FOCUS Semen Indonesia Company Update 28 May 2018

Transcription

1 FOCUS XXX Company Update XX XXXXX 2013 FOCUS Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst Priscilla Thany Tjandra Lienandjaja Sector : Building Materials NEUTRAL Current Price Target Price 52-wk range Stock Data Rp8,750 Rp8,500 (-2.9%) Prev. TP:Rp10,300 Rp11,775 - Rp8,250 Bloomberg Code SMGR IJ Mkt.Cap (Rp bn/us$ mn) 51,901 / 3,704 Issued Shares (mn) 5,932 Avg. Daily T/O (Rp bn/us$ mn) 51.5/3.7 Major shareholder Government of the Republic of Indonesia 51.0% Public 49.0% EPS consensus Mansek Cons Diff 2018F (21.3) 2019F (20.0) 2020F (21.8) Share price performance 3m 6m 12m Absolute (%) (21.3) (12.5) (5.4) Relative to JCI (%) (13.3) (12.5) (11.6) Price Matters Pricing has been a big issue over the past couple of quarters, especially as energy prices have increased significantly. SMGR is the only player who has aggressively increased the price of bagged cement during Dec-17 to Apr-18 at the expense of market share. Maintain Neutral with revised TP Rp 8,500 from Rp10,300. Follow the leader. SMGR continues to hold strong to its initial strategy of implementing price discipline across the sector, in particular bag segment. Since SMGR is the market leader with a market share of 39.4% as of 4M18, the company views that they have the ability to influence smaller players to gradually increase ASP, especially as energy prices reached the highest point over the past 3-4 years. The big question is: Are other players willing to adopt SMGR s strategy or will they continue to prioritize market share over earnings? Of the three largest industry players, INTP has openly stated that they will attempt to aggressively increase cement prices post the Eid al-fitr holidays. However, SMCB adopts an opposite view expecting another round of price cuts over the next few quarters. We see risks that SMGR and INTP s price hikes may come at the expense of market share, especially in areas where SCMB (capacity:15.5mn tons) has strong presence: Central Java, Jakarta, and Sumatra. Price vs Market Share. Over the past four months we observed SMGR s price hikes, came at the expense of losing market share to INTP, SMCB, and Anhui Conch. From Dec-17 to Apr-18, SMGR s market share declined by -134bps to 39.4%. However, now that INTP will be moving in the same direction impact on market share from price hikes may not be as severe as what we previously observed. Views on price hikes. We view conducting price hikes may not be an ideal strategy if the two biggest players (INTP and SMGR) want to turn the industry structure into an oligopoly market. In contrast, we believe the current price and cost pressure would actually help accelerate industry consolidation as smaller players who cannot compete are forced to sell their stake at a discount. Maintain Neutral with revised TP of Rp8,500 from Rp10,300. We cut 2018F earnings by -10.2% to take into account higher energy costs and upgrade 2019 s earnings by +3.4% as we expect slower increase in operating expenses from cost savings initiatives. Our TP is based on 28.8x 2018F earnings. FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F EBITDA 6,611 5,078 4,878 5,380 5,948 Net Profit 4,522 2,014 1,741 2,037 2,388 Fully-diluted EPS Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) 0.0 (55.5) (13.6) P/E Ratio (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B Ratio (x) Dividend Yield (%) ROAE (%) Source: Company ( ), Mandiri Sekuritas ( ) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 8

2 SMGR - At a Glance FIGURE 1. 4M18 SALES BREAKDOWN FIGURE 2. 12M17 COST BREAKDOWN Sumatera, 1,901 Others 28% Energy 35% Java, 4,233 Eastern Indo, 228 Sulawesi, 1,041 Nusa Tenggara & Bali, 345 Kalimantan, 560 Labor 8% Depreciation 9% Raw Material 9% Distribution 11% Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas FIGURE 3. QUARTERLY ASP FIGURE 4. CONSENSUS P/E VALUATION CHART (Rp'000) 1, Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 ASP (Rp'000) (LHS) 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 QoQ% (RHS) 1Q18 (%QoQ) 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% PE (x) Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct StDev +1 StDev Mean -1 StDev -2 StDev Apr-18 Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas FIGURE 5. EPS GROWTH TREND FIGURE 6. LEVERAGE TREND (Rp) 1, (%) (10) (20) (30) (40) (50) (60) (%) (5) (10) (15) (x) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Dec-26 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Dec-26 EPS EPS Growth [RHS] Net Debt/Equity (NDE) Interest Cover [RHS] Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 8

