FOCUS Ciputra Development Company Update 23 January 2015

Transcription

1 FOCUS XXX Company Update XX XXXXX 213 FOCUS Ciputra Development Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst Liliana S Bambang liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Rizky Hidayat rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id Sector : Property NEUTRAL Current Price Rp1,475 Price Target Rp1,35 (-8.5%) Prev. PT:Rp88 52-wk range Rp1,54 - Rp8 Stock Data Bloomberg Code CTRA IJ Mkt.Cap (Rp bn/us$ mn) 22,37 / 1,795 Issued Shares (mn) 15,166 Avg. Daily T/O (Rp bn/us$ mn) 2.2/1.6 Major shareholder Pt Sang Pelopor 3.6% Credit Suisse, Singapore 8.1% Public 61.3% EPS consensus Mansek Cons Diff 214F (2.7) 215F (.4) 216F (4.9) Share price performance 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) Relative to JCI (%) Moving target? CTRA accomplished marketing sales of Rp8.6tn for FY14F, a slight decline compared to last year s target of Rpp8.9tn. Further details yet to be released for FY15F marketing sales, but the company is looking for 1-15% marketing sales growth. We maintain our Neutral recommendation for CTRA. Looking for 1-15% growth. Last year, CTRA accomplished marketing sales of Rp8.6tn, after revision. In FY14, around 8% of CTRA s marketing sales are contributed from Java projects versus 6% in FY13. Weakness of sales on outside of Java, in our view is due to commodities, slightly weak realization of budget spending, and a more aggressive tax investigation on property purchase. Official target is yet to be released, but CTRA is aiming for 1-15% marketing sales growth for FY15F. Can they meet this year s target? CTRA plans to release its FY15F marketing sales target in early February. We would look for breakdown between Java and outside of Java. We would start worrying on this year s target if there is a chunk of marketing sales which is focused on outside of Java Island. We are more confident on property demand in Java Island compared to outside of Java. We are also worried on CTRP s marketing sales target. Despite the strong accomplishment of Ciputra Puri (booking Rp828bn, triple the initial target of Rp276bn), we are not too confident on property demand for Ciputra World Jakarta. CTRP plans to issue Sing dollar bond. To fund its project capex for next year (which is estimated to be around Rp3tn), CTRP plans to issue around 2mn of Sing dollar bond. Based on recent bond issuance, CTRP could get a rate between %. Our number currently has not priced in the bond issuance. Maintain our Neutral recommendation. At this juncture, we maintain our Neutral recommendation with new PT of Rp1,35 (based on 4% discount to NAV). We attached lower discount to NAV compared to peers of 5%, as we favor its JV & JO structure, which allows the company to expand without incurring much landbanking capex. Our PT implies FY16F P/E of 14.5x. FINANCIAL SUMMARY EBITDA 955 1,553 1,912 2,297 2,483 Net Profit ,155 1,436 1,557 Fully-diluted EPS (Rp) Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) P/E Ratio (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B Ratio (x) Dividend Yield (%) ROAE (%) Source: Company ( ), Mandiri Sekuritas ( ) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 6

2 FIGURE 1. SALES BREAKDOWN FY15F Shopping Mall 7% Hotel 2% Other Recurring 7% CTRA - At a Glance FIGURE 2. GROSS PROFIT BREAKDOWN FY15F Shopping Mall 1% Other Recurring Hotel 8% 3% Apartment 13% Landed 7% Apartment 14% Landed 65% FIGURE 3. MARKETING SALES GROWTH FORECAST Rp bn 12, FIGURE 4. MARKETING SALES BREAKDOWN, 215F 1, 8, 7,239 8,941 8,555 9,62 CTRP (CWJ) 17% 6, 4, 2, 3,564 CTRS 21% CTRA 62% - 211A 212A 213A 214A 215F FIGURE 5. EPS GROWTH TREND FIGURE 6. LEVERAGE TREND (Rp) (%) (2) (%) 1 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (35) (x) Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-2 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-2 EPS EPS Growth [RHS] Net Debt/Equity (NDE) Interest Cover [RHS] Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 6

3 FIGURE 7. CTRA NAV BREAKDOWN Ciputra Surya Sub Total NAV 16,41 Effectiv e ow nership of Ciputra Dev elopment 62.7% Net Asset Value (Ciputra Dev elopment) 1,284 Citra Garden City Jakarta Commercial Size (ha) Dev eloped Land Equiv alent (ha) Av erage Selling Price (Rp/sqm) 12,, 2,, Indicativ e Value (Rp B) 5,84 2,899 7,983 Citra Raya Tangerang Commercial - Size (ha) Dev eloped Land Equiv alent (ha) Av erage Selling Price (Rp/sqm) 1,912,5 4,, Indicativ e Value (Rp B) 4,376 3,541 7,917 Citra Indah Jonggol Commercial - Size (ha) Dev eloped Land Equiv alent (ha) Av erage Selling Price (Rp/sqm) 1,12, 1,5, Indicativ e Value (Rp B) Price Indicative % % CTRA NAV of Ciputra Property Size (ha) (Rp/Sqm) % Sold value (Rp B) ownership ownership Ciputra World Jakarta Lot ,, 75% % 51.89% 282 Ciputra World Jakarta Lot ,, % 51.89% 326 Ciputra World Jakarta Lot ,, - 1, % 51.89% 699 Ex tension Ciputra World ,, % 51.89% 181 Rosew ood tanah Bali 36. 4,, 1,44 6.% 51.89% 448 Rosew ood tanah Bali 44. 4,, 1,76 6.% 51.89% 548 Puri ,, 1,8 55.% 51.89% 38 Sub Total CTRP 99 2,793 Cash & ST Inv estment 3,18 Debt (2,5) Adv ance from customers (4,497) Net Asset Value Indicative value (Rp B) % ownership Operating Assets 3, % 2,28 JV assets 5,833 Total NAV 33,881 NAV per share 2,234 Discount 4% PT 1,34 Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 6

