FOCUS Bank Tabungan Negara Company Update 26 July 2016

Transcription

1 FOCUS Bank Tabungan Negara Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst Tjandra Lienandjaja Priscilla Thany Sector : Banking 1H16 Results: In Line with Expectations BBTN reported 1H16 net income of Rp1.tn, +25yoy, and 2Q16 net income of Rp551bn, +29yoy/+12qoq. Strong net income growth was mainly driven by net interest income at +16yoy as loans grew by +18yoy. NPL improved to Q16 2Q15 YoY Implied 2Q16F Above/below of Cons Mansek Cons Mansek Total Income 2,21 1, ,83 2, Operating Profit Net Income BUY Current Price Rp1,885 Price Target Rp2,15 (+14.1) 52-wk range Rp1,9 - Rp935 Stock Data Bloomberg Code BBTN IJ Mkt.Cap (Rp bn/us$ mn) 19,962 / 1,517 Issued Shares (mn) 1,59 Avg. Daily T/O (Rp bn/us$ mn) 36.7/2.8 Major shareholder Gov of Indonesia 6. Public 4. EPS consensus Mansek Cons Diff 216F F F Share price performance 3m 6m 12m Absolute Relative to JCI BBTN reported 1H16 net profit of Rp1.n, +25yoy, accounting for 46 of FY16 consensus and 43 of our full year expectations. Meanwhile, 2Q16 net income stood at Rp551bn, +29yoy/+12qoq. Strong net income growth was attributed to robust net interest income of +16yoy, driven by loan growth of +18yoy. NIM declined to 4.4 in 1H16 vs 4.6 in 1H15. We estimate BBTN s asset yield declined by -59bps, outweighing decline in CoF of -28bps over the past year. BBTN has booked higher than anticipated cost of funds in 1H16 due to delay in disbursement of government's housing financing liquidity facility (FLPP) funds, forcing BBTN to use its own funding. As per Jul16, BBTN has only received Rp2.8tn (of the total Rp12.5tn) of the government s 216 housing budget. Strong loan growth driven by housing related loans. BBTN booked loan growth of +18yoy/+4qoq, mainly driven by housing related loans at +2yoy (91 of total loans) while consumer and commercial loans grew by +3yoy (9 of total loans). Of housing related loans, subsidized mortgages grew by +31yoy (33 of total loans), followed by construction loans by +21yoy (13 of total loans), and non-subsidized mortgages by +15yoy (38 of total loans). BBTN is confident that they will continue to receive FLPP funds next year as there is still a backlog of 1.3mn houses in Indonesia. Deposit growth +17yoy/+3qoq, driven by demand deposits at +22yoy, followed by time deposits at +21yoy, and saving deposits at +5yoy. Of demand deposits, ~Rp18tn (55 of total demand deposits) come from the FLPP scheme, in which the government earns.3 interest pa. CASA stood at 45 in Jun16 vs. 47 in Jun15 while LDR stood at 111 in Jun16 vs. 11 in Jun15. NPL declined to 3.4 in Jun16 from 3.6 in Mar16 while SML loans declined to 12.5 in Jun16 (from 13.8 in Mar16) and restructured loans increased to 3.7 in Jun16 (from 3.6 in Mar16). Improvement in asset quality was mainly driven by subsidized mortgages (NPL to 2.15 in Jun16 from 2.43 in Mar16), construction loans (NPL to 3.94 in Jun16 from 4.18 in Mar16), and commercial loans (NPL to in Jun16 from in Mar16). BBTN wrote of ~Rp293bn in 1H16. Meanwhile, coverage ratio stood at 41 in Jun16, flat vs. Mar16. CAR increased to 22.1 in Jun16 vs 16.5 in Mar16. Improvement in 2Q16 s CAR was attributed to asset revaluation totaling to Rp2.97tn, increasing tier I capital, and conversion of borrowings (totaling to Rp3tn) into subordinate debt, increasing BBTN s tier II capital. Maintain BUY with TP of Rp2,15. The stock is currently trading at 1.3x FY16 PBV. Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 5

2 BBTN - At a Glance FIGURE 1. LOAN, DEPOSIT GROWTH AND LDR Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 ( YoY) LDR Total Loan Growth (YoY) [RHS] Total Deposit Growth (YoY) [RHS] FIGURE 2. NET INTEREST MARGIN Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 NIM Interest Yield Cost of Funds FIGURE 3. LOAN BREAKDOWN FIGURE 4. DEPOSIT BREAKDOWN Q8 2Q9 4Q9 2Q1 4Q1 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 Subsidized mortgages Non-subsidized mortgages Other housing Construction loans Consumer loan Commercial loans Q8 2Q9 4Q9 2Q1 4Q1 2Q11 4Q11 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 Current Accounts Savings Time Deposits 2Q16 FIGURE 5. NPL & COVERAGE RATIO FIGURE 6. CAR & EQUITY Rp Bn 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 1Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 Loan Loss Coverage NPL [RHS] Capital Base Total CAR [RHS] Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 5

