLD ,505 1,789 1, SHIPPING N ,106 5,638 6,072 1,029 1,414 1, ,072 1,277 (15.1) SOCI IJ BUY ,986 2,277 2, (3.8) 12.9 (1.2) TMAS IJ BUY 1,600 3, ,721 1,858 2, WINS IJ HOLD ,399 1,503 1, (80) (100.0) na na (2.7) (1.2) (1.7) TELCOS OW , , ,003 43,990 49,395 57,037 18,749 23,078 28,886 (2.6) TLKM IJ BUY 3,910 4, , , ,693 32,881 36,717 41,992 15,489 17,604 20, (2.5) EXCL IJ BUY 3,750 4, ,876 24,242 25,852 1,258 1,563 2,062 (25) 440 1,183 na na na na na na (0.2) (0.0) (0.1) TBIG IJ REDUCE 6,600 5, ,437 3,801 4,229 2,637 2,915 3,243 1,056 1,289 1,593 (18.8) TOWR IJ BUY 4,250 5, ,470 4,845 5,315 3,386 2,866 3,274 2,958 1,591 2, (46.2) ISAT IJ BUY 6,500 7, ,769 29,107 31,660 2,704 4,015 4,926 (1,310) 1,440 2, NA (10.0) (2.4) (4.0) TELE IJ BUY 655 1, ,040 29,578 34, , ERAA IJ BUY ,569 19,777 21, (0.6) Market N 3,210 1,692,664 1,851,698 2,042, , , , , , ,457 (7.2) Note: *USD reporting OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight ROIC (%) ROAA (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Net gearing (%) ROAE (%) Revenue (IDRb) Opt. profit (IDRb) Net profit (IDRb) EPS growth (%) PER (x)
8 FULL YEAR EARNINGS RELEASE (ESTIMATED) Ticker Corporate Date Time BBRI IJ Bank Rakyat Indonesia 1/26/ BBNI IJ Bank Negara Indonesia 1/29/ BDMN IJ Bank Danamon 1/29/ BJTM IJ Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur 1/29/ JSMR IJ Jasa Marga 2/5/ EXCL IJ XL Axiata 2/5/ BMRI IJ Bank Mandiri 2/9/ :00 ITMG IJ Indo Tambangraya Megah 2/16/ :00 LPPF IJ Matahari Department Store 2/17/ AALI IJ Astra Agro Lestari 2/23/ :00 BBTN IJ Bank Tabungan Negara 2/24/ :00 ASII IJ Astra International 2/24/ UNTR IJ United Tractors 2/24/ INCO IJ Vale Indonesia 2/24/ LSIP IJ PP London Sumatera Indonesia 2/25/ WSKT IJ Waskita Karya 2/25/ ADHI IJ Adhi Karya 2/25/ ANJT IJ Austindo Nusantara Jaya 2/25/ HERO IJ Hero Supermarket 2/26/ JPFA IJ Japfa 2/26/ IMAS IJ Indomobil Sukses International 2/26/ SMBR IJ Semen Baturaja 2/26/ SIMP IJ Salim Invomas Pratama 2/26/ SMGR IJ Semen Indonesia 2/29/ ANTM IJ Aneka Tambang 2/29/ PTBA IJ Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam 3/1/ :00 ANTM IJ Aneka Tambang 3/1/ TBIG IJ Tower Bersama Infrastructure 3/2/ BBCA IJ Bank Central Asia 3/3/ PTPP IJ PP Persero 3/3/ PGAS IJ Perusahaan Gas Negara 3/3/ :00 BTPN IJ Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional 3/3/ TLKM IJ Telekomunikasi Indonesia 3/4/ MPPA IJ Matahari Putra Prima 3/4/ TINS IJ Timah Persero 3/4/ KAEF IJ Kimia Farma 3/4/ SMCB IJ Holcim Indonesia 3/7/ :00 ADRO IJ Adaro Energy 3/8/ :00 BJBR IJ Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat 3/8/ WTON IJ Wijaya Karta Beton 3/10/ KRAS IJ Krakatau Steel 3/11/ WINS IJ Wintermar Offshore 3/11/ INTP IJ Indocement Tunggal Perkasa 3/16/ :00 TOTL IJ Total Bangun Persada 3/16/ WIKA IJ Wijaya Karya 3/17/ BSDE IJ Bumi Serpong Damai 3/17/ HMSP IJ H M Sampoerna 3/17/ :00 INDF IJ Indofood Sukses Makmur 3/18/ AKRA IJ AKR Corporindo 3/18/ GIAA IJ Garuda Indonesia 3/21/ SRIL IJ Sri Rejeki Isman 3/23/ PWON IJ Pakuwon Jati 3/24/ LPCK IJ Lippo Cikarang 3/24/ TBLA IJ Tunas Baru Lampung 3/24/ MDLN IJ Modernland Realty 3/24/ LPKR IJ Lippo Karawaci 3/24/ SCMA IJ Surya Citra Media 3/24/ TOWR IJ Sarana Menara Nusantara 3/24/ ROTI IJ Nippon Indosari Corpindo 3/24/ SIDO IJ Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul 3/24/ SILO IJ Siloam International Hospitals 3/24/ BIRD IJ Blue Bird 3/24/ KLBF IJ Kalbe Farma 3/28/ GGRM IJ Gudang Garam 3/29/ CPIN IJ Charoen Pokphand Indonesia 3/30/ PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 8