3 Price Matters Pricing has been a big issue over the past couple of quarters, especially as energy prices have increased significantly. SMGR is the only cement player who aggressively increased the price of bagged cement during Dec-17 to Apr-18 at the expense of market share. However, the dynamics may change as INTP has indicated that they too will raise prices post the Eid al-fitr holidays. Maintain Neutral with revised TP Rp 8,500 from Rp10,300. Reviewing plans to raise prices further. After consistently increasing ex-factory cement prices over the past five months (from Dec-17 to Apr-18), SMGR s management plans to review their strategy to decide whether further price increases will be necessary. SMGR has aggressively increased the price of bagged cement in the following areas: Sumatra, East Java, Central Java, Sulawesi, and Kalimantan. Meanwhile, the company faced difficulty increasing prices in Greater Jakarta and West Java. In Greater Jakarta, SMGR faces tough competition due to the wide variety of cement brands available, causing customers within the area to become very price sensitive. In contrast, West Java is INTP s home market making it difficult for SMGR to increase prices without losing market share to INTP. Follow the leader. SMGR continues to hold strong to its initial strategy of implementing price discipline across the sector, in particular bag segment. Since SMGR is the market leader with a market share of 39.4% as of 4M18, the company believes that they can influence smaller players to gradually increase ASP, especially as energy prices (oil and coal) has reached the highest point over the past 3-4 years. Given that a sizeable portion of cement producers agree to increase ASP over the next couple of quarters, SMGR s management believes the entire industry will be able to enjoy earnings recovery and margin expansion. The big question then becomes: Are players willing to adopt SMGR s strategy or will they continue to prioritize market share over earnings? Of the three largest industry players (SMGR, INTP, and SMCB), INTP and SMGR agreed to increase cement prices while SMCB views that price cuts are inevitable. INTP s management openly stated (refer to: 1Q18 Earnings Call Takeaways) that they share the same view as SMGR and will attempt to aggressively increase cement prices post the Eid al-fitr holidays. However, SMCB (refer to: Holcim Public Expose Takeaways) adopts an opposite view they are expecting to do another round of price cuts over the next few quarters. Given that SMCB does not follow in SMGR s footsteps, INTP and SMGR may potentially face difficulty increasing prices in Java, in particular Central Java and Jakarta, and to a certain extent in Sumatra as SMCB has an established presence in these areas. We note that as of 4M18 SMCB s market share in Indonesia stood at 14.9%, Java at 17.1%, Central Java at 47.0%, Jakarta at 26.0%, and Sumatra at 20.7%. Hence, we see risks that SMGR and INTP s strategy may come at the expense of declining market share. Aside from SMCB, we believe the biggest threat is Anhui Conch. Conch s aggressiveness is well reflected by its market share which has almost doubled over the past year. To put things into perspective, 65.7% of the cement industry (consisting of SMGR and INTP) plans to raise prices, 14.9% of the industry (SMCB) expects more price cuts, while the remaining 19.4% of industry players have not officially stated which strategy they will adopt. Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 3 of 8

