FOCUS Media Nusantara Citra Company Update 04 May 2015

Transcription

1 FOCUS XXX Company Update XX XXXXX 213 FOCUS Media Nusantara Citra MandiriSekuritas Analyst Rizky Hidayat Sector :Media NEUTRAL Current Price Rp2,25 Price Target Rp3, (+36.1%) 52-wk range Rp3,23 - Rp2,18 Stock Data Bloomberg Code MNCN IJ Mkt.Cap (Rpbn/US$ mn) 31,89 / 2,399 Issued Shares (mn) 14,99 Avg. Daily T/O (Rpbn/US$ mn) 36.8/2.8 Major shareholder PT Global Mediacom Tbk 68.8% Vanguard Group Inc. 1. Others 3.3% EPS consensus Mansek Cons Diff 215F (4.1) 216F F Share price performance 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) (22.9) (21.3) (18.8) Relative to JCI (%) (19.1) (21.2) (23.9) Crippled by Forex MNCN reported a weak 3M15 result mostly due to forex loss of Rp143bn from its USD25mn loan. Revenue is in-line with our expectations. Maintain Neutral. Weak 3M15 result.mncn posted a weak 3M15 NPAT of Rp285bn which is 14% to our estimate and consensus. The NPAT fell by 27% yoy or 24% qoq mainly due to forex loss. On the operating level the result is slightly below estimates, which we believe, is due to the higher than expected program cost and opex. Revenue is 21% to our expectation, in-line. In-line revenue. MNCN s revenue grew by 1% yoy, but fell by 7% qoq. The flat yoy growth is mostly due to the weak ad market in 1Q15. However, despite the weak ad market, TV ad and content revenue still showed a positive growth of 2% yoy or 1% qoq. We view that MNCN s improving audience shares from both RCTI and MNCTV in 4Q14 translated well to support the company s revenue in 1Q15. We suspect the qoq revenue decline is mostly due to the company s talent agency business. Seasonality and forex affects EBITDA margin. On a yoy basis, MNCN s EBITDA margin remained flat at 38%. However, on a qoq basis the EBITDA margin fell from 46% in 4Q14 to 38% in 1Q15 due to seasonality factor and weaker ad revenue in 1Q15. We suspect that foreign contents, which are mostly aired on Global TV, cost more in 1Q15 as the IDR depreciated. Foreign contents make up 17% of MNCN s gross TV program inventory. Forex loss hit the bottom line. MNCN s 3M15 NPAT was mostly hit by forex loss and interest expense as the IDR depreciated. Interest expense went up by 46% as the company drew down a syndicated loan of USD25mn in 3Q14. The depreciating IDR also caused MNCN to incur a Rp143bn forex loss as the USD loan is not hedged. As of 3M15, MNCN s net gearing stands at 18% vs. -4% in 3M14. Maintain Neutral.We slightly adjust down our FY15F NPAT by 6% to reflect the forex loss this year. We believe that revenue should catch up in 2Q15 in anticipation of the school holiday and fasting season. Noises from the CTPI litigation may still haunt MNCN s share price going ahead. Berkah is now filing an appeal to the Supreme Court after the Arbitrage Board s decision was revoked by the District Court. We maintain our Neutral call on MNCN. The counter is currently trading at 15.8x FY15F PE. FINANCIAL SUMMARY EBITDA 2,721 2,779 3,199 3,827 4,486 Net Profit 1,691 1,762 1,97 2,567 3,8 Fully-diluted EPS (Rp) Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) P/E Ratio (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B Ratio (x) Dividend Yield (%) ROAE (%) Source: Company ( ), Mandiri Sekuritas ( ) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 5

2 MNCN - At a Glance FIGURE 1. SALES BREAKDOWN, 215F FIGURE 2. TV AD SALES BREAKDOWN BY NETWORK, 215F Sindo TV 2% MNC Channels 3% Global TV 16% MNC TV 21% RCTI 58% Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates FIGURE 3. ALL-TIME AUDIENCE SHARES (%) 25. FIGURE 4. MONTHLY ALL-TIME AUDIENCE SHARES RANKING Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan RCTI TPI/MNCTV GTV RCTI MNC TV Global TV Source: Nielsen Source: Nielsen FIGURE 5. EPS GROWTH TREND FIGURE 6. LEVERAGE TREND % % % 12% 2% 4% 211A 212A 213A 214A 215F 216F 217F Fully Diluted EPS (LHS) Fully Diluted EPS Growth (RHS) % 2 15% 1 5% -5% 66 22% 56 16% % % 211A 212A 213A 214A 215F 216F 217F -1% Net Gearing (LHS) Interest Coverage (RHS) Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 5

3 FIGURE 7. MNCN S 3M15 RESULTS MNCN 3M15 results Rpbn 3M15 3M14 %yoy 1Q15 4Q14 %qoq 1Q14 %yoy % of ours % of cons. Revenue 1,514 1, ,514 1, , Gross profit Operating profit Pretax profit Net profit Gross margin (%) Operating margin (%) Pretax margin (%) Net margin (%) Source: Company, Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates FIGURE 8. QUATERLY TV AD AND CONTENT REVENUE FIGURE 9. QUARTERLY PROGRAM COST Rp bn 3, 12 2, ,8. 25% 2,5 8 1,6. 1,4. 1,2. 1, % 1 5% 2, 1,5 1, % Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15-15% - 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15-1 TV Revenue % QoQ Program Cost % QoQ Source: Company Source: Company Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 5