9 FULL YEAR EARNINGS RELEASE (ESTIMATED) Ticker Corporate Date Time GJTL IJ Gajah Tunggal 3/30/ MYOR IJ Mayora Indah 3/30/ SMRA IJ Summarecon Agung 3/30/ UNVR IJ Unilever Indonesia 3/30/ KIJA IJ Kawasan Industri Jababeka 3/30/ ISAT IJ Indosat 3/30/ MEDC IJ Medco Energi International 3/30/ CTRA IJ Ciputra Development 3/30/ SSIA IJ Surya Semesta Internusa 3/30/ PSAB IJ J Resources Asia Pasifik 3/30/ TMAS IJ Pelayaran Tempuran Emas 3/30/ MNCN IJ Media Nusantara Citra 3/30/ MAIN IJ Malindo Feedmill 3/30/ ASRI IJ Alam Sutera 3/30/ HRUM IJ Harum Energy 3/30/ CASS IJ Cardig Aero Service 3/30/ ERAA IJ Erajaya Swasembada 3/30/ TELE IJ Tiphone Mobile Indonesia 3/30/ TAXI IJ Express Transindo Utama 3/30/ ASSA IJ Adi Sarana Armada 3/30/ SOCI IJ Soechi Lines 3/30/ PPRO IJ PP Properti 3/31/ DMAS IJ Puradelta Lestari 3/31/ MIKA IJ Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat 3/31/ MDKA IJ Merdeka Copper Gold 3/31/ ATIC IJ Anabatic Technologies 3/31/ Source: Bloomberg, Bahana PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 9
10 AGM & EGM SCHEDULE Corporate Actions Ticker Corporate Date Time AEGM KREN IJ Kresna Graha Sekurindo 6/15/ 14:00 AEGM ASDM IJ Asuransi Dayin Mitra 6/15/ 08:00 AEGM GSMF IJ Equity Development Investment 6/15/ 10:30 AEGM SRAJ IJ Sejahteraraya Anugrahjaya 6/15/ 10:00 AEGM PTSP IJ Pioneerindo Gourmet International 6/15/ 10:00 AEGM CLPI IJ Colorpak Indonesia 6/15/ 10:00 AEGM UNSP IJ Bakrie Sumatera Plantations 6/15/ 10:00 AEGM DGIK IJ Nusa Konstruksi Enjiniring 6/15/ 09:00 AEGM INTD IJ Inter Delta 6/15/ 10:00 AEGM APII IJ Arita Prima Indonesia 6/15/ 09:00 AGM ARGO IJ Argo Pantes 6/15/ 10:00 AEGM MGNA IJ Magna Finance 6/15/ 14:00 AGM RICY IJ Ricky Putra indo 6/15/ 09:30 AGM JPRS IJ Jaya Pari Steel 6/16/ 10:00 AGM SRSN IJ Indo Acidatama 6/16/ 14:00 AGM KONI IJ Perdana Bangun Pusaka 6/16/ 09:00 AEGM AISA IJ Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food 6/16/ 10:00 AGM GDST IJ Gunawan Dianjaya Steel 6/16/ 09:00 AEGM MBTO IJ Martina Berto 6/16/ 10:00 AEGM ADMG IJ Polychem Indonesia 6/16/ 14:00 AGM BTON IJ Betonjaya Manunggal 6/16/ 09:30 AEGM OKAS IJ Ancora Indonesia Resources 6/16/ 10:00 AGM POOL IJ Pool Advista Indonesia 6/16/ 11:00 AEGM POLY IJ Asia Pacific Fibers 6/16/ 10:30 AGM ALDO IJ Alkindo Naratama 6/16/ 13:30 AEGM RIMO IJ Rimo Catur Lestari 6/17/ 14:00 AEGM RANC IJ Supra Boga Lestari 6/17/ 14:00 AEGM ALTO IJ Tri Banyan Tirta 6/17/ 11:30 Source: Bloomberg PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 10