4 FIGURE 7. INDUSTRY SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND UTILIZATION RATE Supply and Demand Forecast 2018F Indonesian Capacity (mn tons) Capacity 2018F ('000) 4M18 Cement Consumption ('000) Annualized Utilization Rate Semen Gresik Group 35,500 8, % Indocement 24,900 5, % Semen Baturaja 3, % Holcim Indonesia 15,500 3, % Semen Bosowa Maros 7, % Semen Kupang % Semen Merah Putih 6, % Semen Jui Shin 1, % Semen Panasia 1, % Siam Cement 1, % Anhui Conch 11, % Total Capacity 111,100 21, % Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates FIGURE 8. MARKET SHARE OF SMGR, INTP, SMCB, AND SMALLER PLAYERS 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jan-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Oct-08 May-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 Jun-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 May-16 Dec-16 Jul-17 Feb-18 Source: ASI, Mandiri Sekuritas INTP SMGR SMCB Non big-3 FIGURE 9. MARKET SHARE IN BREAKDOWN IN SUMATRA, JAVA, JAKARTA, AND WEST JAVA 100% 12% 7% 90% 18% 26% 80% 26% 15% 70% 36% 60% 50% 41% 26% 40% 17% 47% 30% 20% 21% 35% 42% 10% 20% 12% 0% Sumatra Java Jakarta West Java INTP SMCB SMGR Smaller Players Source: ASI, Mandiri Sekuritas Price vs Market Share. Over the past four months we observed SMGR s price hikes, especially in the bag segment, came at the expense of losing a sizeable portion of market share to INTP, SMCB, and Anhui Conch. From Dec-17 to Apr-18, SMGR s market share declined by -134bps to 39.4% in 4M18, of which the largest decline in market share was experienced by the bag segment at -162bps to 37.9% in 4M18 while the bulk segment only saw market share decline by -29bps to 43.5% in 4M18. This is in line with management s guidance whereby most of the ex-factory price hikes during Dec-17 to Apr-18 took place in the bag segment, while the bulk segment experienced minimal price increase. However, we view that there may be a change in industry dynamics now that two giants, SMGR and INTP, are moving in the same direction the impact on market share from price hikes should not be as severe as what both players previously experienced. Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 4 of 8

5 FIGURE 10. BAG MARKET SHARE OF SMGR, INTP, SMCB, AND SMALLER PLAYERS 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Source: ASI, Mandiri Sekuritas Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 INTP SMGR SMCB Non big-3 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 FIGURE 11. BULK SHARE IN BREAKDOWN IN SUMATRA, JAVA, JAKARTA, AND WEST JAVA 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Source: ASI, Mandiri Sekuritas Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 INTP SMGR SMCB Non big-3 Jan-18 Mar-18 According to our monthly survey conducted at the distributor level within Java, SMGR was the only player to increase the price of bagged cement aggressively during January to May. Assuming that distributors keep margins stable, the price increase of bagged cement at the distributor level should well reflect SMGR s price increase at the exfactory level. YTD, SMGR s distributors have increased the price of bag cement by 2-7% while INTP and Semen Merah Putih, distributors have kept prices stable. Meanwhile, we would like to highlight that Anhui Conch increased the price of bagged cement by +2.4%mom in May. This may signal that Anhui Conch is also supporting SMGR s strategy to implement industry price discipline. FIGURE 12. MONTHLY PRICING SURVEY AT DISTRIBUTOR LEVEL Greater Jakarta May-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 MoM YoY YTD Indocement 50kg 52,350 44,600 44,600 44,600 44,600 44,600 44, % -14.8% 0.0% 40kg 41,880 35,680 35,680 35,680 35,680 35,680 35, % -14.8% 0.0% 50kg 49,500 43,750 44,750 45,750 46,000 46,500 46, % -6.1% 6.3% 40kg 39,600 34,800 35,700 36,600 36,800 37,200 37, % -6.1% 6.9% Semen Merah Putih 50kg 47,111 44,444 44,444 44,444 44,444 44,444 44, % -5.7% 0.0% 40kg 37,689 35,911 35,911 35,911 35,911 35,911 35, % -4.7% 0.0% Anhui Conch 50kg 41,000 41,000 41,000 41,000 41,000 42, % 2.4% 40kg 32,800 32,800 32,800 32,800 32,800 33, % 2.4% Central Java May-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 MoM YoY YTD Indocement 40kg 38,900 36,150 36,150 36,150 36,250 36,250 36, % -6.8% 0.3% 40kg 40,000 39,500 39,750 40,250 40,250 40,250 40, % 0.6% 1.9% East Java May-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 MoM YoY YTD Indocement 40kg 39,517 37,689 37,689 37,689 37,689 37,366 37, % -5.4% -0.9% 40kg 44,000 41,000 43,500 43,750 43,000 42,250 42, % -4.0% 3.0% West Java May-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 MoM YoY YTD Indocement 50kg 53,050 50,200 50,200 50,200 50,200 49,350 49, % -7.0% -1.7% 40kg 42,240 40,160 40,160 40,160 40,160 39,450 39, % -6.6% -1.8% 50kg 49,000 45,250 46,250 48,000 47,500 47,000 46, % -4.6% 3.3% 40kg 39,200 36,200 37,000 38,400 38,000 37,400 37, % -4.6% 3.3% Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 5 of 8