3 FIGURE 7. BBTN 1H16 AND 2Q16 RESULTS Income Statement (Rp bn) 6M15 6M16 YoY 2Q15 2Q16 YoY QoQ of Net interest income 3,187 3, ,632 1,787 1, , Non interest income , Fees and Commissions Forex Income () 1 (446) () 1 (382) (1) (1) (147) Others Operating income 3,713 4, ,915 2,7 2, , , Provisioning expense (269) (37) 14 (8) (137) (17) (752) 41 Operating expense (2,293) (2,588) 13 (1,241) (1,244) (1,344) 8 8 (5,297) 49 Personnel Expenses (86) (89) 1 (436) (445) (445) 2 () (1,666) 53 Other Expenses (1,487) (1,698) 14 (85) (799) (9) (3,631) 47 Operating profit 1,151 1, , ,63 45 PPOP 1,42 1, , Pre-tax profit 1,163 1, , ,64 45 Net profit 831 1, , , FY16 Cons of Cons Balance Sheet (Rp bn) Jun-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Gross loan 126, , , Demand deposit 26,746 31,874 32, Saving deposit 26,621 28,36 27,986 5 (1) Time deposit 61,352 7,985 73, Total deposit 114, , , YoY QoQ CASA to deposits Ratio 6M15 6M16 2Q15 2Q16 CAR Tier 1 CAR LDR NIM ROE NPL, cat Loan loss coverage Cost to Income Restructured Loan Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 5

4 BTN Profit & Loss YE Dec (Rp Bn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Interest Income 13,374 15,567 17,41 19,883 22,633 Interest Expense (7,893) (8,7) (9,544) (1,576) (11,755) Net Interest Inc. 5,482 6,867 7,867 9,37 1,878 Other Oper. Inc ,124 1,279 1,474 1,699 Operating Exp. (4,51) (4,562) (5,297) (6,225) (7,188) Personnel Exp.. (1,26) (1,459) (1,666) (1,875) (2,67) G & A (2,79) (3,13) (3,631) (4,351) (5,121) Others Pre-Prov. Profit 2,349 3,428 3,848 4,556 5,389 Provision Exp. (772) (894) (752) (834) (775) Operating Inc. 1,577 2,534 3,96 3,722 4,613 Pre-tax Income 1,579 2,542 3,17 3,736 4,631 Tax Expenses (434) (691) (668) (785) (973) Minority Int. Net Profit 1,146 1,851 2,439 2,951 3,659 Profit & Loss YE Dec (Rp Bn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Assets Cash 92 1,181 1,397 1,66 1,954 Due to BI 9,372 1,986 12, 14,5 17, Interbank Placement 1, Securities-Net 15,171 17,519 21,329 25,996 31,428 Gross Loan 115, , , , ,683 Loan Loss Prov. (1,577) (2,51) (2,323) (2,656) (2,931) Fixed Assets 1,488 1,553 1,68 1,817 1,966 Other Assets 2,191 3,12 3,222 3,181 2,38 Total Assets 144, ,88 22,34 238, ,365 Liabilities & Equity Liabilities Demand Deposits 23,231 3,882 38,787 49,669 62,695 Saving Deposits 25,547 29,872 34,112 41,423 49,819 Time Deposits 57,71 66,992 78,173 88,382 98,762 Total Third Party Funds 16, , ,72 179, ,276 Deposits From Oth. Banks Securities Issued 12,338 13,72 14,412 15,889 17,517 Borrowings 8,184 1,98 14,493 18,334 22,184 Subordinated Loan Other Liabilities 5,369 6,15 6,399 6,657 6,926 Total Liabilities 132,37 157, ,376 22, ,94 Minority Interest Shareholder's Equity 12,26 13,86 15,929 18,392 21,461 Total Liab. and Equity 144, ,88 22,34 238, ,365 Balance Sheet YE Dec (Rp Bn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Growth ( YoY) Assets Loans Earnings Assets Non-Performing Loans Deposits Shareholders' Equity Net interest income (2.8) Non-interest income Operating expenses Pre-provision profit (8.8) Net profit (26.7) Common Ratios NIM LDR NPL Coverage ratio ROAE ROAA Total CAR Tier 1 CAR Other Ratios Yield on earning assets Avg. cost of funds Net Interest Spread CASA deposits Cost to income Equity to assets Dividend payout Effective tax rate Key Ratios YE Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EPS BVPS 1,155 1,31 1,54 1,737 2,27 DPS Valuations P/BV (x) P/E (x) P/PPOP (x) Dividend yield Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 4 of 5

5 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 1219, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Sales) RESEARCH John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal, Metal, Automotive ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Bob Setiadi Construction, Toll Road bob.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id Francis Lim Health Care, Hospital francis.lim@mandirisek.co.id Yudha Gautama Mining, Plantation yudha.gautama@mandirisek.co.id Kevin Halim Property, Industrial, Media kevin.halim@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putera Rinaldy Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id Priscilla Thany Research Assistant priscilla.thany@mandirisek.co.id Ferdy Wan Research Assistant ferdy.wan@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Institutional Sales aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales feliciana.ramonda@mandirisek.co.id Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Institutional Sales karmia.tandjung@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Vera Ongyono Institutional Sales vera.ongyono@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Michael Taarea Equity Dealing michael.taarea@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities andreas@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Plaza Mandiri boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id A. A. Damargumilang Pondok Indah Office Tower damar.gumilang@mandirisek.co.id Herianto Pondok Indah Prioritas herianto@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Mangga Dua hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas'ari Bandung indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yogiswara P. Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id Widodo Solo widodo@mandirisek.co.id Linawati Surabaya Linawati@mandirisek.co.id Bambang Suwanto Malang bambang.suwanto@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan ruwie@mandirisek.co.id Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (1 or higher), Neutral (-1 to1) and Sell (-1 or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number or fax ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.