11 Actual and upcoming IPOs, - No Code Date Company name Industry Amount Public (IDRbn) (%) 1 BBRM 01/08/13 Pelayaran Nasional Bina Buana Shipping HOTL 01/10/13 Saraswati Griya Lestari Hotel SAME 01/11/13 Sarana Meditama Metropolitan Hospital Management MAGP 01/16/13 Multi Agro Gemilang Plantations TPMA 02/20/13 Trans Power Marine Transportation ISSP 02/22/13 Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Pipes manufacturer DYAN 03/25/13 Dyandra Media International Entertainment ANJT 05/08/13 Austindo Nusantara Jaya Plantation NOBU 05/20/13 Bank Nationalnobu Banking MPMX 05/29/13 Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Automotive 1, DSNG 06/14/13 Dharma Satya Nusantara Plantations SRIL 06/17/13 Sri Rejeki Isman (Sritex) Textile 1, ACST 06/24/13 Acset Indonesia Construction SRTG 06/26/13 Saratoga Investa Sedaya Finance 1, NRCA 06/27/13 Nusa Raya Cipta Construction SMBR 06/28/13 Semen Baturaja Cement 1, ECII 07/03/13 Electronic City Indonesia Retail 1, BBMD 07/08/13 Bank Mestika Dharma Banking MLPT 07/08/13 Multipolar Technology IT VICO 07/08/13 Victoria Investama Finance CPGT 07/09/13 Cipaganti group Transportation NAGA 07/09/13 Bank Mitraniaga Banking BMAS 07/11/13 Bank Maspion Banking SILO 09/12/13 Siloam Hospital Hospital 1, APII 10/29/13 Arita Prima Indonesia Pipe Manufacture KRAH 11/08/13 Grand Kartech Manufacturing IMJS 12/10/13 Indomobil Multi Jasa Auto finance LEAD 12/11/13 Logindo Samudramakmur Marine services SSMS 12/12/13 Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Plantations 1, SIDO 12/18/13 Sido Muncul Pharmaceutical total 16, PNBS 01/15/14 Bank Panin Syariah Banking ASMI 01/16/14 Mitra Maparya Insurance CANI 01/16/14 Capitol Nusantara Transporation BINA 01/16/14 Bank INA Banking BALI 03/13/14 Bali Towerindo Sentra Construction WTON 04/08/14 Wika Beton Construction material 1, BLTZ 04/10/14 Graha Layar Prima Entertainment MDIA 04/11/14 Intermedia Capital Entertainment LRNA 04/15/14 Eka Sari Lorena Transport Transportation DAJK 05/14/14 Dwi Aneka Jaya Kemasindo Paper manufacture LINK 02/06/14 Link Net Telecommunication CINT 06/27/14 Chitose Internasional Manufacture MGNA 07/07/14 Magna Finance Finance BPII 07/08/14 Batavia Prosperindo Internasional Finance MBAP 07/10/14 Mitrabara Adiperdana Coal TARA 07/11/14 Sitara Propertindo Property DNAR 07/11/14 Bank Dinar Bank BIRD 11/05/14 Blue Bird Transportation 2, SOCI 12/03/14 Soechi Lines Shipping IMPC 12/17/14 Impack Pratama Industri Packaging IBFN 12/22/14 Intan Baruprana Finance Finance AGRS 12/22/14 Bank Agris Banking GOLL 12/23/14 Golden Plantation Plantation total 9, Airasia Indonesia Airlines 1, Andira Agro Plantations 56 Asia Mangan Group Mining Bank DKI Banking 58 Bank Kesejahteraan Ekonomi Banking 59 Bank Muamalat Banking 60 Bank Sumatera Utara Banking Bank Syariah Mandiri Banking 62 Daya Mitra Telekomunikasi Telecommunication Daya Mandiri Resources Indonesia Coal mining 64 GMF Aero Asia Target Aero services 65 Indoprima Gemilang Auto-parts 66 Infomedia Nusantara Services 67 Intan Baruprana Finance Multi-finance 68 Kawasan Berikat Nusantara Industrial estates 69 Krakatau Wijatama Steel manufacture 70 Pacific Agro Sentosa Plantations 1, Pegadaian Indonesia Finance 72 Pelita Cengkareng Paper Packaging manufacture 73 Perkebunan Nusantara