6 Our views. We view that conducting price hikes may not be an ideal strategy if the two biggest players (INTP and SMGR) want to turn the industry structure into an oligopoly market. We believe the current price and cost pressure would help accelerate industry consolidation as smaller players who cannot compete are forced to sell their stake at a discount benefiting INTP and SMGR. However, this would come at the expense of industry wide margin compression and significant decline in earnings over an uncertain time period. Though increasing ASP as an attempt to pass on a portion energy costs is financially feasible to aid margin and earnings recovery, we believe this strategy, if adopted by the entire industry, will actually extend smaller players lifeline and eliminate the likelihood that smaller players will sell at a discount. Updates on merger and acquisition. SMGR s management indicates that industry consolidation may not happen this year as they have yet to find a target which matches their price range. SMGR is interested in acquiring players located in Central and West Java as the company does not have an integrated plant in these two locations. Guidance for SMGR has allocated capex of Rp2tn for 2018, of which the majority will be used for maintenance purposes and construction of a packing plant. However, the location of the packing plant has not been decided. Similar to the prior year, SMGR expects demand in 2018F to be supported by bulk sales driven by realization of infrastructure projects, while bag sales volume is expected to remain quite weak. SMGR targets sales volume to grow by 9-10% in 2018F vs. industry volume growth expected at 6%. Maintain Neutral with revised TP of Rp8,500 from Rp10,300. We cut 2018F earnings by -10.2% to take into account higher energy costs. Meanwhile, we revise up 2019 s earnings by +3.4% as we expect slower increase in operating expenses from cost savings initiatives. Our revised TP of Rp8,500 is based on 28.8x 2018F earnings. FIGURE 13. EARNINGS REVISION Old New Change (%) 2018E 2019E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2018E 2019E Revenue 28,276 30,057 28,461 30,500 32, % 1.5% Gross Profit 7,905 8,349 7,317 8,137 8, % -2.5% Operating Profit 2,726 2,768 2,867 3,255 3, % 17.6% Pretax Profit 2,536 2,576 2,354 2,754 3, % 6.9% Net Income 1,938 1,969 1,741 2,037 2, % 3.4% Gross Margin 28.0% 27.8% 25.7% 26.7% 27.5% -2.2% -1.1% Operating Margin 9.6% 9.2% 10.1% 10.7% 11.3% 0.4% 1.5% Net Margin 6.9% 6.6% 6.1% 6.7% 7.3% -0.7% 0.1% Source: Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 6 of 8

