Hunting for values. Source: Mandiri Sekuritas, Companies
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- Garry Weaver
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1 STRATEGY Strategy 12 June 2014 THE BOTTOM LINE Strategy Update 3 August 2015 Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst John Rachmat john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id UNDERWEIGHT TOP PICKS Last 2015F (Rp) PE EPS Gr. TLKM 2, % SMRA 1, % PWON % BJBR % SOCI % SRIL % LSIP 1, % AALI 19, % MPPA 2, % As of: 3 August 2015 Hunting for values The JCI has fallen 13% from its high this year, allowing us to look for values. We compare how the consensus forecasts for 2015 EPS had changed (from end Dec 2014 to end Jul 2015) to stock price movement YTD. Amongst the clear values are ADHI, BBTN, MPPA, SOCI and WIIM. MPPA replaces ULTJ in our Top Picks. FIGURE 1. QUARTERLY RESULTS VS CONSENSUS FORECAST STILL WEAK AT 1H15 STAGE FY13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 FY14 Q1-15 1H15 Source: Mandiri Sekuritas, Companies ABOVE IN-LINE BELOW Clear values in our view are those stocks whose prices declined even though the consensus have raised their 2015 EPS forecast : ADHI, BBTN, MPPA, SOCI, WIIM. The consensus also raised their forecasts on a raft of property counters ASRI, BSDE, CTRA, SMRA and SSIA. Given the uncertain sector outlook, however, we are not confident with these upgrades. Not so clear cut value are those stocks whose stock prices have fallen by more than double the rate of decline in their consensus 2015 earnings forecast : ADRO, BBRI, GGRM, ICBP, INTP, ITMG, PWON, SMGR and TSPC. These do not offer clear-cut values to us because it may be that the market views the forecast cuts to be insufficiently deep. Potentially over-valued in our opinion are those stocks whose prices had risen even though the consensus cut their 2015 EPS forecasts : APLN, ISAT, LPPF, MYOR, TELE, and ULTJ. In our view, the consensus cuts on LPPF, TELE and ULTJ are not justified by their reasonable performance at the 1H15 stage. Country rating remains Under Weight. Our Mansek Universe currently trades at 15.2x 2015 PER and 12.9x 2016 PER even though our research team project 9.1% EPS growth only for We reiterate our year end JCI target of 4,500. Those emerging values we note above should therefore be taken with caution. Please see important disclosure at the back of this report
2 Reviewing Mansek Top Picks The defensive stocks we selected did well TLKM, SMRA, PWON and ULTJ, except for BJBR (stock price down 10.7% since inclusion into our Top Picks). Yet BJBR s 1H15 performance is commendable (22% YoY EPS growth). Our dollar theme did badly AALI, LSIP and SOCI all fell by 10 to 24% since inclusion into our Top Picks. Yet there is increasing evidence that El Nino bites hard this year it is just that its effect on CPO price has not materialised yet. The consensus has also raised its 2015 EPS forecasts on SOCI whereas SRIL, the other dollar earner, did very well rising 37.8% since its inclusion into our Top Picks. We replace ULTJ with MPPA, in search for more trading liquidity. MPPA s net profits seem to fluctuate wildly but this is caused by a one-off gain in Stripping this gain shows a strong performance of 17% YoY growth in its 1H15 core earnings. FIGURE 2. MANSEK TOP PICKS Ticker Company's Name 3-Aug-15 Starting s PER 2015F (x) 2015 EPS Growth Target TLKM Telekomunikasi Indonesia 2,920 2, % 21, % 2,900 SMRA Summarecon Agung 1,820 1, % 1, % 2,000 ULTJ Ultra Jaya Milk (dropped) 3,875 3, % % 5,100 PWON Pakuwon Jati % 1, % 620 BJBR BPD Jawa Barat dan Banten % % 1,100 SOCI Soechi Lines % % 880 SRIL Sri Rejeki Isman % % 375 LSIP London Sumatra Plantations 1,320 1, % % 2,700 AALI Astra Agro Lestari 19,800 23, % 2, % 30,800 MPPA Matahari Putra Prima (Addition) 2,800 1, % 4,170 MANSEK TOP BUY PORTFOLIO ,000.0 (-15.2% from 30 December 2014) Jakarta Composite Index 4, ,226.9 (-8.2% from 30 December 2014) Source: Companies, Mandiri Sekuritas Matahari Putra Prima (MPPA; Rp2,800; Neutral; TP:Rp4,170) By Matthew Wibowo FIGURE 3. FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F EBITDA ,073 1,344 1,553 Net Profit Fully-Diluted EPS (Rp) Fully-Diluted EPS Gr. (%) P/E Ratio (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B Ratio (x) Dividend Yield (%) ROAE (%) Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 7