III, IV and VII Plantations 74 Pertamina Drilling Services Indonesia Oil-related 75 Pertamina Hulu Energi Oil-related 76 Pertamina Gas Gas distribution 77 Pertamina Geothermal Energy Electricity 78 PLN Batam Electricity 79 Pos Indonesia Logistics 80 Pos Logistik Logistics 81 Puradelta Lestari Property 2, Semen Batam Cement 83 Siba Surya Logistics Sriboga Raturaya Restaurant 500 total 7,818 Source: various media (Bloomberg, Kontan, Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily, Jakarta Globe, Jakarta Post, Kompas, Indonesian Finance Today) PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 11
12 Research: Harry Su Senior Associate Director Head of Corporate Strategy & Research Consumer, Strategy ext 3600 Teguh Hartanto Associate Director Deputy Head of Research Banks, Cement, Aviation ext 3610 Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA Senior Research Manager Auto, Infrastructure, Telco Toll roads ext 3608 Arandi Ariantara Coal, Metals, Oil & Gas ext 3619 Fakhrul Fulvian Economist ext 3602 Bagus Adi Yoga Prawira Consumer, Media ext 3604 Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo Industrial Estate, Property ext 3611 Renaldy Effendy Consumer, Healthcare ext 3606 Muhammad Wafi Technical Analyst ext 3609 Yudi Tandi Anugrah Transportation, Shipping ext 3613 Steven Santoso Plantation, Poultry ext 3616 Adeline Solaiman Auto, Telco ext 3620 Mardy Oramahi Alhusnah ext 3621 Amanda Christine Liu Auto, Construction, Telco ext 3605 Nyoman Widita Prabawa Research Associate ext 3622 Sarah Jessica Hutapea Research Associate ext 3693 Gilang Purnama Research Associate ext 3601 Made Ayu Wijayati Research Executive ext 3607 Zefanya Halim CA Manager ext 3612 Novianty Permata Sari CA ext 3618 Dealing Room: (Foreign ) (Domestic ) (Surabaya Branch) Natalia Surjadiputra natalia@bahana.co.id Director of Sales & Client Relationship Management ext 2500 Kartika Sutandi, CFA kartika.sutandi@bahana.co.id Head of Equity Sales ext 2590 Ashish Agrawal ashish@bahana.co.id Vice President Equity Sales ext 2550 / 2553 Yohanes Adhi Handoko yohanes@bahana.co.id Manager, Surabaya Branch ext 7250 Amelia Husada amelia@bahana.co.id Vice President Equity Sales ext 2552 John M. Dasaad dasaad@bahana.co.id Equity Sales ext 2549 Suwardi Widjaja Suwardi@bahana.co.id Equity Sales ext 2548 Bram Taarea bram@bahana.co.id Equity Sales ext 2524 Alvin Gunawan alvin.gunawan@bahana.co.id Equity Sales ext 2591 Ari Santosa ari.santosa@bahana.co.id Sales Trader ext 2554 Hanna Marionda hanna@bahana.co.id Sales Trader ext 2525 Adriana Kosasih adri@bahana.co.id Sales Executive ext 2541 Head Office Surabaya Branch Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda Jakarta Surabaya Indonesia Indonesia Tel Tel Fax Fax PT Bahana Securities Equity Research Bahana Beacon - The Daily 12
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Surya Citra Media: Big jump in 1Q18 advertising revenues (SCMA IJ. IDR 2,360. BUY. TP IDR 3,100) SCMA s 1Q18 revenues and net profits are inline, both numbers reaching 22.6% of our