7 Profit & Loss YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue 26,134 27,814 28,461 30,500 32,746 Gross Profit 9,856 7,960 7,317 8,137 8,995 Oper. Profit 4,973 3,126 2,867 3,255 3,708 EBITDA 6,611 5,078 4,878 5,380 5,948 Net Interest (180) (588) (706) (694) (671) Interest Expense (363) (756) (882) (822) (766) Interest Income Forex Losses/Gains Net Other Pre-Tax Profit 5,085 2,747 2,354 2,754 3,230 Income Tax (550) (704) (588) (689) (807) Others Minority Interests (13) (29) (25) (29) (34) Net Profit 4,522 2,014 1,741 2,037 2,388 Cash Flow YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Operating Profit 4,973 3,126 2,867 3,255 3,708 Net Interest (180) (588) (706) (694) (671) Depr & Amort 1,637 1,953 2,011 2,125 2,239 Other expenses/income Other Gain / Loss Tax (550) (704) (588) (689) (807) Chg in Working Capital (317) (2,088) 378 (83) (104) Other Oper. Cash Flow Oper. Cash Flow 5,855 1,908 4,154 4,108 4,558 Capital Expenditure (7,316) (3,629) (2,000) (3,932) (3,932) FCF (OPCF after Capex) (1,461) (1,721) 2, Other Investing CF (571) CF From Investing (7,383) (3,300) (2,025) (3,961) (3,966) Net Chg in Debts 1,909 3,830 (620) (567) (549) Equity Funds Raised (97) (326) Dividend (1,809) (1,809) (806) (696) (815) Other Financing CF (63) (63) CF From Financing 399 2,196 (1,374) (1,326) (1,427) Non-Recur. Inc (Exp) Extraord. Inc(Exp) Net Change in Cash (1,130) (1,179) (835) Cash at beginning 3,964 2,834 3,638 4,393 3,213 Cash at End 2,834 3,638 4,393 3,213 2,378 Valuation YE Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) P/CF (x) Dividend Yield (%) Balance Sheet YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Cash & ST Investment 2,834 3,638 4,393 3,213 2,378 Acct. Receivable 4,018 4,995 5,111 5,478 5,881 Inventory 2,671 3,686 3,385 3,580 3,803 Others 836 1,474 1,474 1,474 1,474 Current Assets 10,360 13,793 14,363 13,746 13,536 Investments Fixed Assets 30,847 32,523 32,513 34,320 36,012 Others 47,354 50,448 52,448 56,380 60,312 Total Assets 44,227 48,964 49,523 50,712 52,195 Curr. Liabilities 8,152 8,804 8,916 9,291 9,745 Acct. Payable 4,078 4,927 5,247 5,550 5,894 ST Borrowings 1,811 1,921 1,839 1,736 1,668 Others 2,263 1,956 1,829 2,005 2,183 Long-Term Liabilities Long-Term Payable 4,450 8,099 7,611 7,085 6,540 Others 1,051 1,622 1,622 1,622 1,622 Total Liabilities 13,653 18,524 18,149 17,998 17,907 Shareholder s Equity 30,574 30,439 31,374 32,714 34,288 Key Ratios YE Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Growth (% YoY) Sales (3.0) EBIT (15.7) (37.1) (8.3) EBITDA (9.8) (23.2) (3.9) Net Profit 0.0 (55.5) (13.6) Profitability (%) Gross Profit Margin Oper. Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin ROAA ROAE Leverage Net Debt / Equity (%) EBITDA/Gross Int. (x) Per Share Data (Rp) EPS CFPS BVPS 4,895 4,875 5,032 5,258 5,524 DPS Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 7 of 8

8 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Plaza Mandiri 28 th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav , Jakarta 12190, Indonesia General: , Fax : (Equity Sales) RESEARCH Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research, Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Chemical ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id Kresna Hutabarat Telecom, Media, Property kresna.hutabarat@mandirisek.co.id Bob Setiadi Construction, Toll Road bob.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id Laura Taslim Retail laura.taslim@mandirisek.co.id Priscilla Thany Banking, Building Material priscilla.thany@mandirisek.co.id Lakshmi Rowter Healthcare, Consumer lakshmi.rowter@mandirisek.co.id Audrey Hanzdima Property, Research Assistant audrey.hanzdima@mandirisek.co.id Edbert Surya Research Assistant edbert.surya@mandirisek.co.id Silvony Gathrie Research Assistant Silvony.gathrie@mandirisek.co.id Riyanto Hartanto Research Assistant riyanto@mandirisek.co.id Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id Masyita Crystallin Economist masyita.crystallin@mandirisek.co.id Aziza Nabila Amani Research Assistant aziza.amani@mandirisek.co.id INSTITUTIONAL SALES Silva Halim Head Institutional Equities silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales feliciana.ramonda@mandirisek.co.id Kevin Halim Institutional Sales kevin.halim@mandirisek.co.id Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales santikara.salim@mandirisek.co.id Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi Institutional Sales sharon.tjahjadi@mandirisek.co.id Talitha Medha Anindya Institutional Sales talitha.anindya@mandirisek.co.id Kevin Giarto Institutional Sales kevin.giarto@mandirisek.co.id Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id Michael Taarea Equity Dealing michael.taarea@mandirisek.co.id RETAIL SALES Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities andreas@mandirisek.co.id Boy Triyono Plaza Mandiri boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady Menara Sudirman hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Hendra Riady (Pjs) Pondok Indah hendra.riady@mandirisek.co.id Linawati Surabaya Linawati@mandirisek.co.id Ruwie Medan ruwie@mandirisek.co.id Indra Mas'ari Bandung indra.mas ari@mandirisek.co.id Bambang Suwanto Malang bambang.suwanto@mandirisek.co.id Widodo Solo widodo@mandirisek.co.id Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id Achmad Rasyid Bandar Lampung achmad.rasyid@mandirisek.co.id Ravianda Firmanda Bali ravianda.firmanda@mandirisek.co.id INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.