3 Within expectation. MPPA had slight top line growth with revenue Rp6.9tn (+7%yoy) and adjusted core profit of Rp181bn (+17%yoy) at the 1H15 stage. It is worth noting that MPPA had one time gain in 2Q14 amounting Rp86bn from rental refund due to divestment of non-core business in We deem the result is still within expectation as 3yrs average 1H historical core profit achievement was 30%. Gross margin improved as result of better trade terms with the suppliers and increase in operating level was from higher in store efficiency. Performance fluctuation from extraordinary item. MPPA divested Timezone, Times bookstore, restaurant and property business in As a result of the transaction, the company had extraordinary income of Rp220bn and Rp86bn in 2Q13 and 2Q14 respectively due to rental refund. Thus, in comparison of MPPA performance, core profit is a more apple to apple comparison particularly for period. Lebaran seasonality more focused in July. Similar to other retailers despite more Lebaran days in June, more spending took place in July. The reason being Lebaran bonuses were only being distributed in early July which should boost customers spending during the month. Thus, we expect to be better quarter in 3Q15 compare to previous ones. Maintain Target Rp4,170. At this juncture, we still maintain our TP Rp4,170 reflecting 29x FY16. We are reviewing our Neutral rating. FIGURE 4. MPPA 1H15 RESULT REVIEW Rpbn 2Q15 1Q15 Q-o-Q 2Q14 Y-o-Y 1H15 1H14 Y-o-Y % of Mansek Revenue 3,507 3,348 5% 3,301 6% 6,855 6,427 7% 44% 42% Gross profit % 555 9% 1,204 1,085 11% 46% 44% Operating Profit % % % 29% 30% Pre-tax profit % % % 27% 29% Net profit % % % 28% 28% Core profit % 95 1% % 29% 29% % of Cons Margins Gross 17.3% 17.8% 16.8% 17.6% 16.9% Operating 3.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.0% Pre-tax 3.4% 3.1% 5.9% 3.3% 4.2% Net profit 2.7% 2.4% 4.6% 2.6% 3.2% Core profit 2.7% 2.6% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates, Bloomberg FIGURE 5. REVENUE BY QUARTER FIGURE 6. NET PROFIT BY QUARTER 100% 100% 90% 80% 27% 27% 26% 90% 80% 31% 28% 36% 70% 70% 60% 50% 28% 27% 27% 60% 50% 35% 22% 27% 40% 30% 20% 24% 24% 24% 22% 40% 30% 20% 23% 36% 27% 15% 10% 0% 22% 22% 23% 21% 10% 0% 11% 14% 9% 13% F F 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 7
4 FIGURE 7. MANSEK UNIVERSE 1Q15 AND 2Q15 PERFORMANCE, CONSENSUS FORECAST CHANGES AND STOCK PRICE MOVEMENT YEAR-TO-DATE 1H15 Results vs Cons NET PROFIT NET PROFIT REVENUE REVENUE Consensus Forecast 2015 EPS Movement 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 1Q14 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 1Q14 30 Dec Jul Dec 14 AALI 2,309.6 BELOW , , , , , , ,250 19, ACES IN-LINE , , , , ADHI IN-LINE , , , , ,480 2, (5.02) ADRO 1,350.5 N/A N/A N/A , AISA BELOW , , , , ,095 1, ANTM N/A N/A ,683.5 N/A 2, , , APLN BELOW , , , (0.77) ASII 20,091.8 BELOW 4, , , , , , , , ,425 6, ASRI BELOW , (5.94) BBCA 24,198.4 IN-LINE 4, , , , , , , , ,125 13, (0.27) BBNI 6,651.4 BELOW , , , ,993.3 N/A 11, , ,100 4, (6.98) BBRI 19,095.8 IN-LINE 5, , , , , , , , , , ,650 10, BBTN ABOVE , , , , ,205 1, (0.77) BDMN 3,017.4 BELOW , , , , ,525 4, BEST BELOW BJBR BELOW ,326.1 N/A 2, , BJTM BELOW ,064.0 N/A 1, (0.06) BKSL N/A N/A N/A BSDE 2,510.8 IN-LINE , , , , , ,805 1, BTPN 1,384.4 BELOW , , , , ,950 3, CPIN 3,144.7 BELOW , , , , ,780 2, CTRA 1,218.9 BELOW , , , , ,250 1, (3.46) CTRS ABOVE ,960 2, DMAS ABOVE N/A N/A N/A N/A #NAME? #NAME? N/A #NAME? 4,415 N/A #VALUE! DYAN 29.1 ABOVE #N/A N/A #N/A N/A N/A #VALUE! ERAA IN-LINE , , , , , EXCL 1,946.6 N/A N/A ,034.2 N/A 5, , ,865 3, GGRM 7,037.2 BELOW 1, , , , , , , , , , ,700 49, HEXA BELOW ,505 2, #DIV/0! HRUM BELOW ,660 1, ICBP 5,463.9 ABOVE , , , , ,100 12, Aug 15 Ratio of to Cons. EPS Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 4 of 7