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Bank Tabungan Negara: A Mortgage-driven Bank (BBTN IJ. IDR 3,470. BUY. TP IDR 4,000) We continue to like BBTN, noting its resilient business model on mortgages. Subsidized mortgages
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Bank Rakyat Indonesia: More KUR, No Problem (BBRI IJ. IDR 3,440. BUY. TP IDR 3,900) We reiterate our BUY call on BBRI with a higher TP of IDR3,900 as we believe that the government
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Plantation: Still Under Pressure in the Short-Term (Neutral) We reduce our FY18 CPO price assumption to MYR2,450/ton (from MYR2,700/ton) as we expect CPO prices to remain under pressure
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Astra International: Sturdy coal prices enhanced profit (ASII IJ. IDR 7,325. BUY. TP IDR 9,100) Astra International (ASII) reported net profit of IDR4.98tn in 1Q18 (+6.0% qoq, but
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Adaro Energy: Unfavorable weather hit the performance (ADRO IJ. IDR 1,995. BUY. TP IDR 2,800) Adaro Energy (ADRO) reported net profits of USD74mn in 1Q18 (- 32.8% qoq, -23.4% yoy).
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Plantation: Sep 17 Stockpile Breaches 2mn tons (NEUTRAL) Malaysia s palm oil stockpile rose to 2.02mn tons in Sep 17 (+30.5% YoY, +4.0% MoM), breaching the 2.0mn tons mark, due to
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Bank Rakyat Indonesia: A Retail-driven Bank (BBRI IJ. IDR 3,230. BUY. TP IDR 4,350) We maintain our BUY call on BBRI with an unchanged TP of IDR4,350 after the company announced net
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Pembangunan Perumahan: Title Higher capital for higher growth (PTPP IJ. Rp3,760. BUY. TP Rp5,700) PTPP s subsidiaries will conduct 4 corporate actions in 2017 following PTPP s rights
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Bumi Serpong Damai: Right on Track (BSDE IJ. IDR 1,750. BUY. TP IDR 1,930) We believe that BSDE will record indicative marketing sales of ~Rp3.5tn in 1H18, largely in-line. In 2H18,
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Buyung Poetra Sembada: A volume play (HOKI IJ. Not Rated) Sales of Topi Koki rice improved in the last two months of 2017, reflecting the limited number of players in the rice business,
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Media Sector (Initiation): More bullish on FTA TV ad spending in 2018 (OVERWEIGHT) We are positive on the outlook for the media sector next year given: 1) FTA TV ad spending will improve
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Garuda Maintenance Facility: Heading in the right direction (GMFI IJ. IDR 386. BUY. TP IDR 480) Garuda Maintenance Facility Aero Asia Tbk (GMFI) is the largest maintenance, repair,
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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH Plantation: Temporary Suspension of Malaysia CPO Export Duty (Neutral) We expect a short-term boost for exports and CPO prices in 1Q17 as a result of Malaysia s decision to temporarily
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