4 Media Nusantara Citra Profit & Loss Revenue 6,522 6,666 7,28 8,38 9,695 Gross Profit 3,672 3,853 4,23 5,21 6,192 Oper. Profit 2,56 2,64 2,992 3,69 4,253 EBITDA 2,721 2,779 3,199 3,827 4,486 Net Interest (1) 28 (12) Interest Expense (41) (58) (166) (167) (13) Interest Income Forex Losses/Gains (134) (77) (17) (14) Net Other (23) (11) (5) (5) (5) Pre-Tax Profit 2,394 2,544 2,86 3,655 4,284 Income Tax (584) (66) (71) (914) (1,71) Others Minority Interests (119) (121) (134) (175) (25) Net Profit 1,691 1,762 1,97 2,567 3,8 Cash Flow Operating Profit 2,56 2,64 2,992 3,69 4,253 Net Interest (1) 28 (12) Depr&Amort Other expenses/income (23) (11) (5) (5) (5) Other Gain / Loss (119) (121) (134) (175) (25) Tax (584) (66) (71) (914) (1,71) Chg in Working Capital 357 (1,965) (257) (718) (77) Other Oper. Cash Flow Oper. Cash Flow 2, ,9 2,81 2,472 Capital Expenditure (718) (1,292) (1,663) (335) (455) FCF (OPCF after Capex) 1,625 (1,242) 428 1,746 2,17 Other Investing CF (53) (1,19) 696 (134) (157) CF From Investing (77) (2,311) (966) (469) (612) Net Chg in Debts (148) 3, (3,336) Equity Funds Raised (153) 368 (22) Dividend (1,116) (497) (793) (887) (1,155) Other Financing CF CF From Financing (1,393) 2,896 (168) (684) (4,371) Non-Recur. Inc (Exp) (134) (77) (17) (14) Extraord. Inc(Exp) Net Change in Cash (2,512) Cash at beginning ,132 1,918 2,831 Cash at End 575 1,132 1,918 2, Valuation YE Dec 213A 214A 215F 216F 217F PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) P/CF (x) Dividend Yield (%) Balance Sheet Cash & ST Investment 575 1,132 1,918 2, Acct. Receivable 2,712 2,994 2,831 3,231 3,51 Inventory 1,333 1,635 1,835 1,799 1,795 Others 2,192 2,99 3,174 3,6 4,163 Current Assets 6,812 8,67 9,758 11,461 9,78 Investments Fixed Assets 1,543 2,659 4,115 4,232 4,453 Others 4,42 6,732 7,698 8,168 8,78 Total Assets 9,615 13,69 15,456 17,411 16,18 Curr. Liabilities 1, ,43 Acct. Payable ST Borrowings Others Long-Term Liabilities Long-Term Payable 96 3,135 3,625 3,65 3 Others Total Liabilities 1,872 4,216 4,732 4,843 1,567 Shareholder s Equity 7,744 9,393 1,724 12,567 14,54 Key Ratios YE Dec 213A 214A 215F 216F 217F Growth (% YoY) Sales EBIT EBITDA Net Profit Profitability (%) Gross Profit Margin Oper. Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Debt / Equity (%) (.7) (.1) EBITDA/Gross Int. (x) Per Share Data(Rp) EPS CFPS BVPS DPS Source: Company, MandiriSekuritas estimates Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 4 of 5

5 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 1219, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Research), (Equity Sales) RESEARCH John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CFP, CPA Plantation, Heavy eq., Energy hariyanto.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id Herman Koeswanto, CFA Consumer, Poultry herman.koeswanto@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal & Metal Mining ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Matthew Wibowo Retail matthew.wibowo@mandirisek.co.id RizkyHidayat Property, Media rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id Vanessa Ariati Tanuwijaya Banking, Health Care vanessa.tanuwijaya@mandirisek.co.id Aldian Taloputra Economist aldian.taloputra@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putra Rinaldy Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Shipping aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id Yudha Gautama Research Assistant yudha.gautama@mandirisek.co.id Kelvin Wijaya Research Assistant kelvin.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Institutional Sales jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Institutional Sales janefer.soelaiman@mandirisek.co.id Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Institutional Sales karmia.tandjung@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id OosRosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Vera Ongyono Institutional Sales vera.ongyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohan Setio, CFA Institutional Sales yohan.setio@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Boy Triyono Plaza Mandiri boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Pondok Indah boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id YohanesTriyanto KelapaGading yohanes.triyanto@mandirisek.co.id HendraRiady ManggaDua hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id IndraMas'ari Bandung indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yogiswara P. Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id Widodo Solo widodo@mandirisek.co.id Linawati Surabaya Linawati@mandirisek.co.id Bambang Suwanto Malang bambang.suwanto@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan Tiara ruwie@mandirisek.co.id AidilIdham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (1 or higher), Neutral (-1 to1) and Sell (-1 or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. MandiriSekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX)and MandiriSekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. MandiriSekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. MandiriSekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. MandiriSekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. MandiriSekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number or fax ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.