5 1H15 Results vs Cons NET PROFIT NET PROFIT REVENUE REVENUE Consensus Forecast 2015 EPS Movement 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 1Q14 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 1Q14 30 Dec Jul Dec 14 IMAS BELOW , , , , ,000 3, INCO 1,416.8 BELOW ,625 1, INDF 3,902.2 BELOW , , , , , ,750 6, INTP 5,467.3 IN-LINE 1, , , , , , , , , , ,000 20, ISAT 1,730.8 N/A N/A ,839.9 N/A 6, , ,050 4, (0.19) ITMG N/A N/A N/A ,375 9, JPFA BELOW , , , , JRPT 1,044.0 ABOVE #N/A N/A N/A 1,040 1, #VALUE! JSMR 2,845.9 BELOW , , , , ,050 5, KLBF 5,937.5 BELOW , , , , ,830 1, LPCK ABOVE , , ,400 8, (0.83) LPPF 3,759.7 ABOVE , , , , ,000 17, (3.52) LSIP BELOW , , , ,890 1, MAIN N/A N/A ,216.6 N/A 1, , ,130 1, MAPI BELOW , , , , ,075 4, MDLN BELOW MNCN 2,258.0 BELOW , , , , ,540 2, MPPA 1,115.4 IN-LINE , , , , ,050 2, (0.94) MYOR 1,874.1 ABOVE , , , , ,900 28, (6.72) PGAS 7,182.7 N/A N/A N/A ,000 4, PNBN 1,811.0 BELOW ,392.3 N/A 4, , ,165 1, PTBA 1,015.7 ABOVE , , , , ,500 5, PTPP 1,382.8 N/A N/A ,603.5 N/A 1, , ,575 3, PWON 1,484.0 BELOW , , , RALS IN-LINE , , , , RANC 41.1 BELOW #N/A N/A N/A #VALUE! SCMA 3,065.1 N/A N/A ,193.5 N/A ,500 2, SGRO BELOW ,100 1, SIDO ABOVE SMCB N/A N/A ,572.0 N/A 2, , ,185 1, SMGR 4,327.8 BELOW , , , , , , , , ,200 9, SMRA 1,944.7 N/A N/A ,038.5 N/A ,520 1, Aug 15 Ratio of to Cons. EPS Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 5 of 7
6 1H15 Results vs Cons NET PROFIT NET PROFIT REVENUE REVENUE Consensus Forecast 2015 EPS Movement 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 1Q14 2Q15 2Q14 1Q15 1Q14 30 Dec Jul Dec 14 SOCI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A (1.38) SRIL N/A N/A N/A #DIV/0! SSIA N/A N/A , ,262.5 N/A 1, , (5.03) TAXI BELOW , TBIG 2,949.0 N/A N/A N/A ,700 8, TELE IN-LINE , , , , (0.42) TLKM 21,131.2 BELOW 3, , , , , , , , ,865 2, (3.05) TOWR 2,871.9 N/A N/A N/A 1, ,150 3, TSPC BELOW , , , , ,865 1, ULTJ ABOVE , , , ,720 3, (0.28) UNTR 5,498.5 IN-LINE 1, , , , , , , , , , ,350 19, UNVR 21,971.6 BELOW 1, , , , , , , , ,300 38, WIIM 72.5 BELOW (1.37) WIKA 1,207.6 BELOW , , , , ,680 2, WSKT 1,502.5 ABOVE , , , , ,433 1, WTON BELOW ,300 1, Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates, Bloomberg 03 Aug 15 Ratio of to Cons. EPS Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 6 of 7
7 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Research), (Equity Sales) RESEARCH John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal & Metal Mining ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Matthew Wibowo Retail, Textile matthew.wibowo@mandirisek.co.id Rizky Hidayat Property, Industrial, Media rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id Vanessa Ariati Tanuwijaya Banking, Health Care vanessa.tanuwijaya@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Shipping, Construction aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Aldian Taloputra Economist aldian.taloputra@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putra Rinaldy Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id Yudha Gautama Research Assistant yudha.gautama@mandirisek.co.id Kevin Halim Research Assistant kevin.halim@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Institutional Sales jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Institutional Sales janefer.soelaiman@mandirisek.co.id Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Institutional Sales karmia.tandjung@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Vera Ongyono Institutional Sales vera.ongyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohan Setio, CFA Institutional Sales yohan.setio@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Boy Triyono Plaza Mandiri boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Pondok Indah boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohanes Triyanto Kelapa Gading yohanes.triyanto@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Mangga Dua hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas'ari Bandung indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yogiswara P. Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id Widodo Solo widodo@mandirisek.co.id Linawati Surabaya Linawati@mandirisek.co.id Bambang Suwanto Malang bambang.suwanto@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan Tiara ruwie@mandirisek.co.id Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the the last published report, are: Buy (10% or higher), Neutral (-10% to10%) and Sell (-10% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number or fax ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.
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