4 FIGURE 8. CTRS NAV BREAKDOWN Gross landbank (ha) Net landbank (ha) ASP (Rp mn/sqm) Net ASP (Rp mn/sqm) NAV (Rp bn) Citraland Surabaya ,416 Commercial ,63 Citraland Utara ,64 Commercial ,548 Citraharmoni Sidoarjo Commercial Citragarden Sidoarjo Commercial JO projects value 942 Total NAV of property development 15,92 Total NAV of investment properties 499 NAV 16,41 Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 4 of 6

5 Ciputra Development Profit & Loss Revenue 3,323 5,77 7,26 8,94 8,529 Gross Profit 1,667 2,546 3,253 3,745 3,997 Oper. Profit 955 1,553 1,912 2,297 2,483 EBITDA 955 1,553 1,912 2,297 2,483 Net Interest (58) (57) (57) Interest Expense (55) (117) (131) (126) (126) Interest Income Forex Losses/Gains 8 48 Net Other Pre-Tax Profit 1,3 1,79 1,893 2,279 2,471 Income Tax (18) (296) (41) (47) (496) Others Minority Interests (26) (437) (328) (374) (418) Net Profit ,155 1,436 1,557 Cash Flow Operating Profit 955 1,553 1,912 2,297 2,483 Net Interest (58) (57) (57) Depr & Amort Other expenses/income Other Gain / Loss (225) Tax (18) (296) (41) (47) (496) Chg in Working Capital 1,11 2,9 (2,75) Other Oper. Cash Flow (213) (1,56) 2, Oper. Cash Flow 1,56 3, ,437 2,225 Capital Expenditure (1,826) (3,657) (2,324) (1,292) (913) FCF (OPCF after Capex) (321) (448) (1,358) 1,146 1,313 Other Investing CF CF From Investing (1,63) (3,561) (2,324) (1,292) (913) Net Chg in Debts 669 1, Equity Funds Raised (32) (2) Dividend (171) (195) (195) (231) (287) Other Financing CF CF From Financing 466 1,6 77 (231) (287) Non-Recur. Inc (Exp) 8 48 Extraord. Inc(Exp) Net Change in Cash (1,282) 915 1,25 Cash at beginning 2,371 2,747 3,475 2,193 3,18 Cash at End 2,747 3,52 2,193 3,18 4,133 Valuation YE Dec 212A 213A 214F 215F 216F Balance Sheet Cash & ST Investment 2,747 3,475 2,193 3,18 4,133 Acct. Receivable Inventory 3,31 4,892 8,367 9,471 9,933 Others Current Assets 7,24 9,13 11,681 13,862 15,423 Investments Fixed Assets 4,42 5,331 3,942 3,874 4,53 Others 3,4 5,654 3,949 4,245 4,54 Total Assets 15,24 2,115 19,572 21,981 24,16 Curr. Liabilities 238 1, Acct. Payable 199 1, ST Borrowings Others Long-Term Liabilities Long-Term Payable 1,471 2,728 3, 3, 3, Others 4,834 6,421 5,83 5,847 6,168 Total Liabilities 6,543 1,349 8,52 9,35 9,697 Shareholder s Equity 8,481 9,766 11,53 12,631 14,319 Key Ratios YE Dec 212A 213A 214F 215F 216F Growth (% YoY) Sales EBIT EBITDA Net Profit Profitability (%) Gross Profit Margin Oper. Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Debt / Equity (%) (15.) (7.6) 7.3 (.9) (7.9) EBITDA/Gross Int. (x) Per Share Data (Rp) EPS CFPS BVPS DPS PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) P/CF (x) Dividend Yield (%) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 5 of 6

6 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 1219, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Research), (Equity Sales) RESEARCH John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy john.rachmat@mandirisek.co.id Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Handoko Wijoyo Construction, Toll Road handoko.wijoyo@mandirisek.co.id Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CFP, CPA Plantation, Heavy eq., Energy hariyanto.wijaya@mandirisek.co.id Herman Koeswanto, CFA Consumer, Poultry herman.koeswanto@mandirisek.co.id Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material liliana.bambang@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal & Metal Mining ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Matthew Wibowo Retail matthew.wibowo@mandirisek.co.id Rizky Hidayat Property, Media rizky.hidayat@mandirisek.co.id Vanessa Ariati Tanuwijaya Banking, Health Care vanessa.tanuwijaya@mandirisek.co.id Aldian Taloputra Economist aldian.taloputra@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putra Rinaldy Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Aditya Sastrawinata Research Assistant aditya.sastrawinata@mandirisek.co.id Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant wisnu.trihatmojo@mandirisek.co.id Yudha Gautama Research Assistant yudha.gautama@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales cindy.amelia@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Institutional Sales jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Institutional Sales janefer.soelaiman@mandirisek.co.id Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Institutional Sales karmia.tandjung@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales oos.rosadi@mandirisek.co.id Vera Ongyono Institutional Sales vera.ongyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohan Setio, CFA Institutional Sales yohan.setio@mandirisek.co.id Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales zahra.niode@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Ridwan Pranata Head Retail Equities ridwan.pranata@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Jakarta Branch boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Yohanes Triyanto Kelapa Gading Branch yohanes.triyanto@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Mangga Dua Branch hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Umar Abdullah Pondok Indah Branch umar.abdullah@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas ari Bandung Branch indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak Branch yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan Branch ruwie@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (1% or higher), Neutral (-1% to1%) and Sell (-1% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number or fax ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.